Are the Leafs Closer to End of Rebuild than we Think?

[Daisy Jane]

I get your point ... but disagree (somewhat).

From the following, it is my belief that we will be able to build a very good long term core:

Forwards:

Key, Elite Talent:
Nylander, Marner, Potentially 2016 pick

Strong Supporting Talent [(?) = maybe - if not traded]:
Kadri (?), JVR (?), Brown, Leivo, Timashov, Dzierkals, Johnson, Kapanen

Defense:

Key, Elite Talent:
Reilly, Potentially 2016 pick

Strong Supporting Talent:
Gardiner (?), Dermott, Loov, Valiev

Goaltender:

TBD - it's a strange position, and while I agree we need one, it could either end up being something we already have (Bernier / Reimer / Bibeau / Sparks), something we draft in the next year or two, or even a UFA signing / trade.

Now - I know that not all of the above listed prospects will necessarily pan out, but I believe that a high percentage of the elite ones will (Nylander, Marner, and Reilly are 'bluechip' for reason), while the 'strong support' guys are only some of what we have in the system. As much as some won't pan out, it's just as likely that others will exceed expectations (eg: Neilson).

So - this year the team is playing very well and structured but can't score (lack of talent). Add Nylander and maybe Brown / Leivo next year, all of a sudden we can score better. I don't expect Nylander to tear it up in his first year, but I do expect him to be a serious upgrade to guys like Mathias, as well as making whomever he plays with better. Add Marner, Kapanen, etc over the next 2-3 years and I just don't see (with Babcock coaching) this team continuing to reside at the bottom of the standings.

Not all of our kids will pan out - which is why we have more good prospects than there is space on the roster. There will also be trades and other factors (it's never a team of solely drafted players).

that is a lot of rookies, who have to adjust to playing in the NHL for 82 games, adjust to babcock, adjust to the grind.

then there's the sophomore slump that aa good chunk could have.

 

[ACC1224]

I find it very curious that anyone can pull any kind of number out of the air Less than a year after the rebuild started. Too many variable.

What Free agents will we sign ? No one knows

Which and how many of our prospects will meet expectations ? No one knows

How many miracle picks will Hunter make ? No one knows

Who will suffer career ending injuries ? No one knows

What wicked trades will we make where we fleece the other team ? No one knows.

What trade will we make that back fire ? No one knows.

When will the rebuild be over ? Think you guys can see the pattern but just in case....NO ONE KNOWS.

Agreed you can't pinned down an end date, too many variables.
I do believe they've been at it for more than "less than a year".

 

[BlueBaron]

Agreed you can't pinned down an end date, too many variables.
I do believe they've been at it for more than "less than a year".

It's only been official less than a year. Last deadline was the first time we were getting picks for players at the deadline since Burkes early days. I suppose it is subjective but I seem to recall that after Nonis was fired Shanny did his pitch to the board that it had to be a complete tear down. I would say the rebuild started last deadline.

 

[Drew75]

that is a lot of rookies, who have to adjust to playing in the NHL for 82 games, adjust to babcock, adjust to the grind.

then there's the sophomore slump that aa good chunk could have.

I'm not thinking that we'll make the playoffs next year, only that we likely won't end up bottom 5. I was referring to an influx of talent over the next 2-3 years - talent being the main thing keeping us from being a playoff team now.

If I had to project, I would say (based on absolutely nothing more than my little 'ol opinion):

• Next year ('16/'17) finish in the 18-25 range
• Year after - ('17/'18) squeak into the playoffs (6-8 in the conference range)
• Year after - ('18/'19) Make the playoffs easily (4-6 in the conference range) and potentially make some noise
• Year after - ('19/'20) Contend

 

[sxvnert]

Cheering for wins and a top five pick

 

[Ricky Bobby]

We have a lot of youngsters setting to join the team next year and their will be a lot of growing pains.

Out of the current bottom 5 teams in the Blue Jackets, Leafs, Sabres, Oilers, Flames I put us and the Blue Jackets as having the least chance to jump up the standing significantly next year.

Sabres & Oilers have been absolutely decimated by key injuries this year and have their top end youth further ahead of us.

Flames also have youth further ahead of us and for all the issues we talk about with our goaltending, the Flames goaltending has been worse.

Maybe we make it out of the bottom 5 because of parity or hot goaltending or something but I don't see the chance of making it much out of the bottom 5.

 

[Ovate]

We have a lot of youngsters setting to join the team next year and their will be a lot of growing pains.

Out of the current bottom 5 teams in the Blue Jackets, Leafs, Sabres, Oilers, Flames I put us and the Blue Jackets as having the least chance to jump up the standing significantly next year.

Sabres & Oilers have been absolutely decimated by key injuries this year and have their top end youth further ahead of us.

Flames also have youth further ahead of us and for all the issues we talk about with our goaltending, the Flames goaltending has been worse.

Maybe we make it out of the bottom 5 because of parity or hot goaltending or something but I don't see the chance of making it much out of the bottom 5.

