Around the League Part 7: Hey Avs, Throw Us a Bone

[CandyCanes]

I hope Duchene gets traded in like 18 minutes so this beating of this dead horse can finallyyyyy end. Plus I wanna see Duchene smile in his new headshot.

 

[Roboturner913]

Who cares about this guy, we have Derek Ryan

 

[Penaltykiller17]

I will just say I'm glad Joe Sakic is not Carolina's GM.

 

[A Star is Burns]

Have you seen his numbers from after the deadline? For as good as we all know Duchene to be, is there any excusing that? 16 games in March he scores 1 goal for 1 point and puts up a -16 rating. I know that players go through bad stretches, but you're of the opinion this is entirely coincidental as relative to the timing of the deadline? I don't think it's a forever indictment of his character to point out the obvious here.

Victor Rask had I think a 14 game pointless streak last year, Lindy has been trash every October/into November to a similar tune. If those guys aren't good enough, looks like Skinner had 2 points in his last 18 games a few years ago to finish the season in a year we weren't really in the race.

Duchene didn't do particularly well with Team Canada after the season. What reason did he have to quit on them?

Seems more likely that he had a poor end to the season period to me. Just like I don't think Skinner is a quitter either.

 

[GoldiFox]

https://www.fanragsports.com/mckenzie-valuation-divide-stalling-duchene-trade/

McKenzie on Duchene. Essentially says that GMs do NOT want to run into a Shattenkirk situation where a GM of a contending team is forced to trade an impact player because they refuse to sign with one year left. In that way, Duchene's value as a helpful roster piece only lasts one year before the acquiring GM inherits the exact same problem that Sakic is dealing with right now. No GM wants to pay out the ass for a pending headache.

“But nevertheless, the problem is the term. So when a team is trading for Matt Duchene, they say to themselves, ‘We’re getting a two-year player here because we don’t know if he’s going to re-sign with us.’ But in the way the CBA is interpreted now and the way that teams use that CBA, are you really getting a two-year player or are you getting a one-year player? And the reason I say that is because we all know that once a player gets to the final year of his contract, you’re eligible to extend him to a long-term deal.

“So let’s say a team that’s interested in Matt Duchene – let’s pull the Columbus Blue Jackets out of the hat for starters, they do have legitimate interest in Matt Duchene. So they call up and they say, ‘We’re interested in Duchene but we’re limited in terms of what we’re going to give you because we might trade for Matt Duchene right now, and a year from now we say to him ‘’Hey, we’d like to extend you to a long-term deal now,’’ and he goes, ‘’Ah, you know what? I’m not sure. I might just wait until I go to unrestricted free agency and see where I’m at. ’’ ‘

“So suddenly you paid significant assets for a player who a year from now is maybe not going to be prepared to commit to your team long term. And now you find yourself in the exact same situation Joe Sakic finds himself in trying to trade an asset that has diminishing value because of his contract situation.

“So it’s almost like a player becomes an unrestricted free agent a year before he becomes an unrestricted free agent, and therefore these teams are limited in terms of what they’re offering and Colorado is going, ‘I’m not trading him for that. He’s way better than that. We deserve way more than that.’ And teams are like, ‘Well, that’s all we’re prepared at this point to pay.’

“So that divide is making it difficult to get a deal done, in my opinion.”

 

[geehaad]

Who cares about this guy, we have Derek Ryan

Seriously though, who needs Matt Duchene and his 2 years worth of $6M salary, we've already got our #1 center.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

What difference does that make? I don't care if he got off a conference call with 12 other GM's that opened with, "Gentlemen, Duchene is on the table, bidding starts at 1st + blue chipper.", you look the reporter/interviewer in the eye and you lie through your teeth. "No, we are not shopping him."

I already said I didn't like how he handled that aspect of it so quit being such a dick about it. The only point I was making is that it's a lot easier to say something like that if it's true. I still think Sakic could have, and should have handled it better as I stated.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

I didn't mean to come off as a dick, so I'm sorry about that.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

McKenzie on Duchene. Essentially says that GMs do NOT want to run into a Shattenkirk situation where a GM of a contending team is forced to trade an impact player because they refuse to sign with one year left. In that way, Duchene's value as a helpful roster piece only lasts one year before the acquiring GM inherits the exact same problem that Sakic is dealing with right now. No GM wants to pay out the ass for a pending headache.

And I think that's where it depends on the team. I think a contending team or a big market team that can throw money at a Duchene will still be concerned, but not as concerned as a than a team like Carolina will. I remember when this Duchene rumor thread on the trade board first started, I said exactly that. That trading a young, cost controlled Hanifin for 2 years of Duchene didn't make sense. There were a number of Avs fans, one of them in particular, that said "GM's don't think that way" and "I've never heard that about a guy who still has 2 years left."

