ATD2011 Red Fisher Semi: Regina Pats vs. Hartford Whalers

[Dreakmur]

Regina Pats

Coach: Fred Shero

Johnny Bucyk - Mark Messier (C) - Teemu Selanne
Jack Adams - Pierre Turgeon - Wayne Cashman (A)
Mel Bridgman - Murray Oliver - Bob Nevin
Dubbie Kerr - Cal Gardner - Al MacAdam

King Clancy - Hap Day (A)
Jim Neilson (A) - Leo Reise Jr.
Wade Redden - Joe Watson

Tony Esposito
Roger Crozier

Spares:
Bob MacMillan (F)
Andre Boudrias (LW/C)
Bryan McCabe (D)
Lou Fontinato (D)
​

special teams (so far):

PP1: Bucyk-Messier-Selanne-Clancy-Day
PP2: Adams-Turgeon-Cashman-Neilson-Redden
PK1: Messier-Nevin-Neilson-Day
PK2: Bridgman-Oliver-Watson-Reise

VS.


Hartford Whalers

Busher Jackson - Bobby Clarke (C) - Punch Broadbent
J.P. Parise - Joe Nieuwendyk (A) - Bill Mosienko
Dave Trottier - Joel Otto - John McKenzie
Doc Romnes - Erich Kühnhackl - Pat Verbeek
Igor Liba, Ladislav Trojak

Herb Gardiner (A) - Börje Salming
Paul Reinhart - Ott Heller
Glen Wesley - Phil Russell
Steve Chiasson

Ed Belfour
Riley Hern

Coach: Peter Laviolette
Assistant coach: Alf Smith

PP1: Busher Jackson - Joe Nieuwendyk - Bobby Clarke - Paul Reinhart - Börje Salming
PP2: Punch Broadbent - Erich Kühnhackl - Bill Mosienko - Herb Gardiner - Ott Heller

PK1: Bobby Clarke - Punch Broadbent - Herb Gardiner - Börje Salming
PK2: Dave Trottier - Joel Otto - Glen Wesley - Ott Heller


​

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[Dreakmur]

Mark Messier vs. Bobby Clarke

 

[MadArcand]

More like his nemesis Otto.

 

[BraveCanadian]

More like his nemesis Otto.

Why not both?

Or yeah, stick Otto on Messier ala real life and then let Clarke carve up Turgeon like the chicken he is

 

[MadArcand]

Why not both?

Or yeah, stick Otto on Messier ala real life and then let Clarke carve up Turgeon like the chicken he is

That's the preliminary plan - 3v1 (Otto on Messier, Trottier on Selanne), 1v2 (Clarke on Turgeon), 2v3 & 4v4

 

[raleh]

That's the preliminary plan - 3v1 (Otto on Messier, Trottier on Selanne), 1v2 (Clarke on Turgeon), 2v3 & 4v4

Can you play them against each other just a few times? That's two of the best cheap shot artists of all time going head to head!

 

[seventieslord]

Can you play them against each other just a few times? That's two of the best cheap shot artists of all time going head to head!

Difference is, Messier can back it up, Clarke can't.

 

[MadArcand]

That's why he has Broadbent always at the ready to beat Messier to pulp.

 

[seventieslord]

That's why he has Broadbent always at the ready to beat Messier to pulp.

pffft... as if Messier would be scared of Broadbent.

I absolutely love that your plan is to go after my 2nd line center... that is wonderful!

The book on Turgeon is take him out of the game physically and you can take him out of the game offensively. I just question how effective that really was, because even with all those times he was "taken out of the game" he was still a top-25 scorer ten times, never scored under a PPG from age 19-31, and scored almost a PPG in the playoffs in his career.

If you succeed... good for you. It wouldn't be enough to win the series. But will you even succeed at that, when Adams and Cashman, two wingers significantly tougher than anyone Turgeon had on a regular basis, patrol his wings?

 

[MadArcand]

Are you insinuating that Turgeon and his motley crew can keep up with Clarke, Broadbent and Jackson in any aspect of the game? C'mon.

 

[seventieslord]

Are you insinuating that Turgeon and his motley crew can keep up with Clarke, Broadbent and Jackson in any aspect of the game? C'mon.

