Proposal: Arizona/Ottawa 6 player swap

[rt]

That is my point, Arizona got paid for taking him.
Ottawa gets nothing here =)

Arizona didn’t. They gave up a 1st and a 2nd for Datsyuk and a slightly higher 1st. The value they got in eating the Datsyuk contract was extremely negligible. Like maybe a 4th round pick equivalent at most.

 

[rt]

For reference, the Datsyuk trade was:

To Arizona
- Pavel Datsyuk (1yr of 7.5mil cap hit, no cash since he had retired)
- 16th overall (Jakob Chychrun)

To Detroit
- Joe Vitale (1 yr, LTIR, not insured, owed $1.3m - huge for broke AF Arizona at the time)
- 20th overall (Dennis Cholowski)
- 53rd overall (Filip Hronek)

53rd alone is plenty of value to move from 20th to 16th. I would argue that Vitale and Datsyuk were almost separate from the trade. Detroit got to reduce cap and AZ got to reduce salary. I don’t think the value of 20+53 for 16 was impacted at all by the addition of Vitale and Datsyuk.

 

[rt]

^ Tierney like Hinostroza is also an RFA.

Hinostroza is RFA next season. Arizona would be trading his rights I believe, unless its a sign & trade which doesn't happen often.

Raanta would only have one year left of his contract & would be headed to free agency in 2021-22. That might work if the Senators think they need another year of AHL seasoning for one of their future starters.

According to Ottawa fans, they seem to feel they'll have no trouble hitting cap floor, so I'm not sure about Hossa.

Stephan will only get paid $2 m next year because of the signing bonus I presume. That seems to align with the profile of an Ottawa/Melnyk trade. He only has next year left on his contract, so that could fit their timeline strategy.

So, not a bad proposal, except for the two player situations I noted (Hinostroza & Hossa). Might be better to drop those two pieces out of the proposal perhaps.

A team with cap space like Ottawa might be awash with offers though, so maybe dropping those pieces and adding a small sweetner might be required. IDK.

Being an RFA is one of the most common reasons a player gets traded.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Being an RFA is one of the most common reasons a player gets traded.

Yes, but that depends on a lot of things. RFA players that are considered core or integral usually get traded far less frequently.

Not sure which category you'd put Hinostroza in?

Not sure how Senators, a team with lots of prospects would view Hinostroza versus one of the prospects they feel is ready to graduate. I'm not entirely sure on the answer to those questions, but those would be the factors to consider. I could guess, but I doubt if you'd like the answer.

I don't have a horse in the this race btw.

 

[rt]

Yes, but that depends on a lot of things. RFA players that are considered core or integral usually get traded far less frequently.

Not sure which category you'd put Hinostroza in?

Not sure how Senators, a team with lots of prospects would view Hinostroza versus one of the prospects they feel is ready to graduate. I'm not entirely sure on the answer to those questions, but those would be the factors to consider. I could guess, but I doubt if you'd like the answer.

I don't have a horse in the this race btw.

Tierney is also an RFA.

 

[treple13]

Not a poorly thought out proposal. My one thought to it is that Ottawa likely wants to get future pieces out of that cap space and would rather take picks/prospects than two players who will be UFA in a year and will just make the team artificially better (and lower their pick next season).

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Tierney is also an RFA.

True.

Post #49 was my best guess, but I'm no trade expert, especially when it comes to the Senators. I'd just be repeating what I've already said in my previous two posts (49 & 54).

Motivation will be stronger for teams (& fans) with cap issues I'd think -> buyers market. And, as I mentioned before, I didn't think the proposal was terrible.

 

[rt]

True.

Post #49 was my best guess, but I'm no trade expert, especially when it comes to the Senators. I'd just be repeating what I've already said in my previous two posts (49 & 54). Motivation will be stronger for teams (& fans) with cap issues I'd think -> buyers market.

The Arizona offer is unique in that these “cap-dumps” are still very effective players that worth at least twice their actual cash compensation. Ottawa can’t take players with high cash numbers and wouldn’t be as wise to take on traditional cap dumps that are now bad players, worth less than their actual compensation.

