Auston Matthews current rank among NHLers

[Golden_Jet]

Leaf fans aren’t some one giant collective hive mind. I get we all live in the dome of way to many people but we don’t all meet every Sunday and decide what all of our opinions will be that week to piss everyone off.

Are you sure they’re not meeting, just got voted most hated fan base in one poll and most annoying in another one.
Merry Christmas

 

[Xspyrit]

I once again highly suggest you look into reading why Hockey Refernce and other sites who use era adjusted stats are extremely flawed

You really have a hard time to follow... You don't realize that I was using RAW stats in the post you quoted?

Didn't you just put Maurice Richard up as one of the best goalscorers ever earlier in this thread?

So Gretzky was fortunate to play against the goalies and equipment of the 80s but Richard playing in the war depleted years through to 1960 on possibly the best team of all time adjusts in your mind just fine.. ok..

You try to pass off your arguments as being logical and based on "facts" but really they boil down to Richard, Lemieux, and whoever the most recent players are.. yikes.. you need to examine your consistency here.

What? You don't think Maurice Richard was one of the best goals scorer in history? How do you think he built his legend here in Montreal? I live 15 mins away from downtown Montreal and the Habs are my direct rival team as a Sens fan, I would never boost one of their players without reason.

544 goals in 978 games in such a low scoring era was very impressive

From 1943-44 to 1959-60, the Rocket scored 93 more goals than Gordie Howe. The 3rd place Ted Lindsay has 174 goals less in 37 more games...

 

[BraveCanadian]

You really have a hard time to follow... You don't realize that I was using RAW stats in the post you quoted?



What? You don't think Maurice Richard was one of the best goals scorer in history? How do you think he built his legend here in Montreal? I live 15 mins away from downtown Montreal and the Habs are my direct rival team as a Sens fan, I would never boost one of their players without reason.

544 goals in 978 games in such a low scoring era was very impressive

From 1943-44 to 1959-60, the Rocket scored 93 more goals than Gordie Howe. The 3rd place Ted Lindsay has 174 goals less in 37 more games...

The problem isn't so much as saying Richard is one of the best goalscorers ever (especially in the playoffs) as the double standard you use on Gretzky. Richard's 50 in 50 only happened because the league was so weak during the war and he played on an absolutely stacked team through the 50s - which is the argument people always try to use to downplay Gretzky as well.

You also play up Lemieux as faring much better than Gretzky against "90s goaltending" which downplays the fact that Lemieux and Gretzky are only 4 years apart in age, many of the goaltenders in the 90s are the same goaltenders, and conveniently ignores Gretzky's injury history while always giving Lemieux the benefit of the doubt. (obviously, you are not the only one to do this)

Once again, adjusting by league average scoring is a relatively poor way to look at players who are, by definition, the outliers in the sample.

 

[BullyHockey]

He's probably around a top 4-7 player. But honestly there's very little separating guys from say 2-10.

The skill and talent in this era is pretty insane. Reminds me of the late 80s - early 90s era. I wouldn't fault someone for having him in the top 3 nor having him in the bottom 3, so I think 4-7 is a pretty solid place and I think it's more of an indication of how many great players there are in the league today rather than trying to put Matthews down.

Matthews is looking like one of the best goal scorers to ever play the game, provided he stays healthy. The guy is a beast of a player, no doubting that, he's just gotta go out there and prove it in April; which I'm sure he will. Guys like Yzerman were criticized for the same thing; no one remembers your loses when you win; its up to him to get his team to that next level.

 

[Xspyrit]

The problem isn't so much as saying Richard is one of the best goalscorers ever (especially in the playoffs) as the double standard you use on Gretzky. Richard's 50 in 50 only happened because the league was so weak during the war and he played on an absolutely stacked team through the 50s - which is the argument people always try to use to downplay Gretzky as well.

You also play up Lemieux as faring much better than Gretzky against "90s goaltending" which downplays the fact that Lemieux and Gretzky are only 4 years apart in age, many of the goaltenders in the 90s are the same goaltenders, and conveniently ignores Gretzky's injury history while always giving Lemieux the benefit of the doubt. (obviously, you are not the only one to do this)

Once again, adjusting by league average scoring is a relatively poor way to look at players who are, by definition, the outliers in the sample.

I'm not using any double standards, my methodology has been purely mathematical from the start and already mentioned it a few times. My methodology being maths so it can't take into account the fact that Gretzky or Richard played on stacked teams at some point.

