Are we better than we think we are?

[TheOtherOne]

This season was unquestionably awful and I'm trying not to get caught up in the latest win streak. I want to try to be objective and look at stats and figure out how good/bad we really are.

Not gonna lie, I'm a superfan and I have biased pride for my team and I'm glad we're too good to drown in the standings with the likes of Ottawa and Buffalo.

That said, deep diving on nhl.com
- We have 10 OT losses (tied for #6). Converting all of them would have put us right around the middle of the standings.
- We are #30 in PP time. Of course this is tied to how bad we are, if we start playing better we get more power plays. Jumping to middle of the pack would mean 40 more PP minutes (with 20% conversion rate that's 4 more goals).
- We've won 20 1-goal games (#3 in league).
- We've lost 13 1-goal games (#1 in league).
- We've only lost 9 3-goal games (#3 in league).
- Our 5v5 shooting % and save % are both right around the middle.

Our most important core players Larkin, AA, Mantha, Bertuzzi, and Hronek are 22, 24, 24, 24, 21 years old. The average age of an NHLer is 25 years old.
I can add some 19-year olds in Zadina, Veleno, Rasmussen and 21-year Cholowski, but those are more unknown so far.

Well I'm not gonna go crazy right now but here are some quick conclusions I drew from this stuff.
Obviously everybody knew our roster this year wasn't expected to go anywhere, had a lot of holes, and has a few guys taking up space who we're all praying are ready to retire. But despite all that, we've been really competitive for the majority of the season, even when we were losing. We didn't get blown out much.

I think considering all this, and considering the fact that our core's trajectory is most likely trending upward or at worst plateauing, I think we look like a playoff team. I know we have holes, but I don't think they're as gaping as we make it out. Therefore when we talk about "fast tracking" the rebuild with some big signings I think that's more realistic than a pipe dream.

I'm not posting this to talk more about tanking or the need for a 1oa. I'm just trying to analyze the current state of the team using some real stats and figure out how good or bad we really are.

Click to read more...

 

[Hammettf2b]

We are who we thought we were!!!

 

[TheMule93]

I would have felt great about our future with a top 5 draft pick this year but that's a stretch at this point.

Hopefully the stupid ping ping balls help us

I agree I really like our young nucleus, that's why I was entertaining the thought of an offer sheet earlier. If we landed Hughes or Kakko I'd love to offer sheet an elite player.

That's two elite additions right there, plus Veleno, zadina, cholowski, mcisaac in the nearish future. I feel like we'd be back in the playoffs real fast if that all happened.

 

[HisNoodliness]

We have a -41 goal differential which is 8th worst in the league. I think that's the best stat for comparing teams so if we're being purely analytical I think it's hard to argue we're outside the 5-10 worst teams in the league. If we look at roster construction and the eye test... Personally I think only Ottawa is worse

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

IMO the real question is "Are we worse than we have been the last few games?" And the answer is, of course, yes.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

I think we can be better, heck perhaps even challenge all season for a playoff spot with and add or two on the blue line.
Problem is just squeaking into the playoffs is not the goal. Competing for cups is. And for that goal, we're still far off.

 

[Gniwder]

No, the team is not good. It's got one line plus AA, nothing else. Still needs depth scoring and defense.

 

[Ishad]

Our D, which is bad to start with, got absolutely roasted by injuries this year. So slightly better than our record, but still one of the bottom 10 teams.

 

[Konnan511]

We have a -41 goal differential which is 8th worst in the league. I think that's the best stat for comparing teams so if we're being purely analytical I think it's hard to argue we're outside the 5-10 worst teams in the league. If we look at roster construction and the eye test... Personally I think only Ottawa is worse

And that's so crazy to think because when I think of our goal-tending, I think they've generally been pretty good. I thought our goal differential with Mantha, Larkin, and AA would have us near zero. Obviously, that's not the case, but I don't know how I feel about this team and their true colors because of these past few games.

As an example, AA, I feel could have had 6-10 goals these past few games with all of his clear breakaways, but goal differential is telling us that we clearly aren't doing something right.

 

[19 for president]

Yes and no. I think our parts may be better than we thought but the team needs some very critcal adds to really be a competetive team.

Larks, AA, Bert, Mantha, Hronek are all performing very well but our depth and elite talent isn't quite there yet.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Better than we think? Yes. Because there are some that think this team is one of the absolute worst in hockey and it is a wonder that they win any games at all.

But this is still a bad team that has some really really good young pieces.

 

[Athana see you later]

Do we have one great line. Yes. However, that doesn’t mean we have enough to go to the playoffs. Look at Buffalo. Even Colorado was hurt by their lack of depth for a while

 

[Sparkzuk]

We have no goalies for the future. No #1 DPair but our bottom 4 is filling out nicely. Our top6 looks promising with Larkin, AA, Mantha, Bertuzzi performing well and Hirose and Zadina looking promising. Our bottom 6 is nothing special. As for prospects this article does a nice job. This Detroit Red Wings defense prospect looks like 'complete package'

 

[Shaman464]

No, the Wings seem to have hit a stretch of teams that are looking to the playoffs, not to winning against Detroit. This team is still hot garbage, with major holes in key positions.

 

[Roy S]

I think the first line is underrated. Larkin just went toe to toe with Crosby and thoroughly dominated that matchup. That followed an impressive performance against Bergeron from Boston and really an entire year where he's been one of the better puck possession centers in the NHL.

