ATD2011 Rene Lecavalier Finals: (1) Ottawa Senators vs. (2) Inglewood Jacks

Discussion in 'All Time Draft' started by Velociraptor, May 7, 2011.

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  1. Velociraptor

    Velociraptor Registered User

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    Ottawa Senators

    Coach: Dick Irvin Sr

    Doug Bentley - Henrik Zetterberg - Jaromir Jagr
    Johnny Gottselig - Mike Modano - Claude Provost
    Rick Nash - Dan Bain - Paul Henderson
    Camille Henry - Bill "Red" Hay - Jim Peplinski
    Spares: Martin Straka, Art Gagne

    Eddie Gerard - Chris Pronger
    Gary Bergman - Joe Simpson
    Alexei Gusarov - Kjell Samuelsson
    Spares: Pekka Rautakillio, Adrian Aucoin

    Curtis Joseph
    Vladimir Dzurilla


    vs.


    Inglewood Jacks

    Head Coach: Pat Burns

    Esa Tikkanen - Alex Delvecchio (A) - Jack Darragh
    Daniel Sedin - Henrik Sedin - Tim Kerr
    Lynn Patrick - Kent Nilsson - Harry Hyland
    John Madden - Ron Sutter - Reggie Fleming
    Spares: Real Cloutier, Tony Granato, Robert Lang

    Bill Gadsby - Sylvio Mantha (C)
    Robyn Regehr - Glen Harmon
    Nikolai Sologubov (A) - Ivan Tregubov
    Spares: Pavel Kubina

    Jacques Plante
    Marty Turco​
     
    Last edited: May 12, 2011
  2. Velociraptor

    Velociraptor Registered User

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    Ottawa Senators

    PP1: Bentley - Henry - Jagr - Pronger - Simpson
    PP2: Nash - Bain - Modano - -Gerard - Simpson/Bergman

    PK1: Zetterberg - Provost - Gerard - Pronger
    PK2: Gottselig - Hay - Gusarov - Samuelsson

    Inglewood Jacks

    PP1: Patrick - Nilsson - Kerr - Delvecchio - Gadsby
    PP2: D.Sedin - H.Sedin - Hyland - Mantha - Sologubov

    PK1: Tikkanen - Madden - Gadsby - Mantha
    PK2: Fleming - Sutter - Regehr - Harmon
     
  3. overpass

    overpass Registered User

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    Congratulations to vecens and arrbez on a fine entry. Here's to a good series.

    Ottawa's Game Plan

    I don't think Irvin will hard match, but he'll have last change in up to 4 of 7 games and will look to get the following matchups.

    Bentley - Zetterberg - Jagr vs any of the second, third, fourth lines.

    I expect Burns will try hard to get 1st line vs 1st line. And he'll probably get it in his home games. If he wants to scramble to get that matchup in Ottawa, he'll risk a bad change.

    Gottselig - Modano - Provost vs the first or second line. I think my second line is strong in transition both ways. They can take the defensive zone faceoffs against the Sedin-Sedin-Kerr line.

    Nash - Bain - Henderson vs Patrick - Nilsson - Hyland. I love the size-speed combo of Nash and Bain vs these guys, and I think Irvin would too. Henderson adds speed and smarts.

    Henry - Hay - Peplinski vs Fleming - Madden - Sutter

    Defensive pairings - Gerard and Pronger will play big minutes. I'm not going to limit them to going against one line. But they will play a lot against the Sedins and Kerr. The Sedins struggles against elite defensive pairings have been well chronicled.

    2nd and 3rd get the usual roles. Bergman and Simpson in a more offensive role, Gusarov and Samuelsson in a more defensive role.

    Here are Ottawa's bios for easy reference.


    Doug Bentley
    - Henrik Zetterberg - Jaromir Jagr
    Johnny Gottselig - Mike Modano - Claude Provost
    Rick Nash - Dan Bain - Paul Henderson
    Camille Henry - Bill "Red" Hay - Jim Peplinski
    Martin Straka, Art Gagne

    Eddie Gerard - Chris Pronger
    Gary Bergman - Joe Simpson
    Alexei Gusarov - Kjell Samuelsson
    Pekka Rautakillio, Adrian Aucoin

    Curtis Joseph
    Vladimir Dzurilla
     
    Last edited: May 11, 2011
  4. arrbez

    arrbez bad chi

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    Agreed sir. With all due respect, few things in life make me happier than seeing the Ottawa Senators lose. Hopefully we can make it happen here :handclap:
     
  5. overpass

    overpass Registered User

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    Who is going to score for Inglewood?

