ATD 2011 Draft Thread VIII

[jarek]

arrbez/vecens takes Daniel Sedin.

PM'ing Nalyd.

 

[Nalyd Psycho]

I wasn't choked to see McKenzie go because he was the last good third line right winger, I was choked because he was the penultimate good third line right winger. And I swear I am not trying to recreate the 1920's Vancouver Millionaires. I'm just drafting the best players available.

The Minnesota Fighting Saints are pleased to select a tough two-way clutch goal scorer. Alf Skinner, RW

 

[Dreakmur]

I'm going to be soon, so can anybody take a list?

 

[DoMakc]

I'm going to be soon, so can anybody take a list?

yes.

 

[Dreakmur]

yes.

Thanks.

List sent to you and Wonderbra

 

[markrander87]

Cincinnati is proud to select C/LW Red Berenson

Red Berenson

6’0 185lbs
1X Stanley Cup Winner (1965)
6X All Star Game Participant (1965,1969,1970,1971,1972,1974)
Member of Team Canada 1972 Summit Series
2X Top 10 goals (1969,1970)
1X Top 10 Assists (1969)
2X Top 10 Points (1969,1970)
2nd in PP Goals (1969)
3rd in SH Goals (1964)
Captain of St. Louis Blues (1970-1971,1976-1978)
“Rotating Captain” For Detroit Red Wings 1973-1974

Hart Voting:

1968-69:

1. P. Esposito 133
2. J. Beliveau 47
3. B. Orr 44
4. R. Berenson 38
5. B. Hull 12
5. G. Howe 12

1969-70 Hart:

1. B. Orr 156
2. T. Esposito 110
3. R. Berenson 12
4. S. Mikita 11
5. B. Park 7
6. P. Esposito 5
6. G. Howe 5

Player of the year voted by NHL Players:

1967-68:
West Div: Red Berenson
East Div: Stan Mikita

1968-69
West Div: Red Berenson
East Div: Phil Esposito

1969-1970
West Div:
1. Red Berenson
2. Phil Goyette

East Div:
1. Bobby Orr
2. Tony Esposito

Berenson almost instantly became a scoring threat once he arrived in the mid-west city. He finished the season with 51 points in 55 games with St. Louis. He was also instrumental in helping the Blues reach the Stanley Cup Finals in their very first year in the league!

By this time Berenson was the talk of St. Louis, and the League. His style of play and scoring success had put St. Louis on the hockey map and fans in the arena. Few St. Louis players were ever as popular as Red.

-GHL

A solid all-around performer, Gordon "Red" Berenson enjoyed 17 productive years in the NHL. He was a fine sportsman who could check or score equally well depending on the situation. Along the way he registered seven 20 goal seasons and played on one Stanley Cup championship team in Montreal.

Coach Scotty Bowman turned him into a true workhorse, playing him 35 to 40 minutes a game, including plenty of time with both specialty teams

St. Louis reacquired Berenson to anchor their checking line

-LOH
-----------------------------------
-Speedy, hard-shooting

-Scotty Bowman, general manager of the Blues said he wouldn’t of traded Berenson even-up for Boston Center Phil Esposito at this time a year ago (1970) Eliminates some of the "West Division" arguement.

http://news.google.com/newspapers?i...AAAIBAJ&pg=2475,1279566&dq=red+berenson&hl=en

 

[DoMakc]

The McGuire’s Monsters select Arkady Chernyshev, coach.

 

[nik jr]

Jokerit selects D Rod Seiling.

 

[Rick Middleton]

I've never even heard of this guy so I hope there's a good reason you took him.

Google is your friend.

 

[Sturminator]

and sorry, but what does the "old method" tell us, exactly? Here are their four best points finishes:

Nevin: 8, 12, 19, 23 (9, 11, 11, 16 ES)
Balon: 10, 25, 26, 33 (3, 11, 17, 28 ES)

They really only have comparable best seasons. Nevin walks away with it after that. Extending the comparison past the 4th-best would be too embarrassing to Balon. But what about goals finishes, since Balon is such a better peak goal scorer?

