Speculation: Armchair GM Thread - Looking to the offseason

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Armourboy

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Yeah, they could easily still let Hynes go now and say that are doing research, or whatever, to wait for Taylor's season to end.
Yeah but that would probably still have Taylor answering questions. Now that may not be a big deal but I could see them not doing it to stop any distraction.

Just kind of depends on what angle you come from. That said I think we know Hynes status in short order, especially if they are definitely keeping him.
 

predwings

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Dubois is not a UFA.
Got ya
Ivan Barbashev (UFA - $4M)
Alex Killorn (UFA - $4M) -
Barbashev - Why sign Barbashev for 4 when he'd likely take less? Also not sure I'd want him, his production can be replaced by a young guy for almost nothing. If we're making a UFA signing it has to be someone who produces not a random 3rd line guy on a overinflated deal. Glass, Novak, Tomasino, Evangelista, Parssinen all have similar or better production and cost us much less.

Killorn - Don't think he'd be interested in taking a pay cut considering he's producing at a pretty good clip lately. Would be a good pick-up but will likely cost us in the 5-6m range for him. He's also 31, doesn't fit very well with our current approach of under 30 youth movement.
 

Porter Stoutheart

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Got ya

Barbashev - Why sign Barbashev for 4 when he'd likely take less? Also not sure I'd want him, his production can be replaced by a young guy for almost nothing. If we're making a UFA signing it has to be someone who produces not a random 3rd line guy on a overinflated deal. Glass, Novak, Tomasino, Evangelista, Parssinen all have similar or better production and cost us much less.

Killorn - Don't think he'd be interested in taking a pay cut considering he's producing at a pretty good clip lately. Would be a good pick-up but will likely cost us in the 5-6m range for him. He's also 31, doesn't fit very well with our current approach of under 30 youth movement.
I'm not invested in arguing about the names. Like I said, I put them in as illustrative examples, that we can sign 2 decent $4Mish UFA wingers. There are about 50 names you can pick on the current list who loosely fit the parameters right now. There will probably be half that many by the time we actually get a chance to choose. And the market will evolve meanwhile. So there isn't too much point in focusing on the specific names.

I do happen to think Barbashev is a better player than Niederreiter, for example, and Nino cost $4M. But if you want to say Killorn costs $4.75M and Barbashev $3.25M, I'm fine with that. Or somebody completely different at completely different numbers. You also pay more $$$ for less term, and we should be looking at doing that, if that's what it takes.

What Barbashev would bring is some physicality, energy, and an ability to shift to center at times if the youngsters can't always handle some matchups. All the young guys you listed are already in my lineup, so he doesn't replace any of them.

Killorn is older and the market is not going to be strong for older and more expensive players. I don't see Arizona or Chicago being attractive destinations even if they have the Cap space. He could get $5M or he could be next year's Niederreiter and not find his ideal situation, who knows. Plug in one of the other 50 names if you think he's out of our reach.

And like I said, neither of these guys is considered a long term investment. We already have that going on throughout the lineup. But in order to put the youth in the best position to succeed and grow, it's better to surround them with some good players. If they have to play with Sherwood, Jankowski, Smith, or McCarron types, well, then you aren't giving them their best chance to succeed. They'll struggle more, and our coach will be more tempted to not use them. Put some better NHL calibre energy, experience, physicality out there to help them succeed. Since we have the roster openings and the Cap space.
 
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predwings

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I'm not invested in arguing about the names. Like I said, I put them in as illustrative examples, that we can sign 2 decent $4Mish UFA wingers. There are about 50 names you can pick on the current list who loosely fit the parameters right now. There will probably be half that many by the time we actually get a chance to choose. And the market will evolve meanwhile. So there isn't too much point in focusing on the specific names.

I do happen to think Barbashev is a better player than Niederreiter, for example, and Nino cost $4M. But if you want to say Killorn costs $4.75M and Barbashev $3.25M, I'm fine with that. Or somebody completely different at completely different numbers. You also pay more $$$ for less term, and we should be looking at doing that, if that's what it takes.

What Barbashev would bring is some physicality, energy, and an ability to shift to center at times if the youngsters can't always handle some matchups. All the young guys you listed are already in my lineup, so he doesn't replace any of them.

Killorn is older and the market is not going to be strong for older and more expensive players. I don't see Arizona or Chicago being attractive destinations even if they have the Cap space. He could get $5M or he could be next year's Niederreiter and not find his ideal situation, who knows. Plug in one of the other 50 names if you think he's out of our reach.

