Are the Leafs really "struggling" or do they just get outshot because they always have the lead?

McDavidCrushedLarkin

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Jun 12, 2016
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They just aren't that good. The wheels are starting to come off without Matthews around to carry the load. The so called "depth" (lol) isn't as great as they want you to believe either.
 
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LeafGrief

Shambles in my brain
Apr 10, 2015
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Aren't you concerned even in the least that quite literally everyone on the Leafs, but for Matthews and Rielly, are seeing a significant drop in production this year? This is happening in a year where scoring is way up too (last year: 8 players in the top 50 were @ ppg or better. This year so far: 27 out of 50). It's a team-wide regression over 41% of the season: not an insignificant sample.

I mean, a truly abysmal division and Andersen playing at Tim Thomas levels (938 sv% for November & December, while playing behind a defense who is giving up shots to the tune of third worst in the entire league), is probably going to be enough to be in the playoffs. But going far it's going to be a very, very tall order.

Of course I'm concerned, I'd have to be blind or dumb to not be concerned. But I also recognize that most of them were completely on pace to meet their numbers until roughly mid November when the whole team began the slide. We've played 41% of the season, but the actual regression has been much shorter than that. For example, Kadri had 23 points in the first 27 games and is now pointless in 7. If Kadri was playing like a 50 point player all year, I'd be worried. But he played like a 70 point player for the first 27 games so why should we panic over seven games of slump? 27 games wasn't enough to anoint him a 70 point player, so seven games certainly isn't enough to call him a 50 point player.

The same thing goes for the team itself. Before the slide began, the Leafs were getting absolutely atrocious goal tending and were demolishing teams in possession and scoring. Since the "slide" began, they've been getting outshot and outplayed but saved by elite goaltending. So which of those is the real Leafs? The reality is almost certainly somewhere between the two. What's funny and what my last post was about was that how some people, and you are absolutely a culprit of this, are choosing to focus only on the negatives of the season. Sure, if the Leafs play like this the rest of the season then they'll crawl into the playoffs and are first round bait. But if the Bruins played like they did for the first 17 games of the season (6-7-4) they wouldn't make the playoffs at all. Focusing on that specific stretch of games seems pretty dumb to me, considering that there are 12 more games that the Bruins have played and which are obviously relevant when considering what looks like a good team. Discussing the current struggles of the Leafs is relevant and interesting hockey discussion. Extrapolating those struggles to the rest of the season and calling the whole team a "paper tiger" despite the other 50% of the season being evidence to the contrary is just wishful thinking.
 
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BruinLVGA

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Of course I'm concerned, I'd have to be blind or dumb to not be concerned. But I also recognize that most of them were completely on pace to meet their numbers until roughly mid November when the whole team began the slide. We've played 41% of the season, but the actual regression has been much shorter than that. For example, Kadri had 23 points in the first 27 games and is now pointless in 7. If Kadri was playing like a 50 point player all year, I'd be worried. But he played like a 70 point player for the first 27 games so why should we panic over seven games of slump? 27 games wasn't enough to anoint him a 70 point player, so seven games certainly isn't enough to call him a 50 point player.

The same thing goes for the team itself. Before the slide began, the Leafs were getting absolutely atrocious goal tending and were demolishing teams in possession and scoring. Since the "slide" began, they've been getting outshot and outplayed but saved by elite goaltending. So which of those is the real Leafs? The reality is almost certainly somewhere between the two. What's funny and what my last post was about was that how some people, and you are absolutely a culprit of this, are choosing to focus only on the negatives of the season. Sure, if the Leafs play like this the rest of the season then they'll crawl into the playoffs and are first round bait. But if the Bruins played like they did for the first 17 games of the season (6-7-4) they wouldn't make the playoffs at all. Focusing on that specific stretch of games seems pretty dumb to me, considering that there are 12 more games that the Bruins have played and which are obviously relevant when considering what looks like a good team. Discussing the current struggles of the Leafs is relevant and interesting hockey discussion. Extrapolating those struggles to the rest of the season and calling the whole team a "paper tiger" despite the other 50% of the season being evidence to the contrary is just wishful thinking.

Fair post + bolded question is practically impossible to answer.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out between the two of us. We have a better defense, we have six players with better ppg than anyone not named Matthews on your team, but we have a crap load of rookies with no incredible pedigree on the roster & we're 7 points back (but with 5 games in hand). You have better goaltending. I have a feeling that things will be incredibly tight.
And then there's the question: will any of all other teams below us in the Division get back in the race? There's so many of them, odds are that some of them is bound to start winning seriously and contend for a spot. Affair à suivre. :)
 

Brownbeard

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Oct 6, 2017
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They're playing like hot garbage and struggling. They've lost their identity.
 
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Slyfox

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Dec 12, 2016
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Nah they’re pretty good, things will come back around it’s just a slump. Depth up front is great.
Is that why Hyman is on the first line and Komarov is on the second line? Spreading the talent thin with grinders doesn't make a team have depth. The leafs should just stack the lines like WPG, TBY instead of thinking they have the talent to run 4 lines.
 

The Grim Reaper

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They have a lot of young players, which equates to a lot of mistakes. The Penguins used to get outshot a lot when Crosby and Malkin were young. Toronto will get better when their young players learn two-way play.
 
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Mugzy97

#StandWitness
Mar 3, 2015
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Is that why Hyman is on the first line and Komarov is on the second line? Spreading the talent thin with grinders doesn't make a team have depth. The leafs should just stack the lines like WPG, TBY instead of thinking they have the talent to run 4 lines.
Are you saying they aren’t NHL caliber? Because IMO they have about 15 NHL caliber forwards
 

MapleLeafistan

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Oct 5, 2017
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Leafs fans who started watching the team after 2005 remind me of Vietnam war veterans. A firecracker goes off, and they start having flashbacks to the dark decade.

