Arizona GM Chayka on Long Analytics Road

[Llama19]

Coyotes' 27-Year-Old GM Eyeing the Long Road to Becoming Hockey's Theo Epstein

To quote:

"[Arizona Coyotes GM John] Chayka is trying to do something that most certainly has never been done before, which is bring a Stanley Cup to Arizona—a franchise that has been plagued by arena and ownership hassles almost from day one. One person Chayka draws inspiration from in his quest is Chicago Cubs GM Theo Epstein, who has broken two legendary curses already with World Series titles in Boston and Chicago and who became the youngest GM in major league history with Boston at 28, in 2002.

Chayka knows hockey is played on an ice sheet, not a spreadsheet. He also knows much of his job entails human psychology and learning how to relate his vision not just with numbers but also plenty of human interaction. That's the area, he indicated, where he's still learning and needs to continue to learn."

Source: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...he-long-road-to-becoming-hockeys-theo-epstein

Click to read more...

 

[93LEAFS]

Coyotes' 27-Year-Old GM Eyeing the Long Road to Becoming Hockey's Theo Epstein

To quote:

"[Arizona Coyotes GM John] Chayka is trying to do something that most certainly has never been done before, which is bring a Stanley Cup to Arizona—a franchise that has been plagued by arena and ownership hassles almost from day one. One person Chayka draws inspiration from in his quest is Chicago Cubs GM Theo Epstein, who has broken two legendary curses already with World Series titles in Boston and Chicago and who became the youngest GM in major league history with Boston at 28, in 2002.

Chayka knows hockey is played on an ice sheet, not a spreadsheet. He also knows much of his job entails human psychology and learning how to relate his vision not just with numbers but also plenty of human interaction. That's the area, he indicated, where he's still learning and needs to continue to learn."

Source: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...he-long-road-to-becoming-hockeys-theo-epstein

I hope the best for a fellow UWO kid, but I'd say Epstein chose his first job a lot better. If he can win a cup with the Coyotes under the current CBA the kid is a legend. Also baseball is so much easier to examine analytically.

 

[bigd]

Call me old fashion but I prefer to see ex hockey players get these jobs. I think they deserve them after years of service in the sport. I'm not saying that every ex player has the experience to be in management but, all else being equal, I would prefer the ex player getting the position over just some numbers guy. I'm not expecting him to have much success in Arizona anyway.

 

[SmCurse]

Call me old fashion but I prefer to see ex hockey players get these jobs. I think they deserve them after years of service in the sport. I'm not saying that every ex player has the experience to be in management but, all else being equal, I would prefer the ex player getting the position over just some numbers guy. I'm not expecting him to have much success in Arizona anyway.

Well i think the exact opposite when I hear a guy like Hextall get a GM job, looking back Oilers for the last 10 years etc. You can't put Axl Rose to run a record company, he would run it down in a few years.

I know that there are stupid hockey players, highly intelligent hockey players and everything in between. I think scouting is more suited for someone that have been on the ice. They can probably see something that numbers won't tell. I think good GM however has to have deeper understanding to be able to see the big picture and most of all have a fair dose of objectivity.
I'm not saying that ex-players can't be great GM's, but it feels like the objectivity could be the hard part.

 

[bigd]

Well i think the exact opposite when I hear a guy like Hextall get a GM job, looking back Oilers for the last 10 years etc. You can't put Axl Rose to run a record company, he would run it down in a few years.

I know that there are stupid hockey players, highly intelligent hockey players and everything in between. I think scouting is more suited for someone that have been on the ice. They can probably see something that numbers won't tell. I think good GM however has to have deeper understanding to be able to see the big picture and most of all have a fair dose of objectivity.
I'm not saying that ex-players can't be great GM's, but it feels like the objectivity could be the hard part.

There are good and bad in every field. Just because a guy is great at analytics doesn't guarantee anything. Just as a guy that was great as a player doesn't guarantee anything. I trust a guy that has played the game at the professional level more than I would a guy who just analyzes it, JMO.

