Confirmed with Link: Athanasiou signed 1/$1.3875m

Redder Winger

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May 4, 2017
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I'll explain this slow, because it seems you need it to be explained this way: Stats aren't scalable in hockey. Kane's 20 min TOI/g is different than AA's 15 TOI/g. Kane faces a team's best players night in and night out. AA doesn't. The reason why you can scale in baseball is because all players in a given game will likely face the same defenders and same pitchers. You can atomize each play to pitch, contact, defensive play, and base running. A pitcher throws the ball, the batter hits it, a defender makes a play, and the batter runs. Each can be easily measured and each is the sum of individual interactions with the baseball. Hockey isn't nearly that simple, and cannot be atomized and comparisons between players cannot be easily made. Kane will play against Drew Doughty, Shea Weber, Sidney Crosby and Steven Stamkoses. AA plays against 2nd and 3rd line talent and 2nd and 3rd pairing defenders most of the time. As such to abstract a hockey player down to stats is not only completely ignorant to the game, but is intellectually dishonest.


Quit making these forced comparisons. AA has looked good in the last few games, lets be happy about that, he's not Patty Kane, Sidney Crosby or Steve Stamkos, because at AA's age they were all players that had PPG seasons, or 120 point seasons or 40+ goal seasons. In fact, in their 19 year old seasons they each had more points in that season than AA had in his whole career as a 24 year old.

SO one last time, AA has looked good when he first joined the team and the last 3-4 games, comparing him to generational players just makes you look like a slappy.

If you think anyone is comparing Athanasiou to Crosby or Matthews, that's your own fault.

All the numbers do is show that his production is in elite company.

The numbers suggest that there's a fair special talent here and that we're not utilizing it very well.
 

Shaman464

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If you think anyone is comparing Athanasiou to Crosby or Matthews, that's your own fault.

All the numbers do is show that his production is in elite company.

The numbers suggest that there's a fair special talent here and that we're not utilizing it very well.

No it doesn't he was 149th last year in p/60. That's not elite company. You are cherry picking stats, disincluding players and using weird criteria to make your case. By your logic Mike Hoffman is an elite talent because he was 25th in p/60 last season. Conor Sheary had a better goals per 60 last season than AA in similar minutes, is he a special talent? I can go all night with players who get 2nd/3rd line minutes who have as good or better goals or points per 60 than the truly elite players. AA isn't utilized wrong, I would argue based on everything stats teaches us about hockey, his per 60 minute production will drop with more time, and as such he likely is best utilized as a middle 6 player.
 

Shaman464

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If you think anyone is comparing Athanasiou to Crosby or Matthews, that's your own fault.

All the numbers do is show that his production is in elite company.

The numbers suggest that there's a fair special talent here and that we're not utilizing it very well.

>Claims no one is comparing AA to Crosby/Matthews

>Goes on to make that comparison.

Okay.
 

TatarTangle

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Sep 28, 2011
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AA is screwed when teams catch on that one of the few plays the Wings have is the high dump, hail mary to him. He has looked a ton better though and I hope he keeps it up and Blashill continues to play him with Larkin so he can grow as a player, AA is the type of player that needs to be surrounded by talent.
 

Shaman464

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AA is screwed when teams catch on that one of the few plays the Wings have is the high dump, hail mary to him. He has looked a ton better though and I hope he keeps it up and Blashill continues to play him with Larkin so he can grow as a player, AA is the type of player that needs to be surrounded by talent.

He's an amazing complementary piece. He's a spiritual successor to Franzen in that way. But the over the top cherry picking of stats to make him seem elite, when he's not, is just crazy.
 

Redder Winger

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No it doesn't he was 149th last year in p/60. That's not elite company. You are cherry picking stats, disincluding players and using weird criteria to make your case. By your logic Mike Hoffman is an elite talent because he was 25th in p/60 last season. Conor Sheary had a better goals per 60 last season than AA in similar minutes, is he a special talent? I can go all night with players who get 2nd/3rd line minutes who have as good or better goals or points per 60 than the truly elite players. AA isn't utilized wrong, I would argue based on everything stats teaches us about hockey, his per 60 minute production will drop with more time, and as such he likely is best utilized as a middle 6 player.


He was 56th in Points/60 last year (600 minutes or more)
He was 35th in primary points/60.
(at 5 on 5)
Last year, AA was 11th in G/60
The guys ahead of him
Rakell, Oshie, Matthews, Skinner, Grabner, Crosby, lee, Malkin, Kane and JVR.

When you say AA isn't utilized wrong, how do you mean?
Are you saying he should be used like he's been used over the last 4-5 games?
Or the previous 10-15 games?
Because they're worlds apart.
 

Redder Winger

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He's an amazing complementary piece. He's a spiritual successor to Franzen in that way. But the over the top cherry picking of stats to make him seem elite, when he's not, is just crazy.


