Are we better or worse?

[Gary Nylund]

Leafs had major turnover this summer which suggests that the team wasn't very good and improvement is the desire. However major changes to 1/2 the forward and about 1/2 the defense also comes with the downside of unfamiliarity with teammates and systems and chemistry issues of so many new faces all at once competing with each other for roster spots and ice time.

When was the last example of a team in major rebuild mode making that many changes and finding success quickly thereafter?

Leafs usually come out of the gate strong to start the season and then fade down the stretch.. This year due to the volume of changes it could effect the team particularly early on until players find their roles and spots on the team, some recovering from major injuries and others with little NHL experience.. Clarkson struggled most of the season to find his place on the Leafs.

Hard to predict what can happen when you toss 3 players together as a line that have never played together, or change all your defense pairings with a new partner than last season.

Not just hard, but impossible. Certainly it's not as simple of adding and subtracting by +- numbers that went out and came in. or points scored, or corsi numbers or anything else.

I'll be happy if the team competes night in night out. That's what we did 2 years ago and that's all I want - a team that's not an embarrassment because of poor play from a talented group who is capable of much better. And if the compete level is there, the points often follow. Funny how that works.

 

[Liferleafer]

System.....cist-em......si-stem....however you spell it, we will only be better with a better system. Try having games in which we give up less than 40 shots. Try spreading the minutes out between all 4 lines. Try not playing your 1D an average of 25+ minutes a night.

The roster changes will help, but I think the coaching changes are even more important as they may help Carlye get his head out of his ass.

 

[realgoodleafs]

System.....cist-em......si-stem....however you spell it, we will only be better with a better system. Try having games in which we give up less than 40 shots. Try spreading the minutes out between all 4 lines. Try not playing your 1D an average of 25+ minutes a night.

The roster changes will help, but I think the coaching changes are even more important as they may help Carlye get his head out of his ass.

Phaneuf played an average of 23:33 minutes.

 

[Liferleafer]

Phaneuf played an average of 23:33 minutes.

And on many nights played 25+.

 

[Gutchecktime]

And on many nights played 25+.

You know what's kind of interesting though? You know how many games he played 25+ in?

26 games.

Our record in those games was 14-6-6. 107 point pace.

 

[Liferleafer]

You know what's kind of interesting though? You know how many games he played 25+ in?

26 games.

Our record in those games was 14-6-6. 107 point pace.

The problem is, by playing our top guys big minutes on alot of nights, Carlyle burned them out.

 

[Mess]

The problem is, by playing our top guys big minutes on alot of nights, Carlyle burned them out.

There was an Olympic break however were teams had 2-3 weeks off during the season before the last 20 game stretch.

Leafs only had 3 players (Kessel, JVR and Kulemin) attend while players like Phaneuf rested. Most teams had more players attending including as many as 11 like Chicago. Teams also went deep into the playoffs also playing many more games then Leaf players.

Perhaps physical fitness & conditioning is an issue why Leafs players run out of steam by season's end?

 

[Tyler Biggs*]

I hope they play physical with the intensity of a Carlyle team. When they do, they do well (win or lose). When they don't, they play like they did last year, horribly (win or lose).

 

[Metal God]

Team looks different. Not better imo.

 

[Mess]

They say "One Man's Trash is another Man's Treasure", and "Beauty is in the Eye of the Beholder" ..

The Vancouver Canucks finish 6th last overall in a effort to get better buyout David Booth 9-10-19 points and let 10-18-28 point Santorelli go who totaled 19-28- 47 points and sign Radim Vrbata 20-31-51 points.

Leafs finish 8th last and in a effort to get better release 19-26-45 point Mason Raymond and pick up two players Santorelli (1 X 1.5) & Booth (1 X $1.1), from a team that finished even lower than them in the standings totaling 19-28-47 points combined. Santorelli and Booth are seen as one man's trash being another man's treasure as these two new players are now viewed as the ones that will have the biggest impact on Leafs next season and even playing in top 6 roles perhaps.

While 4 Teams that finished below the Leafs in the standings Florida 29th overall (Bolland 5X $5.5 mil), Calgary 27th overall (Raymond 3 X $3mil), NYI 26th overall (Kulemin 4 X $4 mil), Carolina 25th overall (McClement 1 X $1 mil) are snapping up Leafs castoffs in hopes of catching them and moving up the standings.

6 Teams that finished in the bottom 8 of the overall NHL standings last year switch spare parts among themselves in hopes of getting better and catching playoff teams and everyone is happy and everyone feels they have improved and are better for it.

 

[Morbo]

well that's only a slam on the Leafs if teams always make the right decision to cut players loose, or if a player picked up from a team below you in the standings automatically means they won't be any help.

for whatever it's worth, vancouver fans are generally pissed that santorelli was cut loose and signed elsewhere for so cheap. Polar opposite of the reactions around here for nonentities like Kulemin and McClement going to a new team.

 

[Mess]

well that's only a slam on the Leafs if teams always make the right decision to cut players loose, or if a player picked up from a team below you in the standings automatically means they won't be any help.

for whatever it's worth, vancouver fans are generally pissed that santorelli was cut loose and signed elsewhere for so cheap. Polar opposite of the reactions around here for nonentities like Kulemin and McClement going to a new team.

