Are we better than we think we are?

[TheOtherOne]

I guess the real point I want to get at here is, how much of a butterfly effect can small improvements have?

I've shown in the OP that a lot of our games were very close compared to the rest of the league.
In at least 10 games, something as small as a lucky bounce or a bad penalty call could have swung the outcome of the game.

So when you talk about the "small" improvements that are inevitably coming:
- Experience and maturity for Hronek and Cholowski
- A big add with the cap space we'll have
- Zadina and this year's #5ish pick
You add a goal here and there, get more reasonable powerplay time per game, then factor in the boost in confidence that hopefully follows. These small changes can lead to a big difference. The difference between #15 and #20 isn't really very big.

I'm not saying we're winning the Cup in 2020, but I think the trend upward from here might be surprising.

 

[RedWingsfan55]

95?!? How do you have that itemized?

I definitely would not expect more than 35 from Larkin, 30 from Mantha, or 25 from Bertuzzi. That's 90. And while that's very close to your number, you phrased it as if 95 was the baseline, and more could very well happen. Both Bertuzzi and Mantha are benefiting from streaks of success, and I'm not ready to raise expectations that high based on a really good run of 10-15 games.

Well I believe if they play 82 games or at least 75+ they'll all be 30 easily. Pushing 32 33 34 and 35 for.larkin and mantha.

I also would not be surprised to see larkin or mantha pushing 40, but that's just more hope based than fact based.

 

[Hen Kolland]

95?!? How do you have that itemized?

I definitely would not expect more than 35 from Larkin, 30 from Mantha, or 25 from Bertuzzi. That's 90. And while that's very close to your number, you phrased it as if 95 was the baseline, and more could very well happen. Both Bertuzzi and Mantha are benefiting from streaks of success, and I'm not ready to raise expectations that high based on a really good run of 10-15 games.

The biggest question mark is Bertuzzi being to score much more than 20. He's pushing the top end of his effort level and getting a ton out of his tool box. Mantha on the other hand is playing with only part of his; if you believe he will have the effort level peaked, he will score in sustained bunches. This year he's scoring around 0.37 goals per game and 0.72 points per game. That's 30/31 goals and 59/60 points over an 82 game season.

I have no issue in suggesting Larkin and Mantha could reach 70 combined in a perfect storm. I don't know that Bertuzzi has that much goal scoring prowess to make up the difference. Even if they don't make it to 95, or anywhere close, that's what Zadina, AA, Hirose, Ras, Veleno are around for. We need to be running 3 lines that can score at a minimum in order to be competing with the best of the best.

 

[Pavels Dog]

The league is closer than people think, generally. You see it with how few teams have extended playoff streaks. 3 teams have a streak longer than 4 seasons, and 2 of those teams will miss this season with the holder of the longest streak actually still not a lock (Pens).
There are also only 3 teams that have won at least 1 playoff series for 2 consecutive years or more.

There's A LOT of turnover in the league.

Everyone wants us to strike gold and become the next big powerhouse that dominates for 10+ years with multiple cups. That's going to be difficult. It requires a lot of luck, timing (being bad in the right draft years), and usually comes from too much mismanagement leading to completely bottoming out.
That's simply unlikely to happen for us.

But becoming a good team, a playoff caliber team? One that can develop into a team capable of competing for cups? That could absolutely happen in the not so distant future. We are a competitive team. Maybe we won't be able to completely outskill teams, but I think we can look at a team like Boston and see how great a team can look without having a ton of top picks.

 

[obey86]

The league is closer than people think, generally. You see it with how few teams have extended playoff streaks. 3 teams have a streak longer than 4 seasons, and 2 of those teams will miss this season with the holder of the longest streak actually still not a lock (Pens).
There are also only 3 teams that have won at least 1 playoff series for 2 consecutive years or more.

There's A LOT of turnover in the league.

Everyone wants us to strike gold and become the next big powerhouse that dominates for 10+ years with multiple cups. That's going to be difficult. It requires a lot of luck, timing (being bad in the right draft years), and usually comes from too much mismanagement leading to completely bottoming out.
That's simply unlikely to happen for us.

But becoming a good team, a playoff caliber team? One that can develop into a team capable of competing for cups? That could absolutely happen in the not so distant future. We are a competitive team. Maybe we won't be able to completely outskill teams, but I think we can look at a team like Boston and see how great a team can look without having a ton of top picks.

I think we are definitely molding towards more of a Boston or Winnipeg or Nashville type of team. Teams that have lots of good players but didn't become good by tanking for multiple seasons. And there's nothing wrong with that IMO. Wings just need to make sure they consistently pick good players at the top of the draft.