And like I said, neither of these guys is considered a long term investment. We already have that going on throughout the lineup. But in order to put the youth in the best position to succeed and grow, it's better to surround them with some good players. If they have to play with Sherwood, Jankowski, Smith, or McCarron types, well, then you aren't giving them their best chance to succeed. They'll struggle more, and our coach will be more tempted to not use them. Put some better NHL calibre energy, experience, physicality out there to help them succeed. Since we have the roster openings and the Cap space.
I think Bunting could do that while staying within the parameters better. He's also coming off of a 950k contract so we could toss 2.5m-3.5m at him per season offer him 3-4 years and be comfortable with his production even if it dips a little.

Killorn would be a good add on the veteran side and for 2 years I could see it working but we'd likely have to offer him 5.5-6 if we want to do a short contract with him on a non cup contending team.

Barbashev fits the Hynes philosophy of physicality but he definitely slides into the 4th or 3rd line and is a energy player. Problem being, we have others that can do that for 1-2m per year or we can find guys for that, don't see why we'd be searching to pay a premium for something we could get from almost anywhere on the cheap.

This all being said, it all hinges on Trotz idea of the direction of the rebuild. He could be looking to shop more players and go for a high draft pick next year or he could be looking to trade into a position to rebuild fast and sign some UFA's. Just depends on his philosophy going into this thing, Maybe we're all wrong and he decides to trade these bounty of picks for proven players but it is fun to speculate on options. I'm not trying to tear your arguments down just wanting to share my thoughts on them
 

glenngineer

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I'm not invested in arguing about the names. Like I said, I put them in as illustrative examples, that we can sign 2 decent $4Mish UFA wingers. There are about 50 names you can pick on the current list who loosely fit the parameters right now. There will probably be half that many by the time we actually get a chance to choose. And the market will evolve meanwhile. So there isn't too much point in focusing on the specific names.

I do happen to think Barbashev is a better player than Niederreiter, for example, and Nino cost $4M. But if you want to say Killorn costs $4.75M and Barbashev $3.25M, I'm fine with that. Or somebody completely different at completely different numbers. You also pay more $$$ for less term, and we should be looking at doing that, if that's what it takes.

What Barbashev would bring is some physicality, energy, and an ability to shift to center at times if the youngsters can't always handle some matchups. All the young guys you listed are already in my lineup, so he doesn't replace any of them.

Killorn is older and the market is not going to be strong for older and more expensive players. I don't see Arizona or Chicago being attractive destinations even if they have the Cap space. He could get $5M or he could be next year's Niederreiter and not find his ideal situation, who knows. Plug in one of the other 50 names if you think he's out of our reach.

And like I said, neither of these guys is considered a long term investment. We already have that going on throughout the lineup. But in order to put the youth in the best position to succeed and grow, it's better to surround them with some good players. If they have to play with Sherwood, Jankowski, Smith, or McCarron types, well, then you aren't giving them their best chance to succeed. They'll struggle more, and our coach will be more tempted to not use them. Put some better NHL calibre energy, experience, physicality out there to help them succeed. Since we have the roster openings and the Cap space.
I agree with everything except the highlighted part, which has to do with one name. Novak and Evangelista did well with Sherwood. I was not high on Sherwood his first go around and I would like an upgrade there BUT if Trotz stuck with this threesome as a line, I wouldn't be unhappy. IMO, Sherwood earned a shot at making the lineup next year. If he can find a way to increase his shot accuracy while maintaining his bulldog approach on the ice, I'm okay with him in the top 9.

This all goes back to a discussion you and I have had multiple times, does Trotz go the traditional top 6 route with his forwards or does he go with a top 9 approach that I've described to you. If he goes the top 6 route, then I see Sherwood as a nice compliment to Sissons and Trenin and bumps Smith out of the top 12. If we go the top 9 route, he's ok as long as he can put up around 40ish points. We'll have guys who should score more than the 50-60 that a good second liner will do (Forsberg/Duchene) so we can afford one guy in the top 9 who doesn't hit the 50-60 point mark.
 

triggrman

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I agree with everything except the highlighted part, which has to do with one name. Novak and Evangelista did well with Sherwood. I was not high on Sherwood his first go around and I would like an upgrade there BUT if Trotz stuck with this threesome as a line, I wouldn't be unhappy. IMO, Sherwood earned a shot at making the lineup next year. If he can find a way to increase his shot accuracy while maintaining his bulldog approach on the ice, I'm okay with him in the top 9.

This all goes back to a discussion you and I have had multiple times, does Trotz go the traditional top 6 route with his forwards or does he go with a top 9 approach that I've described to you. If he goes the top 6 route, then I see Sherwood as a nice compliment to Sissons and Trenin and bumps Smith out of the top 12. If we go the top 9 route, he's ok as long as he can put up around 40ish points. We'll have guys who should score more than the 50-60 that a good second liner will do (Forsberg/Duchene) so we can afford one guy in the top 9 who doesn't hit the 50-60 point mark.
Historically as a coach Trotz liked to roll his lines
 

Kat Predator

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The idea of having Sherwood in the bottom 6, with his obvious offensive skills and better than average aggressive game, sounds like a really good one. He would be a nice compliment to Sissons and Trenin and they could go back to being a heavy line that can contribute some complimentary scoring. He's arguably an upgrade to Jankowski offensively, but didn't play PK like Jankowski.
 

