Are the Pens trending up, down, or treading water?

[Al Smith]

While I agree with you, if they dont bring in a stop gap, what other option is there?

You either play your horses until they burn out and disaster possibly strikes OR you play lesser guys well above their level and disaster possibly strikes.

Honestly, I think this is a transition year for the Pens. They likely make the playoffs as a lower seed but possibly miss by a point or two.

I'm assuming the following:
1) no more D are brought in and the defense is a freaking nightmare
2) 1 top 6 winger is brought in and we finally have two decent scoring lines

The D will be a mess and the 3rd and 4th lines will be "meh" at best. This is what Im expecting this season. Next year they can further retool and get a few steps better.

Did I miss Scuds being bought out? I - unfortunately - don't think he'll be gone, and in addition, they might bring in another "veteran" D. This org is so reluctant to play its young D, I suspect you'll see first six as: Letang, Olli, Lovejoy, Scuds, Dumoulin, and Cole. I know MJ loves DP, but I think DP will be getting more playing time in WBS.

If they bring in another veteran D, my guess is they'll move Dumoulin or Cole, most likely Dumo.

 

[CanadianPensFan1]

Did I miss Scuds being bought out? I - unfortunately - don't think he'll be gone, and in addition, they might bring in another "veteran" D. This org is so reluctant to play its young D, I suspect you'll see first six as: Letang, Olli, Lovejoy, Scuds, Dumoulin, and Cole. I know MJ loves DP, but I think DP will be getting more playing time in WBS.

If they bring in another veteran D, my guess is they'll move Dumoulin or Cole, most likely Dumo.

I think Scuds is gone and they will do whatever they can do get rid of him. If he stays, then the D is in even worse shape and I dont want to think about that.

I can see them bringing in a vet .. it is their standard operating procedure. But, they said they wanted to go younger on D so Im going with that until I see otherwise. Hence, my assumptions in my previous post.

 

[drpepper]

I think Scuds is gone and they will do whatever they can do get rid of him. If he stays, then the D is in even worse shape and I dont want to think about that.

I can see them bringing in a vet .. it is their standard operating procedure. But, they said they wanted to go younger on D so Im going with that until I see otherwise. Hence, my assumptions in my previous post.

If they ship Lovejoy out and buy out Scuderi (presuming no one is interested in trading for him) and sign Franson (will be 28) or Sekera (29) that's younger right?

Maatta-Letang
Pouliot-Franson/Sekera
Dumoulin-Cole
Chorney

right?

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

Down unfortunately. The supporting cast is mediocre, so this team goes as Crosby/Malkin go. And they are starting their decline..they're still top players, but not as good as they used to be. On ice results are also in decline, as pens just finished with a sub 100 point season and a first round loss. General perception also in decline, as no one considers Pittsburgh a top team that's to be feared anymore. Look at the youth, speed, skill, and depth on Tampa. This team has nothing on them for the forseeable future. We would need Kapanen and Sundqvist to be immediate impact players, and for Pouliot to become an impact offensive dman to get back on the upswing.

 

[AjaxTelamon]

If they ship Lovejoy out and buy out Scuderi (presuming no one is interested in trading for him) and sign Franson (will be 28) or Sekera (29) that's younger right?

Maatta-Letang
Pouliot-Franson/Sekera
Dumoulin-Cole
Chorney

right?

There just isn't much motivation or value in shipping out Lovejoy though. He's only 1.1, and is perfectly fine on the 3rd pairing. And he's a righty. I could see them going after Franson and keeping Lovejoy, which would place an over-emphasis on handedness IMO, but who knows.

In that case, DP would be the odd man out, since Cole and Dumo would be waiver eligible. Unless they want to sit Dumo in the pressbox.

Cole should be able to handle mid-pairing minutes and assignments though, which helps us greatly. If it weren't for how well Cole played, we'd be in a much worse place. As awful as the Despres trade was, the Cole trade might have been almost as lopsided to our favor.

 

[CanadianPensFan1]

If they ship Lovejoy out and buy out Scuderi (presuming no one is interested in trading for him) and sign Franson (will be 28) or Sekera (29) that's younger right?

