Speculation: Armchair GM Thread - 2018/19 Season

[JPeeper]

Instead of trading for Stone, wait a year and just sign him.

I can say with certainty he'll be the big fish next off season free agency.

 

[Northern Neighbour]

If you think my statement is nonsensical, you haven't paid attention to hockey the last couple decades. Teams overpay at the trade deadline, that is a fact.

Also I never said Stone would return less than Nash, I said comparing trades from the deadline and summer make no sense due to deadline deals often being overpayments, as we saw with Nash. But you suggesting it would cost a recent top 5 pick, 1st round pick, top prospect and a cap dump, is absolutely ridiculous.

You're arguing that Stone won't net the return I suggest, which implies you think Stone's value is less than Nash's.

Bennett's draft position is irrelevant. That's like saying if Lazar was offered instead that the Flames would be sending two first-round picks. Of course neither Lazar's nor Bennett's value is that of a first-round pick. Neither have much value in general. And if draft position mattered, then Gaudreau's value is that of a fourth-round pick, which is nonsensical and actually completely asinine.

And yes, Stone, who is only 26 and heading into his prime years, will likely return a first-round pick (probably a late one if it comes from a team like Calgary or say San Jose), a good to very good prospect, a young roster player, and some salary to match. That's three quality pieces and a player not needed by the acquiring team to acquire a top-10, possibly top-5 RW in the league with great possession numbers and very good stats on a team that doesn't score much.

Now if you were paying attention to what's happened in the NHL, you would see that's the acquisition cost for a player of Stone's calibre has dramatically changed over the past 2-3 years with players like Duchene, Hamilton (twice), Kesler, etc. being dealt for big packages. Or look at what the Lightning gave up to acquire a declining McDonagh and a decent, 2nd-line forward in Miller – one young roster player, 2 highly-rated prospects, a first-round pick, and a conditional second-round pick that becomes a first-round pick if TB wins the Cup. The Rangers, using your evaluation method, could potentially receive 4 first-round picks and a second-round pick (Hajek was an early 2nd-round pick).

IMO, a package of Bennett, one of the prospect defenseman (this is where keeping Fox would have helped), Brouwer (as the salary dump), and a first-round pick would be fair. OK, maybe Dube is too much if the prospect is one of Valimaki or Anderssen. If its Kylington, then someone like Dube definitely has to be included since Kylington has big bust potential whereas the other two have higher floors and ceilings. Plus, as mentioned, Bennett doesn't have much value. He's more of a throw-in than the centerpiece of any trade for a player of Stone's calibre.

If you want to argue that Sens GM Pierre Dorion is way in over his head and might make a Peter Chiarelli-like move (Hall for Larsson), I couldn't argue with you there. It's possible he makes a panic movie like he did with Mike Hoffman. That's really the wild card. We'll learn more when and if Karlsson gets dealt on how Dorian handles dealing his star players.

 

[Lunatik]

You're arguing that Stone won't net the return I suggest, which implies you think Stone's value is less than Nash's.

Bennett's draft position is irrelevant. That's like saying if Lazar was offered instead that the Flames would be sending two first-round picks. Of course neither Lazar's nor Bennett's value is that of a first-round pick. Neither have much value in general. And if draft position mattered, then Gaudreau's value is that of a fourth-round pick, which is nonsensical and actually completely asinine.

And yes, Stone, who is only 26 and heading into his prime years, will likely return a first-round pick (probably a late one if it comes from a team like Calgary or say San Jose), a good to very good prospect, a young roster player, and some salary to match. That's three quality pieces and a player not needed by the acquiring team to acquire a top-10, possibly top-5 RW in the league with great possession numbers and very good stats on a team that doesn't score much.

Now if you were paying attention to what's happened in the NHL, you would see that's the acquisition cost for a player of Stone's calibre has dramatically changed over the past 2-3 years with players like Duchene, Hamilton (twice), Kesler, etc. being dealt for big packages. Or look at what the Lightning gave up to acquire a declining McDonagh and a decent, 2nd-line forward in Miller – one young roster player, 2 highly-rated prospects, a first-round pick, and a conditional second-round pick that becomes a first-round pick if TB wins the Cup. The Rangers, using your evaluation method, could potentially receive 4 first-round picks and a second-round pick (Hajek was an early 2nd-round pick).

