ATD2010 Bob Cole 1st round: Detroit Falcons (2) vs. Chief de Laval (7)

[markrander87]

Ive already posted my minutes per line. On the road my 1st and 3rd line will see close to 40-45 minutes of ice time. If he wants to play one of his scoring lines agaisnt my 2nd line they will only see roughly 12-14 minutes. Also whenever my 2nd line is on the defense pairing of Savard-Boucher will be on the ice so that will not be the reason I lose this series.

 

[VanIslander]

I can agree that his 1st line is better if he puts Delvecchio up there. (apps/richard cancels out Lemieux/Conacher, Delvecchio wins the rubbermatch vs. Olmstead).

Exactly. I have already stated my thoughts on the matter on the boards and via PM to the GM weeks ago. Delvecchio is no anchor for a line, instead ideally a complimentary player to a superstar, or two:

Alex Delvecchio - Mario Lemieux - Charlie Conacher
Kevin Stevens - Billy Burch - Anders Hedberg

That gives a CLEAR competitive advantage in terms of top line scoring. In fact, it makes it difficult for many opposing teams to even contain, Falcons included.

The 2nd and 3rd lines will score as well, and have plenty of second tier opposing skaters to deal with, since all top defensive players will be thrown against the DLC line.

 

[jarek]

What proof does somebody need to no that Mario Lemieux is a would have a bigger influence in a series than Maurice Richard

I don't think anyone is disputing this. You should clear your head and realize that what people are disputing is your attack on Maurice Richard, who himself is one of the greatest playoff performers ever. That isn't the way to win a series. Prove why YOUR TEAM is better, not why the other team is worse.

As far as your minutes estimations, how do you break that down into 9 PP and 9 PK minutes? Because Richard is in this series, you're going to get more than a few power plays, so I'd like to hear more about that. Obviously it's something you can potentially exploit.

 

[hungryhungryhippy]

The only person who has made a final call on the series, it seems, was hhh. People are willing and listening to good arguements, myself included.

I'm absolutely willing to change my mind as well.

I said that after initially comparing the rosters, I like the Falcons teams a lot more, but obviously that can change because there are probably a lot of things I didn't consider that will come up in these discussion.

I don't think ANYONE comes into these threads without a pre-determined conclusion of some sort, even if that conclusion is "wow these teams are close". We all have an idea of what we think of these players, and these teams, but we listen to the arguments and sometimes change our minds as the series' go along.

 

[markrander87]

It's going to be interesting to see what defensive pairing he plans on using to try and shutdown the DLC line.

 

[markrander87]

Either way, this is going to be one of the highest scoring series in all of ATD history.

And ask yourself which top line would you rather have in a situation like this?? Which top pairing defenseman would you rather have?? Which Goalie would you rather have?? Especially with the clear lack of playoff experience both of his goaltenders have.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

It's going to be interesting to see what defensive pairing he plans on using to try and shutdown the DLC line.

This is very true. If Laval is to have a chance, their top line needs to exploit the fact that Detroit really doesn't have a shutdown pairing who can match them.

Detroit's second line will outscore Laval's second line, and possibly by a lot.

So Laval needs a better performance from their first line than Detroit gets from their first line.

The key to this series will be each team's ability to control the other's first line. If the first lines are close in performance, Detroit should win. If Laval's first line can exploit weaknesses on Detroit, they very well could pull off the upset.

 

[hungryhungryhippy]

^ That's what I was just thinking as well

 

[seventieslord]

My mind is far from made up. These rosters aren't too far off. An upset is definitely possible as long as markrander focuses on something other than Richard not being very clutch.

Breaking these teams down, line by line, pairing by pairing, i don't think Detroit has more advantages than Laval, but they do have the biggest advantage, that being the 2nd line. mark saying he wants to limit his 2nd line's minutes, is probably a very smart strategy.

 

[markrander87]

This is very true. If Laval is to have a chance, their top line needs to exploit the fact that Detroit really doesn't have a shutdown pairing who can match them.

Detroit's second line will outscore Laval's second line, and possibly by a lot.

So Laval needs a better performance from their first line than Detroit gets from their first line.

The key to this series will be each team's ability to control the other's first line. If the first lines are close in performance, Detroit should win. If Laval's first line can exploit weaknesses on Detroit, they very well could pull off the upset.

