The Canadiens’ advantages & strategy
Strategy. Given that I have home ice advantage, I will play may top line against the Rockets’ bottom line four times this series. I find it unlikely that Red Sullivan would be able to maintain his scoring pace (two years as a top-ten scorer) facing off against Bryan Trottier, which means the Rockets will have to sacrifice some of their depth scoring (unless they want a wide-open Trottier/Sullivan match-up, which I would welcome). Trottier was also an excellent face-off winner
(source) which means my team’s scoring line will usually have an advantage in number of possessions. Furthermore, Tkachuk was at best an indifferent defensive player and he would be unable to match Bure’s great speed. This should allow my best goal-scorer a lot of room to maneuver against a much slower power forward. Vasiliev will use his excellent playmaking ability to set up Bure on rushes down the right wing.
I will match our second lines – as I argue later, my second line forwards have a big advantage in playoff scoring and Gilmour/Tikkanen will provide aggressive forechecking, big hits and solid two-way play. I will play the Howe/Chara pair with Gilmour’s line. This way Chara’s average speed is not a liability (as it would have been against the speedy Morenz/Ovechkin duo) and Howe & Mosienko can use their speed together to create an aggressive transitional offense.
I will match my fourth line against the Rockets’ top line. Although nobody can completely shut down a Morenz/Geoffrion duo, my Westfall-Sanderson-Marcotte line has a combination of speed, toughness and disciplined positional play that should contain them. Westfall “quickly established himself as a top defensive forward, combining intellect and speed to shut down the opposition's top gunners”
(source) while Sanderson “was as tough as nails, a tremendous forechecker and faceoff specialist and, with Ed Westfall, the top penalty killer of his era” (
source). Marcotte was a “great two-way player and penalty killer who could dish out bone-jarring hits” (
source). Sanderson’s advantage on face-offs will reduce the amount of time the Morenz line has the puck; the line’s physical play should wear out Morenz and Geoffrion, who have already played two tough rounds.
Offensive depth. I think a comparison of our second and third lines shows that the Canadiens have an advantage in secondary scoring. Yes, the Rockets have two-thirds of the Kid Line. However, they replaced the line’s best player, five-time goal-scoring leader Charlie Conacher, with Tod Sloan, a solid player but not a dominant scorer by any means. In the playoffs, nobody on the Rockets’ second line can match Gilmour’s consistently excellent performances (1st in ’86, 2nd in ’93, 4th in ’94, 5th in ’89). In the regular season Tikkanen was a very marginal scoring talent but he transformed into an offensive leader (3rd, 4th,, 5th and 6th place finishes in goal-scoring) in the playoff. Even if we ignore the fact that Gilmour and Tikkanen also spent time killing penalties and were aggressive hitters & forecheckers, I believe I have the two best playoff performers on either second line.
The players on the Rockets’ third line spent a combined two years in the top ten in scoring. Yes, Duff was a good playoff performer but he was never a consistent, elite offensive talent. If the Rockets want him to take chances offensively, then it will open up a lot of room for Bure, and I’d be very happy with that trade-off. Toppazzinni was a good PKer and a solid checker but his career high of 50 pts (20th in the league) is nothing special. MacLeish, to his credit, does have two years as a top-ten scorer. In contrast, my third line features Dick Irvin (a four-time WCHL all-star who finished in the top five in goals & top ten in scoring four times). As soon as he switched to the NHL (1927) he led the league in assists and was second only to Bill Cook in scoring. Irvin is re-united with his LW George Hay, the four-time WCHL all-star, who finished in the top five in goals & points five times in the WCHL & NHL. When GBC discussed the Rocket’s strategy, he mentioned that they would line-match against the Trottier and Gilmour lines. Will the Rockets fatigue their top defensemen by making them double-shift against my dangerous third line? Or will they allow my fast, high-scoring WCHL stars to match up against their third defense pair?
