Around the League - 2023 Offseason Edition

[95snipes]

Both of those leagues are inadequately run and don't have the proper funding/support to actually get to a USHL level. In fact, the NAHL leans into the idea they are now a feeder league for depth into the USHL. We need an WHL/OHL sort of split... not a OHL/OJHL split. NCDC is also an absolute joke... zero chance that can become a top tier league. A solution could be an expansion to a 24-26 team USHL league, but there doesn't seen to be much appetite for that.

The US simply needs more top tier junior spots to support the talent pool. If you stopped the migration north to the BCHL and CHL leagues, you could legitimately have 30+ top tier US based junior teams. The ~70 Americans a year combined in WHL and OHL, the 5-10 in QMJHL, and 130+ in BCHL.... that's 8+ teams right there. Then figure the USHL runs at about a 25% import rate... there are 11-12 teams worth of talent playing elsewhere in the world. Not to mention there are 30-40 NAHL players who could easily play in the USHL today and if you raided Minnesota high school hockey another few teams there quite easily (that'll ruffle feathers though).

So IMO... either you massively expand the USHL to make it the primary place for all US based hockey talent... and for those that want to play NCAA. Or you build up a western based league to siphon off that talent and over 15 years end up with 2 16 team leagues. The talent pool is available to support that many teams, you just need to build the infrastructure and support.

Well yeah, isn't that the whole point? Was the NAHL ever supposed to compete with the USHL? For the most part, the best players will fill the USHL, then NAHL and so on. Obviously not to an exact measure (meaning there will be some NAHL players better than some USHL players), but overall similar to NHL/AHL or OHL/OJHL like you say.

Losing higher end players to the CHL I don't have an answer for. Whether they don't want to play college hockey or whatever the reason, I think that will happen regardless of league expansion. Just as the Q loses a Boisvert or the OHL loses a Hage. Does Quentin Musty decide to play in the USHL/NTDP if there were 26 teams instead of 16? I highly doubt it considering he could have played NTDP anyways. Not always, but many player go to the BCHL because they weren't good enough for the USHL. I don't see the reason to water down the league to accommodate those players.

It doesn't effect me in any way personally, but as a viewer, I'd rather watch less teams in a more competitive league. I suppose you can try to create a new western league to compete with the BCHL, but I fail to see how that would be any different than the existing leagues that are below the USHL already in place.

Maaaybe this could work if you eliminated the NTDP and have those players fill USHL rosters, but I wouldn't like that idea.

 

[NOTENOUGHRYJOTHINGS]

Daddy chill. Pittsburgh lost one game that they were leading the majority of. The knee jerk reactions on here are great. Pick up Nick Paul in fantasy he’s on pace for 164 goals!

I kinda like seeing the Pens do well. Something about ancient Crosby Malkin and EK making a final would be amazing.

But losing to the Avs of course.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

The raw number is actually flat over the last 4 years (Covid dropped participation and it is just recovering now), but over 10 years ago the raw number is up about that 10%. But it is actually both. We actually have less kids 6-17 in the US today than we did in 2010 (about a million or so less). It not a huge difference, but the US is one of the countries not having an adequate replacement rate and will be experiencing a population decrease over the coming years. It would already be heavily happening if we didn't have a strong net positive immigration. There are some signs that there was a covid baby boom, but who knows if that will sustain long enough to see the 6-17 ages have significant growth in the coming years.

When you go back further... and you're looking at the year 2000 with roughly 73m kids (0-17) total and roughly 330k youth participants. Last year with roughly 72.5m kids and roughly 390k youth participants.

Honestly, the demographics of youth hockey are as strong as they have been and with the records expected over the next few years, it is really hard to say the future of the game is in doubt. It actually presents the case quite well that the NHL can expand with the expected increase in talent available in the US. For the love of god though, we need a 2nd top tier junior league in the US. A western version of the USHL (Avs, Kings, Knights, and Sharks ownership are all already pushing for this).

Holy hell you have a lot of information readily available. It would take me hours if not days to try and dig up these numbers.

That last tidbit about a second junior league in the western USA is news to me. Hadn't heard anything about that before. Our local team, the Ice Dogs, are part of the NAHL. I'm not sure they can draw the talent to be in a top tier junior team but I would imagine they'd love to not have so many long-distance flights. All three Alaska junior teams are part of the NAHL midwestern division. *LOL*

 

[henchman21]

Well yeah, isn't that the whole point? Was the NAHL ever supposed to compete with the USHL? For the most part, the best players will fill the USHL, then NAHL and so on. Obviously not to an exact measure (meaning there will be some NAHL players better than some USHL players), but overall similar to NHL/AHL or OHL/OJHL like you say.

