Armchair GM: Offseason Roster Moves and Rumors

[cbjthrowaway]

KJ and our 2024 1st (if we are not #1) as a basis for Tkachuk is where I am at. My top 5 in the draft is probably Celebrini, Demidov, Levshunov, Lindstrom, Buium. I think I’d rather bring in Tkachuk. Even if we get the 2nd pick.

i'd do KJ + jiricek, keep the first, and draft levshunov.

 

[Aaaarrgghh]

Delete.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

I agree that we shouldn't move out any of our guys with elite upside, it's those that don't have that upside that we should be looking at.

depends on how you define 'elite' upside, but yes. personally, elite upside to me = top 10-15 at their position leaguewide. by my definition, that's one player if we're only talking about the kids.

Tier 0: Franchise upside (perennial Hart/Norris finalist, ex: McDavid, Makar)​

1. [404 player not found]

​

Tier 1: Elite upside (potential Hart/Norris contender type players, ex: Barkov, Hedman)​

1. Adam Fantilli​

​

Tier 2: Star upside (PPG forward or all-star caliber defenseman, ex: Barzal, Weegar)​

1. Kent Johnson
2. Denton Mateychuk

Tier 3: Top-lineup contributor (complimentary top-line/pair or elite second line/pair, ex: Marchessault, Hanifin)​

1. David Jiricek
2. Gavin Brindley

Tier 4: Mid-lineup contributor (second line/pair upside, good complimentary player, ex: Teravainen, Monahan, Severson)​

1. Yegor Chinakhov (has an outside chance to go up a tier)
2. Kirill Marchenko
3. Cole Sillinger
4. Jordan Dumais (chance to go up if junior production translates)

Tier 5: Quality depth (good bottom six forward or #5 defense capable of playing up in a pinch, ex: Luostarinen, Maatta)​

1. Dmitry Voronkov (good chance of moving up to 4 if fitness improves)
2. Adam Boqvist (slim chance of moving up to 4 health/deployment permitting)
3. Nick Blankenburg
4. Alex Texier
5. Alex Nylander
6. Stanislav Svozil
7. Luca Del Bel Belluz

Tier 6: Filler (NHL bottom line/pair role, healthy scratch, or skilled AHL call-up)​

1. James Malatesta (chance to move up)
2. Jake Bean
3. Jake Christiansen
4. Mikael Pyyhtia
5. Trey Fix-Wolansky
6. Corson Ceulemans (slim chance to move up)

Using that same tier system for some of the veterans:

• Tier 1: no one (CGY version of Gaudreau would go here)
• Tier 2: Werenski (borderline Tier 1), Gaudreau
• Tier 3: healthy Laine (borderline Tier 2)
• Tier 4: Jenner, Severson, Provorov
• Tier 5: Gudbranson
• Tier 6: Kuraly, Danforth

That leaves three 'true' untouchables: Fantilli, Werenski and Mateychuk (on the basis of having all three ELC years). If they get Celebrini, he's Tier 1, otherwise the 2024 1st is likely a Tier 2.

 

[majormajor]

depends on how you define 'elite' upside, but yes. personally, elite upside to me = top 10-15 at their position leaguewide. by my definition, that's one player if we're only talking about the kids.

Tier 0: Franchise upside (perennial Hart/Norris finalist, ex: McDavid, Makar)​

1. [404 player not found]

​

Tier 1: Elite upside (potential Hart/Norris contender type players, ex: Barkov, Hedman)​

1. Adam Fantilli​

​

Tier 2: Star upside (PPG forward or all-star caliber defenseman, ex: Barzal, Weegar)​

1. Kent Johnson
2. Denton Mateychuk

Tier 3: Top-lineup contributor (complimentary top-line/pair or elite second line/pair, ex: Marchessault, Hanifin)​

1. David Jiricek
2. Gavin Brindley

Tier 4: Mid-lineup contributor (second line/pair upside, good complimentary player, ex: Teravainen, Monahan, Severson)​

1. Yegor Chinakhov (has an outside chance to go up a tier)
2. Kirill Marchenko
3. Cole Sillinger
4. Jordan Dumais (chance to go up if junior production translates)

Tier 5: Quality depth (good bottom six forward or #5 defense capable of playing up in a pinch, ex: Luostarinen, Maatta)​

1. Dmitry Voronkov (good chance of moving up to 4 if fitness improves)
2. Adam Boqvist (slim chance of moving up to 4 health/deployment permitting)
3. Nick Blankenburg
4. Alex Texier
5. Alex Nylander
6. Stanislav Svozil
7. Luca Del Bel Belluz

Tier 6: Filler (NHL bottom line/pair role, healthy scratch, or skilled AHL call-up)​

1. James Malatesta (chance to move up)
2. Jake Bean
3. Jake Christiansen
4. Mikael Pyyhtia
5. Trey Fix-Wolansky
6. Corson Ceulemans (slim chance to move up)

Using that same tier system for some of the veterans:

• Tier 1: no one (CGY version of Gaudreau would go here)
• Tier 2: Werenski (borderline Tier 1), Gaudreau
• Tier 3: healthy Laine (borderline Tier 2)
• Tier 4: Jenner, Severson, Provorov
• Tier 5: Gudbranson
• Tier 6: Kuraly, Danforth

I'd flip Voronkov and Sillinger, and a few other minor quibbles, but mostly agree.