 

[jkutswings]

Maybe we won't be able to completely outskill teams, but I think we can look at a team like Boston and see how great a team can look without having a ton of top picks.

Since winning the Cup in 2011, here is Boston:

2012 Lost in 1st round 3-4
2013 Lost in Finals 2-4
2014 Lost in 2nd round 3-4
2015 Missed playoffs
2016 Missed playoffs
2017 Lost in 1st round 2-4
2018 Lost in 2nd round 1-4

So one year of a great run, two years missing altogether, and a stretch of earlier exits. Obviously the championship notwithstanding, I would be disappointed if Detroit's current rebuild ended up with those results for a 7 year run. (I phrase it this way because you indicated Boston could be a sort of model, and IMO their lone Cup was more Tim Thomas playing out of his mind than how they built their roster, and I don't see Detroit having a goaltender that could even approach what Thomas did in 2011.)

 

[Hen Kolland]

I think we are definitely molding towards more of a Boston or Winnipeg or Nashville type of team. Teams that have lots of good players but didn't become good by tanking for multiple seasons. And there's nothing wrong with that IMO. Wings just need to make sure they consistently pick good players at the top of the draft.

We need to hope to be like Winnipeg on the front end and Nashville on the back end. The crop that we have emerging can be in the same breath. Obviously, in order for this to work, we need to have the recent picks pan out in a big way, especially on defense. Cholowski mid-late first, Hronek, Lindstrom, McIsaac all second rounders, all of them need to be hits. Veleno needs to be a hit. Obviously if Berggren and/or Hirose hit, you are just playing with house money, but we also need Zadina to be every bit of a 30-40 goal guy. We need Rasmussen to carry his weight (both literally and figuratively), we need the first this year to be a hit. But those two teams are who I am modelling my rebuild after, in the respective categories.

Winnipeg key forwards (no particular order):
Kyle Connor - 17th overall
Nikolaj Ehlers - 9th overall
Mark Scheifele - 7th overall
Kevin Hayes - trade(UFA) 24th overall
Patrik Laine - 2nd overall
Bryan Little - 12th overall
Blake Wheeler - 5th overall

Nashville key defenseman (no particular order):
Mattias Ekholm - 102nd overall
Ryan Ellis - 11th overall
Roman Josi - 38th overall
PK Subban - trade(UFA) 43rd overall

 

[SuperScript29]

We certainly have a lot of talent and potential, but do keep in mind that most of the games we're winning are meaningless at this point, they're either against teams that already made the playoffs or teams that are tanking.

 

[TheOtherOne]

I also kind of get the impression that people are underestimating both the chance and impact of a potential non-draft acquisition.

Yes it has been a while (mainly because of cap space and maintaining the playoff streak), but we have a history of acquiring guys like Shanahan, Hull, Hasek, Hossa, Rafalski. I'm probably missing some obvious ones. I really think [hope] something like this is coming soon, and it will be a really big deal.

 

[Hen Kolland]

We certainly have a lot of talent and potential, but do keep in mind that most of the games we're winning are meaningless at this point, they're either against teams that already made the playoffs or teams that are tanking.

The "playoff" teams we have faced have all been fighting for seeding down the stretch. Who makes the playoffs, who gets home ice, who is a wild card. The only people who view these games as meaningless are the fans.

 

[Frk It]

We need to hope to be like Winnipeg on the front end and Nashville on the back end. The crop that we have emerging can be in the same breath. Obviously, in order for this to work, we need to have the recent picks pan out in a big way, especially on defense. Cholowski mid-late first, Hronek, Lindstrom, McIsaac all second rounders, all of them need to be hits. Veleno needs to be a hit. Obviously if Berggren and/or Hirose hit, you are just playing with house money, but we also need Zadina to be every bit of a 30-40 goal guy. We need Rasmussen to carry his weight (both literally and figuratively), we need the first this year to be a hit. But those two teams are who I am modelling my rebuild after, in the respective categories.

Winnipeg key forwards (no particular order):
Kyle Connor - 17th overall
Nikolaj Ehlers - 9th overall
Mark Scheifele - 7th overall
Kevin Hayes - trade(UFA) 24th overall
Patrik Laine - 2nd overall
Bryan Little - 12th overall
Blake Wheeler - 5th overall

Nashville key defenseman (no particular order):
Mattias Ekholm - 102nd overall
Ryan Ellis - 11th overall
Roman Josi - 38th overall
PK Subban - trade(UFA) 43rd overall

Do you realize how difficult of a task this would be to pull off?