I'm pretty sure playoff teams and Cup contenders are not getting nervous when non playoff teams swap around spare parts, and tinker with their depth players.

Sure if one of the new players can record 19-26-45 points then he will successfully replace the departing Raymond statistically for example. However based on last year 6-24-30 points by Winnik was the most points any newcomer recorded than that will be an accomplishment in and of itself to break-even on that one switch alone.

Anaheim added Kesler so they don't need Winnik and Vancouver added Vrbata 20 goals 51 points so they don't need Santorelli, and they boughtout Booth 9-10-19 points to get rid of him and got Nick Bonino 22-27-49 points in trade so he won't be missed either. However to Toronto these cast-offs are seen as improvements to what they had.

 

[Liminality]

Sure if one of the new players can record 19-26-45 points then he will successfully replace the departing Raymond statistically for example. However based on last year 6-24-30 points by Winnik was the most points any newcomer recorded than that will be an accomplishment in and of itself to break-even on that one switch alone.

Winnik had a 0.39 ppg average (76 games 30 points) while Santorelli had 0.57 ppg average (49 games 29 points) last season. Santorelli was doing great for Vancouver until he got into injury trouble, if anyone is to replace Raymond's statistics it'll be Santorelli imo.

 

[Fonzieleaf]

I don't like the fact that people have Kontiola centring the 4th line. He is better than Santorelli and has had more success internationally. If anything, Santorelli will centre the 4th line. Not Kontiola who has way more offensive upside.

 

[Kubus]

If this team doesn't have a huge collapse as any part of the season than it's much better.

 

[theIceWookie]

So we added Kontiola, Komarov, Booth, Winnik, Santorelli, Frattin, Polak and Robidas.

We lost Gunnarsson, D'Amigo, Raymond, Kulemin, Ranger, Bolland, McClement, Gleason.

Defense is...different I guess. Swapped in some right handers for left handers. Gardiner will likely take a step in consistency and Rielly likely makes an improvement. So better, I guess? I'm not totally sure Polak will be an improvement on Gunnarsson but I'll reserve judgement on that. Robidas is getting pretty old and he's not really the same player he used to be. But he could be a nice depth option over Ranger/Gleason.

Offense is deeper. Having some players who can actually score play on the 3rd and 4th line is nothing but a good thing. It's theoretically a deeper offense. And we don't have to rely on McClement anymore thank goodness. It looks like an improvement on paper.

Plus new assistant coaches.

So on paper we got better IMO. But I'll never underestimate the stupidity and ability of Carlyle to take players and misuse them so completely.

 

[Mess]

Injuries are a part of the game.

If a top 6 center Bozak or Kadri gets hurt, who would you rather have move up into the top 6 Bolland or Santorelli/Kontiola?

If a top 6 winger gets hurt like Lupul who would you rather fill in Raymond/Kulemin or Booth/Winnik?

If one of Leafs top 6 Dmen gets hurt who would you rather replace them Ranger or Granberg/Holzer?

All of the former players have played in those spots before have the newcomers regularly?

If you have better depth should that mean you're better insulated against injuries and able to absorb player losses during the course of a season without going into a tailspin? (8 players out and 8 players in doesn't increase depth only changes it).

 

[Morbo]

I don't like the fact that people have Kontiola centring the 4th line. He is better than Santorelli and has had more success internationally. If anything, Santorelli will centre the 4th line. Not Kontiola who has way more offensive upside.

Kontiola has never played in the NHL. That's probably why people are slotting him lower than maybe he should be as a skilled forward.

 

[ShaneFalco]

But I'll never underestimate the stupidity and ability of Carlyle to take players and misuse them so completely.

Me too
Even though they've taken his toys away from him, and have basically come out and said they have to give more minutes to the third and 4th lines; brought in a better communicator with the players, stated systems would change.....wait, why did they keep him again ?

 

[glue]

So we added Kontiola, Komarov, Booth, Winnik, Santorelli, Frattin, Polak and Robidas.

We lost Gunnarsson, D'Amigo, Raymond, Kulemin, Ranger, Bolland, McClement, Gleason.

Defense is...different I guess. Swapped in some right handers for left handers. Gardiner will likely take a step in consistency and Rielly likely makes an improvement. So better, I guess? I'm not totally sure Polak will be an improvement on Gunnarsson but I'll reserve judgement on that. Robidas is getting pretty old and he's not really the same player he used to be. But he could be a nice depth option over Ranger/Gleason.

Offense is deeper. Having some players who can actually score play on the 3rd and 4th line is nothing but a good thing. It's theoretically a deeper offense. And we don't have to rely on McClement anymore thank goodness. It looks like an improvement on paper.

Plus new assistant coaches.

So on paper we got better IMO. But I'll never underestimate the stupidity and ability of Carlyle to take players and misuse them so completely.

Injuries are a part of the game.

If a top 6 center Bozak or Kadri gets hurt, who would you rather have move up into the top 6 Bolland or Santorelli/Kontiola?

