Are the Leafs really "struggling" or do they just get outshot because they always have the lead?

[MapleLeafs9]

Thread title.

I mean, it's pretty common knowledge that when a team has the lead in hockey, they usually have the tendency to sit back and defend, and the team that's trailing always presses hard for a goal unless their legs just aren't going at all that night.

The consensus here on the main boards seems to be that the Leafs aren't that good and are eventually going to get what's coming to them because they always seemingly get outshot, but I believe it's just because we're actually a super good team that always manages to get leads and either grow them or defend until the game is over.

The Leafs are 12-0-0 when leading in the 3rd period.

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[Dustin]

Thread title.

I mean, it's pretty common knowledge that when a team has the lead in hockey, they usually have the tendency to sit back and defend, and the team that's trailing always presses hard for a goal unless their legs just aren't going at all that night.

The consensus here on the main boards seems to be that the Leafs aren't that good and are eventually going to get what's coming to them because they always seemingly get outshot, but I believe it's just because we're actually a super good team that always manages to get leads and either grow them or defend until the game is over.

The Leafs are 12-0-0 when leading in the 3rd period.

All they are doing is exactly what Babcock has stated so many times but seems to go over everyone's head. Show up at game start time and you'll win most of your games. Even if you start to slip in the 2nd or 3rd, coming back from any lead in this league is hard and if you are the team that scores first chances are you are winning that game.

I certainly don't think we should be setting up our chairs for the parade just yet. Still sloppy on team defence. Would be nice to see what this team looks like with everyone playing good for a change instead of one line here and there. Leafs have a bad tendency still to hand over the puck in the defensive zone with even a small amount of pressure.

I guess all of this matters if you expected Toronto to be the best team in the league this year, but we finished 8th in our conference last year. I was looking for a 6th or 5th place this year so I am pretty happy with the outcome so far. Still a lot of learning to do for a team with such a young core of players.

 

[Semantics]

The Leafs are by far the best team in the NHL at generating high danger shots as a fraction of their total shots for. They don't shoot the puck from the perimeter often, and they don't shoot it from the point often. So their shot totals are a bit misleading.

This is much different from the Randy Carlyle years when they would shoot from everywhere and still get outshot. That's what a lot of coaches encourage too, which you can tell from "get pucks on net" being a standard cliche.

You look at someone like Kadri as a good example. A couple of years ago every time he had possession of the puck in the offensive zone with nobody open he'd fire the puck on net with no screen. And he has a muffin of a shot, so those were a complete waste. Now though, he'll almost always choose to delay and wait for a trailer, or cycle the puck if there's no option.

They have the highest shooting percentage in the NHL and it's not just luck, it's because most of their shots are high percentage ones.

 

[KlefDown]

That’s not how hockey works

 

[weems]

Leafs fan who doesnt really know what to make of our team.

Record is great.
Advanced numbers are decent.
Watching many of their games I want to throw up in my mouth with the overall team play.

 

[PinkFly]

We are contenders. 4th in the standings, 4th in goal differential and 3rd in wins.

 

[Critical13]

The Leafs are by far the best team in the NHL at generating high danger shots as a fraction of their total shots for. They don't shoot the puck from the perimeter often, and they don't shoot it from the point often. So their shot totals are a bit misleading.

This is much different from the Randy Carlyle years when they would shoot from everywhere and still get outshot. That's what a lot of coaches encourage too, which you can tell from "get pucks on net" being a standard cliche.

You look at someone like Kadri as a good example. A couple of years ago every time he had possession of the puck in the offensive zone with nobody open he'd fire the puck on net with no screen. And he has a muffin of a shot, so those were a complete waste. Now though, he'll almost always choose to delay and wait for a trailer, or cycle the puck if there's no option.

They have the highest shooting percentage in the NHL and it's not just luck, it's because most of their shots are high percentage ones.

This is really the best answer. I watch the games and sometimes it feels like we are being bombarded, but most the shots are awful, from weird angles, etc. The Leafs don't take those shots and maybe they should, but they create so many high quality shots.

 

[firstemperor]

The Leafs are by far the best team in the NHL at generating high danger shots as a fraction of their total shots for. They don't shoot the puck from the perimeter often, and they don't shoot it from the point often. So their shot totals are a bit misleading.

This is much different from the Randy Carlyle years when they would shoot from everywhere and still get outshot. That's what a lot of coaches encourage too, which you can tell from "get pucks on net" being a standard cliche.

You look at someone like Kadri as a good example. A couple of years ago every time he had possession of the puck in the offensive zone with nobody open he'd fire the puck on net with no screen. And he has a muffin of a shot, so those were a complete waste. Now though, he'll almost always choose to delay and wait for a trailer, or cycle the puck if there's no option.

