Athletic: Dubas Job on the Line this Season (contract expiring after this season)

[TorMapleJays]

Posted on Twitter.

 

[The Masters]

 

[fahad203]

The Leafs organization has become a case study. I mean why not.

But but he's so well spoken. He visits you at the hospital and stuff
Who doesn't love a team that does circles and doesn't hit

I look forward to those circles every game, only to have someone lose the puck at the point for another 2 on 1. Like every game

 

[andora]

Interesting.. i wonder if the following exist

- looking for a fight %
- intending to injure /60
- licks expected relative per 60 scrums

These are factors in hard to play against right?

 

[Puckstuff]

Burke was fired mid-season (January 9th, 2013) as was JFJ, but Nonis and Lou were fired in April within days/weeks of the regular season.

So this provides a bit of hope the firing can happen before the trade deadline and we can go into the deadline with Trotz and Shanahan.

 

[capfit9]

Dubas avoiding talking to the media

 

[Hoglund4MvP]

Its sad being the team that is causing the world to use asterisks on advanced stats.

 

[AllHeartNoSkill]

It kind of feels like they’re using this season to look for any reason they can to justify extending Dubas.

But if they’re NOT confident they’ll extend him, I just assume they get the new GM in place sooner than later and not burn yet another season.

 

[Antropovsky]

ttps://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8ha1TKFMId0&t=1s

Came across this recently while reading a blog. This was from 2015...in hindsight Dubas doesn't look so good here.

Seems he though he had all the answers before he even had the experience. I'm sure that he's learning is that NHL players making millions are a different beast than junior players and AHL players.

 

[sparxx87]

Cmon now. Dwayne Casey being the 'coach of the year' was a joke. That dude SUCKED. Also I've always said that the Raptors could never win a championship with Casey as the coach and Derozan being the 'star' of our team and guess what happened? They won as soon as they got rid of those two.

Also if we're being honest if you look at all the times that the Raps won a playoff series, alot of their opponents were average to trash that they still struggled to beat often because Demar and/or Lowry went into ball chucking hero mode. Thankfully Lowry evolved into being a better player and was less a ball hog when Kawhi was here and they were able to win a championship although it should be noted that the Warriors were missed Durant pretty much the entire series which could've made the difference between winning and losing the championship that year.



You're comparing basketball vs hockey where as you know one or two stars can dominate and help their team vastly more than a couple of stars on a hockey team. Not a fair comparison at all. This is why the Stanley Cup is practically the hardest championship to win in all of sports and why there's so few repeat winners these days.

Dubas certainly did get some good parts when he took over as GM, but it was far from a perfect team and the Leafs prospect pool was pretty mediocre to say the least and he had at least several bad contracts to deal with. The team that he built today obviously isn't perfect, but its still good and is there really any other 'bad' contracts on this team other than Holl?

Also look at the Leafs prospect pool now compared to what it was before he took over? Vastly improved and we actually have a number of them that might end up being on the team in a few years. Compare that to before he took over and you'd be lucky to find even a couple to be excited over because of how poorly the drafting was. So yes Dubas isn't perfect, but he's still done alot of good in building the team for now and for the future. Its just that not everything he's done has panned out the way he hoped and that's normal.



There absolutely was a large degree of luck. If Masai doesn't get the Derozan for Kawhi trade done there is no championship period. If Masai doesn't get rid of Casey there isn't a championship most likely. If Kawhi doesn't report to the Raps they don't win. If Kawhi isn't able to stay healthy for the season and the playoffs they don't win. If Durant doesn't get injured and is able to play the entire finals series, the chances of the Raps winning is much less. So yeah there was a significant degree of luck involved in the Raps winning that year when everything came together just right.

What happened the year after when Kawhi jumped ship? They had nearly the same roster and it resulted in a second round loss and the Raps haven't been close to winning another championship since. So congrats to Masai for making one critical trade that panned out great, but at the time there were plenty of question marks surrounding Kawhi and whether he would report and how he would do on the team.

I'm glad you wrote all of this because you've outlined a lot of important things but void of certain context.