That leaves three 'true' untouchables: Fantilli, Werenski and Mateychuk (on the basis of having all three ELC years). If they get Celebrini, he's Tier 1, otherwise the 2024 1st is likely a Tier 2.

Having Mateychuk as an untouchable but not KJ because of contract seems silly to me. We'd have no problem paying the kid if he is a star. That's what we want. We're not cap strapped.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

I'd flip Voronkov and Sillinger, and a few other minor quibbles, but mostly agree.

sillinger was, to me, their best forward down the stretch. looks a lot more confident/decisive, footspeed has improved, and he started to show a mean streak.

Having Mateychuk as an untouchable but not KJ because of contract seems silly to me. We'd have no problem paying the kid if he is a star. That's what we want. We're not cap strapped.

mateychuk has a clear path to being the second pair LHD as soon as next season, and potential major contributor for years 2 and 3. in other words: he's a very safe bet to contribute significant surplus value on his way to being a long-term piece.

KJ is awesome but has a murkier fit on the roster (gaudreau as the long-term LW1, not likely to get PP1 time, etc.) and is already an RFA, meaning less opportunity to provide surplus value and a higher bar to clear to define 'surplus'

he's as close to an untouchable as it gets without being untouchable, but unlike with mateychuk, there are a few plausible trade scenarios where i'd be willing to part with KJ (or jiricek).

 

[KJ Dangler]

Funny to read some of the hot takes on here , and contrast that to what Porty thinks, based on his conversations with people within the league . His podcast today said Cole is going to becoming a great 2 way center in the nhl.. possibly a #2 center … he feels Kj is about to explode …special special player that’s going to burst in next couple years … Feels Fantilli is going to be a great player … The blue jackets rush players , and people make declarations as to what they will be . Sillinger is 20 yrs old … KJ is 21 years old .. Fantilli is 19 years old .

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Funny to read some of the hot takes on here , and contrast that to what Porty thinks, based on his conversations with people within the league . His podcast today said Cole is going to becoming a great 2 way center in the nhl.. possibly a #2 center … he feels Kj is about to explode …special special player that’s going to burst in next couple years … Feels Fantilli is going to be a great player … The blue jackets rush players , and people make declarations as to what they will be . Sillinger is 20 yrs old … KJ is 21 years old .. Fantilli is 19 years old .

God bless Porty but he’s hardly “untouchable” when it comes to opinions about players.

 

[MissADD]

God bless Porty but he’s hardly “untouchable” when it comes to opinions about players.

So what you're saying is all the players are going to be busts?

 

[VT]

Funny to read some of the hot takes on here , and contrast that to what Porty thinks, based on his conversations with people within the league . His podcast today said Cole is going to becoming a great 2 way center in the nhl.. possibly a #2 center … he feels Kj is about to explode …special special player that’s going to burst in next couple years … Feels Fantilli is going to be a great player … The blue jackets rush players , and people make declarations as to what they will be . Sillinger is 20 yrs old … KJ is 21 years old .. Fantilli is 19 years old .

I'm going to hope that the people in the league are right in these cases, but they aren't infallible either. Now, I'm not referring to their projections on players who have been injured a lot in the future or had mental issues (and now I'm talking about NHL players in general).

 

[Napoli]

Funny to read some of the hot takes on here , and contrast that to what Porty thinks, based on his conversations with people within the league . His podcast today said Cole is going to becoming a great 2 way center in the nhl.. possibly a #2 center … he feels Kj is about to explode …special special player that’s going to burst in next couple years … Feels Fantilli is going to be a great player … The blue jackets rush players , and people make declarations as to what they will be . Sillinger is 20 yrs old … KJ is 21 years old .. Fantilli is 19 years old .

When has Porty and his sources ever been wrong?

 

[KJ Dangler]

God bless Porty but he’s hardly “untouchable” when it comes to opinions about players.

