Are the Leafs Closer to End of Rebuild than we Think?

[Menzinger]

Although I'm certainly all for patience - if it takes the leafs another 4 years to even be in playoff contention, it means that Hunters drafting has been disastrous.

 

[Daisy Jane]

Although I'm certainly all for patience - if it takes the leafs another 4 years to even be in playoff contention, it means that Hunters drafting has been disastrous.

in what sense?
like actually MAKING it - or just being competitive but we miss by like several points?

because neither = disastrous drafting to me in that regard.

 

[Menzinger]

in what sense?
like actually MAKING it - or just being competitive but we miss by like several points?

because neither = disastrous drafting to me in that regard.

Four years from now likely means that many of the 2015 and maybe 2016 draft selections will have underwhelmed since they will all be in the 22-23 age range. An age where they'd be expected to start performing.

I have every confidence in the world that Hunter and his scouts will do well - but there's nothing wrong with having expectations.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Q: Are the Leafs Closer to End of Rebuild than we Think?
A: No.

/close thread.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Although I'm certainly all for patience - if it takes the leafs another 4 years to even be in playoff contention, it means that Hunters drafting has been disastrous.

Hunter won't draft bad! He needs goalies with late picks. I'm curious to see how he knows goalie talent. Yeah, we need a #1 goalie,defenseman and center. That takes time to draft.

 

[Ovate]

The Leafs aren't close to the end of the rebuild, but they are close to the midpoint.

I believe this year will be the lowest we finish, and from then on we'll be on the upswing. With Marner, Nylander, and potentially a big FA signing, we're going to do well enough not to finish with a top 5 pick. We'll probably still sell impending UFAs (Hunwick and Winnik) at the deadline, but it won't be a mass sell off of 5+ like this year.

 

[ACC1224]

They're certainly closer to the end then they are the beginning.

 

[Daisy Jane]

Four years from now likely means that many of the 2015 and maybe 2016 draft selections will have underwhelmed since they will all be in the 22-23 age range. An age where they'd be expected to start performing.

I have every confidence in the world that Hunter and his scouts will do well - but there's nothing wrong with having expectations.

but you didn't answer my question

like. what are you pertaining "competitive" to be.

like. there's

You push for the playoffs, - the team doesn't drop off the 2nd half but they just can't push against the playoff barrier. but you know they are close. - that doesn't necessarily mean they have underwhelmed.


or.

They''ve made the playoffs consistently, but they can't get past round two-three for reasons that doesn't have to do with drafting so to speak.


because listening to hunter i think he's pushing for more of the first - than the second. in his "it will be competitive in the next 3-5 years

 

[Gallagbi]

Daisy - Playoff contention is the first. A team is "contending for a playoff spot."

Note - not the current leafs

 

[613Leafer]

Although I'm certainly all for patience - if it takes the leafs another 4 years to even be in playoff contention, it means that Hunters drafting has been disastrous.

Well Hunter has only been here for one draft, and even good drafting/development teams generally take 3-4+ years to develop NHLers out of non 1st round picks. So even if guys like Timashov, Nielsen, etc will eventually be good NHLers, they're probably 4 years away from starting to do that.

In saying that, Rielly is poised for a big breakout season once they start giving him PP time, and guys like Nylander, Marner, Brown, Leivo, Valiev, Percy, Harrington, Gauthier, etc if theyre to be NHLers should be on the team within the next ~2-3 years, several of them likely by next year.

This team has a decent goal differential, decent goals against / defensive stats. Infuse a bit of skill into this lineup (Nylander/Marner), and we'll likely start taking some strides forward. Next year is a wildcard, but I think the year after that (2017-2018) I would project that we should be fighting hard for a playoff spot by then, maybe earlier if our young guys have great rookie seasons and/or we sign Stamkos. Not to mention our 2016 1st round pick has a chance to be an impact piece within a couple of years as well, depending on who we get.

 

[dirk41]

Playoff contention is the first. They're contending for a playoff spot.

I assume this is sarcasm. But if not. . . .

If the Leafs are contending for a playoff spot, so is every other team except maybe Columbus. The Leafs are 11 points back and need to leapfrog seven teams. They are not competing for ****.

 

[Gallagbi]

I assume this is sarcasm. But if not. . . .

If the Leafs are contending for a playoff spot, so is every other team except maybe Columbus. The Leafs are 11 points back and need to leapfrog seven teams. They are not competing for ****.

It's in regards to the post and discussion above mine of what is "playoff contention" and what are expectations 4 years from now.

 

[Jerkini]

Lots of what-ifs.. If the Leafs draft an elite player this year (Matthews, Laine, Puljujarvi). If the leafs sign Stamkos. If the Leafs receive better-than-average goaltending. If Marner OR Nylander end up being genuine. Any one of those things not coming true extends the rebuild process. I'm actually really excited about this off-season.

 

[GoonieFace]

Playoff contention is the first. They're contending for a playoff spot.