Losing higher end players to the CHL I don't have an answer for. Whether they don't want to play college hockey or whatever the reason, I think that will happen regardless of league expansion. Just as the Q loses a Boisvert or the OHL loses a Hage. Does Quentin Musty decide to play in the USHL/NTDP if there were 26 teams instead of 16? I highly doubt it considering he could have played NTDP anyways. Not always, but many player go to the BCHL because they weren't good enough for the USHL. I don't see the reason to water down the league to accommodate those players.

It doesn't effect me in any way personally, but as a viewer, I'd rather watch less teams in a more competitive league. I suppose you can try to create a new western league to compete with the BCHL, but I fail to see how that would be any different than the existing leagues that are below the USHL already in place.

Maaaybe this could work if you eliminated the NTDP and have those players fill USHL rosters, but I wouldn't like that idea.

The NAHL is designated Tier II by USA hockey, so it kinda has to feed instead of compete.

Oh players would still be lost, but the point is to increase the opportunity to develop young talent. The young US pool is incredibly strong and really begs for more spots to showcase their talent. In sincerely believe you could have another 10 teams easily and not dilute if you can keep the top name in the states. Whether or not that is in the USHL umbrella or another Tier I, doesn't matter as much to me, but more spaces are needed. The pool is getting too strong and future professional talent will fall by the wayside if it isn't developed. I personally think the US 2010s have a chance to have 12+ first rounders... and many think the 2012s are stronger at this stage. These players and the depth behind them need places to play they shouldn't have to seek out Ontario.

As a viewer, it would certainly have an interim hit on the quality of the league. As a 5-7+ year outlook, you're looking at an extra 2-3 NHLers per year produced and 15-20 good NCAA players. As the NHL expands, producing more young talent is critical and the main country that it'll have to come from is the US.

The USNTDP should and would stay. That's a unique program that has worked wonders for developing the very elite in the US.

Holy hell you have a lot of information readily available. It would take me hours if not days to try and dig up these numbers.

I'm fairly heavily involved in junior hockey, so kinda comes with the territory. Kill me.

 

[S E P H]

I very much like pokemon but that is cringe as f***

Just because its cringe, doesn't mean you can't enjoy it...

 

[95snipes]

The NAHL is designated Tier II by USA hockey, so it kinda has to feed instead of compete.

Oh players would still be lost, but the point is to increase the opportunity to develop young talent. The young US pool is incredibly strong and really begs for more spots to showcase their talent. In sincerely believe you could have another 10 teams easily and not dilute if you can keep the top name in the states. Whether or not that is in the USHL umbrella or another Tier I, doesn't matter as much to me, but more spaces are needed. The pool is getting too strong and future professional talent will fall by the wayside if it isn't developed. I personally think the US 2010s have a chance to have 12+ first rounders... and many think the 2012s are stronger at this stage. These players and the depth behind them need places to play they shouldn't have to seek out Ontario.

As a viewer, it would certainly have an interim hit on the quality of the league. As a 5-7+ year outlook, you're looking at an extra 2-3 NHLers per year produced and 15-20 good NCAA players. As the NHL expands, producing more young talent is critical and the main country that it'll have to come from is the US.

The USNTDP should and would stay. That's a unique program that has worked wonders for developing the very elite in the US.


I'm fairly heavily involved in junior hockey, so kinda comes with the territory. Kill me.

I always respect your posts, but still seems to me that the NAHL can accommodate. If you're so good that you should be drafted or have legitimate professional aspirations (not talking the SPHL here...), you should be able to make a USHL team no problem. If you're so good that you should be playing college hockey, you should be able to make a NAHL team no problem. If your not good enough for either, you should probably be focusing on your education instead of 'living the dream'. The NHL would need to expand by more than just a few teams to change that. If the upcoming talent pool raises the level of the NAHL, I don't see that as a bad thing.

 

[S E P H]

I echo a lot of the comments already with the NAHL/USHL/Etc.