Gretzky injury history? Seems very light in comparison to many players, and particularly the guy you're talking about, Mario Lemieux

From 1987-88 (Wayne was just 26) until he retired in 2005-06 at 40 y/o, Lemieux dominated the NHL in (raw) goal scoring with 0.78 GPG.

Neely was 2nd at 0.68 GPG, Bure was 3rd at 0.62 GPG and Gretzky was not even Top-30 (0.41 GPG)

Adjusted or not...

 

[BraveCanadian]

I'm not using any double standards, my methodology has been purely mathematical from the start and already mentioned it a few times. My methodology being maths so it can't take into account the fact that Gretzky or Richard played on stacked teams at some point.

This is rather important. There is a lot that your "purely mathematical" methodology is completely ignoring, and simplistic adjustments by league average are a joke, honestly.

Gretzky injury history? Seems very light in comparison to many players, and particularly the guy you're talking about, Mario Lemieux

While not many players have Lemieux's bad luck (and bad training discipline), Gretzky's back injury was very serious. It is always downplayed but there was a genuine question at one point if it would be career-ending.

From 1987-88 (Wayne was just 26) until he retired in 2005-06 at 40 y/o, Lemieux dominated the NHL in (raw) goal scoring with 0.78 GPG.

Not true. Lemieux wasn't dominating anything as a 40 y/o, and the only reason people cling to per game arguments in his case is that he didn't play many games past his prime whatsoever.. a point you (and others) continue to ignore.

After his age 35 seasons, Lemieux scored a TOTAL of 42 regular season goals.

Neely was 2nd at 0.68 GPG, Bure was 3rd at 0.62 GPG and Gretzky was not even Top-30 (0.41 GPG)

Adjusted or not...

No one cares about per game stats when you continue to compare players with < 1000 games who for all intents and purposes didn't even play after the age of 30 to a guy who played as half the player he was for 8 years until 38 and up to 1400+ games.

If you can't see the problems with that ridiculous per game argument then I don't know what to say.

 

[Strangle]

Are you sure they’re not meeting, just got voted most hated fan base in one poll and most annoying in another one.
Merry Christmas

Ya hate us cause you ain’t us

 

[La Bamba]

He's a tough player to rank... In 21/22, he was a top 3 player and this season he looks like a top 5 guy. Every other season, he's outside the top 10 IMO. He is the best goal scorer in the league in the big picture

 

[authentic]

He's a tough player to rank... In 21/22, he was a top 3 player and this season he looks like a top 5 guy. Every other season, he's outside the top 10 IMO. He is the best goal scorer in the league in the big picture

He’s outside the top 10 in 20-21 when he was runner up for the Hart and Lindsay trophies to McDavid and ran away with the Rocket while missing 4 games?

 

[Namikaze Minato]

He’s outside the top 10 in 20-21 when he was runner up for the Hart and Lindsay trophies to McDavid and ran away with the Rocket while missing 4 games?

Well duh, he has a moustache.

 

[Video Nasty]

He was 17th in PPG last year, currently where Draisaitl ranks this year. Gotta wait and see how the season plays out but I'm curious if people will be justified in moving Draisaitl out of the top 10 if he finishes lower than top 15 in PPG?

Drai has been top 4 in both goals and points for 5 consecutive seasons. It would be unreasonable to move him out of the top 10 so abruptly.

 

[Dion TheFluff]

Drai has been top 4 in both goals and points for 5 consecutive seasons. It would be unreasonable to move him out of the top 10 so abruptly.

just like how it was unreasonable to move Matthews out of the top 10 after back 2 back rockets and finishing 2nd the year before that and finishing back 2 back years as a top 2 finalist for the Hart and Lindsay Trophy last year?

 

[Video Nasty]

just like how it was unreasonable to move Matthews out of the top 10 after back 2 back rockets and finishing 2nd the year before that and finishing back 2 back years as a top 2 finalist for the Hart and Lindsay Trophy last year?

Not really. Matthews was in the midst of a 100 game stretch where he was not a top 5-10 player when the chatter started. Draisaitl began hearing it after about 5 games this season and is still only 30 games into his own more ordinary stretch of play.

 

[Dion TheFluff]

Not really. Matthews was in the midst of a 100 game stretch where he was not a top 5-10 player when the chatter started. Draisaitl began hearing it after about 5 games this season and is still only 30 games into his own more ordinary stretch of play.

what 100 game stretch?
I also mentioned in my original that would it be fair to drop Draisaitl if he maintained this level of play over the full year not just 30 games into the season.