If by playoff spot you mean lottery pick, than you are correct. They are not even close to being a playoff contending team

 

[ITM]

"Are the Leafs Closer to [the] End of [the] Rebuild than we Think?"

I don't know how any Leafs fans, on a Leafs forum can pose the question in discussion given the last couple of years of change and repeated announced intention requiring time and patience.

Measure the likelihood of a "nearly finished" rebuild with those timelines of championship organizations from their definable point of departure from one contending team through their journey until their next contending team.

Detroit for all intents and purposes began in 1984 and required Yzerman and a former championship architect (J.Devallano) to link time, patience and effort until the mid-nineties with a HOF coach and once in a franchise's golden draft in the late eighties to do it.

We're not involved in an abbreviated rebuild or "retool" no matter who states it.

What our collective apprehension should be mindful and respectful of is the journey "taking as long as it takes". How. Many.Times.Doesthishavetoberepeated!?

And if people think it's going to take 2-3 years to do it. Or 4 years...You're in for a very frustrating near future. This club needs to appear as though it is improving before contention is a reliable hope. Then this club in all likelihood needs to make a Conference Final to lose in. Followed by a Cup Finals to lose in. And all of it, typical, required reading for championship teams learning what it takes to beat other contending teams, recent championship teams and any other manner of team more aptly identified as fluke, overachiever or mismanaged one-time, one-round, never was going to win replica of what we have been.

Can we please cap the self-flagellation at 600 posts?

 

[ULF_55]

Standings|Team|Games|Wins|Losses|OTL|Points|PPG
1|*Washington|45|34|8|3|71|1.58
2|*Chicago|48|31|13|4|66|1.38
3|*Dallas|46|29|12|5|63|1.37
5|*Los Angeles|44|28|13|3|59|1.34
4|*St. Louis|49|27|15|7|61|1.24
6|*Florida|46|26|15|5|57|1.24
7|*Detroit|45|23|14|8|54|1.20
8|*NY Islanders|45|24|15|6|54|1.20
9|*NY Rangers|45|24|16|5|53|1.18
12|*Boston|44|23|16|5|51|1.16
10|*Minnesota|45|22|15|8|52|1.16
11|*Tampa Bay|45|24|17|4|52|1.16
20|*Philadelphia|43|20|15|8|48|1.12
15|*San Jose|44|23|18|3|49|1.11
16|*Arizona|45|22|18|5|49|1.09
17|*Pittsburgh|45|21|17|7|49|1.09
13|*Montréal|46|23|19|4|50|1.09
14|*Ottawa|46|22|18|6|50|1.09
21|*Nashville|45|20|17|8|48|1.07
18|*New Jersey|46|22|19|5|49|1.07
22|*Vancouver|46|19|17|10|48|1.04
19|*Colorado|47|23|21|3|49|1.04
24|*Anaheim|44|19|18|7|45|1.02
23|*Carolina|47|20|19|8|48|1.02
26|*Calgary|43|20|20|3|43|1.00
25|*Winnipeg|46|21|22|3|45|0.98
27|*Edmonton|47|19|23|5|43|0.91
28|*Buffalo|46|19|23|4|42|0.91
29|* Toronto |43|16|20|7|39|0.91
30|*Columbus|46|17|25|4|38|0.83

 

[Gallagbi]

If by playoff spot you mean lottery pick, than you are correct. They are not even close to being a playoff contending team

As noted above, that response is in relations to a discussion about future contention and what some terms actually mean.

 

[Daisy Jane]

Daisy - Playoff contention is the first. A team is "contending for a playoff spot."

Note - not the current leafs

ah. okay, Eazy

 

[Swervin81]

We're still 3 years away from a playoff contender and 5 years away from cup contending in a realistic world IMO. If everyone hits the ground running and everything goes right, then we're still 2 years from playoff contention and 3-4 away from cup contention.

It's a long process, folks. Don't rush it.

 

[Drew75]

We're still 3 years away from a playoff contender and 5 years away from cup contending in a realistic world IMO. If everyone hits the ground running and everything goes right, then we're still 2 years from playoff contention and 3-4 away from cup contention.

It's a long process, folks. Don't rush it.

IMHO - I think this is the last year of finishing towards the bottom of the standings. I think that we will be pushing for a playoff spot as soon as next year, with the year after as a more realistic timeline.

From there, it will be another 2-3 years before we are in the perennial contention conversation - depending how well kids like Nylander & Marner develop and adjust to the NHL.

After this coming draft, we will have a top 5 prospect pool, with a good number of kids ready to graduate over the next 2 years. When you add good talent (Nylander, Marner, Brown, Leivo, etc) to the structure and system that Babs has put in place, it will result in a continuous upswing in the standings.

Essentially, the strong foundation for the house will be laid as of July 1st 2016, from then it's a matter of building the damn thing.

 

[Tak7]

IMHO - I think this is the last year of finishing towards the bottom of the standings. I think that we will be pushing for a playoff spot as soon as next year, with the year after as a more realistic timeline.