I hear you .. but you read things around here like Sillinger may not slot in as a future 3c. The kid is 20.. just put up numbers comparable to Boone , playing 4 minutes less a night . Or Kj… he’s one of 3 players in our history to put up 40 points in a season prior to age 20. These are kids that on a good team aren’t in the nhl right away . To make declarations as to what these 2 players will be , is moronic to be honest . JG comes here , and coincidentally his numbers tank, but we know the ceiling on KJ and Sillinger .

 

[CBJWerenski8]

33. Columbus’s fans, who stayed strongly loyal despite another tough season, deserve success. Obviously, the biggest decision is who will run things. The Mark Hunter rumours won’t go away, although he’s also a possible Ken Holland successor in Northern Alberta. The Blue Jackets will swing big in attempts to fill this job. Boone Jenner has said he’s committed. Zach Werenski, who tied Seth Jones’ team record with 57 points by a defenceman, is the other guy I’d be making sure to make happy. The Jackets looked hard at veteran centres early in the season. Does that remain an on-ice priority?

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Penguins' Jeff Carter retires after 19 seasons: 'It was time'

A consistent goal-scorer in his prime, Carter scored at least 25 goals eight times. He finished with 851 regular-season points.

theathletic.com

New GM needs to get this guy to reconsider retirement so he can provide the veteran leadership that the team has been lacking.

 

[cslebn]

I can't wait to see the gambles the new guy takes.

The new GM needs to find an identity for this team and we're going to trade off some good players when that happens and then this board will lose its mind watching them succeed elsewhere.

What happens if....

KJ has a 100 pt season elsewhere
Marchenko puts up 35 goals elsewhere
Chinakov pots 30g elsewhere
Sillinger raises the cup after scoring the decisive goal
Jiricek turns into peak Seth Jones as expected

Etc

Frankly so long as the CBJ improve and go get a cup, any of those things instantly is okay to live with for me

 

[NotWendell]

I want to see Nick Foligno as an assistant coach behind our bench in the next 3 years.

 

[Cowumbus]

No moves:

Gaudreau (9.75) Jenner (3.75) Fantilli (1)
Johnson (2) Voronkov (1) Laine (8.7)
Chinakhov (2.5) Sillinger (3) Marchenko (4)
Texier (2) Kuraly (3.5) Danforth (1.1)
Nylander (1.1), Olivier (1.1)
Total F: 44.5

Werenski (9.59) Severson (6.25)
Provorov (4.73) Jiricek (1)
Bean (2.3) Gudbranson (4)
Blankenburg (1.1)
Total D: 28.87

Tarasov (1)
Merzlikins (5.4)
Total G: 6.4

Total: 79.77

Do these estimates for contracts look right? 4-8 mill in cap space depending on what the increase is?

Thus an Elvis buyout increases our cap space to somewhere between 6.9-10.9 million (if Greaves is the #2)?

Looking at this, I’m not sure if it makes sense to bring Nylander back. It might make more sense to have the healthy scratch spot be someone on an ELC like McKown (if they want to add in other guys with the cap space). Makes me also wonder if Jake Bean is the right choice given his contract (assuming it is similar to his current deal), does Mateychuk/Christansen make more sense (depending on if they want LH + RD, or don’t mind RD + RD with Blankenburg on the third pair)?

 

[Aaaarrgghh]

No moves:

Gaudreau (9.75) Jenner (3.75) Fantilli (1)
Johnson (2) Voronkov (1) Laine (8.7)
Chinakhov (2.5) Sillinger (3) Marchenko (4)
Texier (2) Kuraly (3.5) Danforth (1.1)
Nylander (1.1), Olivier (1.1)
Total F: 44.5

Werenski (9.59) Severson (6.25)
Provorov (4.73) Jiricek (1)
Bean (2.3) Gudbranson (4)
Blankenburg (1.1)
Total D: 28.87

Tarasov (1)
Merzlikins (5.4)
Total G: 6.4

Total: 79.77

Do these estimates for contracts look right? 4-8 mill in cap space depending on what the increase is?

Thus an Elvis buyout increases our cap space to somewhere between 6.9-10.9 million (if Greaves is the #2)?

Looking at this, I’m not sure if it makes sense to bring Nylander back. It might make more sense to have the healthy scratch spot be someone on an ELC like McKown (if they want to add in other guys with the cap space).

Nylander's going to have a very low cap hit. I'd be shocked if he gets more than a one-year deal for less than 1 million. So why not bring him back unless a contender are willing to take a chance and pay big for him?

 

[Cowumbus]

Nylander's going to have a very low cap hit. I'd be shocked if he gets more than a one-year deal for less than 1 million. So why not bring him back unless a contender are willing to take a chance and pay big for him?

Because I think he’s going to be looking for a 1 way contract, and if sent to the AHL at least some of it will count against the cap, right?

