Post-Game Talk: Another Paverage Game Jets lose 4-1

[Bartho]

Well, I watched the whole game. Some of the Jets looked alright. I really enjoy watching the PBD line. Burmi has looked much better the last few weeks, I like what Dano is showing so far, and Perreault is a beauty.
I wish the Jets could bury the puck more and that Pavelec could keep them out. Oh well, better for the tank I guess. yay?

Has Pavelec ever unequivocally owned up to a bad play or a critical mistake? Did he do it after that 40 yard field goal against St. Louis last year?

Who cares? If he hasn't done it yet, it isn't going to start happening now. Would it change his play if he committed virtual Seppuku for everyone's delight? He'll still be the same old Pavelec we all love (to hate).

Samething goes with wanting Maurice to throw him under the bus. It's not gonna happen.

 

[ellismate]

As I've been saying since Dano joined the Jets, he needs to improve his quickness and conditioning to be a solid NHLer. He'll need to work on that in the off-season and come to came quicker / faster and fitter.

Is dano waiver exempt?

 

[ellismate]

Tank commander pav pulled a big one for us now

 

[Koonta]

We got Leafed. Can we still use that term?

We should use a new term unique to our situation....how bout we got Paveleced?

 

[Hank Chinaski]

This thread went off on a bit of a Pavelec tangent, so I've moved posts to the goaltending thread:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2035905

 

[raideralex99]

Nobody talks about it but the Jets really need a centre who can win face offs ... Wow only 34% against the Flames and 44% against the Canucks who are bad at face offs ... Ouch.

 

[garret9]

Nobody talks about it but the Jets really need a centre who can win face offs ... Wow only 34% against the Flames and 44% against the Canucks who are bad at face offs ... Ouch.

Meh.

FOs are incredibly overrated.

The purpose of FOs is to promote out chancing via starting with the puck. The Jets controlled the puck for about as much as you are going to ever see a team control in those two games.

 

[hurricanedave]

Meh.

FOs are incredibly overrated.

The purpose of FOs is to promote out chancing via starting with the puck. The Jets controlled the puck for about as much as you are going to ever see a team control in those two games.

I'd agree with that sentiment, the leafs have a better FO% than all teams in the top 10 for wins. Heck, they pretty much have the worst team corsi in the league and have a team FO% over 51%.

 

[raideralex99]

Meh.

FOs are incredibly overrated.

The purpose of FOs is to promote out chancing via starting with the puck. The Jets controlled the puck for about as much as you are going to ever see a team control in those two games.

It comes in handy on the PP or PK ... win the draw and you ice the puck or win the draw and shoot on the net.
Maybe if they had a better record on FOs the PP and PK would be better.

 

[Whileee]

Meh.

FOs are incredibly overrated.

The purpose of FOs is to promote out chancing via starting with the puck. The Jets controlled the puck for about as much as you are going to ever see a team control in those two games.

It comes in handy on the PP or PK ... win the draw and you ice the puck or win the draw and shoot on the net.
Maybe if they had a better record on FOs the PP and PK would be better.

PP/SH face-offs are definitely more important than even-strength (about 3 times more likely to generate a goal differential within 20 seconds).

Still, the effect of face-offs over an entire season between the worst and best team is probably not more than a couple of wins a season. I wouldn't doubt that the Jets are bottom of the barrel (face off % plus bad PK plus lots of PK), and might be losing 1-2 wins per year due to poor face-off performance.

For reference.... http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/FaceoffAnalysis12-12.pdf

 

[Channelcat]

Nobody talks about it but the Jets really need a centre who can win face offs ... Wow only 34% against the Flames and 44% against the Canucks who are bad at face offs ... Ouch.

I tend to agree with you. Its a bit of a big deal, regardless of what the micro observers say

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't buy the killer instinct thing.

Goals happen in bunches. Randomness isn't evenly distributed.

But .... if it were? Even randomness. What a concept! That has to be some kind of quantum random. Right?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Give Comrie a game as a reward for suffering through this moose season/ see what he can do. We're seeing what all our young players can do this season

I would second that except he might win it. If Wheeler & Buff have relapses and Scheif gets it too then bring up Comrie. And play him.

 

[garret9]

PP/SH face-offs are definitely more important than even-strength (about 3 times more likely to generate a goal differential within 20 seconds).

Still, the effect of face-offs over an entire season between the worst and best team is probably not more than a couple of wins a season. I wouldn't doubt that the Jets are bottom of the barrel (face off % plus bad PK plus lots of PK), and might be losing 1-2 wins per year due to poor face-off performance.

For reference.... http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/FaceoffAnalysis12-12.pdf

Ya... I did my own work comparing that stuff and got WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYY less impact than those guys did.

I think the best FO guy in the league last year was worth about 3 goals from my checking.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Like communism?

No, Communism was a red star or something like that. This has herring in it so it must be vikings.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The reason I don't want to break up the PBD line is because we're getting a real good look at Dano, who looks to have found some chemistry on that line. Plus Burmi finally seems to be finding his game there.

