Around the NHL 2023-2024

[The Note]

Tampa just didn’t have the depth this year. Their bottom pairing was not nearly good enough IMO.

Speaking of Tampa, there’s a main board thread about the Jeannot trade. It looked bad when it happened and has somehow gotten worse. I have no idea what they were thinking and it’s hard not to feel like the 5(!!) picks they traded - including next year’s first - could’ve been used to actually help the team in some meaningful way.

Hard to nitpick too much of what Tampa has done in recent years but that’s just a horrendous use of resources.

 

[Ranksu]

Mikkola doing fine Florida. Damn we really had good d-core, but Army did wrong and Bad moves.

 

[Drubilly]

Mikkola doing fine Florida. Damn we really had good d-core, but Army did wrong and Bad moves.

He no midget D mansssssss!

 

[WeWentBlues]

Speaking of Tampa, there’s a main board thread about the Jeannot trade. It looked bad when it happened and has somehow gotten worse. I have no idea what they were thinking and it’s hard not to feel like the 5(!!) picks they traded - including next year’s first - could’ve been used to actually help the team in some meaningful way.

Hard to nitpick too much of what Tampa has done in recent years but that’s just a horrendous use of resources.

Poile/Trotz must have compromising pictures of JBB. Kind of funny how a lot of Central division teams have preferred trade partners. Chicago and Columbus, Colorado and Buffalo, Tampa and Nashville. Looking like our preferred trade partner might be Detroit and I'd say we're losing that battle. Doug Armstrong must be on the "do not answer the phone" list for alot of these GMs

 

[Spektre]

Tampa just didn’t have the depth this year. Their bottom pairing was not nearly good enough IMO.

Full credit to the cats. They are going to be a very tough out.


How so?

He played a horrible game. He made lots of defensive gaffes and took the bad penalty. His bad play directly led to the 3rd goal.

 

[STL fan in MN]

Speaking of Tampa, there’s a main board thread about the Jeannot trade. It looked bad when it happened and has somehow gotten worse. I have no idea what they were thinking and it’s hard not to feel like the 5(!!) picks they traded - including next year’s first - could’ve been used to actually help the team in some meaningful way.

Hard to nitpick too much of what Tampa has done in recent years but that’s just a horrendous use of resources.

Then there’s this trade where they traded 2 1sts plus other assets to the Hawks for Brandon Hagel.

Brandon Hagel • 2022 fourth round pick (#103-Kenny Connors) • 2024 fourth round pick (?-?) to Lightning for • Taylor Raddysh • Boris Katchouk • first round pick (protected top 10 in 2023, else unprotected in 2025) (2023 #19-Oliver Moore) • first round pick (protected top 10 in 2024, else unprotected in 2026) (?-?) on 2022-03-18

Hagel ended up being good but was his value really that high at the time of the trade? He had 61 pts in his first 108 games in the league.

Seems to me that Tampa really honed in on a couple guys and were willing to overpay to get them. Now it’ll cost them.

 

[Reality Czech]

He played a horrible game. He made lots of defensive gaffes and took the bad penalty. His bad play directly led to the 3rd goal.

Petro gonna be the highest paid 3D in the league next year. Hanifin and Theodore will pass him on the depth chart.

 

[The Note]

Then there’s this trade where they traded 2 1sts plus other assets to the Hawks for Brandon Hagel.



Hagel ended up being good but was his value really that high at the time of the trade? He had 61 pts in his first 108 games in the league.

Seems to me that Tampa really honed in on a couple guys and were willing to overpay to get them. Now it’ll cost them.

With Hagel at least I can see the thought process. What they viewed to be an ascending player scoring more in increased opportunities on a cheap deal. It’s the kind of thing that’s an overpay but for a team that’s all in I can at least understand it. And it wasn’t just a pure rental, they had years of team control.

The Jeannot move was always bizarre because he pretty clearly seemed like a bottom 6 guy that went on a shooting % heater for a year. And they weren’t even buying-in during that time! He’d already gone back to the guy he’d always been when they sold a whole draft to get him. Just very odd.

