ATD2011 Rene Lecavalier Finals: (1) Ottawa Senators vs. (2) Inglewood Jacks

[BraveCanadian]

The biggest mismatch by far in this series is in goal. Joseph might be the worst starting goalie in the ATD, whereas the argument can be made Plante is the best. This is more than enough to swing a series (a la Boston vs. Philly this year).

I'm big on the theory that Joseph was a strong playoff goalie who often carried underdog teams farther than they deserved and then took the blame (at least from some people) when they got overwhelmed by even stronger teams - but even with that in mind - Jacques Plante is Jacques Plante, and you have the edge in goal handily.

Finally, their first line. We feel that Tikkanen is the perfect foil to Jagr. Jagr is a guy who has a reputation as a head case and Tikkanen was better than anyone at getting in people's heads. Jagr should be spending a decent amount of time in the penalty box just out of frustration. No one can totally stop Jagr, but I think having one of the best pests of all time will certainly help us at least slow him down better than most teams are capable of.

I hadn't thought about this but yeah, I could see some shadowing by Tik getting to Jagr hahaha As you pointed out though, no one can fully stop a determined Jagr. The only question with him is, as always, how determined is he? Mercurial like Nilsson in that way.

 

[BraveCanadian]

I feel like I'm shooting fish in a barrel here. Nilsson's pretty widely considered a playoff disappointment. Let's take a more detailed look at Nilsson's NHL playoff career.

1980 - zero points in 4 games.

1981 - Nilsson continued his regular season scoring with 8 points in 3 games against Chicago in the first round. But he would only score 4 points in the next two rounds, playing 11 games. In his defence, he suffered a shoulder injury in the third round against the North Stars. But even in the second round, the Montreal Gazette wrote:

1982 - No goals and three assists in a three game sweep.

Going into the 1983 playoffs, Nilsson was widely considered to have been a playoff disappoinment to date.

Steve Simmons in the Calgary Herald:




Al MacNeil was interviewed on the Flames 1981 team. He doesn't mention Nilsson by name but it's hard not to read this as referring at least in part to Nilsson.



Nilsson scored a goal and twelve points in 9 games in the 1983 playoffs. He initially impressed.


It's also worth noting the following quote:

Apparently some attributes were lacking when Nilsson played centre - most likely defensive play.

1984 - Nilsson was injured

1985 - one assist in three games. Nilsson was slammed for this performance, and was traded in the offseason.

Source:

Nilsson became a bit of a punch line in Calgary after this series.

A historical look at the Battle of Alberta:

The reference to the Oilers is the 1983 playoff series - the year when Nilsson had 12 points in 9 games.

1987 - Nilsson scored 19 points in 21 games as the Oilers won the Stanley Cup. This run helped Nilsson's reputation a lot. But:

1. Nilsson was playing LW. He's a C in this series, with the added responsibility that carries.
2. Nilsson was playing on a line with Messier and Anderson, two playoff performers for the ages.
3. Nilsson only scored 19 points in 21 games, while his linemates scored scored 28 and 27 points. It's pretty clear who the driving forces were on that line.
4. 2 of Nilsson's 6 goals were empty-net goals in the final minute of one game.

In Nilsson's defence, he won't be facing the other team's best unit this time. But this is the ATD. Ottawa's lower lines and bottom pairings are full of players who were first liners and shutdown defenders in their prime in the NHL. I don't think it's going to get any easier for him.

Certainly reinforces a lot of Nilsson's reputation when relied upon as "the guy" in the playoffs, but he isn't "the guy" here. I still think that not being a 1st stringer means they will at least get something out of him. A guy so talented as to be able to coast his way to almost a PPG in the NHL playoffs ain't so terrible in support.

 

[arrbez]

Certainly reinforces a lot of Nilsson's reputation when relied upon as "the guy" in the playoffs, but he isn't "the guy" here. I still think that not being a 1st stringer means they will at least get something out of him. A guy so talented as to be able to coast his way to almost a PPG in the NHL playoffs ain't so terrible in support.

He's a guy we're going to lean on a lot more on special teams than even strength. And that's an area where he excelled throughout his career, and where his sublime offensive talents can be extremely effective playing with guys like Kerr and Gadsby.

 

[arrbez]

Also, sorry for being away for a while there, but I'm back now.

Vicens and myself were discussing another small lineup shift, and we've decided to go through with it. We'll be moving Sutter to centre, and putting Madden on LW. Jagr is obviously the forward we're most concerned with, and we like having Madden on that side, especially since Madden is equally adept at LW, and Sutter was more of a C than a winger.