 

[jkutswings]

Do you realize how difficult of a task this would be to pull off?

And two of Winnipeg's forwards were top 5 picks, while only 2-3 teams in the league have been even close to Nashville's level of success at drafting defense in later rounds.

Would I like to emulate these respective results? Absolutely. But that's like saying I'd like to crush the stock market using a very specific approach with long odds.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Since winning the Cup in 2011, here is Boston:

2012 Lost in 1st round 3-4
2013 Lost in Finals 2-4
2014 Lost in 2nd round 3-4
2015 Missed playoffs
2016 Missed playoffs
2017 Lost in 1st round 2-4
2018 Lost in 2nd round 1-4

So one year of a great run, two years missing altogether, and a stretch of earlier exits. Obviously the championship notwithstanding, I would be disappointed if Detroit's current rebuild ended up with those results for a 7 year run. (I phrase it this way because you indicated Boston could be a sort of model, and IMO their lone Cup was more Tim Thomas playing out of his mind than how they built their roster, and I don't see Detroit having a goaltender that could even approach what Thomas did in 2011.)

We can’t/won’t be exactly like Boston, they had more of a ”mini-rebuild” while ours is more of a total rebuild. But they were 4th in the league last year and are 3rd this year. Reaching that level is a success imo, after that you need to tweak and adjust things if you don’t find playoff success. Which like we’ve seen with teams like Caps/Sharks can take a long time. If Tampa is eliminated 1st round this year I don’t see any reason to not still want our rebuild to result in a team of that caliber.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Do you realize how difficult of a task this would be to pull off?

It was mainly a comparison as to where our assets currently lie. We have Larkin, Mantha, Zadina, Veleno, Rasmussen all selected in the first, Bertuzzi and Athanasiou playing at a level expected out of first round picks which is just an added bonus. On defense, we have a mid to late first in Cholowski, and then the next top 3 guys in the organization are all second round picks.

This is purely how I view this rebuild's best chance at being a success at this stage.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

No. This is fools gold. BUT we ARE better now than with the terrible vets in the lineup

 

[ricky0034]

It was mainly a comparison as to where our assets currently lie. We have Larkin, Mantha, Zadina, Veleno, Rasmussen all selected in the first, Bertuzzi and Athanasiou playing at a level expected out of first round picks which is just an added bonus. On defense, we have a mid to late first in Cholowski, and then the next top 3 guys in the organization are all second round picks.

This is purely how I view this rebuild's best chance at being a success at this stage.

if the Wings rebuilds best chance at being a success is Cholo/Hronek/Lindstrom/McIsaac turning into a Nashville level top 4 then I don't think the words exist to adequately describe just how doomed it is

 

[jkutswings]

if the Wings rebuilds best chance at being a success is Cholo/Hronek/Lindstrom/McIsaac turning into a Nashville level top 4 then I don't think the words exist to adequately describe just how doomed it is

I would agree, but I don't think Detroit will necessarily have to rely on those 4 players as their top 4. Even if I immediately throw out any shot at landing EK, I think Detroit does have a decent chance at getting Trouba in another year, and he would be a major boost to those other players. I still don't know that Detroit would be comparable to Nashville in that department, but after that addition and the current track of development on the other kids, they would be a lot more functional than they are now.

 

[Hen Kolland]

if the Wings rebuilds best chance at being a success is Cholo/Hronek/Lindstrom/McIsaac turning into a Nashville level top 4 then I don't think the words exist to adequately describe just how doomed it is

Well once we draft some more defenseman, I will change my tune, but what other option do I have with the current core? Do you have a better idea? I'm not looking at players who aren't in the organization. No potential trades, no potential free agent signings, no potential draft prospects. Since you seem to have something else in mind, how about you tell me what the better option is

 

[obey86]

Since winning the Cup in 2011, here is Boston:

2012 Lost in 1st round 3-4
2013 Lost in Finals 2-4
2014 Lost in 2nd round 3-4
2015 Missed playoffs
2016 Missed playoffs
2017 Lost in 1st round 2-4
2018 Lost in 2nd round 1-4

So one year of a great run, two years missing altogether, and a stretch of earlier exits. Obviously the championship notwithstanding, I would be disappointed if Detroit's current rebuild ended up with those results for a 7 year run. (I phrase it this way because you indicated Boston could be a sort of model, and IMO their lone Cup was more Tim Thomas playing out of his mind than how they built their roster, and I don't see Detroit having a goaltender that could even approach what Thomas did in 2011.)