Well.... Broadbent is obviously not much better than Adams, if at all. No doubt Clarke is a better player than Turgeon. He will defend him very well, be very dangerous on the counterattack, and will probably attempt dirty tactics too. But he better kill him on his first chance, because Cashman won't stand for that crap from a d-bag like Clarke. There are no BSB to protect him... and make no mistake, that was a very big part of any intimidation edge Clarke held.

With that said, Jackson is obviously better than Cashman and the line is obviously better overall... it's a first line, after all. It's going to outscore the 2nd line if you play them head to head, by being a little better offensively and significantly better defensively. But toughness-wise I can't see it having the impact you see. Adams and Broadbent are a wash in that regard. Jackson was aggressive but not really tough. You're left with Clarke cheapshotting Turgeon, and Cashman going after Clarke. Hard as it may be to believe, he's even dirtier than Clarke and he's a lot bigger and stronger too.

 

[MadArcand]

'a little better offensively'? Try worlds better. And there may be no BSB to protect Clarke, but there's Broadbent, a man that even Sprague Cleghorn feared.

 

[seventieslord]

'a little better offensively'? Try worlds better. And there may be no BSB to protect Clarke, but there's Broadbent, a man that even Sprague Cleghorn feared.

I realize Broadbent was somewhat of a power forward... I believe Adams was, too. I believe Cashman is the toughest and dirtiest player of the six, though. Do you disagree? Comparing them at this point really comes down to the quality and quantity of quotes on the matter (otherwise we are left with our own biased opinions, right?) and I think Cashman takes the cake here.

And really, the offensive thing depends on your meaning of the words "worlds better".

- Adams and Broadbent are more or less equal in this regard.
- Jackson is significantly more potent than Cashman.
- Clarke has a significantly better offensive peak than Turgeon (percentages 104 101 100 97 to 93 89 86 85), but then Turgeon has significantly better offensive longevity (84 83 83 80 75 70 to 76 74 74 72 70 59) - Yes Clarke is better offensively.... but it's not an extremely wide gap.

It really comes down to the massive edge Jackson has on Cashman. But they are each just one third of their respective line.

 

[BraveCanadian]

- Clarke has a significantly better offensive peak than Turgeon (percentages 104 101 100 97 to 93 89 86 85), but then Turgeon has significantly better offensive longevity (84 83 83 80 75 70 to 76 74 74 72 70 59) - Yes Clarke is better offensively.... but it's not an extremely wide gap.

If Clarke is better offensively at all compared to Turgeon, and you throw in the fact that Clarke is going to strangle Turgeon's offensive ability by some fair amount at the same time.. any time they are matched up it is going to be a demolition by Clarke's line.

You'd be smart to avoid this matchup as much as you can, in my opinion.

Turgeon was only average defensively with a small plus for anticipation when he was interested that *might* make him below to average in this setting.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

- Clarke has a significantly better offensive peak than Turgeon (percentages 104 101 100 97 to 93 89 86 85), but then Turgeon has significantly better offensive longevity (84 83 83 80 75 70 to 76 74 74 72 70 59) - Yes Clarke is better offensively.... but it's not an extremely wide gap.

I think there needs to be some kind of adjustment when looking at longevity. Overall, players of Clarke's era didn't hold up as well/long as they did in Turgeon's. I'm thinking when you take that into account the longevity of these two is pretty close.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Ok, I want to know - did Otto actually reduce Messier's offensive production statistically, or did he just neutralize the physical/intimidation part of Messier's game?

 

[BillyShoe1721]

It depends how you define "dirty". I define dirty as being a cheap shot artist, making questionable decisions, and deliberately breaking the rules to hurt someone. Clarke fits that to a T. And that's coming from a huge Bobby Clarke fan. I think Clarke is a dirtier player. Broadbent should be a good enough bodyguard for Clarke when he's out. He can start as much crap as he wants, and Broadbent can back him up. If I was a Clarke owner, I would have drafted a goon that can play(like Dave Schultz) and put him on the 4th line just because his presence makes Clarke that much more effective.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Do ATD rules allow bench clearing brawls? Heh

 

[jarek]

That is definitely a possibility in this series.