 

[Raspewtin]

Call me old fashion but I prefer to see ex hockey players get these jobs. I think they deserve them after years of service in the sport. I'm not saying that every ex player has the experience to be in management but, all else being equal, I would prefer the ex player getting the position over just some numbers guy. I'm not expecting him to have much success in Arizona anyway.

You're old fashioned.

Too many non-business minds have positions needing business expertise in hockey. Really drives home the OBC nonsense that this league is infected with.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Not really working out for him so far.

 

[bigd]

You're old fashioned.

Too many non-business minds have positions needing business expertise in hockey. Really drives home the OBC nonsense that this league is infected with.

Yes I am old fashion and I like it that way. I understand that the new fan wants to analyze everything because most have never played the game at a high level. That's fine, they have to cater to the new fan because that's where the money is. You're not going to get many more dollars out of us old folks. In my day it wasn't just about the money but that's the way all sports are going. It's more of an entertainment and merchandising business now.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Yes I am old fashion and I like it that way. I understand that the new fan wants to analyze everything because most have never played the game at a high level. That's fine, they have to cater to the new fan because that's where the money is. You're not going to get many more dollars out of us old folks. In my day it wasn't just about the money but that's the way all sports are going. It's more of an entertainment and merchandising business now.

It's ALWAYS been about the money

 

[Whileee]

I think it'll be hard to tell for quite some time because right now the Coyotes are basically on a standard money-saving tank, draft and develop plan. If they draft as well as some teams have (e.g. Leafs and Jets), then he'll likely find some success in the future, as long as he has stable and patient ownership. Beating other teams in trades and free agency might augment success in the future, but it's not very relevant now, and won't be unless they nail a few more drafts and develop their young players well. As an example, if Dylan Strome doesn't turn into a bona fide #1 C, they're trajectory will be curtailed.

 

[TheTechNoir]

Well i think the exact opposite when I hear a guy like Hextall get a GM job, looking back Oilers for the last 10 years etc. You can't put Axl Rose to run a record company, he would run it down in a few years.

I know that there are stupid hockey players, highly intelligent hockey players and everything in between. I think scouting is more suited for someone that have been on the ice. They can probably see something that numbers won't tell. I think good GM however has to have deeper understanding to be able to see the big picture and most of all have a fair dose of objectivity.
I'm not saying that ex-players can't be great GM's, but it feels like the objectivity could be the hard part.

I'm not necessarily agreeing or disagreeing here (personally I support Chayka and don't think all ex-hockey players will automatically be good management) but Hextall is probably not the best choice of example. He has been doing a fantastic job so far...

 

[left hand path]

Call me old fashion but I prefer to see ex hockey players get these jobs. I think they deserve them after years of service in the sport. I'm not saying that every ex player has the experience to be in management but, all else being equal, I would prefer the ex player getting the position over just some numbers guy. I'm not expecting him to have much success in Arizona anyway.

why does it matter at all to you?

 

[SmCurse]

I'm not necessarily agreeing or disagreeing here (personally I support Chayka and don't think all ex-hockey players will automatically be good management) but Hextall is probably not the best choice of example. He has been doing a fantastic job so far...

Yeah, he has been good. I meant that when I heard that he is going to be a Gm my first thoughts were if he was going to go berserk after losing streak and have sale etc.

 

[CraigBillington]

Yeah, he has been good. I meant that when I heard that he is going to be a Gm my first thoughts were if he was going to go berserk after losing streak and have sale etc.

Whereas, you gotta look at who he learned from. Lombardi is one of the best in the game at what he does.

You have examples all over the league of GMs who played and who didn't. Some are great at what they do, some are not. Its all about who is best for the job, not rewarding someone because they played the game. (Kevin Lowe)

 

[bigd]

I don't understand why this guy gets a pass this year from the fans. I didn't expect them to be a playoff team but, with the GM being an analytics expert, you would think the teams possession numbers wouldn't be the worst in the league. I would have thought there would be some improvement.