 

[Brian39]

Then there’s this trade where they traded 2 1sts plus other assets to the Hawks for Brandon Hagel.

Hagel ended up being good but was his value really that high at the time of the trade? He had 61 pts in his first 108 games in the league.

Seems to me that Tampa really honed in on a couple guys and were willing to overpay to get them. Now it’ll cost them.

I think the answer is absolutely.

At the time of the trade, he had 21 goals in 55 games as a 23 year old in his 2nd NHL season. He was already good at stripping pucks off people and had some of the best possession numbers on a bad Chicago team. Besides being a genuinely good 23 year old, his contract status was gold. He was in year 1 of a 3 year deal with an AAV of just $1.5M.

A 25+ goal scorer under contract at $1.5M per year for 2.5 seasons is worth a ton in a flat cap league.

Tampa added a young top 6 player making just $1.5M for 3 playoff runs while in a win-now window. That is absolutely worth a high cost. His play since the acquisition has demonstrated that they correctly evaluated his talent. He is 63rd in goals and 75th in points league-wide since joining the Lightning. 39th in even strength goals and 26th in even strength points over that same stretch. He's a takeaway machine and has great possession metrics as well.

That is massive value at just $1.5M against the cap and is well worth the high acquisition cost to pry him out of a rebuilding team who was in zero rush to move him. I don't see any argument that this was an overpay.

And it isn't like they only got him for the rest of that contract. He was set to be an RFA at the end of it and they extended him for 8 years. The new cap hit that will kick in next year is far from the bargain that he's on now, but $6.5M AAV in a now-rising cap is perfectly fair for a guy that produces like him. That deal goes through his age 33 season, so it isn't like they bought a bunch of years where he's expected to be washed.

 

[Brian39]

Petro gonna be the highest paid 3D in the league next year. Hanifin and Theodore will pass him on the depth chart.

Possibly. But so far we've seen no indication of that.

Hanifin and Petro have played almost every second of their 5 on 5 time together in this series and they seem extremely committed to giving all 3 guys big minutes. Hanifin and Theodore have edged out Petro's PP minutes (and will continue to do so), but Petro is (rightfully) trusted ahead of both of them on the PK.

This is Petro and Theodore's 4th year together in Vegas and so far Petro has played at least 1 minute a night more than Theodore in each regular season and playoff year. That includes the 4 games this playoffs where Petro has been stapled to the Knights brand new top pair D man acquisition. Theodore has yet to earn a letter in Vegas despite being there since year 1 and Vegas has continued to heavily shelter Theodore in terms of both zone starts and quality of competition.

To date, I haven't seen anything to suggest that Theodore is on the verge of passing Petro on the depth chart. Father time will eventually force Petro down the lineup, but assuming it happens next year is far from a safe bet.

I think it is equally likely that Vegas moves on from Theodore as it is that the usage will change enough that you can say that Petro is 3rd on the depth chart. Theodore is going to demand a huge raise on a max-term deal next summer and I can see an argument for moving him instead of giving it to him. I wouldn't, but I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility.

 

[STL fan in MN]

I think the answer is absolutely.

At the time of the trade, he had 21 goals in 55 games as a 23 year old in his 2nd NHL season. He was already good at stripping pucks off people and had some of the best possession numbers on a bad Chicago team. Besides being a genuinely good 23 year old, his contract status was gold. He was in year 1 of a 3 year deal with an AAV of just $1.5M.

A 25+ goal scorer under contract at $1.5M per year for 2.5 seasons is worth a ton in a flat cap league.

Tampa added a young top 6 player making just $1.5M for 3 playoff runs while in a win-now window. That is absolutely worth a high cost. His play since the acquisition has demonstrated that they correctly evaluated his talent. He is 63rd in goals and 75th in points league-wide since joining the Lightning. 39th in even strength goals and 26th in even strength points over that same stretch. He's a takeaway machine and has great possession metrics as well.

