(Assumptions aside) Grzelcyk Vs. Clifton might surprise you.

[Dennis Bonvie]

I have said from day one that Cliffy is a better d-man than the credit he receives. Gryz is injury prone and Cliffy just seems to absorb the heavy hard hits and feeds off of it. He is a great skater and can carry the puck better than Grz. Cliffy does deserve more playing time on the PP but will Cassidy allow it. Cassidy seems to have his favorites and I never cared for a coach who shows partiality. If you have earned the time then give it and I don't see that with Butch.

You need to be able to handle the puck well, be able to make plays and read the play in the offensive zone to play on the power play. I don't think Clifton is much of a candidate for that job.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

If gryz is your #4 defender then you are in a good spot. His salary around the league is right where #4 defenders are paid. Problem was he was forced into a top line role much of the year and in the playoffs.

Everyone here can sit here and compare clifton and gryz head to head stats, but realistically the aren’t really comparable at all because the reality is gryz was going up against opposing teams top two lines the majority of the time while clifton was going against opposing teams bottom two lines.

I have no problem moving on from gryz, but I’m not exposing him in the draft. I’d rather keep him and package him in a deal. He has much more trade value around the league than clifton, who at the start of the year didn’t even crack the bruins top 6 and wouldn’t have been playing if it weren’t for injuries.

Detroit, NJ and LA are probably best candidates
to make a deal pre expansion as #48 would slot in their
top 3 D protected. Maybe #48 for a 2nd and 3rd in
2021 draft.

 

[Aussie Bruin]

I wonder what people think of Reilly vs. Gryz. Do they see a significant gap between these two players?

Your suggestion of signing Reilly to leave Gryz exposed is actually pretty good if we say the two players are fairly similar overall in terms of where they are best suited and what do they bring to the table.

Sign Reilly, let Seattle take Gryz, and now you've protected the rest of your roster and your probably no worse off if the two players are about equal.

I haven't seen that suggested around here before but it's actually a sound idea. I like it.

It's an interesting question. Here are the postseason 5v5 stats, for completeness' sake, of all our defenders who played at least 5 games in the playoffs:

Player	GP	TOI	CF	CA	CF%	SF	SA	SF%	GF	GA	GF%	xGF	xGA	xGF%	SCF	SCA	SCF%	HDCF	HDCA	HDCF%	Off. Zone Faceoff %	On Ice SV%
Charlie McAvoy	11	208.87	267	200	57.17	143	104	57.89	12	6	66.67	13.1	7.81	62.65	146	95	60.58	49	29	62.82	55.22	94.23
Mike Reilly	11	223.10	243	196	55.35	123	91	57.48	7	4	63.64	8.83	6.97	55.89	102	97	51.26	33	21	61.11	56.52	95.6
Matt Grzelcyk	11	187.48	223	172	56.46	112	97	53.59	7	9	43.75	11	7.4	59.79	119	82	59.2	40	32	55.56	53.85	90.72
Connor Clifton	10	156.82	147	131	52.88	71	73	49.31	6	6	50	6.41	4.45	59	70	59	54.26	26	21	55.32	32.95	91.78
Brandon Carlo	8	143.32	139	131	51.48	68	68	50	2	2	50	4.45	4.87	47.71	51	59	46.36	17	12	58.62	47.62	97.06
Jeremy Lauzon	7	114.50	100	100	50	54	52	50.94	5	8	38.46	4.34	3.5	55.39	49	49	50	22	15	59.46	41.94	84.62

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Firstly to point out the obvious - McAvoy 'wins' everything. Best corsi numbers, best chance, shots and goals in favor numbers, best expected goal and high danger chance figures. Big minutes. For all that I still see him as a work in progress who has some areas to improve in, it's clear he's already an elite D.

Reilly is interesting. Firstly I was surprised at just how many 5v5 minutes he had - even more than Chucky. And his numbers are pretty decent. It's clear he didn't tilt the ice in the Bruins' favor as much as Charlie and Gryz, but he was better defensively than Gryz. Gave up fewer shots and most importantly fewer high danger chances and fewer goals. That defensive aspect is probably better than many might have expected or realised. He's not as good a puck mover as Gryz, but he definitely does have ability in that area, and his more solid defensive stats perhaps do bring him into the conversation as to whether he gives you better value than Matt. I think I still favor Gryz, even with the higher salary, but I think you could at least plausibly argue the alternative.