 

[seventieslord]

If Clarke is better offensively at all compared to Turgeon, and you throw in the fact that Clarke is going to strangle Turgeon's offensive ability by some fair amount at the same time.. any time they are matched up it is going to be a demolition by Clarke's line.

You'd be smart to avoid this matchup as much as you can, in my opinion.

No. He can have it - think about the tradeoff. Where's the bigger plus? My 1st against his 2nd? Or his 1st against my 2nd? No doubt. If he gets a +3 in that matchup over the series, we're looking at a +5 in the other matchup. I'll take that.

Turgeon was only average defensively with a small plus for anticipation when he was interested that *might* make him below to average in this setting.

Look, I'll take it even farther. Turgeon is well below average defensively, I'll make no bones about it; I'm in complete acceptance of his limitations as a player.

I think there needs to be some kind of adjustment when looking at longevity. Overall, players of Clarke's era didn't hold up as well/long as they did in Turgeon's. I'm thinking when you take that into account the longevity of these two is pretty close.

I partially agree, but at the same time, some generations of players just didn't do as well against the generations before and after them. The 70s generation fits that bill.

It depends how you define "dirty". I define dirty as being a cheap shot artist, making questionable decisions, and deliberately breaking the rules to hurt someone. Clarke fits that to a T. And that's coming from a huge Bobby Clarke fan. I think Clarke is a dirtier player. Broadbent should be a good enough bodyguard for Clarke when he's out. He can start as much crap as he wants, and Broadbent can back him up. If I was a Clarke owner, I would have drafted a goon that can play(like Dave Schultz) and put him on the 4th line just because his presence makes Clarke that much more effective.

I dunno man. Read Cashman's bio. He's dirty, he's scary, he's downright evil at times. He is the answer to a Clarke. Not saying he's going to necessarily wreck him... but, Clarke is smart enough to behave with a guy like Cash on the ice. That's what he was best at.

 

[MadArcand]

No. He can have it - think about the tradeoff. Where's the bigger plus? My 1st against his 2nd? Or his 1st against my 2nd? No doubt. If he gets a +3 in that matchup over the series, we're looking at a +5 in the other matchup. I'll take that.

I'm not gonna match up my 2nd against your 1st. I'm gonna match my 3rd against your 1st, as I have the perfect foils for Messier and Selanne there.

As for Cashman vs. Broadbent, I read your bio and I'd call it a tossup. Yeah Cashman was mean SOB, but they didn't call Broadbent "Punch" and "Old Elbows" for no reason either.

 

[MadArcand]

Ok, I want to know - did Otto actually reduce Messier's offensive production statistically, or did he just neutralize the physical/intimidation part of Messier's game?

Grand totals, Messier vs. Otto, from 1987 onward (unfortunately misses a playoff in favor of Otto):
51 GP, 22-22-7 team record

Messier in those games: +1, 59 pts (16 + 43) - 1.16 PPG

Otto in those games: -4, 25 pts (6+19) - 0.5 PPG

Detailed game logs:
1985-86:
Flames defeat Oilers in 2nd round, 4-3
- no boxscores on HR for that year yet (anyone who knows where else I could find those?)
- overall that playoffs, Messier had 10 pts in 10 games (far worse than his PPG in 7 surrounding years, even including a 1st round loss), Otto 15 in 22.


1987-88:
Regular season meetings:
5-4 EDM, Messier 0+1 -1 0 shots; Otto 0+1 -2 3s
5-3 EDM, Messier 1+1 +1 2s; Otto 0+1 +1 2s
5-4 CGY, Messier 0+1 0 2s, Otto 0+1 0 1s
3-2 CGY, Messier 0+2 +1 2s, Otto 2+0 +1 2s
7-4 CGY, Messier 0+0 0 2s, Otto 0+1 0 3s

- overall Messier went 1+5 +1 8s in 5 games against Otto, for 1.2 PPG and 1.6 SPG. He went 1.46 PPG and 2.4 SPG in the rest of his games. Apparently Otto limited him to almost shot less and 0.26 PPG less.
- Otto went 2+4 0 11s in those 5 games, outshooting Messier and matching Messier's production

Oilers defeat Flames in 2nd round, 4-0
G1: 3-1, Messier scored a PPG, +/- 0, 3 shots. Otto +/- 0, 2 shots
G2: 5-4, Messier scored a PPG, +/- -1, 5 shots. Otto +/- -1, 0 shots.
G3: 4-2, Messier 3A (2 on PP), +/- +1, 2 shots. Otto +/- 0, 1 shot.
G4: 6-4, Messier 1+1 (PPG), +/- +2, 1 shot. Otto 1A, +/- 0, 3 shots.

