Around the League - Why can't our team be as much fun to watch as other teams?

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Arizona and Jersey win again! Buffalo loses. We are now 7 points ahead of Buffalo in the McEichel race with one less game played. It's looking pretty solid that at the halfway point of the season, we will be in the bottom 2.

Finishing next to last would be my worst nightmare. The odds of a team other than the worst or 2nd worst team winning the lottery this year is 66.5%!!! (20% chance for worst team, 13.5% for the 2nd worst team). If they finish next to last, odds are they end up picking 3rd in the draft.

I agree with estaalo though. This team will get healthy, face a lot of back-up goalies, be taken lightly, go on a run and end up drafting in the 5-8 spot.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Finishing next to last would be my worst nightmare. The odds of a team other than the worst or 2nd worst team winning the lottery this year is 66.5%!!! (20% chance for worst team, 13.5% for the 2nd worst team). If they finish next to last, odds are they end up picking 3rd in the draft.

I agree with estaalo though. This team will get healthy, face a lot of back-up goalies, be taken lightly, go on a run and end up drafting in the 5-8 spot.

According to sportsclubstats:

If the Canes go .500 down the stretch, there's a 96% chance that they'll finish in the bottom 4.

If the Canes go 15-25-6 down the stretch, there's a 95% chance that they'll finish in the bottom 2.

If the Canes go 11-29-6 down the stretch, there's a 90% chance that they'll finish dead last.

I don't think finishing in the 5-8 spot is at all likely.

I think finishing 2nd to last is highly, highly likely.

 

[GoldiFox]

Finishing next to last would be my worst nightmare. The odds of a team other than the worst or 2nd worst team winning the lottery this year is 66.5%!!! (20% chance for worst team, 13.5% for the 2nd worst team). If they finish next to last, odds are they end up picking 3rd in the draft.

I agree with estaalo though. This team will get healthy, face a lot of back-up goalies, be taken lightly, go on a run and end up drafting in the 5-8 spot.

Missing out on Eichel or McDavid would suck but there are worse things than going into the future with a Fleury-Hanifin top pairing or a 6'3" potential 1C in Strome.

What I am really afraid of is falling out of the top-4.

 

[the halleJOKEL]

if we dont get mcdavid or eichel i will be very g. d. disappointed

 

[What the Faulk]

IIRC a lot of the models if seen floating around have them finishing right on the 3/4 bubble, which would be so fitting for the last few years.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

According to sportsclubstats:

If the Canes go .500 down the stretch, there's a 96% chance that they'll finish in the bottom 4.

If the Canes go 15-25-6 down the stretch, there's a 95% chance that they'll finish in the bottom 2.

If the Canes go 11-29-6 down the stretch, there's a 90% chance that they'll finish dead last.

I don't think finishing in the 5-8 spot is at all likely.

I think finishing 2nd to last is highly, highly likely.

Oh ye of little faith. Remember the whole "Taylor/Tyler" thing from a few years back? On Dec 31st, 2009, the Carolina Hurricanes were LAST in the league with 27 points through 39 games. The next closest? Edmonton with 36 points in 40 games. The Canes were a Shoe-in to get one of the top two picks.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm?season=20142015&type=LEA&date=12/31/2009

And where did the Canes end up picking that season? #7.

Staal's will get healthy, Skinner will get hot, Semin will come back and start scoring, and the Canes will end up in the 5-8 spot. Book it. If I'm wrong, then so be it, but history has shown otherwise with this team. Until they show me differently, I won't believe otherwise.

 

[the halleJOKEL]

noooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

 

[Wolfpuck]

Oh ye of little faith. Remember the whole "Taylor/Tyler" thing from a few years back? On Dec 31st, 2009, the Carolina Hurricanes were LAST in the league with 27 points through 39 games. The next closest? Edmonton with 36 points in 40 games. The Canes were a Shoe-in to get one of the top two picks.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm?season=20142015&type=LEA&date=12/31/2009

And where did the Canes end up picking that season? #7.

Staal's will get healthy, Skinner will get hot, Semin will come back and start scoring, and the Canes will end up in the 5-8 spot. Book it. If I'm wrong, then so be it, but history has shown otherwise with this team. Until they show me differently, I won't believe otherwise.

Hopefully Francis sees the writing on the wall and pulls the trigger on at least trading Sekera and Tlusty. Worst case scenario (which means there's a decent chance of it happening) would be that they stay on the team for the duration, wreck the tank, then walk for nothing in the summer. That might be a breaking point for me.

