Salary Cap: Anybody still crying about Reilly Smith

Jean_Jacket41

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Exactly. When you look at the numbers, it's a huge concern. The money they spent on him is misguided. He's not what he was the first half of his first year here.

For sure he is not. That was 35 goals scorer production. He would have gotten much more than 3.4M if he was that kind of goal scorer.

The last two years, Smith has been a 15-20g/40-50pts scorer and was a huge bargain at 925k and 1.4M.

His 33g-91pts in two years is the reason he's getting paid 3.4M per year. All his comparables are in that range and he would have gotten in that ball park if he went to arbitration. You might not like the deal but that doesn't make him grossly overpaid like you pretend.

We'll see in the next two years if last year was a sophomore slump/team season related slump, if he can improve on his rookie season or if he'll stay a 15-20g/40-50pts scorer. We'll know by then what kind or raise he'll get on his next deal...
 

LSCII

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For sure he is not. That was 35 goals scorer production. He would have gotten much more than 3.4M if he was that kind of goal scorer.

The last two years, Smith has been a 15-20g/40-50pts scorer and was a huge bargain at 925k and 1.4M.

His 33g-91pts in two years is the reason he's getting paid 3.4M per year. All his comparables are in that range and he would have gotten in that ball park if he went to arbitration. You might not like the deal but that doesn't make him grossly overpaid like you pretend.

We'll see in the next two years if last year was a sophomore slump/team season related slump, if he can improve on his rookie season or if he'll stay a 15-20g/40-50pts scorer. We'll know by then what kind or raise he'll get on his next deal...

You seem hung up on whether I agree it's market rate or not. I've already said multiple times that I get why he's being paid what he's getting. I just wouldn't give him that personally, because I don't think he's worth it. When I say he's grossly overpaid, I don't mean in terms of the market. I mean in terms of what I've seen from him as a player and his production when you consider the first half of his first year and everything since then. He's simply not very good, IMO.
 

LouJersey

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Again, you're paying him $3.4 because he had a good 4 month start to his career. The following 10 months of actual hockey have been less productive than that one 4 month block.

2014 play-offs

Smith - 4 goals
Bergeron - 3 goals
Eriksson- 2 goals
Soderberg- 1 goal
Krejci- 0 goals
Marchand- 0 goals
 

LSCII

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2014 play-offs

Smith - 4 goals
Bergeron - 3 goals
Eriksson- 2 goals
Soderberg- 1 goal
Krejci- 0 goals
Marchand- 0 goals

I was waiting for someone to bring this up. Honestly surprised it took this long. :laugh:

Yes, he was relatively productive in the playoffs the first year, especially compared to the rest of the team. I was actually buoyed by that, and hoped it got him rolling again. But after watching him this year, I think the short span of decent productivity in the playoffs mirrors his inconsistent play in the regular season. He puts together short bursts of good productivity surrounded by long stretches of sub par play. It actually exemplifies his glaring inconsistency.
 

PB37

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He puts together short bursts of good productivity surrounded by long stretches of sub par play. It actually exemplifies his glaring inconsistency.

You described just about every 20 goal scorer in the league.
 

LouJersey

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I was waiting for someone to bring this up. Honestly surprised it took this long. :laugh:

Yes, he was relatively productive in the playoffs the first year, especially compared to the rest of the team. I was actually buoyed by that, and hoped it got him rolling again. But after watching him this year, I think the short span of decent productivity in the playoffs mirrors his inconsistent play in the regular season. He puts together short bursts of good productivity surrounded by long stretches of sub par play. It actually exemplifies his glaring inconsistency.

Dude slumped badly in the new year last season 4-16-20 after Jan 1st.

I think he will be a 20 plus 50 plus guy with a looser system.. And 3.4 is nothing, its two years, and he's 24, another GM would without a doubt take him off your hands.
 

Kvartalnov_Fan

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Hurts when context kills your argument, eh?

Marchand has struggled for 2 years now. His numbers are declining, he is taking more team killing penalties and his playoff performance has been non existent.

All while having a far larger cap hit than Smith has to date.

Yet there isn't this mob trying to ship him out of town to anyone who will listen because his cap hit is so "egregious".

Ever consider that Marchand is weighing that line down?

And despite of all the above, he still led the team in goals and had 11 goals more than Smith did.
 

Hali33

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Bruins don't even haggle with Smith, give him at best fair market value for his early extension after a disappointing season.

And yet we are potentially going into this off season opening Hamilton up to offer sheets. This is where we choose to haggle.

What a world.
 

RussellmaniaKW

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Henrik Sedin hasn't had a 20 goal season since 2009/2010.

See how easy it is to cherry pick a stat that doesn't tell you everything there is to know about a player's worth?
 

LSCII

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What does his salary have to do with my opinion on how he played? :shakehead

Exactly. So many people here are quick to justify his money as market value, all while glossing over his sub par play. It's not about the money. It's about him playing terribly for all but the first half of his first season here.
 

RedeyeRocketeer

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There are people in the Lucic thread not applying the same logic to Reilly Smith. One bad season is one bad season. If you're going to use it on one guy, use it on the other please.
 

LSCII

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You described just about every 20 goal scorer in the league.