That is massive value at just $1.5M against the cap and is well worth the high acquisition cost to pry him out of a rebuilding team who was in zero rush to move him. I don't see any argument that this was an overpay.

And it isn't like they only got him for the rest of that contract. He was set to be an RFA at the end of it and they extended him for 8 years. The new cap hit that will kick in next year is far from the bargain that he's on now, but $6.5M AAV in a now-rising cap is perfectly fair for a guy that produces like him. That deal goes through his age 33 season, so it isn't like they bought a bunch of years where he's expected to be washed.

Fair enough. I just don’t like seeing the Hawks benefit is all.

 

[Reality Czech]

Possibly. But so far we've seen no indication of that.

Hanifin and Petro have played almost every second of their 5 on 5 time together in this series and they seem extremely committed to giving all 3 guys big minutes. Hanifin and Theodore have edged out Petro's PP minutes (and will continue to do so), but Petro is (rightfully) trusted ahead of both of them on the PK.

This is Petro and Theodore's 4th year together in Vegas and so far Petro has played at least 1 minute a night more than Theodore in each regular season and playoff year. That includes the 4 games this playoffs where Petro has been stapled to the Knights brand new top pair D man acquisition. Theodore has yet to earn a letter in Vegas despite being there since year 1 and Vegas has continued to heavily shelter Theodore in terms of both zone starts and quality of competition.

To date, I haven't seen anything to suggest that Theodore is on the verge of passing Petro on the depth chart. Father time will eventually force Petro down the lineup, but assuming it happens next year is far from a safe bet.

I think it is equally likely that Vegas moves on from Theodore as it is that the usage will change enough that you can say that Petro is 3rd on the depth chart. Theodore is going to demand a huge raise on a max-term deal next summer and I can see an argument for moving him instead of giving it to him. I wouldn't, but I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility.

I was half joking but clearly he's slipping. Gotta wonder if they'd rather trade Petro instead of Theodore if not for that pesky NMC. Theodore put up 9 more points than Petro in 17 fewer games, so it's fair to ask if he'll soon pass Petro on the depth chart. Does anyone still think Petro is worth almost $9 million per year at this point?

Go Stars go!

 

[Blueston]

I was half joking but clearly he's slipping. Gotta wonder if they'd rather trade Petro instead of Theodore if not for that pesky NMC. Theodore put up 9 more points than Petro in 17 fewer games, so it's fair to ask if he'll soon pass Petro on the depth chart. Does anyone still think Petro is worth almost $9 million per year at this point?

Go Stars go!

i think petro perhaps isn't worth his contract today, almost certainly won't be worth it going forward, and vegas will most likely be looking to move him before contract expires. all reasons why we were dubious to give him the $9mm contract he sought. nonetheless, he also was clear 1d on last year's Cup team, so even if he gives Vegas nothing more it was still great move by them to sign him.

 

[ezcreepin]

Poile/Trotz must have compromising pictures of JBB. Kind of funny how a lot of Central division teams have preferred trade partners. Chicago and Columbus, Colorado and Buffalo, Tampa and Nashville. Looking like our preferred trade partner might be Detroit and I'd say we're losing that battle. Doug Armstrong must be on the "do not answer the phone" list for alot of these GMs
View attachment 862242

Army's trade partner is Toronto full stop. In just pure trades, we have 9 with them and 6 with Detroit. I think taken into context over the years, both sides seem to have had fair trades (both for us and Toronto/Detroit). We've probably edged Toronto with the Polak-Gunnar trade, but it seems to be pretty even. FOr Detroit, sure they get Walman, but Fabbri is hurt nearly every year and Husso has not been good. They get out from some cap, but we get Leddy, Kaskimaki, and maybe a forward in Vorobyov. I think taken as a whole, it's pretty even.

 

[Brian39]

Theodore put up 9 more points than Petro in 17 fewer games, so it's fair to ask if he'll soon pass Petro on the depth chart.