 

[NotCommitted]

Nylander seems like a perfect reclamation project. Of course no guarantee he will succeed, but he has the right background - high draft position - which means nothing by itself but at least there was a point in time where he was seen as one of the top talents of his age group - followed by lackluster career so far, at least in part due to injuries. Being 26 he still kind of fits within the "late bloomer" age, many players still take a big step around 25. So as far as "reclamation projects" go, he has a fair chance of success and seems like a player who at this point plays a game that's not entirely "top-6 or nothing". Giving him a year seems like a reasonable move, if it even remotely works out, he'll either become a good piece going forward or at least brings some value back in a trade, at the price of a roster spot basically.

 

[Aaaarrgghh]

Because I think he’s going to be looking for a 1 way contract, and if sent to the AHL at least some of it will count against the cap, right?

It's not like they are going to be close to the cap next year anyway.

 

[Cowumbus]

No moves:

Gaudreau (9.75) Jenner (3.75) Fantilli (1)
Johnson (2) Voronkov (1) Laine (8.7)
Chinakhov (2.5) Sillinger (3) Marchenko (4)
Texier (2) Kuraly (3.5) Danforth (1.1)
Nylander (1.1), Olivier (1.1)
Total F: 44.5

And not to beat a dead horse, but if we could move Laine for a middle 6 forechecker/grinder on a 3-5 AAV deal we could probably add 2 veteran players in UFA and look drastically different. Probably not possible tbf.

It's not like they are going to be close to the cap next year anyway.

No, but we already have too many bodies. And IMO, adding a veteran forward in UFA (preferably C) is a must. Who can we send down (not Fantilli) that doesn’t require waivers?

 

[Aaaarrgghh]

No, but we already have too many bodies. And IMO, adding a veteran forward in UFA is a must.

I think they'll manage. I don't think that Nylander is going to be the signing that prevents Columbus from signing a UFA this off-season. Looking at your initial rough estimates above, I don't think Bean or Merzlikins (who you mentioned) are returning next year, for instance. They have the space to re-sign Nylander. What is the cap hit penalty if he is on a $1,000,000 contract and is sent to the AHL?

He has done very well, so why not give him another opportunity? Like I said, if a contender wants to take a chance on him, fine, but I just don't see Nylander having much trade value unless he continues like this next season. And if he does, then he's a bargain.

 

[KJ Dangler]

No moves:

Gaudreau (9.75) Jenner (3.75) Fantilli (1)
Johnson (2) Voronkov (1) Laine (8.7)
Chinakhov (2.5) Sillinger (3) Marchenko (4)
Texier (2) Kuraly (3.5) Danforth (1.1)
Nylander (1.1), Olivier (1.1)
Total F: 44.5

Werenski (9.59) Severson (6.25)
Provorov (4.73) Jiricek (1)
Bean (2.3) Gudbranson (4)
Blankenburg (1.1)
Total D: 28.87

Tarasov (1)
Merzlikins (5.4)
Total G: 6.4

Total: 79.77

Do these estimates for contracts look right? 4-8 mill in cap space depending on what the increase is?

Thus an Elvis buyout increases our cap space to somewhere between 6.9-10.9 million (if Greaves is the #2)?

Looking at this, I’m not sure if it makes sense to bring Nylander back. It might make more sense to have the healthy scratch spot be someone on an ELC like McKown (if they want to add in other guys with the cap space). Makes me also wonder if Jake Bean is the right choice given his contract (assuming it is similar to his current deal), does Mateychuk/Christansen make more sense (depending on if they want LH + RD, or don’t mind RD + RD with Blankenburg on the third pair)?

If Pascal returns , it’s possible the lineup you posted could be opening night . Fortunately , my guess is a new GM will bring in one of the many available veteran coaches that are out there . Babcock , as flawed as that move was.. was brought in to be that disrupter Davidson was talking about earlier this week.. With all the moves we made defensively , we were still 2nd worst in the league goals against , and our powerplay found a way to even get worse than it was under Larsen the year prior .

Gaudreau. Fantilli. Laine

Chinakov. Sillinger Marchenko

KJ. Voronkov. Jenner

Texier. Danforth Malatesta


I think Kuraly is moved , too expensive , guys like Brindley, Malatesta will be knocking , and you have Gaunce and Oliver as well . Maybe they go out and get a legit veteran center to mentor Fantilli / Sillinger .

 

[VT]

I don't know if it makes sense to add Laine, his problems seem to be more long term.

 

[Cowumbus]

Can’t believe I’m saying this but if Wennberg would do a similar deal to what he’s currently on, he wouldn’t be a bad fit as a middle 6 C. Probably the perfect C for Laine.