At 23 years old, Johan Franzen scored 12 goals for Linkopings in Sweden. We went on to play another year in the SEL before coming to North America and spending two years as a third and fourth liner before getting hot when Holmstrom got hurt.

I good comparison MIGHT be Grabner...
A speedy guy who might score 34 goals with one team, in one system, and nine with another.

Personally, I think AA has better hands. But Grabner could be his ceiling IF he doesn't grow as a player.
 

Shaman464

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He was 56th in Points/60 last year (600 minutes or more)
He was 35th in primary points/60.
(at 5 on 5)
Last year, AA was 11th in G/60
The guys ahead of him
Rakell, Oshie, Matthews, Skinner, Grabner, Crosby, lee, Malkin, Kane and JVR.

When you say AA isn't utilized wrong, how do you mean?
Are you saying he should be used like he's been used over the last 4-5 games?
Or the previous 10-15 games?
Because they're worlds apart.

It isn't how he's been utilized that's been the problem, its him giving a shit on the ice. Its worlds different the games where he tries and the ones where he just coasts.

And why cut it off at 600 minutes? That seems really arbitrary, why not at 1000... oh wait, then you'd not include AA. And again you keep missing the primary point, p/60 isn't scaleable. You're currently using it like it's plate appearances in baseball, where diminishing returns are much less severe. p/60, which is exactly why you decided to put a cutoff at 600 minutes, is affected pretty dramatically by the scaling issue, and players are likely to see that p/60 drop as their minutes increase.
 

Shaman464

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At 23 years old, Johan Franzen scored 12 goals for Linkopings in Sweden. We went on to play another year in the SEL before coming to North America and spending two years as a third and fourth liner before getting hot when Holmstrom got hurt.

I good comparison MIGHT be Grabner...
A speedy guy who might score 34 goals with one team, in one system, and nine with another.

Personally, I think AA has better hands. But Grabner could be his ceiling IF he doesn't grow as a player.

And Grabner at 23 scored 34 goals, twice the number AA had. The comparison was the role and streakiness, not the play style. AA isn't a core piece, he's a complementary piece that will play as good as he chooses to play and the system he plays in. As that kind of piece hes pretty great. He's not elite though, by any stretch. As for Grabner, I think its a stretch to think AA will ever have over 30 goals in a season, and to say he has better hands? At AA's age Grabner already had a 34 goal season. So, to say AA has better hands would be factually hard to support.
 

Redder Winger

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AA isn't a core piece, he's a complementary piece that will play as good as he chooses to play and the system he plays in.

People said the same thing about Datsyuk at 23.
We'll see.

I think he's got the legs and the skill to be more than a complimentary piece.

I think he's shown a lot of that in the last week or so.
 

Redder Winger

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It isn't how he's been utilized that's been the problem, its him giving a **** on the ice. Its worlds different the games where he tries and the ones where he just coasts.

And why cut it off at 600 minutes? That seems really arbitrary, why not at 1000... oh wait, then you'd not include AA. And again you keep missing the primary point, p/60 isn't scaleable. You're currently using it like it's plate appearances in baseball, where diminishing returns are much less severe. p/60, which is exactly why you decided to put a cutoff at 600 minutes, is affected pretty dramatically by the scaling issue, and players are likely to see that p/60 drop as their minutes increase.

There's no reason it's not scaleable.

He's been a good producer three years running now.

At some point, you're just pissing in the wind.
 

Frk It

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There's no reason it's not scaleable.

He's been a good producer three years running now.

At some point, you're just pissing in the wind.

There's a lot of reasons it's not scaleable. Or do you think they could play him 21 minutes a night, and he would lead the league in scoring, and they're just choosing not to?

I'm sure the Red Wings know all his per/60 numbers. I'm sure they were brought up and repeated in the contract negotiations with his agent.
 

Redder Winger

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There's a lot of reasons it's not scaleable. Or do you think they could play him 21 minutes a night, and he would lead the league in scoring, and they're just choosing not to?

I'm sure the Red Wings know all his per/60 numbers. I'm sure they were brought up and repeated in the contract negotiations with his agent.

Take a look at the way he's played this year when he plays more minutes.

Actually, take a look at his career numbers when he's played more minutes.

He does well.
 

BinCookin

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Feb 15, 2012
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Redder.... We get it, you like AA.

He is not Crosby...

Plus... We are giving him lots of ice time now... lets see how this goes. You cant give him much more ice time last 5GP about.
 

Redder Winger

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Redder.... We get it, you like AA.

He is not Crosby...

Plus... We are giving him lots of ice time now... lets see how this goes. You cant give him much more ice time last 5GP about.

I love that they are giving him icetime lately and the way he responded.
I don't love that his icetime got cut in the third period yesterday, but whatever.