Then Friedman comes out and says that. Then Francis comes out and says that. And McKenzie, etc... etc.. I think it definitely affects the pool of potential teams willing to trade for him.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I didn't mean to come off as a dick, so I'm sorry about that.

No problem. Sometimes it's difficult to read intent in the written word so I apologize if I read the intent wrong.

I do agree with much of what you are saying on this topic, not all of it, but that's fine. There are clearly varying opinions on the matter.

 

[RodTheBawd]

And I think that's where it depends on the team. I think a contending team or a big market team that can throw money at a Duchene will still be concerned, but not as concerned as a than a team like Carolina will. I remember when this Duchene rumor thread on the trade board first started, I said exactly that. That trading a young, cost controlled Hanifin for 2 years of Duchene didn't make sense. There were a number of Avs fans, one of them in particular, that said "GM's don't think that way" and "I've never heard that about a guy who still has 2 years left."

Then Friedman comes out and says that. Then Francis comes out and says that. And McKenzie, etc... etc.. I think it definitely affects the pool of potential teams willing to trade for him.

You and everyone else with an ounce of sense. It was pages and pages of the same back and forth. I had to stop going into Duchene threads for that very reason.

 

[bleedgreen]

Have you seen his numbers from after the deadline? For as good as we all know Duchene to be, is there any excusing that? 16 games in March he scores 1 goal for 1 point and puts up a -16 rating. I know that players go through bad stretches, but you're of the opinion this is entirely coincidental as relative to the timing of the deadline? I don't think it's a forever indictment of his character to point out the obvious here.

I don't blame anyone for not watching the games, I had trouble getting through some of them. Tedious work watching the avs last month was. Everything that could've gone wrong went wrong. I assume you've seen the Blake Comeau lowlight on the breakaway? That's a microcosm of the whole season. The whole team imploded, there were articles about how down the locker room was. Duchene never quit on the ice, the problem was he couldn't hit water falling out of a boat. None of them could. Duchene is prone to confidence loss, it's happened before. Then he tries to do too much and it spirals. That was on display as someone else mentioned at the worlds. He was still off kilter.

It's hard to see people question his character and work ethic. This guy loves hockey in his soul and takes his team success to heart. He got beat up last season and it just kept getting worse. He didn't quit. Every game I saw he was busting his ass.

Honestly, they could bring back the same team healthy and they would get at least 20 more pts. They'd still have been bad, but not THAT bad. I like the direction they're headed in. They have to get through a couple of years of suck, making the changes as they come up. Reminds me of us when Francis took over. Took a couple of years to change the face.

The season started for them with their coach literally jumping ship because he didn't want to be associated with a bad team. Coward.

 

[RodTheBawd]

Welp, I can't say I watched more than a couple of Avs games, so I'll swallow it and defer to you on his effort.

 

[My Special Purpose]

https://www.fanragsports.com/mckenzie-valuation-divide-stalling-duchene-trade/

McKenzie on Duchene. Essentially says that GMs do NOT want to run into a Shattenkirk situation where a GM of a contending team is forced to trade an impact player because they refuse to sign with one year left. In that way, Duchene's value as a helpful roster piece only lasts one year before the acquiring GM inherits the exact same problem that Sakic is dealing with right now. No GM wants to pay out the ass for a pending headache.

OK, but here's the deal they're *not* mentioning.

Let's say it's worst-case scenario. We trade Hanifin for Duchene straight up. We get to July 1, 2018 and Duchene flat-out rejects any attempts by Carolina to negotiate an extension, saying he wants to test free agency in a year.

(For the sake of this particular argument, let's just say they both perform well enough in 2017-18 that neither team feels they got a raw deal. In other words, let's assume it's a fair trade on the ice and focus only on how Duchene's contract affects his value.)

From July 1, 2018 forward, any team considering a deal for Duchene *can* talk to him about contract terms, and even work out an extension as part of the deal. In other words, once he's a regular expiring contract player, cost certainty is back in the picture. In my opinion, it's much ado about nothing. Sure, worst case the acquiring GM may have to flip Duchene again during the 2018-19 season, but imagine having that chip at the trade deadline. You'd get a pick and prospect *for sure*, and that's *without* an extension. A lot of people are trying to use the "one year away from an extension" as a way to artificially deflate Duchene's value and it's just not true. Absolute worst case you get a season of Duchene, and a second season where you may have to trade him, but his value will be *higher* because he's not "one year from an extension" anymore.

