Arithmetic Working Against Canes

[My Special Purpose]

Let's look at this realistically, using numbers and math and stuff. Over the past seven full seasons, the average requirement to sneak into the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs has been 92 points -- or 10 games over NHL .500, or 41-31-10, or .561 of a possible 164 points.

Note: To make this even more generous, instead of looking at the number of points the team in the eighth spot earned, I looked at the team in ninth place and added one point. It saves a point or three a season.

After each game, I'm going to update this thread with the percentage of points the Hurricanes would need to gain -- and a sample record -- in order to earn that magical eighth seed.

Considering our current 0-6-2 record, 74 games left and the need to reach 92 points, we'd need to earn .608 of a possible 148 points -- the equivalent of 41-25-8 record. Playing .608 hockey over a full season translates to a 99.7 point season.

My point in doing this is to show how relatively difficult it is to make up points in the NHL, and to make it clear how futile it is to continue to hold on to this playoff dream when a rebuild is necessary. Done right, a rebuild doesn't have to take 3-5 seasons. It can be done in one -- especially with the studs available in the upcoming draft. But we need to commit to it right away and not waste any more time thinking this team is something it clearly is not.

Keep in mind, this is what's needed to eek into the No. 8 seed, whereupon we'd immediately get leveled by the No. 1 seed. I'm not sure how anybody can objectively look at the Hurricanes of the past six seasons and honestly say we're a Cup contender right now. So if we're clearly not playing for the Cup, what are we really doing here? Spinning our wheels?

Click to read more...

 

[What the Faulk]

My point in doing this is to show how relatively difficult it is to make up points in the NHL, and to make it clear how futile it is to continue to hold on to this playoff dream when a rebuild is necessary. Done right, a rebuild doesn't have to take 3-5 seasons. It can be done in one -- especially with the prizes available in the upcoming draft. But we need to commit to it right away and not waste any more time thinking this team is something it clearly is not.

The way you've worded this makes me think you're dealing with chess pieces and not human beings.

 

[Sens1Canes2]

What does one think one can get for E Staal, Semin, and Ward?

 

[Identity404]

For a one year rebuild, we would need to keep our current best players, Staal, Sekera, etc, and hope we can draft McDavid or Eichel. We would probably need to buy-out Cam Ward so we have money to fill in the missing depth.

If we trade away our best players at the deadline, our rebuild is going to take a lot longer.

Are we bad enough to get a top pick? Right now it looks like it, but we still have a lot of injuries and it's early. Still think we end up outside of the top 3, unless we trade our good players, or they remain injured.

 

[My Special Purpose]

What does one think one can get for E Staal, Semin, and Ward?

Honestly, this could be the quickest rebuild ever if we trade E. Staal for the rumored package out of Toronto, resign Sekera, get a top-2 pick and buy out Cam in the summer.

Rebuild complete.

 

[nobuddy]

Honestly, this could be the quickest rebuild ever if we trade E. Staal for the rumored package out of Toronto, resign Sekera, get a top-2 pick and buy out Cam in the summer.

Rebuild complete.

So what you are saying is:

Gerbe-JStaal-Semin
Skinner-Eichel-Lindholm
Tlusty-Kadri-Rask
McGinn-Nash-??????

Sekera-Faulk
Gardiner-Hainsey
Fleury-Bellemore
Murphy

Khudobin
UFA Backup


the problem with Gardiner is that he's an LD when what we really need is a 2nd pairing RD.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Honestly, this could be the quickest rebuild ever if we trade E. Staal for the rumored package out of Toronto, resign Sekera, get a top-2 pick and buy out Cam in the summer.

Rebuild complete.

Remind us what that package is again.

--hank

 

[Navin R Slavin]

The way you've worded this makes me think you're dealing with chess pieces and not human beings.

Lazy rook is lazy.

--hank

 

[Joe McGrath]

No. Trade. Clause.

 

[Sens1Canes2]

I see Jordan Staal as the 1C, when the consensus is he's over slotted at 2C. Color me confused.