 

[Doctor No]

This stuff doesn't happen instantly.

 

[Tulipunaruusu*]

This stuff doesn't happen instantly.

Nor ever with this method chosen.

 

[fiveonfive]

Yes I am old fashion and I like it that way. I understand that the new fan wants to analyze everything because most have never played the game at a high level. That's fine, they have to cater to the new fan because that's where the money is. You're not going to get many more dollars out of us old folks. In my day it wasn't just about the money but that's the way all sports are going. It's more of an entertainment and merchandising business now.

Yeah, as if all old school fans all have played the game at the highest level
If you wanna watch the game and pay no attention to any of the details, no body is stopping you.

 

[fiveonfive]

The team hunted down bad-contracts of other teams to get additional assets in return for cap room and kept Mike Smith in goal. They are bad by design. Also, having a GM that is analytically savy doesn't magically transform the team's players into good players. It will take much more time and work than that.

 

[Doctor No]

Nor ever with this method chosen.

Please define "this method chosen", as you've chosen to use it.

Using analytics to help structure a hockey team?

Hiring a 27-year old GM?

Hiring a GM?

Using short-term pain to fund later success?

Something else? A combination?

 

[Tulipunaruusu*]

Using analytics to help structure a hockey team?

I favour alternative, much more established methods of foretelling from scratches in bones to reading from liver. The general mages will tell from the signs.

 

[Doctor No]

I favour alternative, much more established methods of foretelling from scratches in bones to reading from liver.

Ah, so you're not a fan. That's fine. I'm not sure why someone would deliberately ignore information, but that's up to you.

But not only do you not know that it's never worked, you also have very little idea about just how much teams actually use analytics (since a lot of them don't talk openly about what they do).

For that matter, you know that it HAS worked, since some successful teams talk about the fact that they openly work with analytics:

http://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/12370826/analytics-give-blackhawks-advantage

So again, feel free to ignore information for whatever reason you've chosen to do so. Hopefully for you, the team that you follow doesn't feel the same way.

 

[Tulipunaruusu*]

For that matter, you know that it HAS worked, since some successful teams talk about the fact that they openly work with analytics:

In Finland's SM-liiga Pelicans of Lahti recently bought and advertised 'multi-level marketed' cod liver oil as part of their physical preparation for the season. It had some marketing name but it was basically cod liver oil, from Iceland or Norway, only more expensive though. I doubt that in the NHL, even in Stanley Cup winning organizations they have much better judgment for the big picture or the small since it is very humane business after all.

Sure you can analyze games but I would like to see people come out with heatmap and pass chains analysis rather than using some bizarre shot total, plus or minus counting systems. Would think that you could use the technology inside of a NHL arena to produce it.

Blackhawks in the example are in my mind far more about Quenneville's playbook than anything of Bowman's devotion.

 

[Doctor No]

Again, feel free to pick and choose whatever information is important to you - unless you work for a team, it probably doesn't affect things anyhow.

Your middle paragraph suggests more that you don't know what teams are doing with analytics than it says about whether or not teams would be successful in using analytics.

Successful organizations have attributed analytics to their success, whether or not you choose to believe in it (or what you choose to attribute things to).

 

[fiveonfive]

I favour alternative, much more established methods of foretelling from scratches in bones to reading from liver. The general mages will tell from the signs.

In Finland's SM-liiga Pelicans of Lahti recently bought and advertised 'multi-level marketed' cod liver oil as part of their physical preparation for the season. It had some marketing name but it was basically cod liver oil, from Iceland or Norway, only more expensive though. I doubt that in the NHL, even in Stanley Cup winning organizations they have much better judgment for the big picture or the small since it is very humane business after all.

Sure you can analyze games but I would like to see people come out with heatmap and pass chains analysis rather than using some bizarre shot total, plus or minus counting systems. Would think that you could use the technology inside of a NHL arena to produce it.

Blackhawks in the example are in my mind far more about Quenneville's playbook than anything of Bowman's devotion.

What would a person like your self need to acknowledge a validity of a method?