First, Casey for COTY was a bit of a legacy award, for sure, but it came after several seasons where they were a top team in the conference and exceeded expectations of most. I liked Casey. I think he's a great culture setter and a great leader of men.. But he wasn't able to make the necessary adjustments down the stretch of playoff games when his top player wasn't executing. Now, sometimes you need your top player to go out and make some tough shots, but when it wasn't working they just kept going back to it - this isn't a winning strategy.... I say all this to say that while they were patting him on the back and giving his coach a medal, Masai was able to make the tough decision to change direction on a player and a coach he liked. They'd been good but the goal was to be great and win a championship. They had reached their ceiling and changes were inevitably coming, but because they'd built a solid infrastructure with a wealth of quality assets, they were one of the few teams that had the ability to trade for a player like Kawhi and still have a contending team left for him to play on. Also, he was patient and paid a price that made sense for him - reports are that their offer was on the table and the Spurs initially rejected so when Masai told Demar he wouldn't be traded, he believed that. They waited it out and eventually got a top 5 player for a bargain... When Kevin Durant demanded a trade this summer, people immediately went to the Raptors again. Still, flush with quality assets either young or prime age on team friendly contracts, and have all their draft picks... but most importantly, enough that they could pay a massive price for the all time great player and still maintain enough to be a contending team... Again, just not a lot of other teams in that most favorable position - they could have pulled two of them off in what, 4 years? That isn't luck.

Yes, Kevin Durant got hurt, but they were still the best defensive team in the league, had the best playoff defensive rating since the '04 Pistons (much lower scoring era) with a team that included 2 former DPOY's, 10+ all defensive team selections + Fred/Kyle who were both starting calibre two way point guards (two starting C's as well)... and all with their 2nd or 3rd most valuable defender in OG Anunoby out with injury... That 2019 title team was the best defensive team of this era and one of the most underappreciated teams of my lifetime. The depth, versatility, and intangible qualities of that roster was beautiful, one of the strongest 1-8, 9 you'll ever see.

Also, because of the infrastructure in place, after losing Leonard and another starter in Green, they had the depth of talent with players like Siakam, Anunoby, Powell and VanVleet that had earned bigger roles... So when everyone thought they'd fall off, they came back in 19/20 2nd in the NBA and 2nd best defense team - they went down to the wire in round 2, game 7 against a tough Celtics team, even with bubble Siakam who was performing as only a fraction of the player we'd come to know.

We could go on and on for hours and talk about how they critically thought their way through this next period, but in the end, again, they come away looking pretty brilliant. We'll see how good Barnes can be, and if this long boi experiment can yield a championship... but I think many of us trust and believe in it because again, its based on the same pillars and core principles we know are ever present on championship teams - they're trying to add the x factor of physically overwhelming their opponent with length and strength while still maintaining a level of skill at every postion. I see the avenues for its potential success, they could very well be ahead of the curve on this positionless basketball.

Second - Yeah, hockey and basketball are very different, but theres some similarities that incorporate the same basic strategy and fundamentals so we can draw some parallels between the two. 5 on 5 sport where you're attempting to play connected and in sync with your teammates to create angles to open spaces in the defense for an attempt at the goal. On defense, the exact opposite in that you're trying to cut off angles/time/space and maintain the integrity of the defense around your goal as a connected 5 man unit. Within this structure will be a multitude of essentially 1 on 1 plays where the team that wins more of those matchups will likely win the game. Ideally, you load up with as much skill as possible, but because of the salary cap, you aren't going to be able to afford to fill your secondary core and role players with star level talent so you need to be creative. A mix of players with high skill, of course, but other intangible qualities that can create advantages for your team lower in the lineup. These intangible qualities are where we see the Raptors flourish and the Leafs fall consistently short. Offense can go cold in both sports, but when you hang your hat on defense, hard work, competitiveness, toughness, you'll be able to compete against almost anyone. The Raptors do to other teams, what other teams do to the Leafs. They're tougher, more physical, out-work, out-hustle etc etc. This is one of the pillars coach Casey put in place. Masai hired a lesser known coach whose eccentric about basketball and obsessed with winning - he understood the value of the culture they'd built but he offered a little more tactical creativity where they could take a good thing and make it better. No pride, no trying to be smarter than the last guy. Singularly focused on whatever it takes to win.