Both are pretty damn valuable things I'd prefer not to mess with. Not because I care if we win games now. But because this is important player development for the future. And also because management needs to make roster and line decisions for next year. Observing their play now will factor into these decisions.

I would like to see Petan again, though.

Catching up here a bit. Replying to old posts but I agree with this even though I don't want any points in the standings. What we have here with these 3 might still be a little fragile. Leave them together to build their confidence further and cement some good habits. Maybe it is nothing but maybe it pays dividends next year regardless of who they play with later on.

 

[Whileee]

Ya... I did my own work comparing that stuff and got WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYY less impact than those guys did.

I think the best FO guy in the league last year was worth about 3 goals from my checking.

Different data? Different model?

Did your work find that PP/SH face-offs are a lot more important than even-strength?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

We got Leafed. Can we still use that term?

I don't see why not but after last season and parts of this one I think Flamed works quite well.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Nobody talks about it but the Jets really need a centre who can win face offs ... Wow only 34% against the Flames and 44% against the Canucks who are bad at face offs ... Ouch.

And yet ...... we beat the 'Nucks 5-2. Imagine what the score would have been if we had won a few more FOs!

 

[garret9]

Different data? Different model?

Did your work find that PP/SH face-offs are a lot more important than even-strength?

I did more like Gabriel Desjardins did.

More important, yes, and by a large factor, but 1 apple is 100 times bigger than 1/100th of an apple... Doesn't mean it's a lot of food.

I look at it like a micro statistic, similar to zone exits/entries. Having good numbers there is nice, and can explain why a player or team get the results they do... but the whole forest/trees thing... you want good micros for the macros.

Example: I rather have a good Corsi, bad FO guy than the opposite. A guy may help the PK winning a FO, but if that's all he can do, that's only about 7s impact of a large part of the game.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It comes in handy on the PP or PK ... win the draw and you ice the puck or win the draw and shoot on the net.
Maybe if they had a better record on FOs the PP and PK would be better.

No doubt. I'm not sure how much difference it would make in th elong run though. Those PP goals we get that way and the PK goals we give up that way tend to be highly memorable events so tend to be overrated.

 

[Evil Little]

I did more like Gabriel Desjardins did.

More important, yes, and by a large factor, but 1 apple is 100 times bigger than 1/100th of an apple... Doesn't mean it's a lot of food.

I look at it like a micro statistic, similar to zone exits/entries. Having good numbers there is nice, and can explain why a player or team get the results they do... but the whole forest/trees thing... you want good micros for the macros.

Example: I rather have a good Corsi, bad FO guy than the opposite. A guy may help the PK winning a FO, but if that's all he can do, that's only about 7s impact of a large part of the game.

I think we saw a terrific example of this last year: Slater was a league top-5 faceoff taker, and a league bottom-10 forward.

 

[Whileee]

I did more like Gabriel Desjardins did.

More important, yes, and by a large factor, but 1 apple is 100 times bigger than 1/100th of an apple... Doesn't mean it's a lot of food.

I look at it like a micro statistic, similar to zone exits/entries. Having good numbers there is nice, and can explain why a player or team get the results they do... but the whole forest/trees thing... you want good micros for the macros.

Example: I rather have a good Corsi, bad FO guy than the opposite. A guy may help the PK winning a FO, but if that's all he can do, that's only about 7s impact of a large part of the game.

Probably some interdependencies for specific combinations of players, but agree that it is an overrated stat. It just drives coaches and fans crazy when a FO loss leads directly to a key goal. It's a psychological thing.

 

[tbcwpg]

I think people talk about face-offs being important moreso at certain points of the game - they may not impact the game in a major way for 58 minutes, but I'd like to know there's someone on the ice we can rely upon to win when up 1 in the defensive zone with 45 seconds left, or down 1 pushing for a late goal in the o-zone.

 

[Puckatron 3000]

Catching up here a bit. Replying to old posts but I agree with this even though I don't want any points in the standings. What we have here with these 3 might still be a little fragile. Leave them together to build their confidence further and cement some good habits. Maybe it is nothing but maybe it pays dividends next year regardless of who they play with later on.

Cool, glad you agree Mort. If PBD is "a thing", meaning we're not just seeing a blip on the radar, a flash in the pan, but some real fire, then hell yeah I want to stoke those flames.

Normally I'd never advocate for Perreault down on the 3rd line. But imagine what a 3rd line that would be! (for next season)

I look at it like a micro statistic, similar to zone exits/entries. Having good numbers there is nice, and can explain why a player or team get the results they do... but the whole forest/trees thing... you want good micros for the macros.

Example: I rather have a good Corsi, bad FO guy than the opposite. A guy may help the PK winning a FO, but if that's all he can do, that's only about 7s impact of a large part of the game.

That's a great explanation Garret.

There's many examples of interesting stuff you learn from statistical analysis. But to me, the "faceoff effect" being so minor is one of the huge revelations from stats over the eye test. Faceoffs seem so important. I'm more than willing to believe the stats on this, but it's dead set against what my eyes/gut would have told me.