Ottawa gets Stepan and Raanta. I’m sure neither would select Ottawa if they were UFA. I’m sure both would get UFA contracts worth On average twice what they’ll earn this season.

That makes this good value, in and of itself, for any team not spending to the cap. Arizona gave up Anthony DeAngelo and the 7th overall pick for these guys three years ago. Ottawa should be thrilled to get them for free.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

The Arizona offer is unique in that these “cap-dumps” are still very effective players that worth at least twice their actual cash compensation. Ottawa can’t take players with high cash numbers and wouldn’t be as wise to take on traditional cap dumps that are now bad players, worth less than their actual compensation.

Ottawa gets Stepan and Raanta. I’m sure neither would select Ottawa if they were UFA. I’m sure both would get UFA contracts worth On average twice what they’ll earn this season.

That makes this good value, in and of itself, for any team not spending to the cap. Arizona gave up Anthony DeAngelo and the 7th overall pick for these guys three years ago. Ottawa should be thrilled to get them for free.

If I were Ottawa, I wouldn't be going for cap dumps either. The Senators will entertain a lot of offers this off season I would imagine. Just look at the amount of trade proposals thrown their direction in here as an example. I'd guess they'll get many offers involving useful players.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

how about this:

To Car:
Raanta
Hinostroza rights

To Arz
Tierney
Dallas' 2nd rounder

To Ott
Stepan
Reimer
Hossa
Bean
Burke

Ottawa gets 15.65 million in cap hit but only 2.85 mil in actual money. A good young left defender with one more year on ELC and LW prospect who could play next season in Burke. Reimer, Hossa, and Stepan all fall off after next season and you still have Bean and Burke while spending very little in actual money next season.
Zona gets a Tierney, 10.75 million in cap savings, and a lower 2nd (partial value of Burke)
Car gets Raanta and Hinostroza's rights, both they like.

I think the fairness depends on what we value Bean. If you dont feel his value is very good then Ottawa doesnt get as much as they should and Carolina is making out like bandits. If you value him as a lower 1st rounder who is ready to play then, the value is close.

Is 10.75 million enough for Arizona to do what they need? I would be interested in adding Demers, saving y'all almost 4 more million. Canes would need to a separate deal to move Dzingel and a LHD.

 

[Kaibur]

If the Canes are interested in Raanta, how about something like:

Raanta + Hinostroza for Martinook + Nedeljkovic

 

[rt]

how about this:

To Car:
Raanta
Hinostroza rights

To Arz
Tierney
Dallas' 2nd rounder

To Ott
Stepan
Reimer
Hossa
Bean
Burke

Ottawa gets 15.65 million in cap hit but only 2.85 mil in actual money. A good young left defender with one more year on ELC and LW prospect who could play next season in Burke. Reimer, Hossa, and Stepan all fall off after next season and you still have Bean and Burke while spending very little in actual money next season.
Zona gets a Tierney, 10.75 million in cap savings, and a lower 2nd (partial value of Burke)
Car gets Raanta and Hinostroza's rights, both they like.

I think the fairness depends on what we value Bean. If you dont feel his value is very good then Ottawa doesnt get as much as they should and Carolina is making out like bandits. If you value him as a lower 1st rounder who is ready to play then, the value is close.

Is 10.75 million enough for Arizona to do what they need? I would be interested in adding Demers, saving y'all almost 4 more million. Canes would need to a separate deal to move Dzingel and a LHD.

I say YES

 

[rt]

If the Canes are interested in Raanta, how about something like:

Raanta + Hinostroza for Martinook + Nedeljkovic

His proposal was way better for us than yours.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

To Arizona:
Chris Tierney
Anders Nilsson

To Ottawa:
Derek Stepan
Vinny Hinostroza
Antti Raanta
Marian Hossa

Key points:

This is largely to help Arizona create cap space to re-sign Taylor Hall.