Balon: 8, 9, 10, 24 (4, 8, 9, 10 ES)
Nevin: 7, 12, 14, 14 (5, 8, 10, 17 ES)

Sorry, that's enough to call Balon enough of a "better goal scorer" that they are "close" offensively? Please, don't make me laugh. (Nevin has an 18th in goals on top of this, too, and again, the dropoff for Balon is steep here beyond 4th-best)...

Hands up if you're convinced Balon is *close* to Nevin offensively!

Well done. You have just demonstrated how close they actually were offensively at even strength. Balon peaked a little higher as a goalscorer, but Nevin had a longer peak and was a somewhat better playmaker (though he wasn't that great a playmaker, himself). I don't think Nevin's production in his "lesser years" makes much difference here. You don't draft Bob Nevin for the time he spent in Los Angeles, but that is exactly what a large part of your earlier analysis (and my frustration) depended upon (three of Nevin's seven scoring finishes above your magical 47 point barrier were in LA, and were not significant scoring numbers for the time).

I find your movement towards career numbers as an important criteria when evaluating ATD players in general quite...troubling. Most of the time you sound like you're making hall of fame arguments. Are we really drafting these players for what they did in their 10th best seasons? I understand that consistency is important and do not believe that only a player's absolute peak should be considered when making evaluations, but I am still mostly interested in peak - its quality, consistency and duration - not the seasons on either end of it. You seem to have been slowly moving away from this method - toward favoring players who were less valuable at their peaks, but rather very good for a long time. I recall your pimping of Syd Howe and Dean Prentice in past drafts, and now we have John Bucyk and Bob Nevin.

I dunno, seventies...I value consistency, as well, but at what point do we hit diminishing returns? At what point does consistency turn from setting a floor against bad play to setting a ceiling against great play? I think we have some fundamental philosophical differences here, and while you may think I hard sell some players, I find your assumption of correctness as to the standards we all should use in evaluating players at times rather arrogant.

-----------------------------------

Comparing Nevin and Balon defensively is hard because they played different defensive roles. There is a general point here that needs to be made about special teams roles in the O6 and expansion eras - something maybe a lot of posters here don't know. Roles were actually much more commonly split in this era. It was quite normal for a player to have responsibilities at even strength that did not carry over into his special teams roles. This era was, in many ways, actually more specialized than modern day hockey, I think in large part because it was commonplace for teams to have as many checking forwards and defensive defensemen as they could possibly want (due to the small number of teams in the league, there were always plenty of this type of player available in the minors), and the best defensive forwards were often spared penalty killing duties for this reason. This started to change in the mid-70's.

Henri Richard and Norm Ullman are probably the best examples of this phenomenon. Both were great two-way players at even strength, and both were barely used as penalty-killers during their primes because it was considered a waste to wear out such great players with penalty killing duties when plugger_x and plugger_y could go in and skate themselves to death for a couple of minutes on the PK and do nearly as good a job as the star, who would then be there to take the first faceoff at even strength. It's unfortunate that we don't have special teams icetime numbers from most of the O6 era because they would shock a lot of people. Stars were simply not often used as penalty killers.

Why is this important to us? Well, because the Bulldog Line falls into this same category for the period in which Balon and Nevin played together in New York. The Rangers coach at the time stacked the Bulldog Line with his best two-way players at even strength, and filled his penalty kill mostly with pluggers. I believe the leading Rangers forward in PK minutes during the relevant period is actually Glen Sather (yeah...the player, who I don't think anyone is going to draft). Now, Bob Nevin was no plugger, but he was getting very light checking duty at even-strength, which is probably why his coach considered it acceptable to use Nevin on the PK.