This is exactly what I was thinking, to be honest even before the playoffs were determined I was thinking that if I was going to move delvecchio up on to my 1st line that I would Want to face Detroit in the first round. I feel my team is built to beat his team.

Detroits 3rd line is a very small Shutdown line:

Madden 5'11 190
Finnigan 5'9 165
Lehtinen 6'0 192

Im not trying to bash his team, im just pointing how relatively small his team is.

Neidermayer 6'0 190
Hitchman 6'1 167 (IS very tough, size is an issue)
Lowe 6'2 200

Which defenseman is going to clear the crease for detroit?? Roy Worters is 5-3 140 pounds he wont be able to see anything with players like:

Lemieux 6'4 235
Conacher 6'1 195
Stevens 6'3 230 (Will be parked infront, every PP)

Out of the crease??

With Richard on his team, he is liable to take stupid penalties and with Players like Nesterenko and Maloney to get under his skin we feel he will be off his game and will allow our Power Play to do a lot of damage

 

[markrander87]

My mind is far from made up. These rosters aren't too far off. An upset is definitely possible as long as markrander focuses on something other than Richard not being very clutch.

Breaking these teams down, line by line, pairing by pairing, i don't think Detroit has more advantages than Laval, but they do have the biggest advantage, that being the 2nd line. mark saying he wants to limit his 2nd line's minutes, is probably a very smart strategy.

There minutes will be limited and the role of the 2nd scoring line is a lot less valuable then the role of the 1st. Let's use some numbers:

In terms of % of goals scored would something along the lines of production of goals scored from forwards. even strength

1st line 55%
2nd line 25%
3rd line 15%
4th line 5%

My point is that a more productive 1st line is way more valuable to a team then a way more productive 2nd line. When you look at the top 5 man units for each team the gap is about the same in my favour as the gap is in his favour for the 2nd lines.

Lemieux>Richard
Apps>Conacher
Delvecchio>Olmstead
Savard>Niedermayer
Boucher>Hitchman

And until proven otherwise Worlsey>Worters the experience I posted isnt even close.

 

[jarek]

I wouldn't take size numbers literally. Hitchman was huge for his era IIRC, so he'd be very big here. Worters was tiny, but that would make him maybe what, 5'8, 5'9 here? Still small, but not a dwarf. Etc..

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

I wouldn't take size numbers literally. Hitchman was huge for his era IIRC, so he'd be very big here. Worters was tiny, but that would make him maybe what, 5'8, 5'9 here? Still small, but not a dwarf. Etc..

Agree that Hitchman is a big and strong man.

Worters, however, is still quite small. Though not as absurdly so as his "unadjusted size" would indicate.

 

[markrander87]

I wouldn't take size numbers literally. Hitchman was huge for his era IIRC, so he'd be very big here. Worters was tiny, but that would make him maybe what, 5'8, 5'9 here? Still small, but not a dwarf. Etc..

His team looking at the stats is small. theres no way around it, even breaking the players up by era hitchman-conacher, Lemieux,stevens-Madden, Lehtenen my team has the decisive size advantage. 5'8?? generous even still Thats well below average size for a goalie. Do you really want a undersized goalie while playing a team whos main strength (Especially on the PP) is there size and crease presence??

I'm not saying having a small goalie is a bad thing(Worsley is not tall either) but for the Matchup is is defianlty a disadvantage that We will exploit

 

[jarek]

His team looking at the stats is small. theres no way around it, even breaking the players up by era hitchman-conacher, Lemieux,stevens-Madden, Lehtenen my team has the decisive size advantage. 5'8?? generous even still Thats well below average size for a goalie. Do you really want a undersized goalie while playing a team whos main strength (Especially on the PP) is there size and crease presence??

I'm not saying having a small goalie is a bad thing(Worsley is not tall either) but for the Matchup is is defianlty a disadvantage that We will exploit

I'm just saying that the guys you were talking about aren't as small as you've have us believe.

 

[markrander87]

I'm just saying that the guys you were talking about aren't as small as you've have us believe.

I'm not sure what your point is? Isn'tthat EB's job to defend his team? Like TDMM said worters is a small goalie. And YES Lehtenen and Madden are both smaller Sized modern era shut down players. Who on his 3rd line is known to be a physical presence?

 

[EagleBelfour]

Until when can we argue on this serie? I definitely want to argue my case, especially some of the things I've read! However, I'm short on time this week, the next 2 is the most important of my professional career, it will obviously take priority of the ATD. The Laval Chiefs is a nice team I definitely didn't had last in the division, and I know not arguing my case could hurt me. We'll see I guess.