Relax...this is the Leafs annual Christmas sucking week. They've been doing this as far back as 1998. They either always loose a string of games before Christmas or after Christmas.
 
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LeafFever

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Feb 12, 2016
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They just aren't that good. The wheels are starting to come off without Matthews around to carry the load. The so called "depth" (lol) isn't as great as they want you to believe either.

They do have great depth upfront. Are we ready to say Marner/Nylander/Brown aren't good because they aren't scoring right now?
The "Depth" comments were 100% correct. Look who they've had on the 3rd and 4th lines and the overall numbers.
And the Leafs are headed for the playoffs. That's being not good?
 

LeafFever

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Feb 12, 2016
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Is that why Hyman is on the first line and Komarov is on the second line? Spreading the talent thin with grinders doesn't make a team have depth. The leafs should just stack the lines like WPG, TBY instead of thinking they have the talent to run 4 lines.
They clearly do have the talent for 4 lines. not sure what team you are watching.
Hyman being on the first line isn't proof of a lack of depth.
 

BlueBaron

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May 29, 2006
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They do have great depth upfront. Are we ready to say Marner/Nylander/Brown aren't good because they aren't scoring right now?
The "Depth" comments were 100% correct. Look who they've had on the 3rd and 4th lines and the overall numbers.
And the Leafs are headed for the playoffs. That's being not good?
You could point out to him almost none of the Oilers wingers would make our team, but that will not discourage him. This is not a rational discussion for them, it's some sort of bizarre blood feud. It's getting scary.
 

Pierce Hawthorne

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The simple answer is no, they just aren't a good team and should experience a return back to the middle like what might be happening now having lost 3 in a row.



The Leafs shot attempts differential when the game is close is 24th in the league at -59. Shot attempts when they're ahead is 21st in the league at -89, and shot attempts when the game is close is also 24th at -68.


So basically, whenever the game is close or they're ahead they get outplayed. While they do a much better job when they're behind in games.
 

pucky

Registered User
Jan 11, 2011
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Nah they’re pretty good, things will come back around it’s just a slump. Depth up front is great.
Blah, blah....what a surprise....a denial from a Leafs fan. Face it, Leaf fans are the only ones denying it. Every fan from other teams are recognizing the Leafs as pretenders who live and die with Matthews and Andersen's goaltending. They're not very good.
 

pucky

Registered User
Jan 11, 2011
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Leafs fans who started watching the team after 2005 remind me of Vietnam war veterans. A firecracker goes off, and they start having flashbacks to the dark decade.

Relax...this is the Leafs annual Christmas sucking week. They've been doing this as far back as 1998. They either always loose a string of games before Christmas or after Christmas.
Then, they totally collapse in the 2nd half....so, yes, they have been doing that for a while, too. They will barely make the playoffs and will be out in the first round. That's predictable, too.
 

MapleLeafistan

Registered User
Oct 5, 2017
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Victoria, BC
Leafs go on a 6 game winning streak...HF response:
a036a44c51896725a781449715a1d64c.500x233x21.gif


Leafs go on a 3 game losing streak...HF response:
36d63880-b6e3-0132-9a5e-0e01949ad350.gif




Leafs fans and the Maple Leaf forum love the attention...

#CanadasTeam :)
 
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Mugzy97

#StandWitness
Mar 3, 2015
7,207
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Halifax, NS
Blah, blah....what a surprise....a denial from a Leafs fan. Face it, Leaf fans are the only ones denying it. Every fan from other teams are recognizing the Leafs as pretenders who live and die with Matthews and Andersen's goaltending. They're not very good.
Nah they’re pretty good just in a slump.

When Matthews is out or Andersen is struggling, it is really transparent how average that team is.
lol take the 1C and 1G off of any team, most fall to below average. So you think they are an above average team?
 
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Menzinger

Kessel4LadyByng
Apr 24, 2014
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I think fans of every other team in the League are fairly objective about their teams - of course, they might wear blinders at times but I think there's a distinct difference when it comes to Leaf fans - in sheer numbers, they are probably blind and wear the rosy coloured goggles more than fans of other teams.

You can't reason with them AT ALL. One fan said they are 3rd or 4th in shots against? Someone should check out how many times they give up 40 shots or near-40 shots against. It seems to be quite often. They also choke more often than other teams, it seems - meaning losing games in later stages of a game. Their team defence totally collapses so if Andersen is not thought of as a top goaltender, I think he probably has to deal with good scoring chances more often than not. Teams that are in slumps love playing the Leafs because it means an opportunity to end that slump. They are collapsing early this season as they usually choke with only 1/4 left but to do it before the break is a bit early for them.

I think they will continue to falter and it will be a challenge to even make the playoffs. Several teams neck and neck with them should pass them soon. When Matthews is out or Andersen is struggling, it is really transparent how average that team is.

The idea that leafs fans are unique in any way (or more biased) is simply absurd. There just like any other group of fans.
 

pucky

Registered User
Jan 11, 2011
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Nah they’re pretty good just in a slump.
lol take the 1C and 1G off of any team, most fall to below average. So you think they are an above average team?
No, not long-term. But, with Matthews, he seemed to be a bit of a spark plug when he's able to play. But, even Washington with Ovechkin has been beaten in the playoffs. Even with Matthews, I don't expect them to win a round if they make it.

The idea that leafs fans are unique in any way (or more biased) is simply absurd. There just like any other group of fans.
'They're?' If you say so. I think there's a case for uniqueness but in a bad way. It could be that they have more fans so there is a more identifiable expression (i.e. they make more noise and react with more anger with criticism) but that's going off topic.
 

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