This all fits into another general problem I have with your use of statistics lately - that being your use of PK icetime as a standard for judging a player's defensive value. This is a reasonable enough standard for modern players, but you seem to apply it equally to the late O6 and expansion eras, and it is simply not appropriate in that context. Nevin's heavy PK icetime was actually something of a stigma in his New York days. Now, I'm not really sure why Nevin wasn't the right wing on the Bulldog Line. He was definitely a better even strength two-way player than the actual right wing of the line, though that guy was an excellent checker.

At any rate, though, PK icetime for players in this period is a terrible indicator of actual defensive value (I have seen you calling a somewhat fringe player of this time one of the greatest defensive forwards in history because of his inordinate PK icetime) and cannot be taken at anything close to modern face value.

Balon was used as a top even-strength checker everywhere he played in his career. In Montreal, he was the left wing of the Henri Richard line and in New York on the Bulldog Line. I can't say for sure what his role was in Minnesota, but at any rate, Balon's even-strength offense was compiled in a primarily checking role. The same is not true of Bob Nevin at least in New York and for the expansion teams; I can't say how he was used in Toronto. The point here should be obvious. Nevin has more value than Balon as a penalty killer (because he was actually used in that role), but Balon had much greater defensive responsibilities at even strength, which must be taken into account when we compare their production.

 

[Velociraptor]

I've never even heard of this guy so I hope there's a good reason you took him.

You've never heard of Ogrodnick? He was a great player for the Wings in the 80's, I think it's a bit of a reach, but BraveCanadian is right in saying he's one of the better scoring LWer's available, and he definitely deserved a promotion from the MLD to a 40-team ATD.

 

[Dwight]

For the record, even if papershoes picks soon, I won't be picking until I get home from school...so about 2:00ish. Sorry

 

[papershoes]

For the record, even if papershoes picks soon, I won't be picking until I get home from school...so about 2:00ish. Sorry

kenora selects:

percy lesueur (g)​

...i'll post more later, just extremely busy right now

 

[Dreakmur]

The McGuire’s Monsters select Arkady Chernyshev, coach.

Not sure why I just woke up... but thanks for making my pick.

I'm happy to get Chernyshev.

Despite being a Soviet, I think he's one of the "safest" coaches to select. He's definately a players' coach, so he can mesh well with any types of players. My main offensive star, Andy Bathgate clashed with Punch Imlach because of his tough style, so I really wanted to avoid a "tough" coach.

In addition to that, it appears that he was a very strong tactician. He was a thinking-man's coach. My team will surely be well-prepared for any match-up.


Here is his bio:
http://hfboards.com/showpost.php?p=31654503&postcount=125

One thing I was surprised to learn was that in the Tarasov-Chernyshev coaching duo, it was actually Chernyshev who was the head coach.

 

[Dwight]

Thank you! When I drafted tarasov/chernyshev on LC, everyone told me it had to be Tarasov as re head, but according to The Big Red Machine, it was Chernyshev who was the official head coach.

And yes, he was definitely a players coach, and was very successful on his own aswell

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

But it is safe to say Lehman should have been a starter before this draft.

Yes, absolutely. What makes Hap Holmes better than Lehman? Hell, what makes George Hainsworth better than Lehman?

Let's hope that never comes up. My first thoughts are that if it does, the person who sent the list should have left a bigger list, or given it to more than one person, or given it to a person who guaranteed they would be around.

I personally wouldn't want to see the list taker punished, under the "good samaritan act".

Agreed. Sometimes people are way too quick to want to punish. You start punishing list takers, nobody will want to take a list again.

If you don't send your list to more than one person, it's kind of your own fault if you get skipped. I've definitely woken up to lists sent to me 12 hours ago that I didn't ask for. Which is fine and responsible of the list sender, but if I got docked for something, I would not be happy.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Chicago Steelers select John MacLean, RW

Terrible, terrible coach. Your team is doomed.