IMO, a package of Bennett, one of the prospect defenseman (this is where keeping Fox would have helped), Brouwer (as the salary dump), and a first-round pick would be fair. OK, maybe Dube is too much if the prospect is one of Valimaki or Anderssen. If its Kylington, then someone like Dube definitely has to be included since Kylington has big bust potential whereas the other two have higher floors and ceilings. Plus, as mentioned, Bennett doesn't have much value. He's more of a throw-in than the centerpiece of any trade for a player of Stone's calibre.

If you want to argue that Sens GM Pierre Dorion is way in over his head and might make a Peter Chiarelli-like move (Hall for Larsson), I couldn't argue with you there. It's possible he makes a panic movie like he did with Mike Hoffman. That's really the wild card. We'll learn more when and if Karlsson gets dealt on how Dorian handles dealing his star players.

Bennett's draft position is not completely irrelevant because he still has alot of potential and often shows that potential. Bennett still has considerable value to the Flames, which is what matters most in this scenario. Bringing up Gaudreau just shows you are desperately grasping for straws, not at all shocking considering you fail to grasp that different times of year net different types of returns.

Stone will get a decent return, yes, but not one as valuable as you listed, a GM paying that would have to be an absolute f***ing moron. Bennett will very likely still become a top 6 forward, that first round pick has alot of value, Dube has outplayed his draft position and has good value. Basically you're suggesting a value (to the Flames) of essentially 3 first round picks. Which Stone is absolutely not worth IMO.

 

[Northern Neighbour]

Bennett's draft position is not completely irrelevant because he still has alot of potential and often shows that potential. Bennett still has considerable value to the Flames, which is what matters most in this scenario. Bringing up Gaudreau just shows you are desperately grasping for straws, not at all shocking considering you fail to grasp that different times of year net different types of returns.

Stone will get a decent return, yes, but not one as valuable as you listed, a GM paying that would have to be an absolute ****ing moron. Bennett will very likely still become a top 6 forward, that first round pick has alot of value, Dube has outplayed his draft position and has good value. Basically you're suggesting a value (to the Flames) of essentially 3 first round picks. Which Stone is absolutely not worth IMO.

If Bennett has as much value as you assume, the Flames wouldn't have gone out of their way to acquire Neal, Lindholm, Czarnik, and Ryan. They would have given him every chance to play a top-6 if not a top-9 role. He's way down the depth chart now. He's 22 years old, and he's coming off consecutive 26-point seasons (52 total points in 163 games). I understand wanting and hoping he will break out, but right now I don't see the team valuing him that much. All their moves to date point to the opposite.

And no, I'm not grasping for straws with the Gaudreau example. You just fail to understand the point, which to repeat is intended to demonstrate that draft position is meaningless. After four seasons, production and ability matter. If draft position meant something, Nail Yakupov would still be in the NHL. So again, Bennett's value, right now, is not that of a 1st-round pick. No team would trade a first-round pick for him. It's just like Curtis Lazar - a former first-round pick with little to no value (well Bennett has more value but he's not worth a top selection because he hasn't earned it). If anyone is grasping for straws to rationalize Bennett's value, it's you.

BTW, I do agree that teams will overpay at the deadline for certain players, such as a #4 defenceman or a checking third-line centre. But that's not the point I'm making. And to say one more time, when a premiere talent becomes available, regardless of the time of year, teams pay up because they are difficult to acquire. In addition, because he's available now and where a team can get him for an entire season as oppose to 25 games or less, that player's value increases. It's why Ottawa is trying to deal Karlsson now – his value is higher now than it will be come February 1st (or whenever the 2019 trade deadline is), not to mention more teams can get in on the action (deadline sees fewer teams involved due to cap restrictions and their playoff positioning).