USHL is an excellent league with many players specifically coming down to try out for it, for example, the Waterloo Blackhawks goaler camp that takes place before training camp has around ~30 goalers all fighting for two spots in certain years (1 if they already have a somebody returning). Their training camps have enough players to have six to eight 18-22-man roster teams annually. Each team does it differently, but this is more on average for a USHL team. You have just so many players that it is a numbers game and that makes it super difficult to get into. Hell, you normally get players from the BCHL and AJHL every year trying to get spots in the USHL. I found myself not being good enough and eventually being cut partway in the season from a USHL team, but I got to make friends with current and past NHLers and NCAAers. As hench mentioned, there is no way I would be good enough to make a USHL team if I tried out now. Honestly, the worst part of the USHL is the location of the teams where you go through some brutal declining Midwestern farmland cities. Before COVID, they had some international preseason tournaments where USHL teams would play CHL and European Junior teams from Russia, Sweden, and Czechia. USHL teams would beat CHL teams quite commonly, though the top CHL clubs would just wipe away the top USHL teams (thinking of Taylor Hall's Windsor Spitfires or Tkachuk/Domi London Knights as examples).

NAHL is borderline sketchy because there are amazing dedicated clubs in it and then there are sketchy owners who get a franchise that folds the next season. NAHL is pretty much a league for USHL to spot and find talent. Of course, players are drafted from it and many get an NCAA DI scholarship, but it tends to be from established franchises like Bismark Bobcats, Springfield Blues, and some of the Minnesota teams (the Alaskan teams ain't too bad either). You also get a ton of imports in this league eventually trying to get a USHL or CHL spot next season which is why you see a lot of players from nations like Ukraine, Latvia, Norway, Japan, Hungary, Austria, Germany, etc. More of the second-tier nations besides Germany. It is definitely the widest league in terms of talent where you can get 50-1 teams in the same division as another team going 3-45-10.

I think NCDC has the power and potential to eventually overtake the NAHL. They seem more structured at this point, already making junior teams from very well-established NE AAA clubs and are all in states with very good hockey culture and pedigree. NAHL has franchises in El Paso, New Mexico (GOAT logo though), and many throughout Texas while NHL, CHL, and NCAA scouts tend to predominately stay in the NE due to all the hockey is played there. You have amazing AAA midget tournaments in that location (NE), all the best Prep-School hockey besides SSM, D1 college hockey, NHL, and AHL. Now, there are some beastly AAA organisations outside of Michigan and NE, but they tend to be few and far between. Some of them though are the Dallas Jr. Stars, LA Jr. Kings, and Florida Alliance (I think that's the team in FL). Nonetheless, the king for hockey besides the Great Lake states tends to be the NE and why NCDC should become a premier junior hockey league surpassing the NAHL. Why go play in Alaska in the NAHL or Sioux Falls in the USHL when you can stay home and play in Mass, Long Island, or the other parts of New England? Since a good deal of USA players tend to be from a NE state.

After these levels, you get to more sketchy pay-to-play leagues (Tier III) where teams constantly fold and get replaced every single effin' year. This league is more in California, the Pacific NW, and the Rocky Mountains like Wyoming, Idaho, and Montana, while there are some leagues in the Ohio Valley and Atlantic border the most popular teams are on the west. These are for the people who are on the cusp of a top-three league, but need experience and seasoning or are simply not good enough/have the talent but lack effort. I nickname this the Xavier LaFlamme league as there are players who are simply way too good and no joke put up like 110 points in 30 games, Bedard-esque numbers. Because of that, you get extremely good teams against extremely bad teams, but don't think those extremely good teams from NA3HL (one of the tier III leagues) can beat the teams in the NAHL or USHL. They probably can to some extent, but the talent gap is really big between Tier II and Tier III IMHO. These players tend to be the ones that fill NCAA club hockey schools such as the University of Florida, University of Kansas, Colorado School of Mines, Indiana University, Texas Tech, etc. in ACHA. I don't think these players would be good enough for an ACHA D1 club hockey team like Ohio University, Liberty University, Adrian College, Central Oklahoma, UNLV, Minot State, or Maryville University. These teams tend to get filled by NCDC and NAHL players who weren't good enough to get an NCAA D1 scholarship.

Sorry for the wall of text, but fun topic to discuss.

