Are the Montreal Canadiens not as bad as people expected them to be?

[Brownies]

The problem with everyone's projection of the Habs going into this season is that they based it off of last year's result, in which Carey Price sported a .900 sv% and they shot with a league-low shooting%. If you adjust for 49 games of Price at .920 instead of .900, you're saving 29 goals. You adjust the shooting percentage to league average, you're looking at an additional 30. Add 59 goals to a -51 goal-differential team, and you've got a +8 team. A bubble team

Broke even on corsi, fenwick, scoring chances. Top-5 in high-danger corsi. They were never as bad as your narrative wanted them to be. More unlucky than bad

For the record, I had them as a 96-point team before the Pacioretty trade

Habs were BAD last year. Their shooting percentage was bad because they could not get close enough and get really good chances. Cannot blame bad luck on everything and twist the numbers. Price played bad, but not a lot of goalies in the history of the game could’ve played well with the way the D played last year.

I don’t think you can twist the number like you did, those bad ones were earned. The D has been stabilized with the young guys, the way the team forechecks fits our speedy guy. Kotkaniemi, Domi and Peca are playing like NHL centers should, which also helps of course. I don’t see a simple return to the mean for this team, the coaches and management have made the right changes for once.

Will it hold ? I think we’re too young and small but there’s hope in Montreal. I like this team.

 

[Mr Tadakichi]

Habs are top of Atlantic

 

[Help]

Habs were BAD last year. Their shooting percentage was bad because they could not get close enough and get really good chances. Cannot blame bad luck on everything and twist the numbers. Price played bad, but not a lot of goalies in the history of the game could’ve played well with the way the D played last year.

I don’t think you can twist the number like you did, those bad ones were earned. The D has been stabilized with the young guys, the way the team forechecks fits our speedy guy. Kotkaniemi, Domi and Peca are playing like NHL centers should, which also helps of course. I don’t see a simple return to the mean for this team, the coaches and management have made the right changes for once.

Will it hold ? I think we’re too young and small but there’s hope in Montreal. I like this team.

They were getting chances. The numbers reflect this. They were getting a little more than half in any given game. If you're finishing dead last in shooting% when you're getting more than half the chances, you're pissed off a deity somewhere along the line

As for Price, he's backstopped teams that allowed more chances against with far better individual results. His heart year for example. Or, perhaps more impressively the .927 season he had put up the year before that. To imply that a 20 point drop off his career average is the result of shot quality, when it's never been an issue in the past is suspect. Maybe calling this luck is unfair. It is on him. And to design a team that depends on one man as much as they do is a design flaw. But for him to struggle as bad as he did was rather unlikely

With regards to this year's edition: Kotkaniemi came out of nowhere, and has been a wunderkind. Domi and Tatar have both been better than I expect. Julien, perhaps noticing that the strength of this team is speed and goaltending, has decided to play an uptempo game to good results. Already almost 3 points ahead on my 96 points prediction. Very pleased. They're doing a lot right

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

Habs are top of Atlantic

Top of the Eastern Conference!

 

[JianYang]

I'm not sure what to make of price so far. I mean, he isn't losing games, but he isn't winning games either.

He just looks like any other run of the mill goalie so far, except he makes way more money. I think if anyone would think the habs would be 5-1-2 at this point, then price would have to be the best player. This just hasn't been the case.

 

[Rhaegar Targaryen]

Sorry, this is a dumb post.

Montreal may or may not be a good team but nothing was easy about that game.

Not to mention, judging them based on a single game.

Perhaps we disagree on the definition of easy. I consider 12 shots in two periods + OT to be pretty easy work.

 

[NyQuil]

Perhaps we disagree on the definition of easy. I consider 12 shots in two periods + OT to be pretty easy work.

It would be if an NHL game was only comprised of 2 periods and OT.

To be honest, to say it was easy is a bit disrespectful of the effort Ottawa put in, IMO.

Montreal is ahead of a bunch of teams in the standings and have outplayed their opponents in most of not all of their wins.

I think you have to respect that, whether you like them or not.

 

[Rhaegar Targaryen]

It would be if an NHL game was only comprised of 2 periods and OT.