Jordan Staal returning doesn't magically fix our offense, so there's still hope that this disaster of a season won't all be for nothing.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Hopefully Francis sees the writing on the wall and pulls the trigger on at least trading Sekera and Tlusty. Worst case scenario (which means there's a decent chance of it happening) would be that they stay on the team for the duration, wreck the tank, then walk for nothing in the summer. That might be a breaking point for me.

Jordan Staal returning doesn't magically fix our offense, so there's still hope that this disaster of a season won't all be for nothing.

As I said, I'll only believe it when I see it. In 2009-2010, JR traded all UFAs but Whitney (and he tried to trade him). Wallin, Cullen, AWardo, Walker, Corvo, Yelle, Alberts. Granted, Sekera is more valuable than those guys, but JR DID trade a bunch of UFAs to be that were regular line-up guys. They still ended up 7th.

 

[nobuddy]

As I said, I'll only believe it when I see it. In 2009-2010, JR traded all UFAs but Whitney (and he tried to trade him). Wallin, Cullen, AWardo, Walker, Corvo, Yelle, Alberts. Granted, Sekera is more valuable than those guys, but JR DID trade a bunch of UFAs to be that were regular line-up guys. They still ended up 7th.

Well yeah all of those players were ****ing terrible.

Sekera is really good and Tlusty is p good.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Well yeah all of those players were ****ing terrible.

Sekera is really good and Tlusty is p good.

Tlusty isn't much better than Matt Cullen, even at that stage. Those other fellas though, the definition of addition by subtraction.

 

[garnetpalmetto]

Tlusty isn't much better than Matt Cullen, even at that stage. Those other fellas though, the definition of addition by subtraction.

I was about to say I disagreed on Walker but I had forgotten how atrocious he was in the '09-'10 season. 5 points on 33 GP? Ouch. Still, my heart wants to give him a pass based on his actions less than a year prior.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

paajarvi cleared waivers what the hell

 

[Blueline Bomber]

There are worse things to happen to the team than drafting Hanifin instead of McEichel. As long as we finish the season in the bottom two spot, I'll be set. It means we get with McDavid or Eichel if the lottery goes as planned, or Hanifin if it doesn't.

There was an article in the N&O yesterday that should be considering though. It dealt with fancy stats, so I didn't understand most of it. But from what I could gather, the Canes should be winning a lot more games than they have been.

Fancy stats says we should make a run late in the season. Likely around March, when just about every game is a home game.

 

[Joe McGrath]

paajarvi cleared waivers what the hell

That's what usually happens when you aren't any good.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

That's what usually happens when you aren't any good.

he is very good and worth a pickup if nestrasil had multiple claims put in for him paajarvi should not have passed.

 

[Swag Surf Aho]

What's this talk of finishing strong? Tank for McDavid!

 

[the halleJOKEL]

forfeit the rest of our games ploease

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

forfeit the rest of our games ploease

trade everyone

everyone

every one

 

[What the Faulk]

There were fancy stats in the N&O today? I'm sure they weren't full of inaccuracies and misinterpretations at all.

They've kinda been treading water lately on that front. To be expected given the run of injuries.

 

[What the Faulk]

I know this is kind of a weird thread for this, but here's a model I was talking about earlier:

 

[Blueline Bomber]

There were fancy stats in the N&O today? I'm sure they weren't full of inaccuracies and misinterpretations at all.

They've kinda been treading water lately on that front. To be expected given the run of injuries.

Yesterday's paper. I think it took each team's point total after 25 games, took their Corsi (or Fenwick or some other fancy stat) to that point, and predicted who was likely to collapse and who would likely bounce back.

It predicted Calgary's collapse, said the Leafs are having unsustainable success, and out of all the bottom feeders (Buffalo, Phoenix, Columbus - remember, 25 games - Edmonton), Carolina had the best chance of bouncing back.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I know this is kind of a weird thread for this, but here's a model I was talking about earlier:

That's gotta be a week or two old, right? No way Buffalo's still ahead of Edmonton.

 

[What the Faulk]

That's gotta be a week or two old, right? No way Buffalo's still ahead of Edmonton.

His model weighs fancy stats pretty heavily. Overly long explanation here.

BB: Are you talking about the one by Phil Curry? If so, I tend to agree with him, but I think he made it a little more confusing than necessary by adding irrelevant numbers.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

That name sounds familiar, so it was probably him.