At this point, the Wings need to fill out the rest of their depth. They still have a ways to go, but finding a top line is often the hardest part.

 

[obey86]

I think some individual players on the team are better than many here think they are. As far as overall? No. The overall team is junk.

 

[Red Stanley]

Yes, if Blashill unplugs the line blender and lets the guys who've found chemistry actually play together. Yes, if the young guys continue on this upward trajectory and impress for an entire season, not just here and there. Yes, if we get rid of some of the dead weight. No, because we still need at least one more legit scoring line and a couple of capable defensemen in order to get into the playoff picture. We're nowhere near being a team that can go on a deep run in my honest opinion.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Yes this team is better than “we” collectively think. It’s such low hanging fruit to say this team is as bad as it was thought. At the beginning of the season, most had us pegged as a bottom 3 team.

I can honestly say we are not a bottom 3 team. Doesn’t mean we are a good team, but we received a lot of glimpses of what players are becoming, and it’s a lot better than what other teams have. The absence of star talent hurts in the optics of it, but a lot of people are just soured on the team to the point where they aren’t going to concede anything.

 

[RudeAJV]

My short answer, no, I think everyone recognizes the progression of some of the young talent on this team (especially within the past couple weeks) but there are still holes within the lineup beyond a few results changing here and there for this team to be playoff bound. Where people differ is how this team should navigate migrating from young, inexperienced talent with results to match to a playoff team with realistic SC aspirations.

I have a tough time, personally, reading into recent results too much. Larkin has been operating at this level all year, as was Bertuzzi without the recent bombardment of points and the potential of AA has always been recognizable. What we have seen from Mantha on the other hand has been one of the major differences of late. Having had the opportunity to view him often in his AHL days and now viewing his compete level of late, this is not the norm. I hope it sticks but I remain hesitant to state that he has changed permanently and this is the Mantha we will continue to see.

Looking at some of the other teams around us in the standings, I notice that Ottawa has quietly gone 6-4 in their last ten including a few wins against playoff bound teams. Partially driving their success is significant contributions from Duclair and Tkachuk along with, recently, Chabot. I don’t think anyone on this board would argue that their spell of success is going to translate to next year and they will be markedly better. That’s a bottom five team, easily. They suffer from similar issues to the Red Wings: aging veterans (one with an ugly contract), aging goaltending that will not be around for the long term and a need for top line/top pair talent. Detroit is clearly much further along in the rebuild process but I wouldn’t suggest this team is ready to take the league by storm nor compete for a playoff spot next year barring significant changes in the offseason.

tl;dr Definitely fair to be optimistic about the young talent, especially offensively, but the larger sample size suggests this team has a ways to go

 

[kliq]

No, the team is not good. It's got one line plus AA, nothing else. Still needs depth scoring and defense.

To be fair, that was not the question. He didnt ask "Are the Wings good" he asked "Are we better than we think we are?". Those are two totally different questions.
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[lilidk]

We are much better than last year. Last year almost no injuries, they couldn't play if they have 2 games in the row. This year we had to many close lussing games. This year they have a lot of comeback games.

 

[dragonballgtz]

Nope. AA and Mantha might get some goals but they do not play winning hockey.

 

[RedWingzz]

For the team being, I think our spot in the standings is pretty reflective on what kind of team we are. We aren't the worst team in the NHL, but we are still not deep enough.

There are some positives though, I think we have one of the best group of 25 and under forwards in the league, if not the best. The top line right now is just ridiculous, and if this can translate into next season, then we could make some serious noise. Of course I am biased, but I don't know if anothr team has as much 25 and under depth offensively as we have (Mantha, Larkin, Bertuzzi, AA, Zadina, Veleno, Rasmussen, Svechnikov, this years 1st).

Our defence still needs significant upgrades, but if this can be addressed this offseason, I truly believe we COULD be a playoff team next year. If I had to bet, I'd say 2020-2021 is more realistic, and that's what I have been saying for years. Everything would have to go right for us to challenge next year (continued play from our top line, consistent goaltending, upgrade on D in free agency). I am probably letting this late season hot streak skew my opinion a bit, but I still don't think it's in the realm of impossibilities that we challenge as soon as next year.

 

[RedWingsfan55]

We have an old decrepit defense that loses us games. 3 of which are back next year and they appear to want to bring kronwall back.

So overall the defense will continue to decline.

Our top line however, mantha bert and larkin is proving to be a legitimate #1 line in the league. As long as they stay healthy it's not unreasonable to get 95+ goals from those 3 at a minimum.

The rest of the offense is hot garbage besides AA. We played half the year with no #2 center, a terrible #3 center. And had 12 4th line players making up 3 lines for us.

Blashill made the decision to not juggle our top line, they excelled. Blashill tried AA out as the #2 center, he is excelling. Find another winger for AA(zadina, svech or raz hopefully) Keep helm, glendening, abby, ehn, nielson and +1 as your bottom 6.0 and we will be a better team next year...offensively

 

[jkutswings]

Our top line however, mantha bert and larkin is proving to be a legitimate #1 line in the league. As long as they stay healthy it's not unreasonable to get 95+ goals from those 3 at a minimum.

95?!? How do you have that itemized?

I definitely would not expect more than 35 from Larkin, 30 from Mantha, or 25 from Bertuzzi. That's 90. And while that's very close to your number, you phrased it as if 95 was the baseline, and more could very well happen. Both Bertuzzi and Mantha are benefiting from streaks of success, and I'm not ready to raise expectations that high based on a really good run of 10-15 games.