Maatta-Letang
Pouliot-Franson/Sekera
Dumoulin-Cole
Chorney

right?

Strictly by definition? Yes I just dont think it will happen. Again, Im making a guess here .. nothing more. I think they will move out Scuds (however they do it is not important) and thats it. I dont think they bring in another D and will finally let the youngin's play. There will be growing pains but such is life.

If they want to retool the forward ranks, particularly the 2nd line (assuming Perron/Horns are with Sid), this is how they are going to have to do it. I cant see any other way .. even if they move out Kunitz . .itsnot enough of a cap savings to pull off getting 2 top 4 wings. Its wont even be enough to bring in a top 4 wing and a top 6 to play the roll of a top 4.

The only way to do that is to limit the cap space on the D. Assuming they bring back Cole and Dumo at ~$1.5 each:

Perron (3.812) - Sid (8.7) - Horns (4.25)
XXX - Geno (9.5) - XXX
Dups (3.75) - Sutter (3.3) - Bennett (1.5)
Spaling (2.2) - Lapierre (1.5) - Comeau or Winnik or whoever else (2.5)


Letang (7.25) - Maatta (.894)
DP (1.288) - Cole (1.5)
Dumo (1.5) - Lovejoy (1.1)

Maf (5.75
back up (1.25)


Thats $61ish million. Leaving around $10mil to get two wingers. If they bring in another vet D at $5mil (which is against everything they have said), they wont get their two wingers. Its just that simple.

Also .. relax on the commentary on the line up. This isnt what I WANT to see .. just what Im expecting to see, sadly.

 

[cajal]

The team is trending downward for now. Once upon a time all we heard from ownership/management/coaches was "we want to be hard to play against".

Over the last six years, we've steadily developed into a team that everyone wants to play against. It's really sad, actually.

Just because they're trending downward doesn't mean they're beyond repair though, I guess we'll see soon. I hope they change their philosophy soon, otherwise that downward slope will be a heck of a lot more steep.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

We had been treading water under Shero/DB, and last year we trended down considerably. Scored way less, won way less, bounced in 5 in the 1st round.

We can stem the tide, but it will require some sharp decisions and good trades that I don't think Generous JR is capable of.

 

[shizno*]

Can we talk about the injuries this year? Were they supposed to win the cup without Letang/Maatta/Dupuis and whatnot?

 

[AjaxTelamon]

We had been treading water under Shero/DB, and last year we trended down considerably. Scored way less, won way less, bounced in 5 in the 1st round.

We can stem the tide, but it will require some sharp decisions and good trades that I don't think Generous JR is capable of.

In all of these repetitive discussions, how do people keep forgetting that we were down 3 of our top 4 D men in the playoffs and for big chunks of the year? Not to mention Dupuis, and significant injuries to Perron and Hornqvist?

How do you think the Blackhawks would do without Keith, Seabrook and Hjalmarsson, and just take out Shaw for good measure? What about the Lightning without Hedman, Stralman, Garrison and a Callahan?

The roster is flawed, yes, but there's no team with any significant injuries that made it out of the 1st round this year.

We need an injection of (our own) youth, adding a top 6 winger, and some depth, and we're as good as anyone. Even the Hawks, despite the cap-evading Hossa and Keith contracts. Which everyone seems to forget when it makes their point. Chicago has done a good job, but their salary cap is 5 mil higher than every other teams (except Detroits), but no one seems to figure that in.

 

[gordie]

Stagnate. Got rid of Despres finally but then added unneeded baggage like Lovejoy. I expect these kinds of pointless moves to continue as long as Rutherford is around and they do things by Morehouse's hockey version of a Democratic committee in the GM job.

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

We had been treading water under Shero/DB, and last year we trended down considerably. Scored way less, won way less, bounced in 5 in the 1st round.

We can stem the tide, but it will require some sharp decisions and good trades that I don't think Generous JR is capable of.

There is no way that the last 5 years of the Reign or Ray can be considered "treding water". It was the mother of all downfalls.

