Prospect Info: Annual Detroit Red Wings Prospect Poll - #9

[Gniwder]

Sebrango brings a lot of things to the table in a limited role to start.

Not big enough or strong enough to fight in the NHL, he'd get his ass kicked

Sebrango needs to beef up if he wants to play in the NHL, that was very obvious last preseason.

 

[Hen Kolland]

James shouldn’t be anywhere near the top 10 discussion.

A massive statement considering you’ve likely never watched him play and didn’t know who he was 3 months ago like the rest of us.

It’s why these polls get sketchy the further down you go.

 

[RabidBadger]

I went with Boomer. I liked the progression I saw from the time my wife pointed out how awful he looked on his skates at the Wjc showcase to being a contributor in DU's title run. David Carle thought enoigh of him to have him on the ice with playoff games on the line.

This year will be telling as he should have a expanded role on the backline.

 

[Konnan511]

Niederbach is vastly underrated.

 

[Ricelund]

Wow, people are really high on Buchelnikov already. I went with Sebrango here because it seems like he's almost NHL ready. I hope Buchelnikov is our Kucherov/Panarin too but he's a long way off.

 

[Frk It]

Crickets because offense shouldn’t come as a surprise with Buium. He’s a converted forward. The big question marks for Buium were his feet and his defensive game. He’s made progress there, but he’s nowhere near a complete package.

I don't have any concerns on his feet.

 

[Realgud]

Wow, people are really high on Buchelnikov already. I went with Sebrango here because it seems like he's almost NHL ready. I hope Buchelnikov is our Kucherov/Panarin too but he's a long way off.

By that logic Cossa shouldn't be at 4

 

[Pavels Dog]

Buchelnikov is an exciting prospect but feels like there's some recency bias over some preseason goals..

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

By that logic Cossa shouldn't be at 4

He shouldn’t. It’s official DRW HFBoard law that all goalies are busts until they are not.

Buchelnikov is an exciting prospect but feels like there's some recency bias over some preseason goals..

Major recency bias. LDN has scored more in a better league in the preseason but people are picking the 5’10” 150lbs winger that’s the same age as LDN because of some highlights.

 

[HisNoodliness]

Crickets because offense shouldn’t come as a surprise with Buium. He’s a converted forward. The big question marks for Buium were his feet and his defensive game. He’s made progress there, but he’s nowhere near a complete package.

Sebrango may be unspectacular, but he will play NHL games, which is more than we can say about anyone else on this list at this moment.

I voted Buium over Sebrango because while I agree that Sebrango will at least play in the NHL, to me, he doesn't seem good enough to actually make a difference there. I have a hard time imagining a guy with his skillset playing on a second pairing unless he becomes elite defensively which I view as unlikely. His skating and size are intriguing, but his hands look to be made of stone and his brain made of muscle whenever I catch a Griffins game. I have a hard time imagining him as an effective distributor at the NHL level.

Buium is less likely to make it but personally I rate him, Niederbach, Buch, LDN, Hanas and maybe even Viro higher than Sebrango because I think they have a higher likelihood to be a meaningful contributor than Sebrango. He strikes me as on his way to a "3 years surviving on the third pair, then wash out" Marchenko style career.

 

[Frk It]

Buium and Wallinder have very similar upside to me. Also have some issue to iron out still. But I am higher on them than the majority of options left.

Niederbach did not have a great +2 season. He had a OK WJC. I don't really get what would make him a top 10 prospect in our current system. I am definitely more intrigued by LDN, but I am not sure he is top 10 either.

Dylan James had a good year in the USHL, I am anxious to see how he does against NCAA competition.

Buchelnikov is someone who was on my radar prior to us drafting him. Definitely some elements there to where you could argue he should have been taken higher, or ranked on public lists higher. I do not think it is out of place for people to be voting for him here.

 

[newfy]

James shouldn’t be anywhere near the top 10 discussion.

Weird that Buchlenikov is about to win this poll and you dont have a problem with that, but the guy drafted top 40 and higher in the exact same draft as Buchelnikov should be nowhere near the top 10... Would love to hear the logic on that one

 

[norrisnick]

Weird that Buchlenikov is about to win this poll and you dont have a problem with that, but the guy drafted top 40 and higher in the exact same draft as Buchelnikov should be nowhere near the top 10... Would love to hear the logic on that one

Probably because James is a contact swing to put the ball in play and Buchelnikov is a swing for the fences. If they both hit, one hits harder.

 

[Frk It]

Major recency bias. LDN has scored more in a better league in the preseason but people are picking the 5’10” 150lbs winger that’s the same age as LDN because of some highlights.

Buchelnikov had a better +1 season in the league he played in than LDN did. Buchelnikov had the 4th most points ever in the MHL for a U19 player. He outscored Kisakov by 20 points, who was a 2nd round pick in 2021, despite being about a full year younger.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Weird that Buchlenikov is about to win this poll and you dont have a problem with that, but the guy drafted top 40 and higher in the exact same draft as Buchelnikov should be nowhere near the top 10... Would love to hear the logic on that one

I don't get it either.

Dylan James was USHL rookie of the year. Here is a list of guys that were also USHL rookie of the year from 2002.