Oh, you got the player? Solid pick then.

arrbez/vecens takes Daniel Sedin.

PM'ing Nalyd.

I like the value of Daniel a lot better here than I do Henrik several hundred picks earlier, considering the entire difference between them is basically a 25 game stretch due to a single injury.

I wasn't choked to see McKenzie go because he was the last good third line right winger, I was choked because he was the penultimate good third line right winger. And I swear I am not trying to recreate the 1920's Vancouver Millionaires. I'm just drafting the best players available.

The Minnesota Fighting Saints are pleased to select a tough two-way clutch goal scorer. Alf Skinner, RW

Solid pick.

Cincinnati is proud to select C/LW Red Berenson

Red Berenson

6’0 185lbs
1X Stanley Cup Winner (1965)
6X All Star Game Participant (1965,1969,1970,1971,1972,1974)
Member of Team Canada 1972 Summit Series
2X Top 10 goals (1969,1970)
1X Top 10 Assists (1969)
2X Top 10 Points (1969,1970)
2nd in PP Goals (1969)
3rd in SH Goals (1964)
Captain of St. Louis Blues (1970-1971,1976-1978)
“Rotating Captain†For Detroit Red Wings 1973-1974

Hart Voting:

1968-69:

1. P. Esposito 133
2. J. Beliveau 47
3. B. Orr 44
4. R. Berenson 38
5. B. Hull 12
5. G. Howe 12

1969-70 Hart:

1. B. Orr 156
2. T. Esposito 110
3. R. Berenson 12
4. S. Mikita 11
5. B. Park 7
6. P. Esposito 5
6. G. Howe 5

Player of the year voted by NHL Players:

1967-68:
West Div: Red Berenson
East Div: Stan Mikita

1968-69
West Div: Red Berenson
East Div: Phil Esposito

1969-1970
West Div:
1. Red Berenson
2. Phil Goyette

East Div:
1. Bobby Orr
2. Tony Esposito







-GHL








-LOH
-----------------------------------
-Speedy, hard-shooting

-Scotty Bowman, general manager of the Blues said he wouldn’t of traded Berenson even-up for Boston Center Phil Esposito at this time a year ago (1970) Eliminates some of the "West Division" arguement.

http://news.google.com/newspapers?i...AAAIBAJ&pg=2475,1279566&dq=red+berenson&hl=en

Solid pick, but those "best player of the Western division" awards were basically by default, as the West was basically all expansion teams (when was Chicago added to the West?)

 

[Dreakmur]

Yes, absolutely. What makes Hap Holmes better than Lehman? Hell, what makes George Hainsworth better than Lehman?

Hap Holmes is a excellent play-off performer. I don't thinik he's better than Lehman, but I'd be more comfortable with him in the play-offs.

Hainsworth isn't better.

Agreed. Sometimes people are way too quick to want to punish. You start punishing list takers, nobody will want to take a list again.

If you don't send your list to more than one person, it's kind of your own fault if you get skipped. I've definitely woken up to lists sent to me 12 hours ago that I didn't ask for. Which is fine and responsible of the list sender, but if I got docked for something, I would not be happy.

Don't like punishments, eh? You're getting punished for that!

 

[Sturminator]

Hap Holmes is a excellent play-off performer. I don't thinik he's better than Lehman, but I'd be more comfortable with him in the play-offs.

What do we know specifically about Lehman's playoff issues? We know that his teams went to the finals four times and won once, but that's no different from Harry Lumley.

 

[jarek]

Lehman might have a worse ratio of winning in the playoffs than Dick Irvin. He was in Stanley Cup series like 33 times.

 

[seventieslord]

I wasn't choked to see McKenzie go because he was the last good third line right winger, I was choked because he was the penultimate good third line right winger. And I swear I am not trying to recreate the 1920's Vancouver Millionaires. I'm just drafting the best players available.