This year was at worst treading water, and would have been trending up w/o the Des and Winnick moves.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

In all of these repetitive discussions, how do people keep forgetting that we were down 3 of our top 4 D men in the playoffs and for big chunks of the year? Not to mention Dupuis, and significant injuries to Perron and Hornqvist?

How do you think the Blackhawks would do without Keith, Seabrook and Hjalmarsson, and just take out Shaw for good measure? What about the Lightning without Hedman, Stralman, Garrison and a Callahan?

The roster is flawed, yes, but there's no team with any significant injuries that made it out of the 1st round this year.

We need an injection of (our own) youth, adding a top 6 winger, and some depth, and we're as good as anyone. Even the Hawks, despite the cap-evading Hossa and Keith contracts. Which everyone seems to forget when it makes their point. Chicago has done a good job, but their salary cap is 5 mil higher than every other teams (except Detroits), but no one seems to figure that in.

I have never forgotten them.

The injuries we had in the playoffs did us no favours, to be sure, but our injuries in the regular season were no worse than the season before, and that's if I'm being diplomatic. Yet our scoring and regular season standings plummeted. That is what constantly gets glossed over in this "blame the injuries" game.

 

[UnrealMachine]

Down. Here is their regular season goals/game league ranking and goal differential over the last 3 seasons:

12-13: goals/game = 1st, +0.90
13-14: goals/game = 5th, +0.46
14-15: goals/game = 19th, +0.16

That's a troubling trend that has now turned into a staple of the playoff series the Pens ultimately are eliminated in. Meanwhile, goal prevention has been steady finishing 12th, 10th and 10th over the last 3 seasons.

 

[xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]

You wanna know why people still ***** about the Despres deal? It sucked. It sucked then, it sucks now, and it will continue to suck for years.

Let's see how the trade fared based on different metrics. Assets value vs. asset value? Significant loss. Current impact? Significant loss. Future impact? Egregious loss. Potential? Laughable. A young, stud defenseman traded for... A 31 year old never-was, borderline NHLer that just a couple of seasons before we traded for whatever we could get (a 5th).

Yes, the Despres trade was horrific. It ****ed us over then, and it will continue to **** this team over for years to come. So now, instead of having Maatta, Letang and Despres as your top 3 defensemen, you have Maatta, Letang, and ... Who? Cole? Lovejoy? Dumoulin? If you don't think that's a dramatic and precipitous drop-off, god help you.

 

[Your Boy Troy]

With Jim Rutherford as the GM; they will continue to be a non-legitimate contender and have a few to no blue-chip prospects. How are they suppose to compete if this team keeps on trading away draft picks and prospects for marginal players?

Ben Lovejoy, Daniel Winnik, Marcel Goc, Lee Stempniak, Douglas Murray, Brenden Morrow, and Jordan Leopold. Such garbage.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

You wanna know why people still ***** about the Despres deal? It sucked. It sucked then, it sucks now, and it will continue to suck for years.

Let's see how the trade fared based on different metrics. Assets value vs. asset value? Significant loss. Current impact? Significant loss. Future impact? Egregious loss. Potential? Laughable. A young, stud defenseman traded for... A 31 year old never-was, borderline NHLer that just a couple of seasons before we traded for whatever we could get (a 5th).

Yes, the Despres trade was horrific. It ****ed us over then, and it will continue to **** this team over for years to come. So now, instead of having Maatta, Letang and Despres as your top 3 defensemen, you have Maatta, Letang, and ... Who? Cole? Lovejoy? Dumoulin? If you don't think that's a dramatic and precipitous drop-off, god help you.

The Despres trade will continue to suck, but I think you're selling Lovejoy short. I think playing minutes more in line with what he's capable of will make a difference, even if it won't come close to making the trade defensible.

Cole - Letang
Maatta - Lovejoy

Could be a good complementary top 4 if Maatta's 100% and Lovejoy regains form playing minutes he can handle.

 

[xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]

Nice, we're gonna put Cole on the top pairing now. The guy looked good compared to utter garbage. I'm not sold on him at all just yet. It's like the chick with average looks suddenly looking like a supermodel when she's surrounded by her fat, ugly friends.