2001–02	Danny Richmond	Chicago
2002–03	Joe Pavelski	Waterloo
2003–04	Matt Ford	Sioux Falls
2004–05	Chad Rau	Des Moines
2005–06	Kyle Okposo	Des Moines
2006–07	Max Pacioretty	Sioux City
2007–08	Jack Connolly	Sioux Falls
2008–09	Louis Leblanc	Omaha
2009–10	Anders Lee	Green Bay
2010–11	John Gaudreau	Dubuque
2011–12	Taylor Cammarata	Waterloo
2012–13	Jake Guentzel	Sioux City
2013–14	Robby Jackson	Chicago
2014–15	Kieffer Bellows	Sioux Falls
2015–16	Cameron Morrison	Youngstown
2016–17	Andrei Svechnikov	Muskegon
2017–18	Matej Pekar	Muskegon
2018–19	Zac Jones	Tri-City
2019–20	Brendan Brisson	Chicago Steel
2020–21	Cole Sillinger	Sioux Falls Stampede

Not a bad list.

Anyway, #9 is pretty much done. Moving onto #10!

 

[newfy]

Probably because James is a contact swing to put the ball in play and Buchelnikov is a swing for the fences. If they both hit, one hits harder.

Just like guys like Larkin, Bertuzzi and Seider were contact swings to put the ball in play? The fascination with flashy guys on this website instead of effective hockey players is funny sometimes

 

[lilidk]

He shouldn’t. It’s official DRW HFBoard law that all goalies are busts until they are not.



Major recency bias. LDN has scored more in a better league in the preseason but people are picking the 5’10” 150lbs winger that’s the same age as LDN because of some highlights.

SHL is not better than KHL. Both players on top lines , both teams are conservative about young players, let's hope both stay on the same lines and not move down

 

[norrisnick]

Just like guys like Larkin, Bertuzzi and Seider were contact swings to put the ball in play? The fascination with flashy guys on this website instead of effective hockey players is funny sometimes

First off, on your 1st rounders you'd better be doing both. You don't mess around with those. They need to hit and better not be a dribbler to the mound (is this metaphor overplayed yet? nah...). Bertuzzi was whatever. Wasn't thrilled with the pick then and not particularly thrilled with the player now.

 

[izlez]

Putting a guy that was just drafted in the 2nd round at the #9 ranked prospect seems pretty standard. Not sure why people are so hung up on recency bias.

We could've never seen any video of him whatsoever and "he was a 2nd round pick" is a reasonable argument to have someone at #9... it's #9.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

SHL is not better than KHL. Both players on top lines , both teams are conservative about young players, let's hope both stay on the same lines and not move down

I don't watch much KHL hockey but what I've noticed is that there is a lot more disparity in the quality of teams there. In the SHL even the relegation teams aren't completely miserable. But the difference in talent level of the top teams in the KHL versus the top teams in the SHL is very small, if at all.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Putting a guy that was just drafted in the 2nd round at the #9 ranked prospect seems pretty standard. Not sure why people are so hung up on recency bias.

We could've never seen any video of him whatsoever and "he was a 2nd round pick" is a reasonable argument to have someone at #9... it's #9.

Because many of us here grade not only on potential, but likelihood of reaching that potential as well as the other ranges of outcomes for the player.

Sebrango could be a 2nd (Less probable) or 3rd pair (most probable) D. He may exceed expectations and provide value as a 22+ minute a night defensive guy to supplement a puck mover like Seider (least probable). But he's going to be a player.

LDN could be a 3rd line C/W (most probable outcome). He could also be a 2nd/3rd line tweener C/W (Less probable). I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see him develop into a scrappy top 6 C/W (even less probable). Or he may blow us all away and become the next Zetterberg (lowest probability)

Buchelnikov is skinny as a rail and small WHILE being an overager at the draft. He should have put on 10-15lbs between the 2021 draft and the 2022 draft but didn't. And while he has a very flashy skillset, at his size without some stockiness or strength behind it is very likely to limit him. So you're looking at a guy that, as of now, is a minor league scorer (most probable) or a top 6 winger. (Least probable)

Outside of Gaudreau how many sub 5'11", sub 170lbs scoring forwards are there in the NHL?

 

[Frk It]

Buchelnikov is skinny as a rail and small WHILE being an overager at the draft. He should have put on 10-15lbs between the 2021 draft and the 2022 draft but didn't.

How the f*** are we going to say this while voting for Johansson 6th, who is literally still listed at 168 lbs as a defenseman, 3 years after he was drafted?

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

How the f*** are we going to say this while voting for Johansson 6th, who is literally still listed at 168 lbs as a defenseman, 3 years after he was drafted?

Much better skater, has proven he can handle physical play in the SHL. Johansson is actually a pretty physical player himself. I'd love to see him gain another 15lbs of muscle for sure, but he'll be a player.

 

[Frk It]

Much better skater, has proven he can handle physical play in the SHL. Johansson is actually a pretty physical player himself. I'd love to see him gain another 15lbs of muscle for sure, but he'll be a player.

Physical play in the SHL means squat. Plenty of small defenseman could do that in Sweden than came over and never could hack it.

If you are going to say Buchelnikov should have gained 10-15 lbs (despite he would have been amongst the very youngest players drafted last year) I'd love to hear the argument for why Johansson hasn't gained 20 lbs by now, and why that is not being held against him more.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Physical play in the SHL means squat. Plenty of small defenseman could do that in Sweden than came over and never could hack it.

If you are going to say Buchelnikov should have gained 10-15 lbs (despite he would have been amongst the very youngest players drafted last year) I'd love to hear the argument for why Johansson hasn't gained 20 lbs by now, and why that is not being held against him more.

Needs to eat his wheaties.