    Daniel - Henrik - Kerr?

    The Sedins have played 77 career playoff games each. Daniel has 51 points and is -7. Henrik has 52 points and is -11. And they have struggled especially against elite defensive pairings like Keith-Seabrook and Weber-Suter...and Gerard-Pronger?

    Kerr scored in the playoffs. But can he can stay healthy? Also, in this specific matchup, Pronger and Samuelsson can match his size and strength around the net. Actually, Kerr was lucky that he didn't have to face Kjell in his prime, as Kjell was his teammate, the biggest player in the league, and one of the few players who could match him for strength. Kerr also scored most of his playoff goals on the power play, which is fine when he's on the power play but means he's not a big factor at even strength. Can Inglewood count on this line to produce? You decide.

    Tikkanen - Delvecchio - Darragh?

    Nothing wrong with this line in the playoffs, I'll give you that. Tikkanen was very good in the playoffs, although he won't have Gretzky or Messier with him this time. But they're taking on a pretty heavy defensive role...can they do that and produce?

    Patrick - Nilsson - Hyland

    Lynn Patrick scored 16 points in 44 playoff games. (12 points in 40 playoff games after his rookie season.) From 1935 to 1942, among forwards, he played the 7th most playoff games and was 21st in playoff points. Not a strong playoff performer by any measure. Nilsson scored less than a point per game in the playoffs as a scoring forward in the 1980s (52 points and only 11 goals in 59 games.) In 1987, Mark Messier threatened to kill him if he didn't show up and play hard in the playoffs*. I'm not aware that Hyland has any particular playoff rep.

    *According to hockey legend - who knows if it's true, but it's an indictment of Nilsson that it sounds plausible.

    Fleming - Madden - Sutter.

    Defensive players on a fourth line. I'm not going to knock these guys, they do their jobs, but they're not here to score.
     
  6. arrbez

    arrbez bad chi

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    Holy ****, I just wrote a big long thing, and then accidentally clicked a link and lost everything. I'm gonna go shoot myself in the face now. If I survive, I'll re-do it tomorrow.
     
  7. arrbez

    arrbez bad chi

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    Oh, for the record we're making a small lineup change for this round. We'll be switching Regehr and Sologubov. We wanted to put Regehr's shut down ability to better use in this series, and we think he's a good match against Jagr because of his size and strength. He has had success when being assigned to Jagr before, although they never had a big playoff matchup or anything. It also lets us use the chemistry Sololgubov and Tregubov have for a very solid bottom pairing.

    Gadsby - Mantha
    Regehr - Harmon
    Sologubov - Tregubov
     
  8. BraveCanadian

    BraveCanadian Registered User

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    I agree with you here, the Sedins aren't doing themselves any favours this year, either.

    This part I disagree. For one, Samuelsson was big but not overly physical. He's like the defenseman version of Dave Andreychuk for being a giant who wasn't aggressive. And that includes the slow skating. I hope you didn't draft him to be intimidating.

    Two, Kerr was also a very strong regular strength scorer, he just gets his crazy PP proficiency overplayed to the point that people forget that.

    Despite injuries, Kerr was top 7 in ES goals 3 times in his NHL career. In the playoffs those Flyers ground out wins and relied on the PP so I'm not surprised about him scoring most of his goals there in the playoffs.

    So the question then really becomes only will he be healthy the whole series which is a legitimate question.

    While that was true in Calgary, in his best run (even if it did take a threat from Messier), he scored 19 points in 21 games on a Cup winner playing third line behind two superstar hall of famers eating up the majority of icetime.

    With that evidence he's perfectly suited here where as the third line guy he won't have all the pressure on him but he has a track record of excelling in that situation.

    The question with Nilsson is always the same. He is fabulously talented but will he bring it?

    Yeah they seem like a good grinding line and with Madden's speed teams will still have to be a bit careful of them.
     
  9. overpass

    overpass Registered User

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    I realize Kjell wasn't particularly physical. But size has value in itself when it comes to controlling valuble territory around the net. Kjell was the tallest and heaviest NHLer in his prime and among the best at protecting the net.
     
  10. overpass

    overpass Registered User

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    I believe Nilsson played LW with Messier and Anderson in the 1987 playoffs.
     
  11. BraveCanadian

    BraveCanadian Registered User

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    Oh yeah if he gets position on your and plants himself it is going to be hard to get him out of the way for sure.
     