I don't want to write all this stuff out but if you apply the same logic and critical thinking, you begin to see why the Raptors have built one of the premier organizations by sticking to certain principles while the Leafs stay the punchline to a joke by ignoring them.

Third - Important to consider that May 2018 prospect pool Dubas inherited had just graduated 8-9 players in 16/17.. the one and only draft after saw them secure probably their best young/prospect defenseman in Liljegren... No matter how you twist it, Dubas inherited an organization flush with young talent. I'm not even advocating for Hunter, but lets try to be honest and accurate if we're trying to take inventory.

Jury is still out with his drafting, but seems to lack the same sort of intangibles I've outlined in competitiveness, toughness, physicality etc. Players that are undersized need to be exceptionally skilled and great skaters. If you're a poor skater and don't have the length or strength to compensate, you're going to find yourself completely outmatched in some of these one-on-one scenarios. Kind of like we're seeing with Rasmus Sandin over and over. Not only are you not creating many advantages, but you're actually an easy target for the other team to try and create for their team. Thats not good.

At least some of us raised concern when he was hired that he lacked the experience to understand the intrinsic values of a hockey player. Right out of the gate he paid $11M for a player that would be on his second line when, as mentioned, several ELC's soon needed raises including 3 pretty massive ones... People questioned whether he'd be able to afford to keep all the young talent - the fact that he actually went out and signed a free agent that created the need to slowly purge all this quality young depth was inexplicable... and then he waived a serviceable veteran backup goalie in favor of a minor leaguer. If he couldn't distinguish an NHL player from a minor league one, how do you really think he's going to build a winning team? What should be really easy, chapter 1, $100 question type stuff, and he fumbles. Over and over again. We could come up with dozens at this point.



Perhaps most telling were the attentive hockey fans who were Leaf haters. That 16/17 team had some people worried they were going to be a problem for the next decade and would inevitably break through for a cup or two.... but then they hired Kyle Dubas. The main boards literally had people posting about how they're relieved the Leafs found a way to screw it up. Friends who hate the Leafs, just laughing... It was a literal joke for anyone that could see what was about to happen.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Dubas avoiding talking to the media

Actually I'm glad he is or it would be the same bs, "they care deeply", "I believe in this team", "they believe in eachother "

Muzzin has been saying it for years

 

[The Masters]

Interesting.. i wonder if the following exist

- looking for a fight %
- intending to injure /60
- licks expected relative per 60 scrums

These are factors in hard to play against right?

toughness isn't on dubas' radar. hockey isn't baseball.

 

[GQS]

First, Casey for COTY was a bit of a legacy award, for sure, but it came after several seasons where they were a top team in the conference and exceeded expectations of most. I liked Casey. I think he's a great culture setter and a great leader of men.. But he wasn't able to make the necessary adjustments down the stretch of playoff games when his top player wasn't executing. Now, sometimes you need your top player to go out and make some tough shots, but when it wasn't working they just kept going back to it - this isn't a winning strategy.... I say all this to say that while they were patting him on the back and giving his coach a medal, Masai was able to make the tough decision to change direction on a player and a coach he liked.

I seriously don't know how he won COTY other than the Raps doing well that year with their talent and he got credit for it. In the playoffs though, he was HORRIBLE and the Raps were winning games DESPITE his stupid play calling and rotations. Look at how Casey's doing without a good team for him to coach these days in Detroit.

As I said good on Masai for taking a leap by trading Demar for Kawhi, but that move could've went either really good or really bad and thankfully it went the best way possible. If it went completely horrible we'd be criticising Masai for risking it all and losing Derozan for very little long term return.

They'd been good but the goal was to be great and win a championship. They had reached their ceiling and changes were inevitably coming, but because they'd built a solid infrastructure with a wealth of quality assets, they were one of the few teams that had the ability to trade for a player like Kawhi and still have a contending team left for him to play on.