They have the highest shooting percentage in the NHL and it's not just luck, it's because most of their shots are high percentage ones.

Leafs were #1 in xGF/60 to start tonight, top 3 in HD scoring chances. Their success is clearly sustainable, particularly because their GA/G now puts them in the bottom 10, most of that due to our system tightening up completely. The question isn't really if we're a good team though, it's more of "how good"?

Any type of corsi model is starting to get out dated, to some degree (though still important). As Gretzky said today, you need to be a high-octane offensive team to win in today's brand of game, that doesn't happen by firing low % shot's at the net.

I'm not a huge fan of the Leafs sitting back on leads (particularly their D won't skate past center ice when protecting a lead), and the dump and chase, defensive brand of hockey. But that's getting us wins right now. The only question I have, now, isn't whether the Leafs are a good team but whether they can clean up their overall play to put themselves into clear contention. As of now, I've always treated them more as a darkhorse contender going back into the offseason. Even factoring in parity, Tampa is the only team to me that is a clear, definitive cup contender.

 

[Mickey Marner]

All situations to date.
HDCF 54.36 (3rd)
MDCF 51.4 (10th)
LDCF 44.31 (30th)

 

[naruto]

That's what I was thinking too! Ppl making a big deal out of the Leafs getting outshot but no team with the lead is gonna keep pushing the pace for the whole game. That's just dumb. If Leafs didn't get out to so many leads, they wouldn't get outshot bc they would be pouring it on. No need to pour it on when your already leading!

 

[aufheben]

Leading - 36.14 SA/60
Tied - 34.7 SA/60

Idk why everyone is talking about their shot generation when you asked about their prevention. Score-adjusted stats are available although I doubt it would make their shot rates look significantly better.

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

We can all look at Edmonton, Ottawa, Calgary.. all these teams that were good last year, kind of built something new and now the expectations are high. It's always a big challenge to sustain it, and these teams aren't exactly shining in the standings. All of them have been trying to find their game and find that success they know they're capable of.

We tend to forget that Toronto is actually in that group. Record? 20-10-1

This is one of those times when i don't put much stock on how the team is actually playing. All that matters is they're winning games. They're creating a winning culture for themselves that is going past 1 season - that's not easy to do.

They will get better as the season goes on and unlike the other teams, they don't have to stress that much about where they are in the standings. They can just focus on their game and getting better without gripping their sticks too tight.

 

[TDK67]

FWIW, Moneypuck's "power ranking" system which combines several "advanced stats" (including shot attempt shares) has the Leafs as #8 in the league right now. To me that says that simple shot attempts don't tell the whole story and the team is doing something right in other metrics (like HDCF) to be ranked that high despite very poor CA numbers. That said...

• Could the team be playing better? Yes.
• Should they be allowing fewer shots? Yes.
• Will they fall apart and be a lottery team due to their high volume of shots against? Probably not. They'll still be able to outscore their problems most nights.
• Will they fall out of the Top 5 in the league and be more in the Top 10 range if they keep playing like this? Probably. Their goaltending is pretty unsustainable recently and if they don't clean up the shots against, then it will end up knocking them down a bit when Andersen becomes more human again.

 

[Nalens Oga]

Mike Babcock just gets the team to sit back on leads a lot imo. It's why they lost so many games last year when they had the lead after the first period or two, they got better at defending them I guess but he still gets the team to sit back far too much. He's a conservative coach. Just count how the forecheckers go into the zone in the third period when they have the lead.

They don't have much in terms of shot suppression from the dmen either and Matthews/Kadri are good but Bozak/Moore or whoever gets played on the 4th will get hemmed in and aren't good at getting it out.

It's going to cost the team btw, Babcock had friggin Team Canada sitting back and playing defensive hockey at times when he shouldn't have it was ridiculous and it made the games closer than they needed to be.

 

[Martin Skoula]

All situations to date.
HDCF 54.36 (3rd)
MDCF 51.4 (10th)
LDCF 44.31 (30th)

I'm going to guess that this is part of the puck management emphasis Babcock talks about. I wouldn't be surprised if the average low-danger shot was close to net negative for the team taking it. It's counter-intuitive, but a low-danger shot has the highest odds of resulting in a change of possession.

 

[nobody]

When your team is well equipped to play run and gun while your coach wants to turn you into the early 2000s Devils. Leafs team defense as a whole is still a work in progress but Babcock doesn't help the cause. Most successful teams play to their strengths, but Babcock believes in forcing square pegs into round holes.