  12. BraveCanadian

    BraveCanadian Registered User

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    You're probably right about that because in 87 they also had MacT. Stupid memory.

    Weird, hockey-reference has him listed as RW though
     
  13. overpass

    overpass Registered User

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    Video of Sologubov, Tregubov and Moscow Select facing the Whitby Dunlops in 1957:



    The Russians looked extremely unimpressive in this one minute shift - the Canadians were quicker to the puck, kept the puck in the zone, and scored.
     
  14. vecens24

    vecens24 Registered User

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    Really overpass? Come on I thought you of all people in our group wouldn't resort to stuff like this.

    This is a video of a 33 year old Sologubov having one crummy shift and the other team scoring. You act like stuff like hasn't ever happened to Pronger. But because so little video has been seen of Nik, you think this carries weight.

    You know better than to do stuff like this to downplay our players overpass.
     
  15. overpass

    overpass Registered User

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    Why will Ottawa's attack have an easier time scoring than Inglewood's?

    Quite simply, depth and a history of big game performance.

    Inglewood's first line of Tikkanen - Delvecchio - Darragh - their checking/two-way line - has a good record in the playoffs. (I'll let Inglewood's GMs give the details if they wish.) But so does Ottawa's second line of Gottselig - Modano - Provost, which is also a line designed to go against the other teams best. The two lines are actually fairly similar - compare Modano vs Delvecchio, Provost vs Tikkanen, Gottselig vs Darragh.

    Modano was the best player on a great Dallas Stars team in the dead puck era, and had Smythe-calibre performances in 1999 and 2000. Provost collected 9 Stanley Cup rings in his career and had some great defensive performances in the playoffs against the likes of Bobby Hull. Gottselig led two Stanley Cup winners in playoff goals, was first and second in playoff points, and captained one of those squads.

    We've already established that Inglewood's scoring lines of Sedin-Sedin-Kerr and Patrick-Nilsson-Hyland have playoff records that are shaky at best. How do Ottawa's scoring lines of Bentley-Zetterberg-Jagr and Nash-Bain-Henderson stack up?

    Bentley-Zetterberg-Jagr
    Bentley's playoff record can best be called incomplete. He had 17 points in 23 career playoff games. 9 of those games were in a war year, and 7 came before he was in his prime. So there really isn't much to go on.

    Zetterberg has led all players since the lockout with 45 playoff goals and a playoff +45, and is tied with Danny Briere with 93 playoff points. Unlike Briere, he has done so while drawing tough defensive assignments. He famously shut down Sidney Crosby in back-to-back Stanley Cup finals, and won the Conn Smythe trophy in 2008.

    Jagr's playoff record is not as good as his regular season record. But it's still very good. 181 points in 169 games, and a point per game or better in 11 of 15 playoff runs. And he had a weak supporting cast during most of his prime years in Pittsburgh, so he played a third of his playoff games at age 21 or younger.

    Nash-Bain-Henderson

    Nash's playoff record is an incomplete. 1 playoff series in his career in Columbus. But Nash has put together a strong international resume in the past few years for Team Canada. Part of Team Canada's best line in 2010. And as a regular at the World Championships he has scored 21 goals and 39 points in 27 games (not including this year), including 9 goals and 15 assists at the 2005 WC, which was close to a best-on-best because of the lockout.

    Dan Bain was a dominant player in leading his Winnipeg club in several Cup challenges. In fact, his big-game record is almost all we know of his hockey career!

    Paul Henderson is similar to Nash in that his big-game record was more on the international ice than in the NHL playoffs. Henderson was outstanding against the Soviets in 1972 and 1974. In 1972 he scored 7 goals from the checking line, including the game-winner in the last 3 games and the most famous goal in Canadian hockey history.
     
  16. overpass

    overpass Registered User

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    Fair point, it's a bit of a low blow. (Although I didn't cherry-pick this - it's the only video I've seen with Sologubov and Tregubov.) I admit this video doesn't say much about Sologubov and Tregubov as individual performers. But it may say something about the level of hockey in Russia at the time.

    Speaking of the level of Russian hockey, I've seen the following argument a few times. Paraphrased, it's "surely the second best defenceman in Russia must be as good as the tenth best defenceman in Canada, because their national teams weren't too far apart in quality." or something like that. I don't think it's my current opponents who have been making that argument, but I want to take it on because it's relevant to what we should expect from Sologubov and Tregubov.