Madden - Sutter - Fleming

 

[overpass]

Inglewood certainly has the edge in goal. But Joseph is not the worst starter in this. He was among the best goaltenders in the league for over a decade, starting in best on best series, and he had a good playoff reputation. His reputation took a hit at the end of his career when he never managed to lift the Cup. I think he has the team here that he never had in the NHL - one that can win a championship. Jacques Plante is also trying to do something in this draft that he never did in his career - beat a higher seeded team in the playoffs.

 

[overpass]

Simpson was considered the best defenceman in the West at his peak. I'd rather have him at 155 lbs than a heavier weight - apparently he gained weight and slowed down after going East. But he still stuck around in the NHL until he was the oldest player in the league at age 37, so his defensive game couldn't have been that bad. In any case, he is my team's 6th best defensive defenceman. Every team has one. His main responsibilities are to play the power play and face easier matchups at even strength.

 

[overpass]

Your first line sets up pretty well for a matchup against ours. But I don't know if it's enough. For one, Zetterberg has a pretty amazing playoff record at this point, especially at the specific task of winning the battle with the opposing centre. I won't concede a "decent" edge to Delvecchio there. They will also have to chase that matchup in road games. Finally, Tikkanen, Delvecchio, and Darragh were all supporting forwards on their line for most of their careers and for their playoff success. They don't have a Gretzky, Messier, Hower, or Nighbor now. My line does have Jagr, along with a couple of guys with the talent to play as the best player on a line and the ability to adapt to a supporting role.

 

[overpass]

Certainly reinforces a lot of Nilsson's reputation when relied upon as "the guy" in the playoffs, but he isn't "the guy" here. I still think that not being a 1st stringer means they will at least get something out of him. A guy so talented as to be able to coast his way to almost a PPG in the NHL playoffs ain't so terrible in support.

He's on a supporting line, yes, although it's a line that needs to score. But he is the centre and main offensive catalyst for the line. His success in 1987 came playing LW with two HOFers and all-time playoff performers. I think the role he's in now is closer to the role he failed in.

 

[overpass]

Well, I think I've made my arguments for this one.

To sum up, my main argument is that Ottawa has a lineup of forwards better suited to scoring in the playoffs than Inglewood.

Good luck to my opponents, may the best team win!

I've also added a section to my Joe Simpson bio about the Simpson-Nighbor trade that fell through in the summer of 1924. It gives some perspective on how highly Simpson was regarded at the time, and should be a good read for anyone interested in hockey from that era.

 

[Velociraptor]

Game 1:
Jagr is lights out, scores two early goals. Plante regains confidence. Alex Delvecchio scores in the second, but Johnny Gottselig destroys any hope of a comeback in the third. 3-1 Sens, OTT 1-0

Game 2:
Plante is the king of the hill this time, he can't be scored on. Tim Kerr scores a timely power play goal and Sylvio Mantha adds a goal to send the Jacks over the Senators in Game 2. Plante stops all 40 shots on net. Inglewood 2-0. TIED 1-1

Game 3:
Chris Pronger shows up in Game 3, a goal, an assist on a Doug Bentley goal and a fight with Reggie Fleming has him fired up. The Sedin twins generate a goal as Henrik feeds Daniel, Delvecchio ties the game at two. Although Jagr scores early into overtime. 3-2 final. OTT 2-1

Game 4:
Pronger and Jagr frequently start passing to each other, a breakout pass springs a Jagr breakaway and the Sens take an early lead. Joseph starts to look a little more like Plante. Pronger plays solid shutdown D and Ottawa will score a late goal by Camille Henry. 2-0 win in favor of Ottawa. OTT 3-1

Game 5:
The Senators look to close the series out on home ice. Doug Bentley scores in the first, but so does Jack Darragh. Both teams swap second period goals by Tim Kerr and Henrik Zetterberg. And Zetterberg scores again off a Jagr feed which proves to be enough, to finish off the Jacks. 3-2 final score. OTT 4-1

Ottawa Senators defeat Inglewood Jacks in 5 games.

3 STARS:
1. Jaromir Jagr, OTT
2. Chris Pronger, OTT
3. Jacques Plante, ING

HM's: Kerr, Zetterberg, Bentley, Joseph

 

[BraveCanadian]

Who knows, if the Sedins break out next week this series might have gone the other way

 

[overpass]

Thanks for a good series, vecens and arrbez.

Who knows, if the Sedins break out next week this series might have gone the other way

Heh, could be. Drafting active players can be a two-edged sword. I'm just glad I didn't draft Luongo as my starter.

 

[arrbez]

Good series man, good luck next round.