What wealth of assets? The year the Raps won the championship it was mostly Kawhi, Lowry and Siakam leading the way with a few good players and a bunch of bench warmers. Thankfully with how great an impact good players can make on every game, the Raps could win with the big three and a decent supporting cast. However once we lost Kawhi we haven't been the same since and we went from a championship winning team with some luck to merely a playoff team at best.

Yes, Kevin Durant got hurt, but they were still the best defensive team in the league, had the best playoff defensive rating since the '04 Pistons (much lower scoring era) with a team that included 2 former DPOY's, 10+ all defensive team selections + Fred/Kyle who were both starting calibre two way point guards (two starting C's as well)... and all with their 2nd or 3rd most valuable defender in OG Anunoby out with injury... That 2019 title team was the best defensive team of this era and one of the most underappreciated teams of my lifetime. The depth, versatility, and intangible qualities of that roster was beautiful, one of the strongest 1-8, 9 you'll ever see.

The Warriors losing Durant is MASSIVE and the Raps were lucky that year that he wasn't healthy or else the chance of the Raps winning would've been much more bleak. We're talking about one of the greatest players in the NBA being out who could play 40+ minutes and could turn the tide of any game. Teams have to play with the players that they have who are healthy, but lets not pretend that the Raps didn't dodge a HUGE bullet that would've overwhelmingly tipped the scales into the Warrior's favor to win if Durant was healthy.

Losing Durant for the Warriors is the same as the Raps losing Kawhi for the series. They could still compete, but it would be a huge uphill battle.

Also, because of the infrastructure in place, after losing Leonard and another starter in Green, they had the depth of talent with players like Siakam, Anunoby, Powell and VanVleet that had earned bigger roles... So when everyone thought they'd fall off, they came back in 19/20 2nd in the NBA and 2nd best defense team - they went down to the wire in round 2, game 7 against a tough Celtics team, even with bubble Siakam who was performing as only a fraction of the player we'd come to know.

The Raps were still a good team after losing Kawhi, but they were definitely no longer a frontrunner for another championship and they haven't been close ever since. Hopefully Barnes will turn into the next star/superstar for us and Koloko is looking pretty decent so far as well so maybe this team can be a serious contender again sooner rather than later.

Second - Yeah, hockey and basketball are very different, but theres some similarities that incorporate the same basic strategy and fundamentals so we can draw some parallels between the two.

There are very few parallels between basketball and hockey for the very simple reason with how much star players in the NBA make such a massive difference compared to a star player in the NHL. Having a prime Lebron or any other superstar player on your team will have a much larger impact than having the best NHL player on your team ever will. The two sports cannot be compared when your superstar NBA player can play the entire game if need be and dominate and influence the whole game while your best NHL player no matter how good he is is still one part of an entire team.

In his prime Lebron was averaging 40+ mins in the playoffs which means he was having an impact on the court for 85%+ of the game. There's nothing comparable to that in the NHL outside of your goalie. So if your goalie is playing out of their mind, then yeah that's the only way that one player in the NHL can have a comparable impact on the game as much as one superstar on an NBA team. However things become even less comparable when an NBA team has more than one star player then there is very little you can compare between the NHL and NBA.

Third - Important to consider that May 2018 prospect pool Dubas inherited had just graduated 8-9 players in 16/17.. the one and only draft after saw them secure probably their best young/prospect defenseman in Liljegren... No matter how you twist it, Dubas inherited an organization flush with young talent. I'm not even advocating for Hunter, but lets try to be honest and accurate if we're trying to take inventory.

In 2016/17 Nylander and Marner graduated from the minors and just completed their first full season along with Matthews who was drafted that year. Who else did the Leafs have that was good in their prospect pool at the time? I haven't looked through the entire list, but how many prospects did they draft that became a decent player for the Leafs past the 1st round?

Jury is still out with his drafting, but seems to lack the same sort of intangibles I've outlined in competitiveness, toughness, physicality etc. Players that are undersized need to be exceptionally skilled and great skaters. If you're a poor skater and don't have the length or strength to compensate, you're going to find yourself completely outmatched in some of these one-on-one scenarios. Kind of like we're seeing with Rasmus Sandin over and over. Not only are you not creating many advantages, but you're actually an easy target for the other team to try and create for their team. Thats not good.

