Now someone did a thread deciding to "analyze" the Calgary flames future, so I decided to analyze the oilers and what the future holds for them. Now being a fan of a division rival, you could argue that I'll be bias, but I think I can do a decent job (I'll probably get shit on regardless 
). First I'll get into the pieces they already have, and extrapolate from there.
Forward group:
The oilers have some pretty good centre depth, which mcdavid, draisatl, and strome rounding out the top 3 lines. Everybody knows what mcdavid already is capable of, and draisatl is an excellent top 6 centre (whether he's an elite centre who can carry a line remains to be seen). Strome can put up 35 pts a season, so overall their centre depth is solid. From there however, it gets kinda ugly...
Their LW is pretty poor with the exception of RNH. Lucic at this point is already having issues with his footspeed and should be relegated to the bottom 6, but I don't see any viable replacements within the organization that could play top 6 on the lw. Reider could be an option if lucic is doing terrible, but it really isn't ideal given his points production. The Oilers don't have any notable prospects that can fill in a top 6 lw spot, so it looks like lucic will have to hold the fort for now.... oof.
The RW is pretty awful right now, but there's a lot more hope in this regard. Rattie should not be a permanent replacement on the top line, and regardless he will probably be gone after this year (either he disappoints or he demands a big raise that the Oilers won't be able to afford), but I really think pool party could still be an excellent top liner. I know there have been some to give up on him, but he's only 20 for god sakes! Give him a top 6 role and some pp time, and I think he could light it up. The oilers also have Yamamoto in the pipeline which should help a lot, though I personally don't see him on the lineup until the next season. Nonetheless, there is some hope here, but it's gonna rely on someone breaking out.
Defense:
Surprisingly not as awful as some might think (though it still has issues nonetheless). Nurse is absolutely the face of this defense, and he's the guy with the most upside on this blue line and probably the best they've got. Larson is a solid #4 shutdown guy, but he really shouldn't be on the top pairing, especially with his lackluster offense. Klefbolm is another solid second pairing guy as well, but from there, it's a little sketchy. At this point, either Benning or Russell is the #4 guy, and idk how I feel about that. Benning is decent, but I feel the oilers could use an upgrade. But he's cheap and still has some upside, so it could be worse. Sekera and Russell as bottom pairing guys is terrible, not because they are bad players (granted Sekera was bad this year, and Russell has always had bad underlying numbers), but because those contracts are just bad. Paying 10 million a year for your 3rd pairing really hinders a team in regards to cap flexibility, and it's an awful blemish on a team that needs all the cap is can find to improve. It's a servicable third pairing, but 10 million should buy a lot more than that. Overall, it's not bad, but what I do find concerning is a lack of offense in this blue line. Bouchard could solve that, but he won't be ready for at least a couple years baring something miraculous. Bear is still in the pipeline and could be a nice bottom pairing defensemen, but that's about it in regards to prospects.
Bad management:
Now everyone likes to shit on chia for being a bad gm, and frankly he deserves a lot of it. But Edmonton in general has been a tire fire for the better of a decade, and the lack of accountability in the organization has been shocking. How mctavish and Lowe have jobs in this organization is stunning, especially with the godawful trades and drafting that occurred under them, and the oilers have needed a shakeup for a long time...
That doesn't excuse chia for what he has done either. He had mcdavid fall to him, and there were pieces on this team to build around (Hall, eberle, draisatl, rnh, nurse, klefbom, ect). He has done a terrific job at trying to make this team has uncompetitive as possible by trading away assets and getting returns for fractions of what they were worth (see hall for Larson, eberle for strome). I guess you can make the argument that these trades were necessary because reasons (though I doubt they'd be very good)? Cap management has also been horrible, and when your top 2 players get 21 million a year, that can be a deadly mix. Lucic's contract looks terrible at this point, and he's stuck on the team for 5 more years unless somehow they can get rid of that contract. Sekera and Russell have another 3 years left, and those two will be almost unmovable as well. As a result, the Oilers currently have just under 5 million to sign nurse this season (likely a bridge), after which pulijarvi (and if rattie stays) will need to be resigned and could be looking for raises. With very few pieces that can be moved, I have no clue how the Oilers are gonna fit everybody. I'll give credit to chias drafting which is significantly improved, but it still can't make up for the rest of his flaws.