Krug put up 9 more points than anyone on our blueline this year and 13 more points than Parayko but no one would remotely suggest that it's moving him up the depth chart.

Krug played against noticeably harder competition and with much less offensively skewed usage than Theodore did this year. Theodore is a much, much better player than Krug, but he is very much playing the sheltered role in Vegas (and dominating in that role). He had the 6th toughest quality of competition among the regular D men on the Vegas blue line and the most offensive deployment. Again, he crushed it in that role and none of this is a knock against him.

But usage matters. Matchups matter. Defending matters. Killing penalties matters.

Petro got by far the highest quality of competition in Vegas this year. He got matchup against elite talent at the same frequency as Parayko/Leddy (albeit with much more favorable zone start rates).

Petro's job this year was to match up against the other team's top line.

Theodore's job was to cave in easy competition.

Again, I'm not knocking Theodore. He had a great season and is earning himself a hell of a pay day. But I'm not sold that excelling in the highly sheltered role makes him a candidate to do the job of an all-situation #1. This is the 2nd straight year that Vegas has split the load like this and Theodore has been great in that role. But they are very intentionally playing him to maximize his strengths, which has meant Petro getting more and harder minutes.

Does anyone still think Petro is worth almost $9 million per year at this point?

Go Stars go!

Petro hasn't been worth the AAV this year, but he was worth every penny and more in the playoffs last year. He's also had 3 (and arguably 4) deep playoff runs in his career where he found an extra couple gears in the playoffs from what he brought in the regular season. His first 4 playoff games have been underwhelming this year, but he is also freshly back from an appendectomy that caused him to miss the last 7 (and 13 of the last 15) games of the season.

I'm not at all ready to declare him washed and so far Vegas is still giving Theodore the sheltered deployment while Petro eats the hard minutes. That could absolutely change, but the jury is still well out for me. I'm rooting for Dallas, but I won't be at all surprised if Vegas comes out of this series and winds up making another deep run with Petro leading the team in minutes.

Looking forward, Theodore should be looking to get paid. They may prefer 8 years of Theodore to Petro's remaining 3, but Petro isn't going anywhere. That NMC and AAV was the cost to bring in the #1 D that brought the franchise its Cup. They don't win that Cup without Petro and part of that bill is that you are stuck with him for the decline. I think that they will buy out the final year of his deal if he still wants to play (the contract is structured to make a buyout feasible in the final season), but even then they would still have to make at least 1 year work while paying Petro $8.8M, Hanifin $7.35M and Theodore whatever raise he gets.

I would make that work if I were them, but I also see a scenario where Theodore wants too much money and they move him this summer for a haul. I could see an intelligent hockey operations department having major concerns about how Theodore's play will translate in the all-situations role he will eventually have to take on if they pay him like a #1. They are wizards with the cap, but finding another Petro (and extending Eichel) while paying Hanifin and Theodore $18M is a hell of a tough ask.

I see the logic in selling Theodore to recoup some of the assets lost in the last few months, relying on Petro/McNabb to give you 1-2 more years of shutdown top 4 play and then trying to find/develop young D in the bottom half of the lineup for 1-2 years with the goal that they eventually take the reigns from McNabb/Petro (along with a high priced acquisition you pick up when the timing is right). That plan sounds more like Vegas than giving Theodore the bag after acquiring/extending Hanifin (who has a lot of the same strengths as Theodore).

 

[PocketNines]

The biggest cheerleader of the moron who let Petro walk is delighting in his wishful, wistful argument that Petro is declining, AFTER another Cup was secured. My god the pathos of it

 

[Xerloris]

Krug put up 9 more points than anyone on our blueline this year and 13 more points than Parayko but no one would remotely suggest that it's moving him up the depth chart.

Krug played against noticeably harder competition and with much less offensively skewed usage than Theodore did this year. Theodore is a much, much better player than Krug, but he is very much playing the sheltered role in Vegas (and dominating in that role). He had the 6th toughest quality of competition among the regular D men on the Vegas blue line and the most offensive deployment. Again, he crushed it in that role and none of this is a knock against him.