The man has his own philosophies and he's trying to mould the team and players into what he wants them to be. I don't think any other coach in the league has the balls or the brains or the freedom to pull the shit Babs does.

He has a solid list of things building that thoroughly piss off the fanbase.
- Zach Hyman stapled to top line with Matthews
- Marner/ Nylander alternating 4th line duties where they play 10 minutes a night, while Zach Hyman and Leo Komarov lead team in ice time.
- JVR/ Bozak who deserve to be stapled on the 4th line, never get demoted in the lineup even with their exceptionally shitty defensive play
- Roman Polak in the lineup
- Josh Leivo/ Connor Carrick/ Nikita Soshnikov in the press box when they're all better options than Polak/ Martin/ Moore

The fact that the Leafs look so bad in so many games and yet still have 20 wins boggles my mind. Babcock loves to f*** with anything good that happens in the lineup. Half the times it feels like he's putting the team behind the 8-ball just so he can teach them a lesson.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I posted this on the Leafs board but yeah this is how we've done since our game against the Devils on October the 11th. Very disappointing stuff for a team with the talent that we have. We should be closer to top 5 than middle of the pack in xgf% for example. A team with this talent should absolutely not be a bubble team. fortunately I think we have time to turn it around. To do this we have to start playing to our strengths like we did at the start of the year

 

[lebdafor norris]

Leafs are currently 5th in the league in 5 vs 5 high danger chances for and 10th in the league in 5 vs 5 high danger chances against. For comparison, the Carlyle team that miraculously went to the playoffs while constantly being outshot was 26th in the league in 5 vs 5 high danger chances for and 22nd in the league in 5 vs 5 high danger chances against.

 

[snipes]

I posted this on the Leafs board but yeah this is how we've done since our game against the Devils on October the 11th. Very disappointing stuff for a team with the talent that we have. We should be closer to top 5 than middle of the pack in xgf% for example. A team with this talent should absolutely not be a bubble team. fortunately I think we have time to turn it around. To do this we have to start playing to our strengths like we did at the start of the year

Good, honest analysis. One of the better posters on HF imo.

As a team, the Leafs are deep and likely the future powerhouse of the East. Even though I'll never say that to buddies in person who are Leafs fans.

 

[KCC]

Every time I watch this team, it seems like they're giving up 40+ shots a night. Good offense and good goaltending has really covered their mistakes. Just like last year. But they have a lot of talent and can roll 4 lines.

 

[BruinLVGA]

FWIW, Moneypuck's "power ranking" system which combines several "advanced stats" (including shot attempt shares) has the Leafs as #8 in the league right now. To me that says that simple shot attempts don't tell the whole story and the team is doing something right in other metrics (like HDCF) to be ranked that high despite very poor CA numbers. That said...

• Could the team be playing better? Yes.
• Should they be allowing fewer shots? Yes.
• Will they fall apart and be a lottery team due to their high volume of shots against? Probably not. They'll still be able to outscore their problems most nights.
• Will they fall out of the Top 5 in the league and be more in the Top 10 range if they keep playing like this? Probably. Their goaltending is pretty unsustainable recently and if they don't clean up the shots against, then it will end up knocking them down a bit when Andersen becomes more human again.

I just checked the link and the Leafs are at #12 (the Bruins at #10, lol... Also Carolina 5th?).

Andersen is 6th overall in sv% for goalies with at least 20 games (2nd best in the Eastern Conference), that's one of the major reasons why the Leafs are doing what they're doing.

 

[Aladyyn]

That’s not how hockey works

It actually is how hockey works. It's why we adjust stats for score state.

 

[MikeBabcock]

We prefer high percentage scoring chances to muffins from the point; it's really that simple. We out chance almost every team we play despite being outshot.

 

[Torontonian]

They are learning how to play with the lead and more importantly how to win with the lead, Last year we did the same thing expect we kept blowing the lead, this year not so much as we are 12-0 after leading two periods - just like how every good team is. It's not as clean as how an elite team like St Louis does it or how Tampa bay does it, but there still learning in year 3? of our rebuild.

 

[Pookie]

It actually is how hockey works. It's why we adjust stats for score state.

Actually, we adjust stats for score because when we don't the theory that more shots = wins doesn't hold up.

If it did, the team trailing would tie the game up more often than not.

Last night is a great example of the fallacy of score adjustments not being based in the reality of the game.

The Leafs score at :34 seconds of the 1st period. They win 1-0

For the remainder of the game, 59:26 of hockey, every shot they take is weighted as more significant than the shots the Oilers take.

This is dumb.