Defensive depth. Although the Rockets likely have the best defenseman in the series, the Canadiens have three of the top four blueliners. I think few would disagree that Savard, Vasiliev and Howe are the three best defensemen in this series (though the order is debatable). However I want to establish that Chara is #4 in this series. Chara has consistently been an excellent penalty killer – since the NHL started tracking PK ice time in 1998, only Lidstrom, Chelios and Pronger have spent more time killing penalties (
source). Adjusted for era or not, Chara is clearly larger and stronger than Thomson and Vasko (and is more disciplined too). Chara isn’t a conventional offensive threat but he won the fastest slapshot competition at the all-star game in 2007 & 2008 (
source) and has scored more goals than every defenseman except one since 2003 (which establishes he’s clearly better offensively than Vasko and is likely comparable to Thomson). Chara has ranked 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 7th in Norris voting (
source) and his three all-star berths match Thomson & Vasko combined. Plus/minus is a limited statistic, obviously, but Chara has placed 1st, 3rd, 4th and 9th in plus/minus on the Senators in the playoffs – which suggests that it’s unfair to blame their PO failures on their best defensive defenseman. I think Chara is consistently underrated in the ATD forum and has already accomplished more than Thomson and Vasko.
Having three of the top four defensemen in this series means that Savard will be overworked while my Habs can enjoy a less strenuous, more even distribution of ice time. I feel confident limiting Howe and Vasiliev to 25-27 minutes per game (since they can each share the toughest assignments with another top-100 all-time plyer) – Savard does not have that luxury. This is an especially large advantage given that my team is well-rested, having only played one series so far (admittedly it was against a tough team, though the fact that it was in the same city reduces some of the stress/fatigue). The Rockets have already been through two difficult series and have had to deal with a long intercontinental travel schedule, which can take its toll as they enter their third round.
Countering le Rockets’ advantages & strategy
Goaltending. I disagree that Hasek was a “roller coaster” in the playoffs. To quote myself from the last matchup: “Since he became a starter in 1994, only twice (in ten years) did Hasek have a save percentage below 91.5% in the playoffs (once in 1995, and once at age 43 last year). Only three times did he have a GAA above 2.10”. But I know you were mostly concerned with Hasek’s attitude. I’ll concede he acted foolishly in 1997 (earning a three-game suspension for attacking a reporter) but I think that the Hasek “distraction” in 2006 was overhyped; he “bailed” on his teammates because he didn’t play while injured; had he played through injury and performed poorly (see Thornton in ’04) he would have been criticized anyway. Expecting a 41 year old goalie to miraculously save a franchise that had a history of underperforming in the playoffs was unrealistic; I feel Hasek was used as a scapegoat by the underperforming Sens.
Actually, I think that there’s an interesting contrast between Hasek and Worsley. When Worsley was the starter on a poor team (1953-1963), he earned no personal accolades and was eliminated in the first round of the playoffs all four years he qualified (never having a GAA below 3.28). When Hasek was the starter on a poor team (1994-2001), he won two Harts, six Vezinas and dragged a team led by Alexei Zhitnik, Mike Peca and Miro Satan to the Stanley Cup finals. (Just to be clear, Worsley’s Rangers were likely better than Hasek’s Sabres. Worsley had seven full years of prime Bill Gadsby, a Norris year from Doug Harvey, and almost the full prime from Andy Bathgate). This highlights the goaltending advantage in this series – Worsley accomplished nothing of note on a weak NYR team (where he played until age 33) while Hasek proved to be an all-time great playing on an even weaker franchise.
Speed. It would be difficult to argue that either team has a major advantage in speed. Hay
(source), Mosienko (
source),
(source), Westfall
(source), Vasiliev
(source), Bure and Ozolinsh (no sources necessary) were all excellent skaters.
Coaching. I concede that the Rockets have a slight advantage in coaching. Arbour is the #2 coach of all-time on my list, and Day is in the 4-7 range. As GBC himself wrote, “there isn't much separating the top seven or eight coaches” so this shouldn’t have a major impact on the series.
Overall. GBC and raleh have, like always, built a tough and talented team. I think my advantages in goal, secondary scoring, and high-end defensemen will allow me to prevail in a seven-game series.