Sure, which is why you don't go out of your way to lock those types up. They're JAGS. and I'm not convinced that Smith is really a 20 goal per year type. He did it once, and hasn't been close to that since. And even then, his scoring pace the last year and a half is mighty concerning.
 

Kvartalnov_Fan

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363:05 for Bergeron and 380:23 for Marchand. Actually quite a large sample size. A little more than 1/3 of the season for both players without Smith 5 on 5.

Same trend in 13/14.

Bergeron with Smith averaged 3.74 GF/60 (in 710:01 minutes)

Bergeron without Smith averaged 2.07 GF/60 (in 349:05 minutes).

Marchand with Smith averaged 3.46 GF/60 (in 694 minutes)

Marchand without Smith averaged 2.23 GF/60 ( in 404:25 minutes)

Not suggesting he's the straw that stirs the drink or anything (he's not), but there's nothing to indicate Reilly Smith brings down the production of either Marchand or Bergeron. All indications point to him being an effective compliment (assuming I'm looking at these numbers correctly).

I think people need to look at this from another angle...Has playing 2 of the Bruins' best forwards helped to elevate Smith's game? Initially, I'd say yes...Then last season happened.
I do like him with Bergy and Marchy though...they had some good chemistry.
 
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BadBruins

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Go look at his game log. See what he really is. You want to talk totals, but when you put those totals in context, his 20 goal season is actually a negative. He had 18 goals halfway through the season. So to end with only 20 was a huge disappointment. I get why he's being paid what he is, I just don't agree with it because I don't think he's a 20 goal per season guy. He's closer to what we saw last year, and he's been that guy for most of his time here, aside from one 4 month stretch. No matter what you say, nothing changes that fact. He scored 18 goals in his first half season, and has at 15 for the remaining year and a half. That's a huge red flag. Even worse when you factor in the amount of PP toi he got during that time as well.

He actually only had 14 goals through the half way point (41 games).

That 4 month stretch through January was almost exactly 2/3 of the season (53 games). Compressed schedule.

He also had 4 goals in 12 post season appearances at the end of the year, including 3 in the Montreal series.

His 5 on 5 goal scoring numbers are almost identical to the previous season. Where they take a big dip is the special teams. Going from 6 PP goals to 1 PP goal. He only shot 6% on the PP last year. That is generally where you see a players percentage increase. By comparison he was 10-11% 5 on 5 each of the last two seasons with a very large sample size (12 goals in that situation last year, 1 more than 20+ goal scorer Eriksson).

I was looking through the individual 5 on 5 G/60 and he actually ranks solidly in the 30-40 range among RW in the league, depending on on strict you want to sort it (positions are not always accurate either). Expanding beyond just the Bruins and Eriksson/Soderberg/Krejci he also ranks ahead of guys like Giroux, Ryan, Voracek, Sharp etc. There's a tier of about 15 true goal scorers at at the top and a slew of secondary guys just above and below the Smith range. Not suggesting he's better than any of those players, but he's certainly not inept.
 

LSCII

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He actually only had 14 goals through the half way point (41 games).

That 4 month stretch through January was almost exactly 2/3 of the season (53 games). Compressed schedule.

He also had 4 goals in 12 post season appearances at the end of the year, including 3 in the Montreal series.

His 5 on 5 goal scoring numbers are almost identical to the previous season. Where they take a big dip is the special teams. Going from 6 PP goals to 1 PP goal. He only shot 6% on the PP last year. That is generally where you see a players percentage increase. By comparison he was 10-11% 5 on 5 each of the last two seasons with a very large sample size (12 goals in that situation last year, 1 more than 20+ goal scorer Eriksson).

I was looking through the individual 5 on 5 G/60 and he actually ranks solidly in the 30-40 range among RW in the league, depending on on strict you want to sort it (positions are not always accurate either). Expanding beyond just the Bruins and Eriksson/Soderberg/Krejci he also ranks ahead of guys like Giroux, Ryan, Voracek, Sharp etc. There's a tier of about 15 true goal scorers at at the top and a slew of secondary guys just above and below the Smith range. Not suggesting he's better than any of those players, but he's certainly not inept.

He played well in the first 4 months of that year (18 goals) and then went for all of 2 goals in the final 3 months. If you want the specific break down, Lou put it in earlier. It was 4 goals over his last 39 games and 16 over his first 43. Call it what you want, split hairs over the exact numbers, whatever. It doesn't change the fact that he lit it up early and then dropped off a cliff. The one area he showed some life was the playoffs, but he reverted back to cliff diving at the start of this season.

You say he ranks ahead of Voracek, Ryan, Giroux, Sharp, et al. But I think most reasonable people would take any of those guys over him because those guys also do other things. With Smith, if he's not scoring, he's invisible. And he's only been scoring for about half a season here.
 

FROMSHORETOCHARA

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Hard to believe that some people here are still defending the soft, inaccurate, invisible Smith, and by extension the Seguin trade.

In fact I doubt bruins think his 2 yr deal fair in a vacuum. I mean isn't it pretty obvious what they did? They circumvented the cap. They couldn't pay him after first year so they got him to come in by promising a quid pro quo. They overpaid him for years 2 and 3 since they underpaid him... Cough cough....for year 1. So even though he sucked year 2 they kept their word and paid what they promised under table last year. Would b stunned if this not the basic scenario.
 

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