Armourboy

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so, where are the Preds going to get room for players? Is see maybe ONE forward spot free on the Preds and 1 for the Ads
Well keep in mind with those salaries you can waive them and it's not a big deal. Not to mention you need the bench sitters to begin with and you would rather it be someone like that rather than one of the prospects who would be better served playing every day.
 
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Porter Stoutheart

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/*I agree with everything except the highlighted part, which has to do with one name. Novak and Evangelista did well with Sherwood. I was not high on Sherwood his first go around and I would like an upgrade there BUT if Trotz stuck with this threesome as a line, I wouldn't be unhappy. IMO, Sherwood earned a shot at making the lineup next year. If he can find a way to increase his shot accuracy while maintaining his bulldog approach on the ice, I'm okay with him in the top 9.

This all goes back to a discussion you and I have had multiple times, does Trotz go the traditional top 6 route with his forwards or does he go with a top 9 approach that I've described to you. If he goes the top 6 route, then I see Sherwood as a nice compliment to Sissons and Trenin and bumps Smith out of the top 12. If we go the top 9 route, he's ok as long as he can put up around 40ish points. We'll have guys who should score more than the 50-60 that a good second liner will do (Forsberg/Duchene) so we can afford one guy in the top 9 who doesn't hit the 50-60 point mark.
I think everybody agreed that Sherwood had chemistry on that line down the stretch and we've been pencilling him onto the roster... in some capacity. Whether that's with Novak and Evangelista, or in a rotation for 4th line/spare, he's going to be in the mix. And now that he has signed as expected, there isn't any uncertainty left.

I don't think our team has any choice but to roll 4 lines, when everybody is healthy, *IF* we want to compete. I don't even really think of it as a "top 9" vs. "top 6" anymore. Sissons and Trenin, if they are on a line together again, are always going to play more than some of the other guys, so it's almost misleading to even refer to their line as a "4th line" also. So maybe I better start saying "top 12" approach just to mess everybody up further! :)

My only concern about Sherwood is... he's 28, and has never been able to stick before. While it's not impossible that he will this time, it's just... bucking the odds to really EXPECT him to. So to me, if I'm trying to WIN I would use my Cap space to sign a more proven top-6 winger, and keep Sherwood more in reserve.

But since we're bringing Hynes back as coach, I actually don't think the plan will be to win next season. With these guys like Sherwood, McCarron, and Jankowski signed, and Johansen's prognosis looking more positive, I suspect the franchise has decided to just write off next season as a development year, and they'll bank the unused Cap space rather than use it to compete. But that's just my hunch. They won't ever say that out loud, though, so all we'll hear in the Presser is that they think they have a good team, want to compete, blahblahblah. But there will be no signing of UFAs, be they named Killorn, Barbashev, Bunting, or anybody else. I would re-write my lineup projection including Sherwood and Johansen in the regular lineup instead of any of them, and with Hynes back, the odds of Evangelista sticking probably go down too.
 

Kat Predator

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It will be interesting to see if we sign a handful of veteran grinder fodder types or stand pat and keep the slots empty for Novak, Parssinen, etc. I can't see Trotz going for making the big splash move, but it's not like he has a track record as the GM to go by either.
 

Porter Stoutheart

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It will be interesting to see if we sign a handful of veteran grinder fodder types or stand pat and keep the slots empty for Novak, Parssinen, etc. I can't see Trotz going for making the big splash move, but it's not like he has a track record as the GM to go by either.
It's going to be hard to resist picking up some guys, not even "grinder/fodder" types but decent ones, since the market is just going to be really hard on UFAs this summer, and there are going to be lots of players available on relative "bargain" contracts.

They'll say in the Presser today that the goal is to compete and make the playoffs, but I'll be very surprised if they do sign anybody now. Which to me, says the goal isn't that firm. Sotto voce they are also going to be saying they're satisfied with not competing and getting a higher draft pick instead, if the team doesn't perform some miracle. :(

Johansen comes back for certain now, we can stop all that LTIR talk. Duchene's injury sounds almost more worrying now - just in the sense that we've seen in the past "little things" can change Duchene's game a lot, like switching up his stick length, and I wonder what having the bionic finger will do to him.

I have my jaundiced eye ready for today's Presser. They are going to say nice things, heart-warming things, brimming with positivity and hope.

But I will try not to be fooled. Hynes back, worrisome injuries, sitting on unused Cap... I think these are things that put huge dents in my optimism for next season.
:dunno:
 
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Porter Stoutheart

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With the good news about Johansen's health, and the lamentable return of Hynes, I'm thinking now that next season is going to be more of a "tread water" one. I'll keep Evangelista up, but I can now definitely imagine him being sent back per their expressed "overcook" philosophy.