Looking at Clifton, the first thing that struck me is how much he was used in his own end - just 33% offensive zone starts, while McAvoy, Gryz and Reilly were all in the 50s. Even Carlo had more offensive starts. With that in mind, it's no wonder that his corsi, shot and chance numbers are below those of the first 3 guys. But I think they're still reasonable, and the fact that he still 'beat' Gryz and was even competitive with McAvoy in terms of high danger chances and goals against allowed shows you his value in that role.

Carlo's stats likewise reflect his shutdown expertise and are about what you would expect. Lauzon's are not pretty, no doubt about it. I think it's safe to say he found the going difficult. But I wouldn't want to be too harsh on him either - whether it's for him or any of the others, these advanced stats only tell you so much and you certainly have to factor in other things, including just sheer bad luck. Still makes for interesting reading though.

 

[shelbysdad]

A little change of direction....Does Seattle draft to ice the best possible team or draft players which have the highest possible return at the trade deadline, piling up picks in the next few years.

Also we mostly speculate we will lose a D, but who knows how they rate our D against who else is available...They may say well they are 16 D we like, but only 10 F, and one of them is on Boston

Could be a supply based pick.........

 

[JoeIsAStud]

A little change of direction....Does Seattle draft to ice the best possible team or draft players which have the highest possible return at the trade deadline, piling up picks in the next few years.

Also we mostly speculate we will lose a D, but who knows how they rate our D against who else is available...They may say well they are 16 D we like, but only 10 F, and one of them is on Boston

Could be a supply based pick.........

It is a mix, but I suspect the vast majority of players they pick will be players they plan to try and field a team with over the next couple of years, but at the same time if they get the opportunity to pick a player who could potentially be a big time trade asset at the deadline they may jump on that in some situations.

But let's say they are looking at a roster like Boston, there just isn't going to be that type of player available. So I don't think they will be sitting there and saying, we might be able to flip Nick Ritchie for a 3rd, or we could maybe get a 2nd and a 4th if we flip Gryz. I suspect it will be more about what pick they are able to make to field a team for next year.

So while we may sit here and debate whether Lauzon or Cliffy are going to be lost. It could be that Seattle find 3 or 4 LHD that they like better than Lauzon who are unprotected, but maybe there are few RHD of value, so that could make Cliffy more valuale. Or maybe there is a lack of slow fat guys in the draft, and thus they need to jump on Ritchie

 

[bme44]

A little change of direction....Does Seattle draft to ice the best possible team or draft players which have the highest possible return at the trade deadline, piling up picks in the next few years.

Also we mostly speculate we will lose a D, but who knows how they rate our D against who else is available...They may say well they are 16 D we like, but only 10 F, and one of them is on Boston

Could be a supply based pick.........

It easily could be a supply based pick ,but having said that. It is up to Bruin management to set there protected list in a way that it forces Seattle to pick the player they are most comfortable loosing. Many factors go into this. Players skill,Age, Players salary,players future potential,how difficult is it to fill the void of loosing X player, If the Bruins goal is to take another run at the cup . Is this a player that can excel in playoff hockey. The playoffs is a different game ,a much heavier game than regular season.

 

[The National]

A little change of direction....Does Seattle draft to ice the best possible team or draft players which have the highest possible return at the trade deadline, piling up picks in the next few years.

Also we mostly speculate we will lose a D, but who knows how they rate our D against who else is available...They may say well they are 16 D we like, but only 10 F, and one of them is on Boston

Could be a supply based pick.........

In this case I don’t think Seattle’s strategy is relevant, Boston shouldn’t leave a player exposed who has more value than one they protect. Even if they wanna move on from Grz(which I don’t think they do), it would make more sense to protect and trade him as you can get a higher return than a Clifton.

 

[kjpm]

(Assumptions aside) here's some numbers that agree with my assumptions

 

[finchster]

I wonder what people think of Reilly vs. Gryz. Do they see a significant gap between these two players?

Your suggestion of signing Reilly to leave Gryz exposed is actually pretty good if we say the two players are fairly similar overall in terms of where they are best suited and what do they bring to the table.

Sign Reilly, let Seattle take Gryz, and now you've protected the rest of your roster and your probably no worse off if the two players are about equal.

I haven't seen that suggested around here before but it's actually a sound idea. I like it.

Ugh why?

Reilly is a FA. Seattle won't pick him if he isn't signed. If the plan is to sign Reilly and trade Grzelcyk, then sign Reilly after the draft and then you have Grzelcyk for a trade instead of losing him for nothing. If the Bruins make a trade for a good LHD, a roster player needs to go back the other way- Clifton and Lauzon doesn't add any value but I bet Grzelcyk does in a trade.

I don't hate the idea of signing Reilly and trading Grzelcyk. assuming the Bruins can get a real upgrade.