I get the "spread out the talent" thing for the blueline, but there's no talent to spread. We have Maatta and Letang, and then a significant drop. Pouliot will be a top 4 someday, but today's not that day. Lovejoy shouldn't sniff anything above bottom pairing minutes or responsibility. I don't think Cole's a legitimate top 4 defenseman either, but a good bottom pairing guy.

I dunno. The blueline's ****ed beyond the top pair.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Nice, we're gonna put Cole on the top pairing now. The guy looked good compared to utter garbage. I'm not sold on him at all just yet. It's like the chick with average looks suddenly looking like a supermodel when she's surrounded by her fat, ugly friends.

I get the "spread out the talent" thing for the blueline, but there's no talent to spread. We have Maatta and Letang, and then a significant drop. Pouliot will be a top 4 someday, but today's not that day. Lovejoy shouldn't sniff anything above bottom pairing minutes or responsibility. I don't think Cole's a legitimate top 4 defenseman either, but a good bottom pairing guy.

I dunno. The blueline's ****ed beyond the top pair.

Well, we'll see. Cole looks like a frontrunner for some sort of top 4 duty at this point...he was reliable if unspectacular last year, even with 23 minutes a night in the PO. Lovejoy was literally brought in for top 4 duty, and I don't think last year changed that.

A Cole/Lovejoy pairing's a non-starter, but I think both could work paired with talents like Letang and Maatta who can do the heavy lifting possession-wise while the other two play stay-at-home.

For me, they're the first recourse options to start next year, barring one of them ******** the bed or some youngster having a stellar camp.

 

[Freeptop]

Reply Hazy. Ask Again in October.

Less sarcastic answer: There are just too many things that can and should happen between now and the end of Training Camp to truly answer that question.
Do the Pens make any trades?
Do they trade or buyout Scuderi and/or Kunitz?
Who do they sign in free agency?

I think we'll get our first feel for things at the draft, and another on July 1st. After that, it will come down to who makes the team.

The last couple of years I'd say they've been trending downwards. This offseason is absolutely critical as to whether they turn things around, or dig themselves further into a hole.

 

[Joejosh999]

Cole top pair? I thought JR basically confirmed its Letang-Maatta. Which does leave some, um, gaps and questions marks.

 

[Joejosh999]

DOWN.
in the East, trending down.
In Metro, nose-diving.

This summer will tell whether they have a chance at any kind of recovery.

But every game I watch in the SCF re-inforces my belief that they aren't close to competing at the elite level. Not by a long shot. It's very depressing.

 

[TNT87]

Trending down. I use to be one of the most optimistic people around. However, right now I don't have any confidence in any aspect of this team when it comes to management and making sound decisions.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

We had been treading water under Shero/DB, and last year we trended down considerably. Scored way less, won way less, bounced in 5 in the 1st round.

We can stem the tide, but it will require some sharp decisions and good trades that I don't think Generous JR is capable of.

I know we said this last year as well, but shedding some of the dead weight is an absolute must to even begin to think this team is heading in the right direction. If guys like Kunitz/Scuderi/etc. are not only still around in September, but still being used in key roles, I don't have an ounce of faith this organization will turn it around.

The lack of talent up front, particularly on the wing, is disconcerting. Compare the two current Cup finalists (Tbay and Chicago) to what the Pens have, and it's laughable. Lightning are often playing Callahan on the third line, and Chicago's bumping Sharp all over the lineup depending on Quenville's mood. Both those guys would be mainstays in the Pens' top six.

The Pens' forward drafting hasn't done any favors, either. When you look at guys like Palat and Kucherov, or the Hawks with guys like Saad, Shaw, and Teuravainen, it's painful to see.

 

[Ugene Magic]

The Pens challenged for cups earlier than they hoped, and with huge injuries, loss of some of what made them challengers was inevitable going to trend them backwards<---in place of down. Add that to some bad decisions...

That's what bad things do to plans.

Pens loss time to many circumstances.

This past year was treading water until they could make more adjustments after another year of setbacks.