From there, it will be another 2-3 years before we are in the perennial contention conversation - depending how well kids like Nylander & Marner develop and adjust to the NHL.


Essentially, the strong foundation for the house will be laid as of July 1st 2016, from then it's a matter of building the damn thing.

I don't mean to pick on you specifically, because there's a lot of people that share a similar opinion to yours. That this is the last year of bottoming out / pushing for playoffs / 2-3 years from contending.

I don't think people actually understand when a rebuild is "done". It's not "done" when start challenging for the playoffs.

It's DONE when you have a solid core in place that is, at least on paper, capable of attaining sustainable long term success.

That means having a #1 goaltender, a top pairing Dman, and elite players in the key forward positions.

The Leafs don't have *any* of those pieces right now. They have players in their system they hope can turn into those pieces, but to suggest that in the next 2-3 years they will magically turn into one, is insane - especially for the lads who have been drafted the past 2 years. Simply having those players doesn't mean anything - see the Oilers of Edmonton.
Points I want to make are these:

1) We aren't anywhere close to being done in this rebuild, and those thinking we are, just aren't in touch with reality.


2) This isn't the last year this team bottoms out

 

[Drew75]

I don't mean to pick on you specifically, because there's a lot of people that share a similar opinion to yours. That this is the last year of bottoming out / pushing for playoffs / 2-3 years from contending.

I don't think people actually understand when a rebuild is "done". It's not "done" when start challenging for the playoffs.

It's DONE when you have a solid core in place that is, at least on paper, capable of attaining sustainable long term success.

That means having a #1 goaltender, a top pairing Dman, and elite players in the key forward positions.

The Leafs don't have *any* of those pieces right now. They have players in their system they hope can turn into those pieces, but to suggest that in the next 2-3 years they will magically turn into one, is insane - especially for the lads who have been drafted the past 2 years. Simply having those players doesn't mean anything - see the Oilers of Edmonton.
Points I want to make are these:

1) We aren't anywhere close to being done in this rebuild, and those thinking we are, just aren't in touch with reality.


2) This isn't the last year this team bottoms out

I get your point ... but disagree (somewhat).

From the following, it is my belief that we will be able to build a very good long term core:

Forwards:

Key, Elite Talent:
Nylander, Marner, Potentially 2016 pick

Strong Supporting Talent [(?) = maybe - if not traded]:
Kadri (?), JVR (?), Brown, Leivo, Timashov, Dzierkals, Johnson, Kapanen

Defense:

Key, Elite Talent:
Reilly, Potentially 2016 pick

Strong Supporting Talent:
Gardiner (?), Dermott, Loov, Valiev

Goaltender:

TBD - it's a strange position, and while I agree we need one, it could either end up being something we already have (Bernier / Reimer / Bibeau / Sparks), something we draft in the next year or two, or even a UFA signing / trade.

Now - I know that not all of the above listed prospects will necessarily pan out, but I believe that a high percentage of the elite ones will (Nylander, Marner, and Reilly are 'bluechip' for reason), while the 'strong support' guys are only some of what we have in the system. As much as some won't pan out, it's just as likely that others will exceed expectations (eg: Neilson).

So - this year the team is playing very well and structured but can't score (lack of talent). Add Nylander and maybe Brown / Leivo next year, all of a sudden we can score better. I don't expect Nylander to tear it up in his first year, but I do expect him to be a serious upgrade to guys like Mathias, as well as making whomever he plays with better. Add Marner, Kapanen, etc over the next 2-3 years and I just don't see (with Babcock coaching) this team continuing to reside at the bottom of the standings.

Not all of our kids will pan out - which is why we have more good prospects than there is space on the roster. There will also be trades and other factors (it's never a team of solely drafted players).

 

[sxvnert]

We're still 3 years away from a playoff contender and 5 years away from cup contending in a realistic world IMO. If everyone hits the ground running and everything goes right, then we're still 2 years from playoff contention and 3-4 away from cup contention.

It's a long process, folks. Don't rush it.

At least, if all goes well.

 

[X66]

We're still 3 years away from a playoff contender and 5 years away from cup contending in a realistic world IMO. If everyone hits the ground running and everything goes right, then we're still 2 years from playoff contention and 3-4 away from cup contention.

It's a long process, folks. Don't rush it.

Playoff contender or a perennial playoff team?

On the bright side is, each year gets more exciting. The leafs could take a step back in the standings next year if they implement a lot more kids(hard to be worse than 2nd last), but the team should be more entertaining.

No year will be as dull as this year IMHO.

 

[BlueBaron]

I find it very curious that anyone can pull any kind of number out of the air Less than a year after the rebuild started. Too many variable.

What Free agents will we sign ? No one knows

Which and how many of our prospects will meet expectations ? No one knows

How many miracle picks will Hunter make ? No one knows

Who will suffer career ending injuries ? No one knows

What wicked trades will we make where we fleece the other team ? No one knows.

What trade will we make that back fire ? No one knows.

When will the rebuild be over ? Think you guys can see the pattern but just in case....NO ONE KNOWS.