This applies to Stone. And when player of his calibre - a surefire first-line winger and a right-handed shot to boot and can play in all situations - becomes available, the return will be big. He finished 14th in PPG last year (got injured to cut his season short), ahead of Gaudreau, Ovechkin, and Kuznetsov and just behind Crosby.

Think of it this way, what do you think is Gaudreau's trade value? That is essentially Stone's value, yet Stone kills penalties and plays a position where there is less quality and quantity.

Finally, why do you value Stone so lightly? Have you watched him play? He has great possession numbers and he's one of the league's best takeaway artists. I didn't think much of him when he first came up (thought Ottawa fans overrated him as a prospect), but he changed my mind quickly. He's not the fastest guy on the ice, but he's extremely intelligent, has a hockey IQ that is off the charts, and is highly skilled. He's like Blake Wheeler but better defensively and more of a scorer. Stone playing with Gaudreau and Monahan or Tkachuk and Backlund would be dynamite (Lindholm would play one of the top-2 lines). Then a third line of Frolik, Ryan, and Neil would be really formidable.

If Trevling could acquire Stone and get him to sign a long-term deal, he shouldn't hesitate to deal Bennett, one of the defensive prospects, Brouwer, and a first-round pick (can make it lottery protected in 2019). I agree the team should try to keep Dubé, but he wouldn't make or break the deal for me. If the Sens wanted him, then the quality of the defensive prospect would be lowered (i.e., no Valimaki nor Anderssen, but Kylington would be open game). Stone is that good.

Edit: I should have stated before that any deal with Ottawa would be contingent on Stone signing long-term. This wasn't clear in any of the aforementioned posts.

 

[crackdown44]

It will be tough to pry Stone out of Ottawa without an overpayment. The Sens likely will ask for Tkachuk (obviously a non-starter) and make similar requests of all inquiring teams. He would be a great fit in any lineup. I imagine the Flames would have to counter with something like:
- one of Valimaki and Rasmussen
- Bennett
- 1st-round pick
- another prospect (someone like Dube) or a future 2nd-round pick
- another roster player because the Sens are close to the floor.

I don’t think we should trade for him given our current roster I would rather wait and see if he tests free agency. That being said I think this is a bit too rich, but those suggesting Kylington + gets it done are way undervaluing Stone. If the trade was being done today Stone probably fetches:
-1st
-Top tier prospect (Valimaki)
-Youngish roster player with upside (think Bennett or maybe Jankowski with a slight add)

I understand that people think Ottawa has to trade him so that diminishes his value, but the fact that half the league (if not more) would be interested in acquiring him definitely makes the price higher

Edit: like you said, they’d want tkachuk from us without a doubt. I wouldn’t even make that trade 1 for 1 but I think a neutral fan probably would and even consider calgary advantaged

 

[Northern Neighbour]

I don’t think we should trade for him given our current roster I would rather wait and see if he tests free agency. That being said I think this is a bit too rich, but those suggesting Kylington + gets it done are way undervaluing Stone. If the trade was being done today Stone probably fetches:
-1st
-Top tier prospect (Valimaki)
-Youngish roster player with upside (think Bennett or maybe Jankowski with a slight add)

I understand that people think Ottawa has to trade him so that diminishes his value, but the fact that half the league (if not more) would be interested in acquiring him definitely makes the price higher

Edit: like you said, they’d want tkachuk from us without a doubt. I wouldn’t even make that trade 1 for 1 but I think a neutral fan probably would and even consider calgary advantaged

Dealing Tkachuk for Stone doesn't make a whole lot of sense for Calgary but a lot for Ottawa. It's an interesting keeper-league fantasy question, though.

I think any team acquiring Stone would want to have the opportunity to negotiate a long-term deal with him, and they should. It's going to cost a lot (don't forget a salary dump going to Ottawa because they'll need to get to the floor), but Stone is only 26 and he's a top-tier winger.