    Consider the 2010 Olympics - Canada vs USA. The two teams played twice, and each won a game. Canada probably carried the play more, but the Americans were definitely competitive and were very close to winning both games.

    How would you compare their defencemen? Would the Americans best defenceman be as good as Canada's best? Second best? Would the American's third best defenceman be as good as Canada's third best defenceman? Fifth or sixth best defenceman? In reality, none of the American defencemen were good enough to have made the Canadian team! (At least at the time, in hindsight you could argue for Ryan Suter. Nobody else would have been close then or in hindsight.)

    Norway has played some close games with some of the best national teams in the world at the current world championships. How good is their best defenceman? As good as Canada's third best? Fifth best? (I actually don't know, but I doubt he'd make the roster of any of the top hockey countries.)

    While I don't know enough about Sologubov or Tregubov to call their individual quality into question, I will call their competition into question. I don't think that Russian hockey was good enough at the time they played to produce elite players. Maybe you could give them extra credit for their status as being among the best players in Russia at the time, but I have a hard time seeing them as among the best players in the world.

    Obviously other GMs disagree with me on the level of play in Europe in the 1950s, and there's room for different viewpoints here. But that's how I see it.
     
    Last edited: May 11, 2011
  17. TheDevilMadeMe

    TheDevilMadeMe Registered User

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    The "x best defenseman in the USSR" argument is based off a sample size of 25 years of Soviet domination of the international scene, and 15 years of playing competitive hockey with Canada. It's based off a hockey program that was the fruit of a national priority. Of course, the "25 years of Soviet domination" didn't start until the early 60s.
     
  18. BraveCanadian

    BraveCanadian Registered User

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    As the guy who has the person making the "2nd best russian defenseman (pre nhl days) = 10th best canadian" argument in my series: the problem with the argument is that the domination of the international scene ended the moment they started to face the best Canadians in best on best tournaments.

    That alone tells me, that while they were competitive, they weren't on the same level.

    As you said: they were the fruit of a national priority, with players who were training more professionally and playing together constantly (compared to the quickly thrown together often relatively out of shape Canadian teams) who more often than not beat them.

    I have the utmost respect for what they accomplished in such a short span catching up, but Canada could arguably field two or three teams that could still win those tournaments.
     
    Last edited: May 11, 2011
  19. TheDevilMadeMe

    TheDevilMadeMe Registered User

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    I think we have enough of a sample to believe the 76-87 Soviet national team was somewhere between a perennial Cup contender and a dynasty team if they were in the NHL. But yeah, they weren't even close to the depth of NHL as a whole. And the farther back you get, the less competitive they were.
     
  20. BraveCanadian

    BraveCanadian Registered User

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    Yeah, I would tend to agree.

    A remarkable accomplishment from where they started in that amount of time, but people are generally overselling the european/international resumes in a draft that is predominantly NHLers (in my opinion).
     
  21. vecens24

    vecens24 Registered User

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    Before getting any sort of argument from me, I'm waiting to hear back from arrbez on a proposed line change. Want his feedback on the idea.
     
  22. vecens24

    vecens24 Registered User

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    First let's go ahead and debunk the myth that Nilsson couldn't get up for big competition. 54 points in 47 international games says otherwise. His '87 playoffs say otherwise. His career playoffs is 52 points in 59 games. He's certainly an average playoff performer. When he wilted was in Supposedly in Calgary, however his worst playoffs on a PPG basis was 12 pts in 14 games. So yeah I think his playoff struggles are way overblown. Being a pure playmaker makes him perfect to go with the two scorers on his line. Hyland seems like a slightly above average guy who once scOred 4 goals in a PCHA title game,However that's all I can find at the moment. You'll see no argument from me calling Patrick an above average playoff guy.
     
    Last edited: May 12, 2011
  23. overpass

    overpass Registered User

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    I feel like I'm shooting fish in a barrel here. Nilsson's pretty widely considered a playoff disappointment. Let's take a more detailed look at Nilsson's NHL playoff career.

    1980 - zero points in 4 games.

    1981 - Nilsson continued his regular season scoring with 8 points in 3 games against Chicago in the first round. But he would only score 4 points in the next two rounds, playing 11 games. In his defence, he suffered a shoulder injury in the third round against the North Stars. But even in the second round, the Montreal Gazette wrote:
    1982 - No goals and three assists in a three game sweep.

    Going into the 1983 playoffs, Nilsson was widely considered to have been a playoff disappoinment to date.