(Again, ignoring how his performance will affect his value since we don't know and it's not important in this conversation. But even the most risk-averse among us have to acknowledge that Duchene's on-ice value probably isn't going down a whole lot from where it is currently.)

It's a made-up scenario that Duchene handcuffs the acquiring team if he decides not to resign. It's a bunch of gun-shy GMs (ours included) who don't want to be forced into the possibility of having to make a second trade, because they're all too scared to even make the first one.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

They're right to be gun-shy. If a GM flips Duchene at a later date, the return will most likely be a collection of lesser assets (see Burns, ROR, Spezza, etc.) The notion of trading Duchene with an extension agreed to ahead of time for a high-end return sounds good in theory, but that's a concept without a strong historical (at least recent) comparable.

If Carolina gives up Hanifin for Duchene now and then flips Duchene for an ROR-like return next Summer, the organization will have effectively given up quality for quantity. The goal should to get the best asset in a deal or series of deals, not give it up.

 

[geehaad]

It's a pretty simple equation, really.

Hanifin = 1st line forward
Duchene in 1.5 years = middling prospect + low 1st rounder
1st line F >>> mid-prospect + low 1st

Duh.

Furthermore, the Canes won't be in a position to trade their best C as they enter the playoffs two years from now.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I think the argument of "well, you can just trade him for a pick and a prospect at the deadline in 2 years if he won't re-sign" is flawed. Basically what geehaad said. Canes expect to be in the playoffs THIS year and certainly next. Why would you want to be in a spot where you have to trade a key player on a playoff team because you can't re-sign him while battling for a playoff spot? Yeah, teams, like St. Louis with Shattenkirk did it, but they had defensive depth to afford it and a history of making the playoffs already. That won't be the Canes position.

The value part geehaad summed up nicely so I won't repeat.

BTW...is theekevinc the user formerly known as totalkev?

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Yeah I'm with BBA. Never mind the fact that Colorado has had enough trouble moving him in the first place (very likely because the offered price has been lower than Hanifin across the board).

Now we take all that attention and stress onto ourselves?

 

[geehaad]

is theekevinc the user formerly known as totalkev?

After reading that post there was a doubt?

Interesting that the "who's the next captain" thread is shown to be created by totalkev, though. I wonder if that means the thread history will not reflect current usernames or if it's a migration shortcoming. I'd assume the posts themselves will carry the current username. EDIT: Confirmed. Posts made by "Lethargic" now reflect the new username "unsustainable".

 

[HisIceness]

Everything is confusing.

 

[HisIceness]

The Montreal boards could be a fun read this season. Lot of anger over there about them being winless so far in preseason play.

 

[My Special Purpose]

I think the argument of "well, you can just trade him for a pick and a prospect at the deadline in 2 years if he won't re-sign" is flawed. Basically what geehaad said. Canes expect to be in the playoffs THIS year and certainly next. Why would you want to be in a spot where you have to trade a key player on a playoff team because you can't re-sign him while battling for a playoff spot? Yeah, teams, like St. Louis with Shattenkirk did it, but they had defensive depth to afford it and a history of making the playoffs already. That won't be the Canes position.

The value part geehaad summed up nicely so I won't repeat.

BTW...is theekevinc the user formerly known as totalkev?

Keep in mind, that's "worst case." There is much more recent history that says that Duchene is very likely to re-sign with the acquiring team once he becomes eligible to sign an extension.

But even if you accept the worst-case scenario, if the Canes are en route to making the playoffs for a second time in two seasons with Duchene, haven't we already won the trade?

The bottom line is that although the salary cap and other things have made trading more complicated, the single biggest thing preventing trades these days is panic-stricken GMs who fear making mistakes. If the rest of the table is tight, you play loose.

And yes, it's totalkev. But different.

 

[HisIceness]

Duchene seems to be a big fan of Dogs. He and Slavin will get along quite nicely.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Keep in mind, that's "worst case." There is much more recent history that says that Duchene is very likely to re-sign with the acquiring team once he becomes eligible to sign an extension.

But even if you accept the worst-case scenario, if the Canes are en route to making the playoffs for a second time in two seasons with Duchene, haven't we already won the trade?

And yes, it's totalkev. But different.

Only if 1) you assume the Canes aren't making the playoffs unless they trade Hanifin for Duchene and 2) your goal is only to make the playoffs for the next 2 years.

 

[the halleJOKEL]

Duchene seems to be a big fan of Dogs. He and Slavin will get along quite nicely.

Don't you talk about mrs slavin that way!