The deal shifts about $12M in cap to Ottawa but only increases their existing budget by about 800k since Stepan and Raanta have already been paid signing bonuses, more than half of their contracts for next season.

Hossa is only owed $200k after LTIR insurance. Hossa also helps Ottawa stay above the floor if they move out a salary like Anisimov midseason.

Raanta becomes the starter in Ottawa (assuming Anderson is done) but still leaves enough playing time for Hogberg. Nilsson backs up in AZ.

Both Tierney and Hinostroza are RFAs.

This is a great deal for Ottawa, but I'd guess that they'd rather not take Hinostroza, and just flip Tierney somewhere else for picks. They won't want to go to arbitration with Honostroza, and while he is a good player, with Stepan coming over, I doubt they want to add an additional body to the middle 6.

I also would be surprised if Tierney was a fit for Arizona in this kind of deal for the same reasons. He has a pretty solid case to get a raise in arbitration. For a team wanting to clear cap, it doesn't make a ton of sense to me.

With all that said, it wouldn't surprise me to see a simpler deal made just for Stepan at 1M salary. He's exactly what the Senators have been going after the last few seasons. A veteran who can help teach/insulate the young players, play in a variety of situations, and not cost a lot of money. I could see the Senators giving up a minor asset in the deal.

I don't like the Senators acquiring Raanta if it comes at the expense of acquiring a different starting goalie. If the Senators have no plans to upgrade in net this season, I'm fine with the Raanta/Nilsson swap. Otherwise, I think it will be counter productive because while Raanta is extremely talented, if he ends up injured again, the opportunity cost of wasting an entire season on him is big when the Senators could have gone a different direction and possibly found their starter.

In a bubble, it's a great deal for Ottawa. But I think there are a few things that might not work depending on certain factors.

 

[SensFactor]

To Arizona:
Chris Tierney
Anders Nilsson

To Ottawa:
Derek Stepan
Vinny Hinostroza
Antti Raanta
Marian Hossa

Key points:

This is largely to help Arizona create cap space to re-sign Taylor Hall.

The deal shifts about $12M in cap to Ottawa but only increases their existing budget by about 800k since Stepan and Raanta have already been paid signing bonuses, more than half of their contracts for next season.

Hossa is only owed $200k after LTIR insurance. Hossa also helps Ottawa stay above the floor if they move out a salary like Anisimov midseason.

Raanta becomes the starter in Ottawa (assuming Anderson is done) but still leaves enough playing time for Hogberg. Nilsson backs up in AZ.

Both Tierney and Hinostroza are RFAs.

Pass. There are going to be better deals/UFAs/RFAs that the Sens can look forward to.

 

[edguy]

how about this:

To Car:
Raanta
Hinostroza rights

To Arz
Tierney
Dallas' 2nd rounder

To Ott
Stepan
Reimer
Hossa
Bean
Burke

Ottawa gets 15.65 million in cap hit but only 2.85 mil in actual money. A good young left defender with one more year on ELC and LW prospect who could play next season in Burke. Reimer, Hossa, and Stepan all fall off after next season and you still have Bean and Burke while spending very little in actual money next season.
Zona gets a Tierney, 10.75 million in cap savings, and a lower 2nd (partial value of Burke)
Car gets Raanta and Hinostroza's rights, both they like.

I think the fairness depends on what we value Bean. If you dont feel his value is very good then Ottawa doesnt get as much as they should and Carolina is making out like bandits. If you value him as a lower 1st rounder who is ready to play then, the value is close.

Is 10.75 million enough for Arizona to do what they need? I would be interested in adding Demers, saving y'all almost 4 more million. Canes would need to a separate deal to move Dzingel and a LHD.

Ottawa has no room for Bean and we have 3 or 4 just like Burke but younger.

Our left side defense has Chabot, Brannstrom, Wolanin and Boroweicki who are all pretty much locked in there for next season.
If we were to take 3 big cap dumps throw something worth while our way. 1st round picks have been given up for less. If you dont wanna give up first rounders a real good RHD prospect or a Center prospect.