 

[easton117]

With the exception of Carlo, Miller, and Reilly, all Bruins defencemen have been on the ice for more goals against than scored. I mean, that's what happens when you lose playoff series.

Player	TOI	GF	GA	Sv%
McAvoy	498:30	19	24	0.904
Grzelcyk	403:13	11	18	0.900
Carlo	378:19	10	10	0.944
Clifton	271:12	9	11	0.902
Reilly	230:07	7	4	0.958
Lauzon	197:40	7	14	0.859
Krug	236:12	6	11	0.893
Chara	212:46	6	10	0.915
Miller	54:46	3	3	0.893
Tinordi	48:07	0	0	1.000
Moore	14:49	0	1	0875

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Source: Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Should the Bruins trade everyone with the exception of Carlo, Reilly, and Miller? Or maybe it is easier to admit that things like goals for, goals against, and Sv% also depend on your secondary unit scoring and your goalie saving shots? Looking at these stats, few come out smelling of roses.

While it is useful and shows Grzelcyk might be asked to do too much, I have been yelling the Bruins need to get a 20 minute defencemen since the start of and throughout the season.

Annual Grade the Deadline Thread 2021


Zdeno Chara IV


So I am not saying Grzelcyk is the top-two LHD the Bruins need, but I think he can be a top four guy in the right grouping regardless of his height. If the Bruins had a player like Ekholm, I think we can roll with Grzelcyk in the top four.

After stepping away a little bit and looking at that list, I wouldn’t lose sleep about losing anyone off that list outside of McAvoy.

Actually I’d lose more sleep trying to convince myself that group would get a team out of the second round.

 

[BruinDust]

Ugh why?

Reilly is a FA. Seattle won't pick him if he isn't signed. If the plan is to sign Reilly and trade Grzelcyk, then sign Reilly after the draft and then you have Grzelcyk for a trade instead of losing him for nothing. If the Bruins make a trade for a good LHD, a roster player needs to go back the other way- Clifton and Lauzon doesn't add any value but I bet Grzelcyk does in a trade.

I don't hate the idea of signing Reilly and trading Grzelcyk. assuming the Bruins can get a real upgrade.

Yeah that is true. And your right about Gryz's trade value, it's a bit short-sighted to give that away in Expansion (which has been my argument for weeks re: Debrusk and Ritchie. and protecting both).

 

[Tbaybruin]

Matt Grzelcyk is a saving grace for this team when it comes to transitional play and driving possession in the right direction. Everyone wants to get bigger and badder and stronger, but I still don't think players like Grzelcyk is why this team lost or has been losing series. I think it's what happens when there's a lack of competition in the lineup and a lack of willingness to cut ties with veterans who mirage this idea of a "safety net" like Wagner and Kuraly.

I mean, yeah Grzelcyk had one really bad game and that was definitely an ugly one, especially given his uncharacteristic unforced turnovers. That said, how did all the big players fair in the lineup this postseason?

Miller, cheap-shotted and knocked out.
Lauzon, banged up from his rugged style of play and clearly not 100%.
Carlo, biggest defender and knocked out by a smaller player.
Zboril, bigger than Grzelcyk and also knocked out of the lineup.
Ritchie, just a minimal impact in two series that were tailored to his skillset.

It's clearly an unpopular opinion, but I still maintain the Bruins didn't lose because of size. They lost because they had two legitimately horrible options on L4 (Kuraly and Wagner) being routinely caved in each time they were on the ice. Cassidy was essentially throwing anytime he put them out there and the analytics back that up. Nick Ritchie, Charlie Coyle (injured, in his defense) and Jake DeBrusk were all in the same boat as well. Size is certainly something relevant to the NHL, but so is transition and play-driving from the backend.

The team lacked assertion, hustle and conviction outside of L1 and L2. It's not about being the biggest and baddest players on the ice, it's about being desperate to win and I just didn't see enough of that from this group this year or even in 2019 against the Blues (Especially on home ice in Game 7). Rask being injured obviously didn't help because he couldn't be the backbone for as many desperation saves as he would usually make given his detrimental injury.

I don't want Cassidy fired because I think he's a good coach, but I would certainly bring up Jay Leach to assist him on the bench for next season because that's a guy who's players seldom–if ever–take a night off on the ice. Cassidy's coaching and personnel decisions certainly played a decision in what happened this post season, as did injuries, bad luck and stagnating players. It's always easy to blame the small defensemen and GM though.