 

[lipstickjunkie]

Matthews' last three seasons before this one: one Hart, one Lindsay, one Hart runner up, one Lindsay runner up, two Rockets. And this year he's at nearly a goal a game 30 games into the season. Yeah, 25th or so seems about right.

 

[Breakers]

Matthews is the easy player to rank
(top 5 in the league)


Marner on the other hand, guy is the epitome of “empty calories”
High price tag
But not a game changer, and not difficult to play against.

 

[Video Nasty]

what 100 game stretch?
I also mentioned in my original that would it be fair to drop Draisaitl if he maintained this level of play over the full year not just 30 games into the season.

Since the conclusion of his 51 goals in 50 games (52 team games) up until the day this thread was made and Matthews began a heater of 12 goals in 7 games that very night.

Final 10 team games of 2021-2022: 2 goals and 7 points in 6 games.

82 team games in 2022-2023: 40 goals and 85 points in 74 games.

First 23 games of 2023-2024: 16 goals and 25 points.

A span of 115 team games where Matthews had 58 goals and 117 points in 103 games played.

During this time span, he was 9th in raw goals, 9th in GPG, 27th in raw points, and 18th in PPG.

Very good numbers, but they don’t scream top 5, and it’s clear why some, including myself, wondered if it was time to move him outside the top 10.

100+ games is a decent enough sample where it made some sense, particularly when some of his most faithful spoke of him losing strength on his shot.

 

[Oscar The Grouch]

He's just an extremely effective skating wrist shot. And not even that in the playoffs.

 

[North Cole]

Sample size of players is way too big and its widely known he played much of last season injured and playing behind a decimated D this season as well (sample size of time is way too small).

How about do among the bigger minute forwards?

Still, Out of the 48 forwards with 1500 minutes the last 2 years (including this one)

30th in CA/60
17th in FA/60
12th in SA/60
4th in GA/60
16th in xGA/60
29th in HDCA/60
Takeaways: 3rd
Blocked Shots: 1st

How about let this season play out and look at the previous 3 total full seasons (which includes the down year)

Out of the 59 forwards with at least 2800 5v5 minutes:

6h in CA/60
4th in FA/60
3rd in SA/60
18th in GA/60
7th in xGA/60
10th in HDCA/60
Takeaways: 1st
Blocked Shots: 1st

to go along with:

Goals/60: 1st
Points/60: 2nd

Overall Shot Differential: 6th
Overall xGF%: 1st
Overall Goal Differential:: 2nd
54% on faceoffs

Damn, 16th in xGA while nearly bottom third in giving up HD chances against and only results in being top 5 in actual GA/60? Sounds like the dude needs to buy his goaltenders a lifetime supply of beers when he's on the ice. Stats do look good when you include his Hart year though, as expected.

 

[wasup]

When I judge who is my top players I try to take a last 3 year or so stand . Then I look at who I would want on my team , not just points .
#1 McD
#2 Makar
#3-5 Kuch Mac Dras . all interchangable
After that there is a group 6 or 7 and Matthews is in about the middle of that group . Bite me .

 

[The90]

Damn, 16th in xGA while nearly bottom third in giving up HD chances against and only results in being top 5 in actual GA/60? Sounds like the dude needs to buy his goaltenders a lifetime supply of beers when he's on the ice. Stats do look good when you include his Hart year though, as expected.

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

Interesting to see Matthews only registers hits at home. Very few on the road.

 

[Fatass]

Interesting to see Matthews only registers hits at home. Very few on the road.

That’s another reason why these types of stats have low reliability. The human inputting the stats flaws the data. At home AM gets credited with hits. The person inputting could be biased, and likely is. This isn’t just about AM though. It’s likely true throughout the league. The human bias in the home rink negatively affects reliability.
Imo AM is a top 15 player, when including D and goalies.

 

[34]

This is the top 5 currently

1 McDavid
2 Matthews
3 MacKinnon
4 Kucherov
5 Makar

Good article here with professional rankings of the top players right now in the NHL

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10096805-ranking-the-nhls-top-25-players-for-2023-24

 

[Regal]

This is the top 5 currently

1 McDavid
2 Matthews
3 MacKinnon
4 Kucherov
5 Makar

Good article here with professional rankings of the top players right now in the NHL

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10096805-ranking-the-nhls-top-25-players-for-2023-24

View attachment 796217

Those professional rankings left Kucherov out of the top 25