 

[hbk]

Ottawa has no room for Bean and we have 3 or 4 just like Burke but younger.

Our left side defense has Chabot, Brannstrom, Wolanin and Boroweicki who are all pretty much locked in there for next season.
If we were to take 3 big cap dumps throw something worth while our way. 1st round picks have been given up for less. If you dont wanna give up first rounders a real good RHD prospect or a Center prospect.

If you think Stepan and Raanta are cap dumps then I understand this post. I personally think Raanta and Stepan are very good players. Raanta would be Ottawa’s #1 and Stepan would likely fill a role on Ottawa’s 2nd line. So yes you can go grab more draft picks and spend more $ to do it instead of getting players that will actually make the team more competitive. AZ isn’t desperate to make a deal. They can time signings to the point when they can place Hossa on LTIR. With the compressed off season and crazy market I don’t believe this will be a hard sell to the player or agent.

the most likely scenario is Ottawa shipping draft capital to acquire players from cap desperate teams like Tampa. But in that equation is an expenditure of actual dollars and giving up assets in the form of either cheap young talent or draft picks. What’s the willingness of Melnyk to actually spend $ these days? That’s the starting point. If he has $ then they will go this route. If they don’t then I see Melnyk preferring the option to acquire players that are largely being paid by another club. That type of deal won’t exist with a Tampa.

 

[Big Muddy]

With all that said, it wouldn't surprise me to see a simpler deal made just for Stepan at 1M salary. He's exactly what the Senators have been going after the last few seasons. A veteran who can help teach/insulate the young players, play in a variety of situations, and not cost a lot of money. I could see the Senators giving up a minor asset in the deal.

That's the other (see below ***) kind of deal I would think Ottawa should focus on. Short term & gives the organization time to fully develop & graduate their youth when the time is right. Much less complicated and a lot more beneficial.

The Senators will get lots of offers I'd think before the puck drops next season. *** If they can get a younger player/prospect who is ready and who is stuck behind a log jam in their team's system, that would be ideal & the first priority. They can afford to pick through the offers & be selective.

Funny to see fans of teams with cap woes selling their pitches so hard - wonder why. And, this coming from a fan of the Buds LOL.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

That's the other (see below ***) kind of deal I would think Ottawa should focus on. Short term & gives the organization time to fully develop & graduate their youth when the time is right. Much less complicated and a lot more beneficial.

The Senators will get lots of offers I'd think before the puck drops next season. *** If they can get a younger player/prospect who is ready and who is stuck behind a log jam in their team's system, that would be ideal & the first priority. They can afford to pick through the offers & be selective.

Funny to see fans of teams with cap woes selling their pitches so hard - wonder why. And, this coming from a fan of the Buds LOL.

Teams like the Senators and Devils are going to be in a great position this off season to acquire good young talent that otherwise would never be made available. I could see Tampa having to move one of Sergachev or Cirelli.

A big thing that has to be considered, Seattle comes into the league in the summer of 2021. With them, they bring 81.5M of cap relief for everybody else. Or, at least about 60M since they have to hit the floor. Seattle won't just take bad contracts for cheap, but it will skew the market a bit farther away from being a buyer's market in term of cap space.

It is why I think teams like Ottawa need to capitalize this upcoming off season, rather than waiting.

 

[Big Muddy]

Teams like the Senators and Devils are going to be in a great position this off season to acquire good young talent that otherwise would never be made available. I could see Tampa having to move one of Sergachev or Cirelli.

A big thing that has to be considered, Seattle comes into the league in the summer of 2021. With them, they bring 81.5M of cap relief for everybody else. Or, at least about 60M since they have to hit the floor. Seattle won't just take bad contracts for cheap, but it will skew the market a bit farther away from being a buyer's market in term of cap space.

It is why I think teams like Ottawa need to capitalize this upcoming off season, rather than waiting.

I'd imagine they could get a guy like Killorn as well for a pretty small return as well if that was any interest to them. Andreas Johnsson from my Buds would be another example I'd think.

And your point about Seattle is prescient idea as well.