2023-24

Forsberg ($8.5M) - Parssinen ($0.850833M) - Tomasino ($0.863333M)
Johansen ($8M) - Glass (?RFA - $2.5M?) - Duchene ($8M)
Sherwood ($0.775M) - Novak ($0.800M) - Evangelista ($0.7975)
Trenin ($1.7M) - Sissons ($2.857M) - Smith ($0.775M)
Jankowski ($0.775M) + McCarron/Gross ($0.775M)

Josi ($9.059M) - Fabbro ($2.5M)
McDonagh ($6.75M) - Barrie ($4.5M)
Lauzon ($2M) - Carrier (?RFA - $2.5M?)
Foote (?RFA - $1M?)
+ McCarron/Gross ($0.775M)

Saros ($5M)
Lankinen ($2M)

Buyouts: Turris ($2M)
Retained: Ekholm ($0.250M)

Total: $75.527663M

If we assume the cap is $83.5M like capfriendly does then:
Remaining Cap Space: $7.972337M

I suspect they will just bank the remaining Cap space. If you save $8M on player payroll, well, that probably just about balances out with missing Round 1 playoff gates.
 

Kat Predator

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It's going to be hard to resist picking up some guys, not even "grinder/fodder" types but decent ones, since the market is just going to be really hard on UFAs this summer, and there are going to be lots of players available on relative "bargain" contracts.

They'll say in the Presser today that the goal is to compete and make the playoffs, but I'll be very surprised if they do sign anybody now. Which to me, says the goal isn't that firm. Sotto voce they are also going to be saying they're satisfied with not competing and getting a higher draft pick instead, if the team doesn't perform some miracle. :(

Johansen comes back for certain now, we can stop all that LTIR talk. Duchene's injury sounds almost more worrying now - just in the sense that we've seen in the past "little things" can change Duchene's game a lot, like switching up his stick length, and I wonder what having the bionic finger will do to him.

I have my jaundiced eye ready for today's Presser. They are going to say nice things, heart-warming things, brimming with positivity and hope.

But I will try not to be fooled. Hynes back, worrisome injuries, sitting on unused Cap... I think these are things that put huge dents in my optimism for next season.
:dunno:
Loading up with some mid-6, bottom-6 UFA veterans on a bit of a discount will be repeating the same plan and expecting different results, but who really knows.

Injuries are unpredictable. The concern with Duchene is that he indicated he has no feeling at the end of his finger. Like he said, hopefully that returns. And it looks like there will be plenty of really disappointed people when Johansen comes back.

I see Hynes as a .500 level coach. He may get you a game or 3 above that or a handful below on the season. I'll expect more mediocrity regardless of the roster. The optimism from before this past season has been wasted.
 

herzausstein

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Apparently Sherwood and McCarron signed for another year. $775,000 each.
Both showing 1 way on capfriendly. Gross and Jankowski also have a 1 way next season. I know that they can all be buried if desired but that is alot of money to pay for AHL players if we send them down so i doubt all get buried.
 

Jonesey

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A very, very early look at my armchair GM offseason plans. Note, This would probably be closer to a lottery team but I don't see Saros letting us falter that far down so dig in for another season of 9th-10th in the West.

1681754989645.png
1681755008492.png


1681755023650.png
 
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Bringer of Jollity

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A very, very early look at my armchair GM offseason plans. Note, This would probably be closer to a lottery team but I don't see Saros letting us falter that far down so dig in for another season of 9th-10th in the West.

View attachment 690046View attachment 690047

View attachment 690048
Is there a reason to buyout Johansen and add an additional two years of his cap hit (@$2.66M) if we don't need the cap space, rather than just absorb him for two more years? Or are we just trying to get him off the roster? Center depth of Novak, Glass, Parsnip, and Sissons is really optimistic for 82 games--Johansen would be really useful to help buffer them as needed, even if we throw him on a wing a bunch.
 

Jonesey

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Is there a reason to buyout Johansen and add an additional two years of his cap hit (@$2.66M) if we don't need the cap space, rather than just absorb him for two more years? Or are we just trying to get him off the roster? Center depth of Novak, Glass, Parsnip, and Sissons is really optimistic for 82 games--Johansen would be really useful to help buffer them as needed, even if we throw him on a wing a bunch.

I looked at is as more of a cash saving buyout. I believe we'd save $4,000,000 in real money and I don't think we are in any danger of being a salary capped team in the next 3-4 seasons.

I'm not against Johansen sticking around but he's had a couple pretty serious leg injuries the last few years. He was never the quickest skater in the world before he got hurt and he has a long recovery still today.
 
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