If a top 6 winger gets hurt like Lupul who would you rather fill in Raymond/Kulemin or Booth/Winnik?

If one of Leafs top 6 Dmen gets hurt who would you rather replace them Ranger or Granberg/Holzer?

All of the former players have played in those spots before have the newcomers regularly?

If you have better depth should that mean you're better insulated against injuries and able to absorb player losses during the course of a season without going into a tailspin? (8 players out and 8 players in doesn't increase depth only changes it).

Its funny 2 different opinions on our depth..and yet I agree with both of you to some extent

As per IceWookie, we couldn't roll 4 lines last year with guys like Orr & Mclaren on the 4th line devoid of putting up any good minutes. We do appear, on paper atleast, to have brought in decent players who can score and put up some good minutes on that 4th line and hence we've added some depth from that perspective.

On the other hand..I agree with Mess here as well, outside of what should be an improved 4th line, I don't think we necessarily got that much better from a pure player swap perspective. Our top 6 is basically the same and the 3rd line which had Bolland & Raymond will be replaced with guys like Kontiola, Komarov, Booth, Winnik, Santorelli, Frattin. I don't necessarily see that as an improvement in our top 9.

If there is improvement, I expect it to come more from the following:

1. Growth of our young players - Kadri, Gardner, Rielly
2. Better coaching/communication/implementation of systems - this is HUGE in my opinion
3. Improved 'Team' - Sometimes its not always better players, its the right players to improve the team game, and that could happen in this case...but pretty much impossible to know..we'll have to see

 

[Tyler Biggs*]

I was going to use that same point towards you.

My hypothetical example 3 X Mason Raymond's scoring 19-26-45 points each = 57-78-135 points for about the same cap hit (~$8 mil) as Kessel 37-43-80 points. You claimed Kessel offense couldn't be replaced by quantity but it would be > 1.5 X more offense. Even 2 X Raymond's offense = 90 points > Kessel's 80.

Now you're saying quantity for quality is making the Leafs better which is the opposite of your previous position.

The difference being being from my perspective;

If Raymond for $1 mil records 19-26-45 points and Santorelli (now $1.5 mil) + Booth (now $1.1mil) combined for 19-28-47 points (last year) I don't think better by change. I see quality for quantity in an attempt to replace former players sure but you're now spending $2.6 mil cap to replace the offense of a former $1 mil player and their offense combined only equals Raymond so its not better.

The expensive player is usually the better player.. STL signed Paul Stastny for $7 mil and Leafs signed Mike Santorelli for $1.5 mil. Who is the better player and who would have made the Leafs better if you could have had either? Its the same concept (not same equal player) that is no different than Bolland getting 5 X $5.5 mil and Santorelli getting 1 X $1.5 mil and you saying Santo is the better player. Then how can you explain why Boland got $27.5 mil and Santorelli $1.5 mil as UFAs? Leafs even offered Bolland > $20 mil to stay.

However if I look at individual players changes and have to pick between Bolland and his 2 Stanley Cups and (67 games 17-26-43 playoff points) and compare him to Mike Santorelli a player 28 years old who was actually playing in AHL in 2012-13 season as well as claimed on waivers after recording only 2-2-4 NHL points during the lockout year that has been on 5 different non playoff teams and never played a single NHL game in his entire career (while Bolland was scoring the Cup winning goal). Clearly Bolland is the better player and their new contracts the proof.

I think your mixing concepts here as better player and better cap management are two completely different issues. I never wanted the Leafs to pay Bolland the $5 mil they offered him, but I also don't think replacing him with Santorelli means they got the better player either.

Actually I think Nonis did alright signing the players he did ...Raymond has great speed and some scoring touch but not much else to the table for what this team really needs ..I think the Leafs have improved somewhat but team chemistry is always a question mark with so many new players ...guess we'll see how all this pans out in Oct.

 

[Faltorvo]

I remember not that long ago fans stating

"If we did better in OT/shootouts" we would be a playoff team

"If we got better goal tending" playoffs

"If we got better power play" playoffs

Well guess what kiddies, we got ALL 3 into the ELITE LEVEL last season compared to the rest of our competition and it all added up to a 8th last place finish.

Weighting who's in and who's out , predicting what " team stats will rise and drop" compared to our competition , adjust for what changes our competition has made and

this all points toward a bottom 5 finish in the league.

no team mvp level .923 sv% from berny last season and this is/was a bottom 4 drafting team and of that there should be little doubt

 

[Pyrophorus]

I don't like the fact that people have Kontiola centring the 4th line. He is better than Santorelli and has had more success internationally. If anything, Santorelli will centre the 4th line. Not Kontiola who has way more offensive upside.

Mike will end up as the 2nd line RW. Holland for the 4th line C

 

[Pyrophorus]

I
Well guess what kiddies, we got ALL 3 into the ELITE LEVEL last season compared to the rest of our competition and it all added up to a 8th last place finish.

That's 2 parts, not one. We had elite level until 26 games left in the season.
After that point, we had nothing elite.

 

[FerrisRox]

Kontiola has never played in the NHL. That's probably why people are slotting him lower than maybe he should be as a skilled forward.

Yes, he has.