 

[My Special Purpose]

Remind us what that package is again.

--hank

The original was Kadri, Gardner and a No. 1, which we all agree is a bit steep. Leafs fans have tried to pull back either the first-rounder or Kadri, substituting Bozak. I say they can pull back one or the other, so they'll probably keep the first rounder in a strong draft, leaving Kadri/Gardner for Staal.

No. Trade. Clause.

Yadda, yadda. If the Canes wanted to trade Eric to Toronto, the NTC would be a factor to be overcome, and not a deal-breaker, IMO. There are ways ...

I see Jordan Staal as the 1C, when the consensus is he's over slotted at 2C. Color me confused.

Conor McDavid is your 1C. First of all, I think he's a step above Eichel. Secondly, I didn't say the team was ready to compete for titles. I said the rebuild was complete, in that we have the players we need. It may take a year or two of development from McDavid, Lindholm, McGinn and Fleury.

So what you are saying is:

Skinner-McDavid-Lindholm
Tlusty-JStaal-Semin
Gerbe-Kadri-McGinn
Rask-Nash-Woods?

Sekera-Faulk
Gardiner-Hainsey
Fleury-Bellemore
Murphy

Khudobin
UFA Backup

I freakin' love the idea of JStaal, Tlusty, Semin. That's a second line on par with the Brindy-led second lines of the past, isn't it? That defense still needs work, but it's a step in the right direction, no?

 

[Joe McGrath]

Kev, you know there is a lottery, right? Even if they come in last they still only have a 20% chance at getting McDavid. Hinging your entire rebuild on something that is AT best, a 20% chance is just asinine.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Kev, you know there is a lottery, right? Even if they come in last they still only have a 20% chance at getting McDavid. Hinging your entire rebuild on something that is AT best, a 20% chance is just asinine.

That's the lucky one-year rebuild.

The less lucky three-year rebuild is also possible.

But it's now impossible to avoid the idea that a rebuild of some type is necessary. This team doesn't seem capable of a 96-point pace from here on out, and barring a miraculous turnaround in the next month, we're almost certainly looking at a 6th year out of the playoffs. In November.

--hank

 

[My Special Purpose]

Kev, you know there is a lottery, right? Even if they come in last they still only have a 20% chance at getting McDavid. Hinging your entire rebuild on something that is AT best, a 20% chance is just asinine.

I'm an optimist. Sue me. If I have to take Eichel at No. 2, so be it. I just think things are going to work out for us one time. We need a guy like McDavid. Maybe Bettman will freeze our envelope or something. Plus, I think it's time to be bold. We've been in the JR/RF "never too high, never too low" cycle of boredom for way too long. Something needs to happen around here to change this culture. RF has been *hugely* disappointing to me in that regard. It's like JR never left.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I'm an optimist.

Wait, what?

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Wait, what?

A cynic is a disappointed optimist.

Don't you know anything?

--hank

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

A cynic is a disappointed optimist.

Don't you know anything?

--hank

Fair enough.

 

[GoCanes2013]

Let's look at this realistically, using numbers and math and stuff. Over the past seven full seasons, the average requirement to sneak into the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs has been 92 points -- or 10 games over NHL .500, or 41-31-10, or .561 of a possible 164 points.

Note: To make this even more generous, instead of looking at the number of points the team in the eighth spot earned, I looked at the team in ninth place and added one point. It saves a point or three a season.

After each game, I'm going to update this thread with the percentage of points the Hurricanes would need to gain -- and a sample record -- in order to earn that magical eighth seed.

Considering our current 0-3-2 record, 77 games left and the need to reach 92 points, we'd need to earn .584 of a possible 154 points -- the equivalent of 41-28-8 record. Playing .584 hockey over a full season translates to a 95.8 point season.

My point in doing this is to show how relatively difficult it is to make up points in the NHL, and to make it clear how futile it is to continue to hold on to this playoff dream when a rebuild is necessary. Done right, a rebuild doesn't have to take 3-5 seasons. It can be done in one -- especially with the studs available in the upcoming draft. But we need to commit to it right away and not waste any more time thinking this team is something it clearly is not.