Someone in the top 6 has to come out.
Bertuzzi.
Mantha.
Athanasiou.

You know it be Z or Larkin and probably won't be Tatar or Nyquist. Especially because the way Blash uses the Nielsen line, whoever gets busted down is busted down to L4.

And really, this all goes to hell when Glendening gets back. Because then he goes to L4 or Abby or Helm go to L4, and that changes the complexion of the line.

Personally, I'd shoot for:
Zetterberg Larkin Nyquist
Bertuzzi Athanasiou Mantha
Frk Nielsen Tatar
Abdelkader Glendening Helm
 

TatarTangle

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He's an amazing complementary piece. He's a spiritual successor to Franzen in that way. But the over the top cherry picking of stats to make him seem elite, when he's not, is just crazy.
I agree on all accounts. AA is the most dangerous when he doesn't have the puck. I don't mean to sound like I'm knocking the kid but the less he has to think and the more he can react to the play, the better it is for everyone.
 

Henkka

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Jan 31, 2004
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There's a lot of reasons it's not scaleable. Or do you think they could play him 21 minutes a night, and he would lead the league in scoring, and they're just choosing not to?

I'm sure the Red Wings know all his per/60 numbers. I'm sure they were brought up and repeated in the contract negotiations with his agent.

It's interesting.

I remember watching these Athanasiou's per/60 numbers from earlier seasons. They were really high, when he had a low ice-time. Of course that kind of stats could be flawed.

But Athanasiou has now had 2 game stints during this season where he plays +18:30 minutes per game. Total of 8 games. On those he has scored 7+3=10 points, is +4 and has had 34 shots on goal. His average Ice-time in these 8 games has been 20:31.

That shot rate would be highest in NHL of +20min players per min and his shot accuracy would be 20.6% from these games with high ice-time. Those are insane numbers, of course, small sample size, but there would be some gap to regress, and still match with top players.

Currently that scoring with +20min icetime would match pretty well what Brad Marchand is doing at this season.
 
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Shaman464

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It's interesting.

I remember watching these Athanasiou's per/60 numbers from earlier seasons. They were really high, when he had a low ice-time. Of course that kind of stats could be flawed.

But Athanasiou has now had 2 game stints during this season where he plays +18:30 minutes per game. Total of 8 games. On those he has scored 7+3=10 points, is +4 and has had 34 shots on goal. His average Ice-time in these 8 games has been 20:31.

That shot rate would be highest in NHL of +20min players per min and his shot accuracy would be 20.6% from these games with high ice-time. Those are insane numbers, of course, small sample size, but there would be some gap to regress, and still match with top players.

Currently that scoring with +20min icetime would match pretty well what Brad Marchand is doing at this season.

The issue is his ice time is directly proportional to how hard he is trying. When he's coasting and not giving a shit, he drops in the lineup. But the sample size argument gets to the Eva Unit Zero territory ala Hudler (same way Redder is with AA, for those who don't remember EUZ), where Eva would take 5-10 game stretches of Hudlers season and talk about him being a 100 point scorer.
 

Frk It

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I like Athanasiou. but Athanasiou doesn't really do the things a forward should do for a coach to give him 20 minutes consistently. So I'm doubting we will see that. Kind of like what we saw with Hudler, despite always being very productive in limited minutes here.
 

Henkka

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I just wonder why AA has had this kind of stints. One 3-game stint in November and now a 5-game stint. Outside of those stints, he never saw more than 15 minutes. It almost looks that they are just testing him and his abilities, but doesn't want to go full-blast. Imo, I would suspect a TANK going on.

It wasn't because of his coasting in many games. I remember good games and that IT was still just 12 mins. When his production adds up, almost like multiplies, when he is getting more minutes, it really mind-boggling.
 

avssuc

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The issue is his ice time is directly proportional to how hard he is trying.

I agree with aspects of both sides here. As I mentioned prior, Ysebaert 2.0 would be my bet.

Thing is, I can't trust that his play is the only factor that influenced ice time in the lead up to RFA. I think both sides can agree on that.
 

Winger98

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I just wonder why AA has had this kind of stints. One 3-game stint in November and now a 5-game stint. Outside of those stints, he never saw more than 15 minutes. It almost looks that they are just testing him and his abilities, but doesn't want to go full-blast. Imo, I would suspect a TANK going on.

It wasn't because of his coasting in many games. I remember good games and that IT was still just 12 mins. When his production adds up, almost like multiplies, when he is getting more minutes, it really mind-boggling.

That sounds more like a coach trying to make his point to a guy who just doesn't get it. He coasts for a few games, then decides to show up, but Blashill's like, "yeah, that's nice. Now do it for another game or two, show this is going to be the norm rather than the exception, and then we'll start talking about upping your ice time."
There might be stuff going on that we don't see, too. If he dogs it in practice every day, he's begging to ride the bench during the game.
 

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