- overall that series, Messier was limited to 2 ES points (both assists) and 11 shots. Messier ended the series with 7 pts total though, being efficient on PP. That's 1.75 PPG. The rest of the playoffs, Messier scored 1.8 PPG. Oilers lost only two games that playoffs.


1988-89:
Regular season:
6-1 CGY, Messier 0+0 -1 1s 15 PIM, Otto 0+0 0 0s 7 PIM
7-4 CGY, Messier 0+0 -1 0s 20 PIM, Otto 1+0 0 1s 5 PIM
5-3 CGY, Messier 0+1 -1 0s, Otto 0+0 0 0s
4-1 EDM, Messier 0+0 -1 1s, Otto 0+0 -2 3s
7-2 CGY, Messier 0+0 0 4s, Otto 0+2 0 0s
6-0 EDM, Messier 2+0 +1 3s, Otto 0+0 0 1s
5-5 tie, Messier 0+2 -1 0s, Otto 1+2 +3 2s
4-2 CGY, Messier 0+0 -1 0s, Otto 0+1 -1 1s

- Messier was 2+3 -5 9s in the 8 GP, for 0.625 PPG and 1.125 SPG. He went 1.39 PPG and 2.42 SPG in the rest of the games - nearly two shots and one point more!
- Otto actually outscored Messier, 2+5 0 8s


1989-90:
Regular season:
5-2 EDM, Messier 1+2 +2 2s, Otto 0+0 -1 0s
5-1 CGY, Messier 0+0 -1 1s, Otto 0+0 0 0s
3-3 tie, Messier 0+2 +1 5s, Otto 0+0 0 1s
2-1 EDM, Messier 0+1 +1 2s, Otto 0+0 0 2s
3-1 CGY, Messier 0+0 -2 4s, Otto 0+0 +1 0s
10-4 CGY, Messier 0+2 +1 2s, Otto 0+0 +1 1s
6-2 CGY, Messier 0+1 0 1s, Otto 0+1 0 1s

- Messier was 1+8 +2 17s in the 7 games, for 1.29 PPG & 2.43 SPG. He was 1.67 PPG & 2.69 SPG in the rest of his games.


1990-91:
Regular season:
3-2 CGY, Messier 0+0 -2 2s, Otto 0+0 0 1s
6-2 EDM, Messier 0+1 +1 1s, Otto 0+0 -2 3s
4-4 tie, Messier 1+1 +1 6s, Otto 0+1 +1 0s
6-5 EDM, Messier 0+2 +4 1s, Otto 1+0 -1 2s

- Messier's SPG actually improved in games against Otto this season, by almost 0.5 SPG and he also had a minimal increase in PPG.

Playoffs:
3-1 EDM, Messier 0+2 +3 0s, Otto 0+0 -1 1s
3-1 CGY, Messier 0+0 -1 5s, Otto 0+0 0 2s
4-3 EDM, Messier 0+1 +1 3s, Otto 1+0 0 1s
5-2 EDM, Messier 1+1 0 3s, Otto 0+0 0 1s
5-3 CGY, Messier 0+0 0 4s, Otto 0+0 -1 1s
2-1 CGY, Messier 0+1 -1 4s, Otto 0+0 -1 1s
5-4 EDM, Messier 1+0 0 5s, Otto 0+2 +1 2s

- Messier went 2+5 +2 24s, once again improving compared to rest of his playoffs (Messier had a really crappy year that season, come to think of it...)