But usage matters. Matchups matter. Defending matters. Killing penalties matters.

Petro got by far the highest quality of competition in Vegas this year. He got matchup against elite talent at the same frequency as Parayko/Leddy (albeit with much more favorable zone start rates).

Petro's job this year was to match up against the other team's top line.

Theodore's job was to cave in easy competition.

Again, I'm not knocking Theodore. He had a great season and is earning himself a hell of a pay day. But I'm not sold that excelling in the highly sheltered role makes him a candidate to do the job of an all-situation #1. This is the 2nd straight year that Vegas has split the load like this and Theodore has been great in that role. But they are very intentionally playing him to maximize his strengths, which has meant Petro getting more and harder minutes.



Petro hasn't been worth the AAV this year, but he was worth every penny and more in the playoffs last year. He's also had 3 (and arguably 4) deep playoff runs in his career where he found an extra couple gears in the playoffs from what he brought in the regular season. His first 4 playoff games have been underwhelming this year, but he is also freshly back from an appendectomy that caused him to miss the last 7 (and 13 of the last 15) games of the season.

I'm not at all ready to declare him washed and so far Vegas is still giving Theodore the sheltered deployment while Petro eats the hard minutes. That could absolutely change, but the jury is still well out for me. I'm rooting for Dallas, but I won't be at all surprised if Vegas comes out of this series and winds up making another deep run with Petro leading the team in minutes.

Looking forward, Theodore should be looking to get paid. They may prefer 8 years of Theodore to Petro's remaining 3, but Petro isn't going anywhere. That NMC and AAV was the cost to bring in the #1 D that brought the franchise its Cup. They don't win that Cup without Petro and part of that bill is that you are stuck with him for the decline. I think that they will buy out the final year of his deal if he still wants to play (the contract is structured to make a buyout feasible in the final season), but even then they would still have to make at least 1 year work while paying Petro $8.8M, Hanifin $7.35M and Theodore whatever raise he gets.

I would make that work if I were them, but I also see a scenario where Theodore wants too much money and they move him this summer for a haul. I could see an intelligent hockey operations department having major concerns about how Theodore's play will translate in the all-situations role he will eventually have to take on if they pay him like a #1. They are wizards with the cap, but finding another Petro (and extending Eichel) while paying Hanifin and Theodore $18M is a hell of a tough ask.

I see the logic in selling Theodore to recoup some of the assets lost in the last few months, relying on Petro/McNabb to give you 1-2 more years of shutdown top 4 play and then trying to find/develop young D in the bottom half of the lineup for 1-2 years with the goal that they eventually take the reigns from McNabb/Petro (along with a high priced acquisition you pick up when the timing is right). That plan sounds more like Vegas than giving Theodore the bag after acquiring/extending Hanifin (who has a lot of the same strengths as Theodore).

Haven't you heard? it's about what you've done for me lately. Last year no longer matters.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I’m just saying if you add 82 games of ROR to this team, we are playing right now.

If he does like you think he will. Which - if he does that, yeah, we're probably in the playoffs. But, we have no idea if he does. He's not playing with Filip Forsberg or Roman Josi here, so he's almost certainly not going near 26-43-69. For all we know, last season's 12-7-19 is a sign of things to come and he's a slightly better Kevin Hayes this season and doesn't get to 40 points.

This is literally every hypothetical people bring up: assume what would have happened, treat it as fact with no proof it would have happened, draw conclusions accordingly. At the end of the discussion, no one knows if any of those assumptions would have been correct.

Remember, this is the guy who was lauded the last few years for his great leadership qualities, who watched this team severely underachieve and couldn't will guys to play semi-inspired hockey most nights. You're counting on that to be a one-off thing and he goes back to being a "great captain" and gets this team to play better, when this team still couldn't get its head out of its ass until it finally got Berube fired.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Theodore put up 9 more points than Petro in 17 fewer games, so it's fair to ask if he'll soon pass Petro on the depth chart.