 

[henchman21]

I always respect your posts, but still seems to me that the NAHL can accommodate. If you're so good that you should be drafted or have legitimate professional aspirations (not talking the SPHL here...), you should be able to make a USHL team no problem. If you're so good that you should be playing college hockey, you should be able to make a NAHL team no problem. If your not good enough for either, you should probably be focusing on your education instead of 'living the dream'. The NHL would need to expand by more than just a few teams to change that. If the upcoming talent pool raises the level of the NAHL, I don't see that as a bad thing.

It isn't that there isn't room in a tier 2 league like the NAHL to put the players and those players can't eventually find spots... it is that there already isn't enough tier 1 spots to fit the talent pool coming up. Pretty well proven that players develop better when playing against better competition. Being the top dog in the NAHL won't improve a player like being a 2nd liner in the USHL or other tier 1. With the US heavily exporting talent to Canadian leagues already instead of going to the NAHL, there is already pent up demand... the younger groups are even better that the current crops. If we want to grow the game, we need more tier 1 spots.

If USA Hockey would be willing to split off part of the NAHL and allow it to be tier 1, I think there would be something. I personally don't trust that league or ownership at all though... it is shady AF.

At this point it is probably 75/25 that a western US tier 1 league is starting in 24-25. Most certainly 25-26. NHL owners are organizing and working local groups to get it going (some heavy hitters are involved). Rumors have it that there will be a LA area team (all the teams might be located an hour or so outside the cities), Vegas, Tempe, Denver, Fresno, and Reno. If Denver doesn't join immediately, there will be 2 LA area teams. With early expansion looking to Bay Area/Sacramento, SLC, Boise, and Portland (they'll choose 2). Longer term expansion to Texas.

 

[95snipes]

It isn't that there isn't room in a tier 2 league like the NAHL to put the players and those players can't eventually find spots... it is that there already isn't enough tier 1 spots to fit the talent pool coming up. Pretty well proven that players develop better when playing against better competition. Being the top dog in the NAHL won't improve a player like being a 2nd liner in the USHL or other tier 1. With the US heavily exporting talent to Canadian leagues already instead of going to the NAHL, there is already pent up demand... the younger groups are even better that the current crops. If we want to grow the game, we need more tier 1 spots.

If USA Hockey would be willing to split off part of the NAHL and allow it to be tier 1, I think there would be something. I personally don't trust that league or ownership at all though... it is shady AF.

At this point it is probably 75/25 that a western US tier 1 league is starting in 24-25. Most certainly 25-26. NHL owners are organizing and working local groups to get it going (some heavy hitters are involved). Rumors have it that there will be a LA area team (all the teams might be located an hour or so outside the cities), Vegas, Tempe, Denver, Fresno, and Reno. If Denver doesn't join immediately, there will be 2 LA area teams. With early expansion looking to Bay Area/Sacramento, SLC, Boise, and Portland (they'll choose 2). Longer term expansion to Texas.

Interesting. If there was legitimately a junior team based in Denver with future NHL caliber talent on it, I would not mind that at all.

On the development angle, it depends. Sometimes it's better to be one of the best players and dominate. Better to be a top dog and get powerplay time in a lower league than do nothing but dump and chase in a 4th line role in a higher league.

Once you get to a certain point though, the gap between players is going to be minimal anyway. The gap between Trevor Connelly and a 3rd line USHL player is fairly significant. But the gap between a low end USHL player and a top end NAHL player or the gap between low end D1 players and high end D3 players isn't much, if anything at all. I guess that supports your point. Doesn't make for a better product though IMO.

 

[NOTENOUGHRYJOTHINGS]

I'm fairly heavily involved in junior hockey, so kinda comes with the territory. Kill me.

The Avs would say you're day to day for two entire years before the media finds your body and then the team website is quietly updated to remove your name.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Kirby Dach just seems like he doesnt give a shit. Guy looks like hes on valium out there. Guy is looking like hes headed to bustville.

 

[The Kingslayer]

300 goals already for Matthews. Damn. I still remember his debut at the World Cup.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Newhook with 2 lol Drouin better score 4

 

[Balthazar]

Newhook with 2 lol Drouin better score 4

dude you're posting in the wrong thread

 

[The Kingslayer]

dude you're posting in the wrong thread

Puck hasnt dropped on an Avs game yet. Its still off season to me

 

[MonsterMack]

Puck hasnt dropped on an Avs game yet. Its still off season to me

There is a new around the league thread

 

[Bill Peckerskull]

There is a new off-season thread

Better tell @forsbergavs32 to close this one