Rangers years:
1991-92:
4-0 NYR, Messier 0+1 +1 3s, Otto 0+0 -2 4s
6-4 NYR, Messier 0+1 -1 5s, Otto 0+0 -1 2s
4-4 tie, Messier 0+2 0 4s, Otto 0+0 -1 0s

1992-93:
3-0 CGY, Messier 0+0 -1 6s, Otto 0+1 +1 1s
4-4 tie, Messier 0+1 -1 1s, Otto 0+0 +2 2s

1995-96:
2-1 NYR, Messier 0+1 0 4s, Otto 0+0 -1 2s
4-0 NYR, Messier 2+2 +1 5s, Otto 0+0 0 3s
4-4 tie, Messier 2+2 +1 6s, Otto 0+0 0 1s
4-1 PHI, Messier 0+0 -2 1s, Otto 0+0 0 1s

1996-97:
2-1 PHI, Messier 0+1 +1 0s, Otto 0+1 +1 3s
1-1 tie, Messier 0+0 -1 2s, Otto 0+0 0 0s
4-2 NYR, Messier 1+0 -1 3s, Otto 0+1 0 1s
Playoffs:
5-4 NYR, Messier 1+2 0 4s, Otto 0+1 +1 0s
6-3 PHI, Messier 0+0 -2 4s, Otto 0+1 +1 0s
3-2 PHI, Messier 0+0 0 1s, Otto 0+0 -1 1s
4-2 PHI, Messier 0+1 0 2s, Otto 0+0 0 1s

I think Otto did a quite visible job on Messier.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Grand totals, Messier vs. Otto, from 1987 onward (unfortunately misses a playoff in favor of Otto):
51 GP, 22-22-7 team record

Messier in those games: +1, 59 pts (16 + 43) - 1.16 PPG

Otto in those games: -4, 25 pts (6+19) - 0.5 PPG

Detailed game logs:
1985-86:
Flames defeat Oilers in 2nd round, 4-3
- no boxscores on HR for that year yet (anyone who knows where else I could find those?)
- overall that playoffs, Messier had 10 pts in 10 games (far worse than his PPG in 7 surrounding years, even including a 1st round loss), Otto 15 in 22.


1987-88:
Regular season meetings:
5-4 EDM, Messier 0+1 -1 0 shots; Otto 0+1 -2 3s
5-3 EDM, Messier 1+1 +1 2s; Otto 0+1 +1 2s
5-4 CGY, Messier 0+1 0 2s, Otto 0+1 0 1s
3-2 CGY, Messier 0+2 +1 2s, Otto 2+0 +1 2s
7-4 CGY, Messier 0+0 0 2s, Otto 0+1 0 3s

- overall Messier went 1+5 +1 8s in 5 games against Otto, for 1.2 PPG and 1.6 SPG. He went 1.46 PPG and 2.4 SPG in the rest of his games. Apparently Otto limited him to almost shot less and 0.26 PPG less.
- Otto went 2+4 0 11s in those 5 games, outshooting Messier and matching Messier's production

Oilers defeat Flames in 2nd round, 4-0
G1: 3-1, Messier scored a PPG, +/- 0, 3 shots. Otto +/- 0, 2 shots
G2: 5-4, Messier scored a PPG, +/- -1, 5 shots. Otto +/- -1, 0 shots.
G3: 4-2, Messier 3A (2 on PP), +/- +1, 2 shots. Otto +/- 0, 1 shot.
G4: 6-4, Messier 1+1 (PPG), +/- +2, 1 shot. Otto 1A, +/- 0, 3 shots.

- overall that series, Messier was limited to 2 ES points (both assists) and 11 shots. Messier ended the series with 7 pts total though, being efficient on PP. That's 1.75 PPG. The rest of the playoffs, Messier scored 1.8 PPG. Oilers lost only two games that playoffs.


1988-89:
Regular season:
6-1 CGY, Messier 0+0 -1 1s 15 PIM, Otto 0+0 0 0s 7 PIM
7-4 CGY, Messier 0+0 -1 0s 20 PIM, Otto 1+0 0 1s 5 PIM
5-3 CGY, Messier 0+1 -1 0s, Otto 0+0 0 0s
4-1 EDM, Messier 0+0 -1 1s, Otto 0+0 -2 3s
7-2 CGY, Messier 0+0 0 4s, Otto 0+2 0 0s
6-0 EDM, Messier 2+0 +1 3s, Otto 0+0 0 1s
5-5 tie, Messier 0+2 -1 0s, Otto 1+2 +3 2s
4-2 CGY, Messier 0+0 -1 0s, Otto 0+1 -1 1s

