I agree with almost everything you say, but in this case I just can't. He was an overager, and while that certainly doesn't prevent a player from going in the first round, it seems a lot less common now than it was 7-10 years ago. He had decent KHL numbers (although not one point in 14 playoff games) and terrible World Junior numbers. And he doesn't have size that would be attractive enough to make up the difference, as far as I can tell.
I certainly wasn't as surprised to see him fall to the third as some seemed to be.