The Minnesota Fighting Saints are pleased to select a tough two-way clutch goal scorer. Alf Skinner, RW

Good pick. Love Skinner's clutch scoring.

Cincinnati is proud to select C/LW Red Berenson

Red Berenson

6’0 185lbs
1X Stanley Cup Winner (1965)
6X All Star Game Participant (1965,1969,1970,1971,1972,1974)
Member of Team Canada 1972 Summit Series
2X Top 10 goals (1969,1970)
1X Top 10 Assists (1969)
2X Top 10 Points (1969,1970)
2nd in PP Goals (1969)
3rd in SH Goals (1964)
Captain of St. Louis Blues (1970-1971,1976-1978)
“Rotating Captain†For Detroit Red Wings 1973-1974

Hart Voting:

1968-69:

1. P. Esposito 133
2. J. Beliveau 47
3. B. Orr 44
4. R. Berenson 38
5. B. Hull 12
5. G. Howe 12

1969-70 Hart:

1. B. Orr 156
2. T. Esposito 110
3. R. Berenson 12
4. S. Mikita 11
5. B. Park 7
6. P. Esposito 5
6. G. Howe 5

Player of the year voted by NHL Players:

1967-68:
West Div: Red Berenson
East Div: Stan Mikita

1968-69
West Div: Red Berenson
East Div: Phil Esposito

1969-1970
West Div:
1. Red Berenson
2. Phil Goyette

East Div:
1. Bobby Orr
2. Tony Esposito

-GHL

-LOH
-----------------------------------
-Speedy, hard-shooting

-Scotty Bowman, general manager of the Blues said he wouldn’t of traded Berenson even-up for Boston Center Phil Esposito at this time a year ago (1970) Eliminates some of the "West Division" arguement.

http://news.google.com/newspapers?i...AAAIBAJ&pg=2475,1279566&dq=red+berenson&hl=en

Solid pick at this point.

I think I heard recently that he could play the point on the PP as well.

Jokerit selects D Rod Seiling.

solid pick, underrated player IMO.

Agreed. Sometimes people are way too quick to want to punish. You start punishing list takers, nobody will want to take a list again.

If you don't send your list to more than one person, it's kind of your own fault if you get skipped. I've definitely woken up to lists sent to me 12 hours ago that I didn't ask for. Which is fine and responsible of the list sender, but if I got docked for something, I would not be happy.

I would be livid!

Don't like punishments, eh? You're getting punished for that!

Where's Modo when you need him? "That's a paddlin'..."

Lehman might have a worse ratio of winning in the playoffs than Dick Irvin. He was in Stanley Cup series like 33 times.

What do you mean, "ratio of winning in the playoffs"?

Sturm's right, we don't really know how Lehman performed in the playoffs, just that his team lost. He was consistently known as the best goalie in the PCHA; I don't think that he suddenly got worse in the playoffs and Holmes got better. It's possible, but the fact that one kept winning the cup and one only did once, is very weak evidence of that.

 

[jarek]

Sturm's right, we don't really know how Lehman performed in the playoffs, just that his team lost. He was consistently known as the best goalie in the PCHA; I don't think that he suddenly got worse in the playoffs and Holmes got better. It's possible, but the fact that one kept winning the cup and one only did once, is very weak evidence of that.

As in, ratio of getting in and not winning the cup.

 

[seventieslord]

As in, ratio of getting in and not winning the cup.

how many times did he get into the playoffs and how many times did he win the cup? Sounds like a pretty normal ratio, probably less than one SD from the mean if we were to calculate such a ratio for every player.

 

[jarek]

how many times did he get into the playoffs and how many times did he win the cup? Sounds like a pretty normal ratio, probably less than one SD from the mean if we were to calculate such a ratio for every player.

I think he got into the playoffs like 10 times, didn't he?

 

[seventieslord]

I think he got into the playoffs like 10 times, didn't he?

Do the two-game PCHA playoffs count as the "playoffs", really?