Leaving Matt Grzelcyk exposed would ensure that Seattle would take him. Even if they didn't want him, they would just turn around and trade him for something significant in value. This fanbase's hatred for smaller players, especially defensemen, is sometimes outrageous.

Even from a pure hockey standpoint and roster building angle, I would 100% protect Grzelcyk over Clifton. If I'm Seattle, I would take Clifton in a heartbeat, but I would take Grzelcyk even quicker if he were to be available.

4th line was horrible but Kuraly was a great playoff guy in the past. Good as gone now.aa

 

[Colt.45Orr]

Kuraly used to be a beast in the playoffs. He was great that Sens series etc... but he doesn't play with that speed or enthusiasm anymore. He's a(nother) guy who has lost his way.

Which isn't a great look for Cassidy, omo.

 

[bruinmann77]

If the Bruins can find a trade Partner for Griz they should move him

 

[UncleRico]

This board never ceases to amaze me sometimes. People really have the sentiment that clifton should be protected over gryz and Frederic should be protected over Ritchie and debrusk lol

 

[Beesfan]

All 32 teams would take Grizz and his contract over Clifton at $1m. Wasn't he ranked in the top 50 d by ESPN or NHL.com?

Clifton is becoming massively overrated. He's great as a sub, but his play drifts off big time when pressed into full time duty. I thought Kampfer was just as good.

 

[dredeye]

I’d protect Clifton easily over Gryz

 

[bruinmann77]

Sorry but the Bruins have a lot of guys in the system that fit the griz mold.

 

[member 96824]

Sorry but the Bruins have a lot of guys in the system that fit the griz mold.

Ahcan(incredibly unproven) and then who?

I feel the complete opposite. We have a plethora of defenders that can play bottom pair minutes like Clifton. Clifton, Zboril, Lauzon, Vaak, Moore, along with anyone they pick up for depth like Kampfer and Tinordi for example, but no one who can play up in the top 4 like Gryz has proven.

 

[bruinmann77]

Ahcan(incredibly unproven) and then who?

I feel the complete opposite. We have a plethora of defenders that can play bottom pair minutes like Clifton. Clifton, Zboril, Lauzon, Vaak, Moore, along with anyone they pick up for depth like Kampfer and Tinordi for example, but no one who can play up in the top 4 like Gryz has proven.

Cooper Zach

 

[UncleRico]

Ahcan(incredibly unproven) and then who?

I feel the complete opposite. We have a plethora of defenders that can play bottom pair minutes like Clifton. Clifton, Zboril, Lauzon, Vaak, Moore, along with anyone they pick up for depth like Kampfer and Tinordi for example, but no one who can play up in the top 4 like Gryz has proven.

Not only that, but Lauzon would be selected over clifton so you wouldn’t even have to worry about protecting clifton. Clifton couldn’t even crack the lineup if it weren’t for injury and when he did, he went up against opposing teams bottom 6. Gryz was matched up against top 6s of opposing teams much more than clifton.

On top of that Gryz holds much more trade value, so even if he wasn’t in the teams plans for next year, you protect him to get value for him.

Clifton has almost no trade value around the league.

 

[member 96824]

Cooper Zach

Oh..not really in our system since his deal was AHL only... Divver did say he anticipates he'll get an NHL deal this summer, but no guarantee it's with Boston.

 

[Lobster57]

If the Bruins can find a trade Partner for Griz they should move him

i read this like 3 times as "CAN'T find a trade partner" and had the snarkiest of remarks in the chamber... good thing i took that 4th read.

 

[Colt.45Orr]

This board never ceases to amaze me sometimes. People really have the sentiment that clifton should be protected over gryz and Frederic should be protected over Ritchie and debrusk lol

Never ceases to amaze me that an adult could read a legit argument then have to dumb it down to their own level so that they can mock it.

Yes, Gryz is more valuable than Clifton in a 1-1 vacuum.

I'm arguing that Gryz is less valuable than Clifton + 2,800,000 in cap space to go towards another player/roster hole.

Obviously this is all dependant on Sweeney spending the gained cap space intelligently and advantageously....

 

[BruinsJoe]

First I would like to thank Colt.45Orr for your insightful posts on this .

For me if you can sign Reilly for under 2mil leaving Gryz exposed is a no brainier.

McAvoy LD ??5milplus solid physical 2 way D

Carlo Reilly
Clifton Lauzon

workable and affordable top six , this leaves Zboril as your 7th.

I know you have to find that first pairing LD ,but they are out there . Don do your job.

This also allows you money to address the forwards in particular the bottom six.
Come trade deadline address any areas that need to be improved for a long playoff run

Too weak with Reilly on the top 4, and too soft pairing D