I assumed Theodore was ahead of Petro on the depth chart.

Does anyone still think Petro is worth almost $9 million per year at this point?

At this point? Probably not. Just like Schenn isn't worth $6.5 million per year at this point. But, it's entirely possible he's still dealing with getting up to speed from appendicitis and the resulting surgery. And, Vegas got a Cup from him so there's an element of #worthit in there.

That said, Theodore is also scoreless right now in the postseason - in fact, the only defenseman with any points is Brayden McNabb (2-2-4) - and Hanifin has looked particularly terrible at times. If I'm looking for reasons Vegas coughed up a 2-0 lead at home, Pietrangelo doesn't even make an HM in my top-5.

 

[Mike Liut]

If he does like you think he will. Which - if he does that, yeah, we're probably in the playoffs. But, we have no idea if he does. He's not playing with Filip Forsberg or Roman Josi here, so he's almost certainly not going near 26-43-69. For all we know, last season's 12-7-19 is a sign of things to come and he's a slightly better Kevin Hayes this season and doesn't get to 40 points.

This is literally every hypothetical people bring up: assume what would have happened, treat it as fact with no proof it would have happened, draw conclusions accordingly. At the end of the discussion, no one knows if any of those assumptions would have been correct.

Remember, this is the guy who was lauded the last few years for his great leadership qualities, who watched this team severely underachieve and couldn't will guys to play semi-inspired hockey most nights. You're counting on that to be a one-off thing and he goes back to being a "great captain" and gets this team to play better, when this team still couldn't get its head out of its ass until it finally got Berube fired.

You make a good point…. He was terrible his last year here. Him and Tarasenko sucked horse balls

 

[mk80]

Bad night for the goalies in Raleigh, Anderson falls down near the end of the 2nd and the Islanders tie it on essentially an empty net....

Canes now score 2 in 8 seconds in the 3rd after Varlamov leaves the net to play the puck and hits off the glass to the front of a wide open goal

 

[The Note]

I have 0 faith in the Leafs forcing a 7th game but, as always, f*** Boston

 

[BlueDream]

Woll’s save on Frederic in the 3rd period looked absolutely identical to Binnington’s save on Nordstrom (I think it was) in game 7.

That was awesome. I’m still not optimistic for Toronto but hopefully they gain some momentum.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

In case anyone needs a reminder:

 

[oPlaiD]

I assumed Theodore was ahead of Petro on the depth chart.

At this point? Probably not. Just like Schenn isn't worth $6.5 million per year at this point. But, it's entirely possible he's still dealing with getting up to speed from appendicitis and the resulting surgery. And, Vegas got a Cup from him so there's an element of #worthit in there.

That said, Theodore is also scoreless right now in the postseason - in fact, the only defenseman with any points is Brayden McNabb (2-2-4) - and Hanifin has looked particularly terrible at times. If I'm looking for reasons Vegas coughed up a 2-0 lead at home, Pietrangelo doesn't even make an HM in my top-5.

Throwing out one metric I know I can access that rates player value (without any judgment on real accuracy), Dom's player cards on Athletic had Petro at a market value of $4.4m this year versus his $8.8m cap hit. In 2022 he had almost $4m in surplus value. I'd say this year was probably a down year given injuries and such, but some of that is simply the impact of age, but I think it's fair to say he should probably expect to be under his cap hit in value next season, but not by much.

For what it's worth, Theodore rated slightly higher in overall value than Petro in 2022-23 and was at the same level this year, so even given that it's probably fair to rate him similarly or maybe more highly than Petro. But it'd probably be an easy argument to make that Petro's presence has "unlocked" Theodore on some level.

Either way, no one is going to be angry about Petro's contract and the position it's put them in given the Cup win. And I don't think the contract will be something that prevents them from continuing to compete while he's in that uniform, either.