- Messier was 2+3 -5 9s in the 8 GP, for 0.625 PPG and 1.125 SPG. He went 1.39 PPG and 2.42 SPG in the rest of the games - nearly two shots and one point more!
- Otto actually outscored Messier, 2+5 0 8s


1989-90:
Regular season:
5-2 EDM, Messier 1+2 +2 2s, Otto 0+0 -1 0s
5-1 CGY, Messier 0+0 -1 1s, Otto 0+0 0 0s
3-3 tie, Messier 0+2 +1 5s, Otto 0+0 0 1s
2-1 EDM, Messier 0+1 +1 2s, Otto 0+0 0 2s
3-1 CGY, Messier 0+0 -2 4s, Otto 0+0 +1 0s
10-4 CGY, Messier 0+2 +1 2s, Otto 0+0 +1 1s
6-2 CGY, Messier 0+1 0 1s, Otto 0+1 0 1s

- Messier was 1+8 +2 17s in the 7 games, for 1.29 PPG & 2.43 SPG. He was 1.67 PPG & 2.69 SPG in the rest of his games.


1990-91:
Regular season:
3-2 CGY, Messier 0+0 -2 2s, Otto 0+0 0 1s
6-2 EDM, Messier 0+1 +1 1s, Otto 0+0 -2 3s
4-4 tie, Messier 1+1 +1 6s, Otto 0+1 +1 0s
6-5 EDM, Messier 0+2 +4 1s, Otto 1+0 -1 2s

- Messier's SPG actually improved in games against Otto this season, by almost 0.5 SPG and he also had a minimal increase in PPG.

Playoffs:
3-1 EDM, Messier 0+2 +3 0s, Otto 0+0 -1 1s
3-1 CGY, Messier 0+0 -1 5s, Otto 0+0 0 2s
4-3 EDM, Messier 0+1 +1 3s, Otto 1+0 0 1s
5-2 EDM, Messier 1+1 0 3s, Otto 0+0 0 1s
5-3 CGY, Messier 0+0 0 4s, Otto 0+0 -1 1s
2-1 CGY, Messier 0+1 -1 4s, Otto 0+0 -1 1s
5-4 EDM, Messier 1+0 0 5s, Otto 0+2 +1 2s

- Messier went 2+5 +2 24s, once again improving compared to rest of his playoffs (Messier had a really crappy year that season, come to think of it...)


Rangers years:
1991-92:
4-0 NYR, Messier 0+1 +1 3s, Otto 0+0 -2 4s
6-4 NYR, Messier 0+1 -1 5s, Otto 0+0 -1 2s
4-4 tie, Messier 0+2 0 4s, Otto 0+0 -1 0s

1992-93:
3-0 CGY, Messier 0+0 -1 6s, Otto 0+1 +1 1s
4-4 tie, Messier 0+1 -1 1s, Otto 0+0 +2 2s

1995-96:
2-1 NYR, Messier 0+1 0 4s, Otto 0+0 -1 2s
4-0 NYR, Messier 2+2 +1 5s, Otto 0+0 0 3s
4-4 tie, Messier 2+2 +1 6s, Otto 0+0 0 1s
4-1 PHI, Messier 0+0 -2 1s, Otto 0+0 0 1s

1996-97:
2-1 PHI, Messier 0+1 +1 0s, Otto 0+1 +1 3s
1-1 tie, Messier 0+0 -1 2s, Otto 0+0 0 0s
4-2 NYR, Messier 1+0 -1 3s, Otto 0+1 0 1s
Playoffs:
5-4 NYR, Messier 1+2 0 4s, Otto 0+1 +1 0s
6-3 PHI, Messier 0+0 -2 4s, Otto 0+1 +1 0s
3-2 PHI, Messier 0+0 0 1s, Otto 0+0 -1 1s
4-2 PHI, Messier 0+1 0 2s, Otto 0+0 0 1s

I think Otto did a quite visible job on Messier.

That is a fair bit of homework you had to do, but it looks like it was worth it for you.

 

[vecens24]

Just how I said last round EB and TDMM was in my opinion two of the top 5 teams, this is also two of my top 5 teams in the draft. Great matchup here.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

So Regina better figure out their desired matchups soon.