To be honest, to say it was easy is a bit disrespectful of the effort Ottawa put in, IMO.

If you read my post history in the thread, you would have seen that I was talking specifically about periods 2+3+OT.

In the first period Montreal looked solid while Ottawa was chasing around the puck in their own end.

 

[NobleSix]

As much as I would rather see them tank and get another bucket load of good prospects, they have actually looked really good so far.

Lots could change of course, but as of right now they are playing great hockey.

 

[22Brad Park]

Its October

 

[Subbanned]

We are currently not playing that bad but over the course of 82 we will be that bad

 

[MaxDummy]

This team went from bleak and boring to young, fast and exciting over night.

And he's the one who made it bleak and boring in the first place, so...

 

[Kunta Kinte]

PPl think tanking will automatically lead to a great player... might not be the case.

 

[Kunta Kinte]

We are currently not playing that bad but over the course of 82 we will be that bad

Why you say that? We got forward depth, our D squad is actually decent minus Weber. So with him its good. I like Petry, Reilly, and teh youngster aren't bad.

I think thats a 45 wins team. Should be good enough for 5-6th in the East.

I haven't seen one team so far skating as fast and having a transition game as polished... It will get harder for sure... But we will not be "that" bad. They actually played really good.

 

[ole ole]

Ottawa slept through the first period and allowed three goals. When they woke up and realized there was a game, Montreal did not look good. At all. Sorry :/

Habs owned them the 1st period and scored 3 goals and then decided to sleep the rest of the game. See what i did there.

 

[GHJimmy]

It's really hard to predict how they'll do in this wholesome season, it's much more entertaining to watch them play against top teams and how they're handling it! But I want them to tank this season for a possible Sniper or another top centre

 

[40Armia]

Its October

Yes i know right !! Look at Detroit and the Rangers. They are already out of it.

Feeling the pain Bawston ?

 

[40Armia]

We are currently not playing that bad but over the course of 82 we will be that bad

Lol says a still butt hurt subban fan. Good luck with that !! These kids are the real deal. Habs got rid of their poison. Patches Chucky Subban etc

 

[Number 57]

I would be fine with competing hard and trying to get a playoff spot until the end. Missing wouldn't be the end of the world. The team is very young and it would be a great experience for them. Much better than losing all year and finishing last, I'll tell ya that. Doing that didn't give much benefit to EDM, ARZ, BUF, etc

Barely missing the playoffs also mean we'll be in the lottery, which is nice.

The only thing is Bergevin cannot and I repeat cannot trade draft picks for veteran players at the deadline, even if we're in playoff position. Benn, Plekanec and Andrew Shaw have to be traded for draft picks. Not the other way around. We have plenty of depth to cover. Even Poehling might join the team in March.

 

[sandysan]

Its October

Brian savage,where area you?

 

[Godzilla]

It would be if an NHL game was only comprised of 2 periods and OT.

To be honest, to say it was easy is a bit disrespectful of the effort Ottawa put in, IMO.

Montreal is ahead of a bunch of teams in the standings and have outplayed their opponents in most of not all of their wins.

I think you have to respect that, whether you like them or not.

Your objectivity is incredibly refreshing, but as fun as this start to the season has been for us, I just do not see them being able to sustain it. This team has all the work ethic in the world, but no high end talent to compliment it.

They are fun to watch though so far...

 

[NyQuil]

Your objectivity is incredibly refreshing, but as fun as this start to the season has been for us, I just do not see them being able to sustain it. This team has all the work ethic in the world, but no high end talent to compliment it.

They are fun to watch though so far...

We’re in a similar boat.

 

[LeafFever]

The NHl has so many teams so close that having Price rebound is enough to have the Habs go from bottom 5 expectations to a playoff spot.

 

[Godzilla]

The NHl has so many teams so close that having Price rebound is enough to have the Habs go from bottom 5 expectations to a playoff spot.

Thats the interesting thing...Price has not had to stand on his head at all thus far, not even picked as a star in any games he has played. He has been good, but nothing special. If he wakes up, it could make things interesting.

 

[Brownies]

The Habs and Sens have been the laughing stock of the NHL, have traded their captains and are now surprising everyone with their great start. Lots of similarities.