If your hopes for the rebuild are for a Red Wings or Chicago type run, i'll tell you right now, you're going to be very disappointed no matter how well this rebuild turns out.

You could have similar results as above for pretty much any team in the NHL in recent history, minus maybe the Blackhawks and Penguins.

The Lightning are the gold standard in how their team is built right? Well, in the same period since 2011, here's how they look compared to the Bruins timeline above. Same amount of final losses, the Lightning twice made it one round further than the Bruins, but also have missed the playoffs 1 more time than the Bruins have.

Bruins:
Finals loss (1)
3rd round loss (0)
2nd round loss (2)
1st round loss (2)
Missed playoffs (2)

Lightning:
Finals loss (1)
3rd round loss (2)
2nd round loss (0)
1st round loss (1)
Missed playoffs (3)

So would you be disappointed if the rebuild ends up in the same results the Lightning have gotten over the past 7 years? Because the only real difference between the Bruins and Lightning is that the Lightning made it one round further twice but also missed the playoffs one more time.

 

[ricky0034]

Well once we draft some more defenseman, I will change my tune, but what other option do I have with the current core? Do you have a better idea? I'm not looking at players who aren't in the organization. No potential trades, no potential free agent signings, no potential draft prospects. Since you seem to have something else in mind, how about you tell me what the better option is

I don't think there necessarily is one,maybe something like Trouba or a trade could help but ultimately I think any successful rebuild at this point would involve heavily leaning on a dominant forward core

which is where this winning streak really hurts because while the Wings certainly have some decent pieces up front it's very much missing some elite talent to be able to pull something like that off

honestly we'll see what happens but right now going forward I think a long term bubble team like a Minnesota is probably the most likely outcome as far as overall team strength goes

 

[jkutswings]

So would you be disappointed if the rebuild ends up in the same results the Lightning have gotten over the past 7 years? Because the only real difference between the Bruins and Lightning is that the Lightning made it one round further twice but also missed the playoffs one more time.

Absolutely. If Detroit goes through several years of delaying the rebuild, then several years of rebuilding, and they have no championships to show for it? Darn right I'd be disappointed.

Tampa Bay is a supremely talented hockey club, but if they don't win it all at least once before they have to start dismantling things, it's still be a disappointment (at least on some level).

 

[Frk It]

Well once we draft some more defenseman, I will change my tune, but what other option do I have with the current core? Do you have a better idea? I'm not looking at players who aren't in the organization. No potential trades, no potential free agent signings, no potential draft prospects. Since you seem to have something else in mind, how about you tell me what the better option is

Get another high pick (preferably top 5) or two to supplement/enhance the group you listed instead of banking on each individual member drastically out-performing their draft position (and being disappointed when they don't).

 

[obey86]

Absolutely. If Detroit goes through several years of delaying the rebuild, then several years of rebuilding, and they have no championships to show for it? Darn right I'd be disappointed.

Let me rephrase I guess. Maybe disappointed was the wrong word to use. Would you consider the rebuild a failure if the results end up like the Lightning or Bruins of the past 7 seasons? Because I don't see how the above could be considered a failure of a rebuild. If that's the standard, then teams like Nashville, San Jose, Capitals (until last year happened anyways) are failures as franchises in recent years....and I just don't believe that to be the truth.

Disappointment, sure....But if the Red Wings are as successful as the Lightning have been, that's a successful rebuild even if the end results are slightly disappointing.

 

[jkutswings]

Let me rephrase I guess. Maybe disappointed was the wrong word to use. Would you consider the rebuild a failure if the results end up like the Lightning or Bruins of the past 7 seasons? Because I don't see how the above could be considered a failure of a rebuild. If that's the standard, then teams like Nashville, San Jose, Capitals (until last year happened anyways) are failures as franchises in recent years....and I just don't believe that to be the truth.

Disappointment, sure....But if the Red Wings are as successful as the Lightning have been, that's a successful rebuild even if the end results are slightly disappointing.

That's fair. I wouldn't call it a failure. It's just that, on my top ten list of goals for the rebuild, another Stanley Cup is (what feels like) goals #1-#5, so it would still be a bitter pill to swallow.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Get another high pick (preferably top 5) or two to supplement/enhance the group you listed instead of banking on each individual member drastically out-performing their draft position (and being disappointed when they don't).

Nobody is suggesting they don't add to the roster. I feel like you're seeking something to disagree with, for the sake of disagreeing, and have latched onto something that I wasn't even speaking on.