We won't know how many of Dubas' draft picks will turn out for a few years yet, but at least a number of them are showing good promise which is not something we could say for the Leafs prospect pool in years past. If even a few of them like Knies turn into something really good, then I would consider Dubas' drafting to be pretty good if not very good.

At least some of us raised concern when he was hired that he lacked the experience to understand the intrinsic values of a hockey player. Right out of the gate he paid $11M for a player that would be on his second line when, as mentioned, several ELC's soon needed raises including 3 pretty massive ones...

The thing is how many people at the time were saying that signing Tavares was a bad move? A star centre giving you a one two punch of Matthews and Tavares looked great to go along with rising talented players in Nylander and Marner. The only thing people questioned to a degree was the 11 million to get him.

Heck how about Stamkos a couple of years earlier? Leafs were willing to open the wallet for him as well and it probably would've taken 9-10 million at the time to get him so 1-2 million less than Tavares because it was two years earlier and we'd be in the same position. How many people would've called that a 'bad signing'?

It was a risk to sign Tavares, but I don't know how you don't take it when he was out there as a UFA and looked like he could really push the Leafs further. Right now Tavares hasn't been a complete success, but its not like he's been a complete failure as well. He's been a strong player and it looks like he can play out the rest of his contract still being a good player so while he hasn't been the game changer that we hoped, he's still not a disappointment.

Perhaps most telling were the attentive hockey fans who were Leaf haters. That 16/17 team had some people worried they were going to be a problem for the next decade and would inevitably break through for a cup or two.... but then they hired Kyle Dubas. The main boards literally had people posting about how they're relieved the Leafs found a way to screw it up. Friends who hate the Leafs, just laughing... It was a literal joke for anyone that could see what was about to happen.

I'm not convinced that a different GM would be performing better than Dubas. Maybe they would have, but would that different GM have gotten the Leafs out of the 1st round of the playoffs? Maybe, but that would've likely been having luck on their side and having the Leafs winning a game 7 once or twice out of all the chances they had.

 

[GQS]

Leafs had 3 seasons with Kadri and Hyman and we couldn't get out of the 1st round with them. And who wanted to pay Hyman his current contract? Marchment yeah it would've been nice to keep him and have him still be a Leaf, but he had one good season with the Panthers and he turned it into a 4.5 million payday with the Stars so how would the Leafs have kept him? As for Bush he was decent and it would've been nice to keep him, but he got a nice raise as well and someone would've had to take at least Holl off our hands to keep him.

 

[andora]

Leafs had 3 seasons with Kadri and Hyman and we couldn't get out of the 1st round with them. And who wanted to pay Hyman his current contract? Marchment yeah it would've been nice to keep him and have him still be a Leaf, but he had one good season with the Panthers and he turned it into a 4.5 million payday with the Stars so how would the Leafs have kept him? As for Bush he was decent and it would've been nice to keep him, but he got a nice raise as well and someone would've had to take at least Holl off our hands to keep him.

At some point for the simple concept of continuity you need to decide to keep someone - i mean at some point it also starts to look like a bad trend

Our entire process is built on continuity except for foot soldiers

 

[Trapper]

Leafs had 3 seasons with Kadri and Hyman and we couldn't get out of the 1st round with them. And who wanted to pay Hyman his current contract? Marchment yeah it would've been nice to keep him and have him still be a Leaf, but he had one good season with the Panthers and he turned it into a 4.5 million payday with the Stars so how would the Leafs have kept him? As for Bush he was decent and it would've been nice to keep him, but he got a nice raise as well and someone would've had to take at least Holl off our hands to keep him.

If we had all these guys and couldn’t win, then didn’t have them and couldn’t win, then changed coaches, goalies, D, depth and couldn’t win, what’s left?
Where could the problem be that people aren’t looking?

 

[The Masters]

Leafs had 3 seasons with Kadri and Hyman and we couldn't get out of the 1st round with them. And who wanted to pay Hyman his current contract? Marchment yeah it would've been nice to keep him and have him still be a Leaf, but he had one good season with the Panthers and he turned it into a 4.5 million payday with the Stars so how would the Leafs have kept him? As for Bush he was decent and it would've been nice to keep him, but he got a nice raise as well and someone would've had to take at least Holl off our hands to keep him.