    Steve Simmons in the Calgary Herald:
    Al MacNeil was interviewed on the Flames 1981 team. He doesn't mention Nilsson by name but it's hard not to read this as referring at least in part to Nilsson.

    Nilsson scored a goal and twelve points in 9 games in the 1983 playoffs. He initially impressed.
    It's also worth noting the following quote:
    Apparently some attributes were lacking when Nilsson played centre - most likely defensive play.

    1984 - Nilsson was injured

    1985 - one assist in three games. Nilsson was slammed for this performance, and was traded in the offseason.

    Source:
    Nilsson became a bit of a punch line in Calgary after this series.
    A historical look at the Battle of Alberta:
    The reference to the Oilers is the 1983 playoff series - the year when Nilsson had 12 points in 9 games.

    1987 - Nilsson scored 19 points in 21 games as the Oilers won the Stanley Cup. This run helped Nilsson's reputation a lot. But:

    1. Nilsson was playing LW. He's a C in this series, with the added responsibility that carries.
    2. Nilsson was playing on a line with Messier and Anderson, two playoff performers for the ages.
    3. Nilsson only scored 19 points in 21 games, while his linemates scored scored 28 and 27 points. It's pretty clear who the driving forces were on that line.
    4. 2 of Nilsson's 6 goals were empty-net goals in the final minute of one game.

    In Nilsson's defence, he won't be facing the other team's best unit this time. But this is the ATD. Ottawa's lower lines and bottom pairings are full of players who were first liners and shutdown defenders in their prime in the NHL. I don't think it's going to get any easier for him.
     
  24. vecens24

    vecens24 Registered User

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    Okay just an initial argument here since I still haven't heard back from arrbez.

    The biggest mismatch by far in this series is in goal. Joseph might be the worst starting goalie in the ATD, whereas the argument can be made Plante is the best. This is more than enough to swing a series (a la Boston vs. Philly this year).

    My next point is that if overpass is going to question Sologubov's defensive ability, then I have some serious questions about Bullet Joe Simpson as his #3. Not even in his bio does overpass have a quote about Simpson's defensive ability. I have my doubts that a small guy (was listed at 155 lbs) will be able to withstand the punishment of an ATD type team. He literally cannot be out there against my second line because of the cycle of the Sedins and the forechecking of Kerr. That is a matchup we hope to exploit if we can get it.

    Next, we have deeper scoring than the Senators. The Patrick-Nilsson-Hyland line should be effective from a speed standpoint against the third pairing of the Senators. While Patrick isn't the best playoff performer by any stretch, Hyland's somewhat above average playoff reputation plus Nilsson's average reputation when not having to be the man make up for it. We also like the Sedin-Sedin-Kerr matchup against their second pairing as has already been noted.

    Finally, their first line. We feel that Tikkanen is the perfect foil to Jagr. Jagr is a guy who has a reputation as a head case and Tikkanen was better than anyone at getting in people's heads. Jagr should be spending a decent amount of time in the penalty box just out of frustration. No one can totally stop Jagr, but I think having one of the best pests of all time will certainly help us at least slow him down better than most teams are capable of. After that, we feel that we have a pretty decent sized advantage at center with Delvecchio against Zetterberg. Bentley is an advantage over Darragh, but Bentley really doesn't have much of a playoff record whereas Darragh does. We think these two lines will basically cancel each other out due to the superior defensive (and pest) ability of Inglewood's first line. Our goal will be to get 1st line against 1st line as much as possible, and with Pat Burns we feel there is a good chance of that happening.

    As far as the home ice advantage goes, with Plante in net we feel we are one of if not the best equipped teams to steal a game or two on road ice. The easiest way to win on the road is with strong goaltending, and we have that in spades over the Senators.

    Hopefully I'll be around tomorrow or tonight to refute anything you say in return overpass. This is shaping up to be a good series I think.
     
  25. vecens24

    vecens24 Registered User

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    overpass, I'd like to hear your response for his international resume as well, because outside of going to one Canada Cup out of shape he's been a damn good performer there.

    The other thing with Nilsson is that you act like him not scoring goals and assisting is a bad thing here. That's exactly what he'll be counted on to do here. He has two snipers on his wings. His assist ratio of .70 in the playoffs is remarkably similar to his assist ratio of .76 in the regular season. He's not going to be counted on to shoot, just to distribute and he's fine in that role here I think, even in the playoffs.
     

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