I do understand the argument of waiting to see if he hits FA. There's a risk with that strategy of course – another team could acquire him and sign him long-term; Stone may opt to play in a different city should he hit FA; and he'll definitely cost more as an UFA, especially if the cap rises again next year. Acquire him now and he likely signs a deal for slightly less than what he'll get next year because one year is linked to his RFA status. For example, he might sign an 8-year, $60M contract right now. That's $7.5M a year until he's 34. As an UFA and assuming he has another 80-point-pace season, he could get 7 years at between $56M and $63M. That's an AAV of $8M to $9M until he's 34.

I do wonder, however, if Stone would give the Flames a slight discount since his brother plays for the team.

 

[The Gnome]

I think Neal is the better player, but to say a younger player who has improved his play year over year has the potential to outproduce a vet like Neal is not unrealistic

Ferland isn't a spring chicken anymore, he is what he is at this point. He can certainly still round out his game to some extent, but Neal is already (and has proven over many years) to be superior to Ferland. The level of talent isn't even close. Ferland is 26 and we've found a guy who is a 3rd line winger with some offensive flair, is very inconsistent, and still needs to figure out how to play without the puck.

 

[Flameshomer]

I thought about stone more last night. Signing him in fa next year is a nice idea, but I just dont see how we can make it work without shipping some pieces out, which is why I think trade is still the best option.

Jankowski/bennett+r.andersson/kylington+2019 1st+ brouwer
That should be on the right track for a stone base, with brouwer as a salary dump heading back. Sens get two young and relatively nice pieces to build off of, we augment our top 6 substantially. Flip frolik to another team for whatever you can get and between he and brouwer that gives us ~8.5 extra cap space to keep stone (and more importantly tkachuk) signed long term

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

I thought about stone more last night. Signing him in fa next year is a nice idea, but I just dont see how we can make it work without shipping some pieces out, which is why I think trade is still the best option.

Jankowski/bennett+r.andersson/kylington+2019 1st+ brouwer
That should be on the right track for a stone base, with brouwer as a salary dump heading back. Sens get two young and relatively nice pieces to build off of, we augment our top 6 substantially. Flip frolik to another team for whatever you can get and between he and brouwer that gives us ~8.5 extra cap space to keep stone (and more importantly tkachuk) signed long term

What about trade Frolik to the Sens instead of Brouwer? Balances out cap and still gives them a useful player.

 

[The Gnome]

What about trade Frolik to the Sens instead of Brouwer? Balances out cap and still gives them a useful player.

I'd 100% do this, could you imagine?!

Gaudreau-Monahan-Stone
Tkachuk-Lindholm-Neal
XXX-Backlund-Ryan
XXX-Janko-Czarnik

Definitely lose depth, but that top 6 is ridiculous. I think people on this board underrate Mark Stone, the guy is a legit top line talent with no real weakness in his game.

 

[Volica]

I thought about stone more last night. Signing him in fa next year is a nice idea, but I just dont see how we can make it work without shipping some pieces out, which is why I think trade is still the best option.

Jankowski/bennett+r.andersson/kylington+2019 1st+ brouwer
That should be on the right track for a stone base, with brouwer as a salary dump heading back. Sens get two young and relatively nice pieces to build off of, we augment our top 6 substantially. Flip frolik to another team for whatever you can get and between he and brouwer that gives us ~8.5 extra cap space to keep stone (and more importantly tkachuk) signed long term

Stone in Calgary would be absurd.
One of the overall best top 6/9s in the league.

That all being said, I don't know the motivation for Ottawa to do a fire sale. They don't own their own pick next year, and getting a bunch of picks back in the 20's doesn't really help them out much at all. However absurd it sounds, they'll aim to be playoff team. They have to trade Karlsson, because it's something for a guy who won't stay with the club... they have no reason to trade Stone.

IF you could swing:
Jankowski + Andersson + 1st + Cap Dump; Dorion wouldn't be able to even finish the sentence and BT would have the paperwork in his inbox. I think that's kind of the start of a trade; Good young roster player with some upside. Top prospect. First.