 

[markrander87]

Until when can we argue on this serie? I definitely want to argue my case, especially some of the things I've read! However, I'm short on time this week, the next 2 is the most important of my professional career, it will obviously take priority of the ATD. The Laval Chiefs is a nice team I definitely didn't had last in the division, and I know not arguing my case could hurt me. We'll see I guess.

No worries man, life does take precident to the ATD and im willing to wait till whenever you have time to discuss the match-up. You are a great ATD GM with a great track record, so I think a couple of extra days shouldnt be an issue.

 

[raleh]

Until when can we argue on this serie? I definitely want to argue my case, especially some of the things I've read! However, I'm short on time this week, the next 2 is the most important of my professional career, it will obviously take priority of the ATD. The Laval Chiefs is a nice team I definitely didn't had last in the division, and I know not arguing my case could hurt me. We'll see I guess.

Uh, EB, arguing your case is the most important part of your professional career.

You ARE a professional ATD GM, right?

 

[markrander87]

A couple notes on our starting goalies

Roy "Shrimp" Worthers

Shrimp Worters is probably the smallest player ever to play in the NHL. Height and weight records from the earliest days are a bit sketchy, but no first-hand accounts have ever disputed Worters' distinction. Shrimp stood all of 5'3" and never weighed more than 130lbs

He also never got a chance to really prove himself in the playoffs due to these bad teams. He only played in 11 playoff games, never winning the Stanley Cup.

Lorne "Gump" Worsley

The trade salvaged Gump's legacy as a loveable goalie on a terrible team to a legacy of Stanley Cup championships and a Hall of Fame nod. Worsley backstopped the Habs to Stanley Cup championships in 1964-65, 1965-66, 1967-68 and 1968-69. He was selected to the NHL's First All-Star Team in 1968 and to the Second Team in 1966.

 

[jarek]

He also never got a chance to really prove himself in the playoffs due to these bad teams. He only played in 11 playoff games, never winning the Stanley Cup.

What are you trying to prove by posting this? That Worters never had a chance to shine? First hand accounts of his play back in the day show that he was single handedly willing his teams to victory. They couldn't win because they were that bad.

 

[markrander87]

What are you trying to prove by posting this? That Worters never had a chance to shine? First hand accounts of his play back in the day show that he was single handedly willing his teams to victory. They couldn't win because they were that bad.

Are you serious?? Anybody with half a brain would clearly see that he hasn't proved that he is playoff tested. How can can you say Worters is a playoff performer when he only played 11 games with no cup finishes. I though the whole purpose of the ATD is factual evidence, not "what-If's" .

What if he played on a better team? We will never know, so therefore their is no factual evidence saying he is a playoff performer. NO PROOF

Your trying to tell me that if you and seventies were facing his team you wouldnt bring up the fact that his starting goalie has a career playoff record of 3-6-2? Of course you are

 

[Leafs Forever]

I think EB or someone else needs to shed some light on how Worters performed in the few playoffs games he did play, as W-L can be highly deceiving on how a goaltender really performed in the playoffs.

 

[jarek]

Are you serious?? Anybody with half a brain would clearly see that he hasn't proved that he is playoff tested. How can can you say Worters is a playoff performer when he only played 11 games with no cup finishes. I though the whole purpose of the ATD is factual evidence, not "what-If's" .

What if he played on a better team? We will never know, so therefore their is no factual evidence saying he is a playoff performer. NO PROOF

Your trying to tell me that if you and seventies were facing his team you wouldnt bring up the fact that his starting goalie has a career playoff record of 3-6-2? Of course you are

What LF said. Worters as a playoff goalie is a virtual unknown. Until someone sheds some light on him as to how well he did play in those playoff games, noone will know what kind of playoff goalie he really was. Until then, I'll think him as a below average playoff goalie. I give him some benefit of the doubt because he took really bad teams into the playoffs by himself.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

I think EB or someone else needs to shed some light on how Worters performed in the few playoffs games he did play, as W-L can be highly deceiving on how a goaltender really performed in the playoffs.

Worters really is a big question mark in the playoffs, especially against a guy like Lemieux.

A question mark is better than known bad, however.

It's a shame that it looks like EB won't have the time to defend Worters in detail. He's usually good at things like that.