Those intangibles of those players were not replaced. It also kind of sucks that all 3/4 left the org. and blossomed. That says something.

 

[Gabriel426]

Posted on Twitter. View attachment 601468

Someone typed this up? Did Hunter do this? Lol

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

Someone typed this up? Did Hunter do this? Lol

They typed it up, hit print, then took a photo of it with their phone. If only the document was already on a computer to begin with lol

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

At some point for the simple concept of continuity you need to decide to keep someone - i mean at some point it also starts to look like a bad trend

Our entire process is built on continuity except for foot soldiers

How can there be unity on this team when it's basically Haves and Have nots? You have 1/3 of the team depart every year and we wonder why the lower paid guys aren't hitting and gritting a bit extra to make up for the fab 4.

 

[Gabriel426]

Leafs had 3 seasons with Kadri and Hyman and we couldn't get out of the 1st round with them. And who wanted to pay Hyman his current contract? Marchment yeah it would've been nice to keep him and have him still be a Leaf, but he had one good season with the Panthers and he turned it into a 4.5 million payday with the Stars so how would the Leafs have kept him? As for Bush he was decent and it would've been nice to keep him, but he got a nice raise as well and someone would've had to take at least Holl off our hands to keep him.

Well we have JT, AM, MM, Reilly and Willie together and couldn’t past the 1st round in 4 straight playoffs.
What does that say about them?

They typed it up, hit print, then took a photo of it with their phone. If only the document was already on a computer to begin with lol

That’s why I said, it is is Hunter bc it got to be someone older who ain’t familiar with using their phone to type, lol.

 

[Gabriel426]

How can there be unity on this team when it's basically Haves and Have nots? You have 1/3 of the team depart every year and we wonder why the lower paid guys aren't hitting and gritting a bit extra to make up for the fab 4.

It is not about haves and have nots but more to do with top guys leading the charge.
Coleman, Goodrow, Paul had great playoffs bc guys like Point, Kuch, Hedman…were leading the charge whether on the scoreboard or every shift.
Look at how TB as whole played against us. It is automatic for them to block shots, finishes their checks, stand up opposing players on the blue lines, making simple plays to get the puck out of the zone… same can be said about the Avs with Mack, Landy, and Makar.
The top guys got to lead by example, once that happens, the others will follow.
I have yet to see our top guys do that in the playoffs.

 

[andora]

How can there be unity on this team when it's basically Haves and Have nots? You have 1/3 of the team depart every year and we wonder why the lower paid guys aren't hitting and gritting a bit extra to make up for the fab 4.

i agree with this in sentiment - i mean at the end of the day it creates two teams long term as so many keep rotating out.. it could change as the prospects start integrating themselves full time and their second deals go mid term and relatively good % - but rotating out so much how do you play for the other guy

It is not about haves and have nots but more to do with top guys leading the charge.
Coleman, Goodrow, Paul had great playoffs bc guys like Point, Kuch, Hedman…were leading the charge whether on the scoreboard or every shift.
Look at how TB as whole played against us. It is automatic for them to block shots, finishes their checks, stand up opposing players on the blue lines, making simple plays to get the puck out of the zone… same can be said about the Avs with Mack, Landy, and Makar.
The top guys got to lead by example, once that happens, the others will follow.
I have yet to see our top guys do that in the playoffs.

it's both - i mean they are people - all it takes is for a couple guys to look across the room and and see the studs and think, well they will be back next year no wonder they don't seem stressed (AS AN EXAMPLE NOT STATEMENT) - i mean the easy reply could be going through old rosters of lots of successful teams and pointing out the turnover - few last forever, however it feels different with toronto as a necessity to be that way cause of $$... in my opinion

 

[Leafs87]

Posted on Twitter. View attachment 601468

I am sorry if this is your work but for something posted to twitter it has many very clear grammatical issues and typos/players named misspelled.

SDA is misspelled to a point of no recognition