Having a 26 year old PPG Winger who is ELITE defensively... Our top line would be one of the hardest to shutdown in the entire league. With someone like Stone in the mix, Calgary would automatically be one of the deepest teams, and a cup favourite.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

As I said elsewhere, I suspect if Stone is getting moved it's to Colorado to try and get their first back.

If Karlsson, Stone, Duchene are gone by the end of next season, the Sens are almost AHL caliber.

 

[Volica]

As I said elsewhere, I suspect if Stone is getting moved it's to Colorado to try and get their first back.

If Karlsson, Stone, Duchene are gone by the end of next season, the Sens are almost AHL caliber.

I don't think there's an almost about it, really.

Bobby Ryan - JG Pageau - Ryan Dzingle
Mikeal Boedker - Logan Brown - Colin White
Zack Smith - Tom Pyatt - Marian Gaborik
? - ? - ?

Thomas Chabot - Cody Cici
Christian Wolanin - Chris Wideman
Mark Borowiecki - ?

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

If Ottawa can get their first + back for Stone, and a Sergachev for Karlsson, then that’s a pretty good start to a rebuild.

 

[crackdown44]

If Ottawa can get their first + back for Stone, and a Sergachev for Karlsson, then that’s a pretty good start to a rebuild.

Rantanen-Mackinnon-Stone

Yikes

 

[SKRusty]

Stone is not worth what you guys are willing to pay. Unsigned he is worth maybe Andersson and a conditional pick.

 

[crackdown44]

Stone is not worth what you guys are willing to pay. Unsigned he is worth maybe Andersson and a conditional pick.

I don’t think anyone trades for stone without a deal in place to resign him. That was implied and I think mentioned in most posts. Andersson and a conditional pick doesn’t even get Dorion on the phone

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

We can’t afford Stone. We might struggle to afford Tkachuk and Smith/other starting goalie

 

[CraigsList]

^ if we get stone, he’d be a rental because the focus would be on getting Tkachuk re-signed.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

We can’t afford Stone. We might struggle to afford Tkachuk and Smith/other starting goalie

Depends on if Hanifin signs a bridge, cap increase and in theory moving Frolik and buying out Brouwer.

It's probably not easy, but it's not impossible.

The downside is that we probably keep Michael Stone around for longer than we would otherwise.

 

[Sparky93]

We can’t afford Stone. We might struggle to afford Tkachuk and Smith/other starting goalie

We could pull it off, I’m just not sure it would make the team better. I would think a package of Backlund + Brodie for Stone + Ceci would be pretty close. Slide Lindholm to the 2C spot

 

[crackdown44]

We could pull it off, I’m just not sure it would make the team better. I would think a package of Backlund + Brodie for Stone + Ceci would be pretty close. Slide Lindholm to the 2C spot

Trading stone signals a full rebuild for Ottawa, they’d have no interest in getting older. It would have to be picks, prospects and young roster players

 

[Anglesmith]

Trading stone signals a full rebuild for Ottawa, they’d have no interest in getting older. It would have to be picks, prospects and young roster players

They already initiated a rebuild. They dealt Hoffman and are trading Karlsson. Stone has now worked himself into a spot where they can't keep him past next year anyway. Duchene is a UFA after next year, too.

They basically have no core group moving forward. It's a rebuild whether they want to or not (but I think they want to).

 

[Sparky93]

Trading stone signals a full rebuild for Ottawa, they’d have no interest in getting older. It would have to be picks, prospects and young roster players

Ya, you’re right. We just simply can’t afford it without a significant amount of salary going back not named Frolik, Stone or Brouwer. Those guys have to go as it is for Tkachuk and Bennett.

 

[SKRusty]

There is no way Tre trades for Stone. Any trade done to acquire Stone garners little improvement on replacement and it comes at a great cost to the prospects in the system. Trades involving Andersson, Kylington, Valimaki, Dube, Phillips, Mangiapane, or Foo just reduces the long term window of being a contender. Andersson and Valimaki are particularly valuable because they are the heirs apparent to Brodie and Hamonic if they bolt in a couple years.