Keep in mind, this is what's needed to eek into the No. 8 seed, whereupon we'd immediately get leveled by the No. 1 seed. I'm not sure how anybody can objectively look at the Hurricanes of the past six seasons and honestly say we're a Cup contender right now. So if we're clearly not playing for the Cup, what are we really doing here? Spinning our wheels?

You mean like this? It tells you exactly what you're trying to calculate - I just look at what it will take to have a better than 90% chance to make the playoffs, as of last night we'll need to go 42-25-10 (94 points). This accounts for all team results each day. It's a great site.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Metropolitan/Carolina.html

 

[Novacane]

How much do we think Tlusty will get this summer?

Might be a good trading piece at the deadline.

 

[My Special Purpose]

Wait, what?

Just because I'm willing to call it like I see it doesn't make me pessimistic. I'm actually ridiculously optimistic. I just championed a one-year rebuild in this very thread. Hell, the fact that I'm still a fan *at all* makes me an optimist. Don't confuse realism with pessimism.

 

[My Special Purpose]

You mean like this? It tells you exactly what you're trying to calculate - I just look at what it will take to have a better than 90% chance to make the playoffs, as of last night we'll need to go 42-25-10 (94 points). This accounts for all team results each day. It's a great site.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Metropolitan/Carolina.html

Yes, exactly like that. And I agree it's a great site. But for some reason, people either don't like going to the site, or they confuse a 0.00001% chance with a "realistic" chance. Your arbitrary cutoff of "a better than 90% chance to make the playoffs" doesn't seem to drive the point home to most observers that this season is nearly already lost after five games. I'm hoping that putting it in raw numbers helps.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Just because I'm willing to call it like I see it doesn't make me pessimistic. I'm actually ridiculously optimistic. I just championed a one-year rebuild in this very thread. Hell, the fact that I'm still a fan *at all* makes me an optimist. Don't confuse realism with pessimism.

I was joking. Lighten up Francis.

 

[My Special Purpose]

How much do we think Tlusty will get this summer?

Might be a good trading piece at the deadline.

I like Tlusty and I personally wouldn't trade him. Same with Sekera. For too many years I feel that we've been trading away our mid-range guys in order to fit our superstars into our budget, and that's just the wrong way to do this, IMO. A small market team can't afford to be top-heavy with superstars. We won in 2006 doing the exact opposite. We were *deep* at forward and we won by possessioning (new word, you're welcome) the other team to death.

Can somebody who can read advanced stats hieroglyphics back me up on Tlusty/Sekera value? I think they are the type guys who play on both sides of the puck that a team needs to contend. I don't think we should be trading them away, and the fact that we're considering it because we have so much money tied up in the Staals and Ward is a big part of the reason that we are where we are. I think Semin is the same -- a key two-way player on a contender -- I just wish he was making less money on a shorter-term contract, but whatever.

 

[My Special Purpose]

I was joking. Lighten up Francis.

I know, and I didn't mean to come over the top so strongly. I guess I'm excited to finally have some company on the "blow it up" bandwagon.

The thing is, I don't think we really need to blow it up. I think the two main issues right now are Eric Staal and Cam Ward, who are making a combined $15 million to do basically nothing that helps a team win at this level.

They won us a Cup, and we owe them big time. But I think five years is the statute of limitations on "what have you done for me lately after winning a title." When this season's Stanley Cup is awarded to a team other than us, it will make nine years since that title. It's time to move on.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I like Tlusty and I personally wouldn't trade him. Same with Sekera. For too many years I feel that we've been trading away our mid-range guys in order to fit our superstars into our budget, and that's just the wrong way to do this, IMO. A small market team can't afford to be top-heavy with superstars. We won in 2006 doing the exact opposite. We were *deep* at forward and we won by possessioning (new word, you're welcome) the other team to death. .

I agree, although I guess it would depend on how much we have to pay him.

Until they get out from under the Ward and Staal contracts, it's going to be tough trying to ice a "deep" team.