Yeah, but what chance to any of those teams have at signing Stamkos?

Also, take a look at what prospects will be joining each team next year. The Sabres have McCabe who will start bottom pairing. Edmonton has Reinhart, maybe? Calgary has nothing of note. Columbus has some good prospects, but whether not top talent, and if Werenski makes the jump it will be bottom pairing.

None of those teams have anything nearly as good as the Nylander/Marner duo we could see boosting the Leafs next year.

 

[BlueBaron]

We have a lot of youngsters setting to join the team next year and their will be a lot of growing pains.

Out of the current bottom 5 teams in the Blue Jackets, Leafs, Sabres, Oilers, Flames I put us and the Blue Jackets as having the least chance to jump up the standing significantly next year.

Sabres & Oilers have been absolutely decimated by key injuries this year and have their top end youth further ahead of us.

Flames also have youth further ahead of us and for all the issues we talk about with our goaltending, the Flames goaltending has been worse.

Maybe we make it out of the bottom 5 because of parity or hot goaltending or something but I don't see the chance of making it much out of the bottom 5.

Babcock recently supported your assertion saying he saw next year might be a further step back due to the infusion of youth. I have to think 3 or 4 Marlies will have a real shot to make the team, and of course we have the Marner wildcard. Hard to say about this years pick , I believe all the top 3 guys can play in the AHL next year but I suppose if we draft first he could make the team too.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Yeah, but what chance to any of those teams have at signing Stamkos?

Also, take a look at what prospects will be joining each team next year. The Sabres have McCabe who will start bottom pairing. Edmonton has Reinhart, maybe? Calgary has nothing of note. Columbus has some good prospects, but whether not top talent, and if Werenski makes the jump it will be bottom pairing.

None of those teams have anything nearly as good as the Nylander/Marner duo we could see boosting the Leafs next year.

If we get Stamkos things change and it's likely enough to take us out of the bottom 5. Counting on Nylander or Marner to make top line type impact is very optimistic. Maybe it happens with 1 but both is highly unlikely and we'll still have a lot of holes throughout our roster.

Sabres will have development from youngsters already on the team like Eichel, Reinhart, etc. Bogosian their # 2 Dman has missed 17 games, another regular Dman in Pysyk has missed 26 games and their clear # 1 in Leihner only recently played his first 2 games.

Oilers will also have development from a host of youngsters as well. Oilers have had McDavid miss 35 games, Eberle miss 13 games, Yakupov miss 22 games and Klefbom miss 18 games.

Sabres and Oilers have been absolutely devastated by key injuries this season.

We've been just as bad as the Oilers and Sabres and that's with us having very good health and their youth that's already on the team has far more room to grow next year than what he have already on our team. As for injuries, Reimer missed a stretch but that's really it so far. JVR was only very recently injured. We haven't had any other notable injuries.

Calgary goaltending really can't be any worse. It makes our goaltending look really good. If they get even decent goaltending they should be better. If they don't they will likely be near the bottom again.

Blue Jackets I expect to be terrible again unless Bobrovsky turns in a Vezina level season.

 

[Doc300c]

Adding a top 4 Def. to Morgan, Jake and Dion makes our D a lot stronger.

Adding a top 5ish first round pick whom could step right in ( some have NHL size and skill already ) instantly adds 2 top players to our lineup along with the additions of promoted players. Its not going to take 5 more years at that rate.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

with all the thread locking that goes on here.
How is it this thread stays open ? ... for 6 weeks.

 

[WilliamNylander]

We are going to have an insane amount of turnover in the next few years. Hard to really predict who sticks and who doesn't.

 

[Wolves]

Anyone see enough of JJ Piccinich? Seems like he has some good numbers but I've only seen one game. What do you guys think?

 

[Doc300c]

Anyone see enough of JJ Piccinich? Seems like he has some good numbers but I've only seen one game. What do you guys think?

He was playing with Marner on the top line for a bit. I'm assuming most of his points came in that span. I do NOT watch him regularly but remember at the beginning of the year he was among the leaders of the OHL while playing with Marner.

 

[Doc300c]

with all the thread locking that goes on here.
How is it this thread stays open ? ... for 6 weeks.

Great topic and lots of good points coming through here for both sides of the argument.

 

[Mess]

Anyone see enough of JJ Piccinich? Seems like he has some good numbers but I've only seen one game. What do you guys think?

PP specialist in 2nd in the league to Dvorak only with pp goals as 15 of his 23 goals have come when he joins Marner- Dvorak- Tkachuk on the PP with 4 forwards and London PP is #1 in the OHL.

 

[Doc300c]

PP specialist in 2nd in the league to Dvorak only with pp goals as 15 of his 23 goals have come when he joins Marner- Dvorak- Tkachuk on the PP with 4 forwards and London PP is #1 in the OHL.

So I suppose when playing with quality line mates he can put up above average points. When playing with average line mates he cant.

 

[Wolves]

Yeah, I figured there had to be a reason he was taken so low. Thanks a lot guys, good info.