On the hot seat:
Chia didn't make a lot of moves this offseason, mainly due to how little cap the team has had and just a poor pool of assets to trade (either pieces that can't be moved due to importance or lack of value). This is likely for the best (seeing as how his moves have often ended rather poorly), but nonetheless chia's job is on the line and will depend on how the team performs this coming seasons. I could absolutely see this team taking a playoff spot, but there's a lot of holes in this lineup that can't be fixed in an instant, and chia's bad asset management hasn't helped. If this team doesn't make it this season, he is probably done. It could be good for the organization, but at the same time, the Oilers really cannot hire somebody internally again to replace him. Find some fresh blood elsewhere or you'll end up regretting it...
Conclusion: Short term troubles, long term hope
Despite the issues the team has now, I still think this team has a semi-bright future. There are good players in Edmonton, and assuming some of the crap can be removed (lucic, Russell, sekera), this team could be able to make the moves to improve enough to be a contendor. However, the short term looks to have more issues. The roster is little improved, the team looks to be locked into some bad contracts, and the farm team is still lacking a lot of good prospects (though this is changing). I know I didn't get into coaching (which btw did have some nice additions) and somehow completely forgot to address goaltending, but I think I put the point out there. There's a lot of potential here, but it's going to be up to management to turn this around and stop screwing things up. It would be great to see the Oilers do well again and make the battle of Alberta more interesting - this flames fan is certainly hoping so. Best of luck to Oilers fans, you guys deserve some for your undesired loyalty to this team.
). First I'll get into the pieces they already have, and extrapolate from there.Forward group:
The oilers have some pretty good centre depth, which mcdavid, draisatl, and strome rounding out the top 3 lines. Everybody knows what mcdavid already is capable of, and draisatl is an excellent top 6 centre (whether he's an elite centre who can carry a line remains to be seen). Strome can put up 35 pts a season, so overall their centre depth is solid. From there however, it gets kinda ugly...
Their LW is pretty poor with the exception of RNH. Lucic at this point is already having issues with his footspeed and should be relegated to the bottom 6, but I don't see any viable replacements within the organization that could play top 6 on the lw. Reider could be an option if lucic is doing terrible, but it really isn't ideal given his points production. The Oilers don't have any notable prospects that can fill in a top 6 lw spot, so it looks like lucic will have to hold the fort for now.... oof.
The RW is pretty awful right now, but there's a lot more hope in this regard. Rattie should not be a permanent replacement on the top line, and regardless he will probably be gone after this year (either he disappoints or he demands a big raise that the Oilers won't be able to afford), but I really think pool party could still be an excellent top liner. I know there have been some to give up on him, but he's only 20 for god sakes! Give him a top 6 role and some pp time, and I think he could light it up. The oilers also have Yamamoto in the pipeline which should help a lot, though I personally don't see him on the lineup until the next season. Nonetheless, there is some hope here, but it's gonna rely on someone breaking out.
Defense:
Surprisingly not as awful as some might think (though it still has issues nonetheless). Nurse is absolutely the face of this defense, and he's the guy with the most upside on this blue line and probably the best they've got. Larson is a solid #4 shutdown guy, but he really shouldn't be on the top pairing, especially with his lackluster offense. Klefbolm is another solid second pairing guy as well, but from there, it's a little sketchy. At this point, either Benning or Russell is the #4 guy, and idk how I feel about that. Benning is decent, but I feel the oilers could use an upgrade. But he's cheap and still has some upside, so it could be worse. Sekera and Russell as bottom pairing guys is terrible, not because they are bad players (granted Sekera was bad this year, and Russell has always had bad underlying numbers), but because those contracts are just bad. Paying 10 million a year for your 3rd pairing really hinders a team in regards to cap flexibility, and it's an awful blemish on a team that needs all the cap is can find to improve. It's a servicable third pairing, but 10 million should buy a lot more than that. Overall, it's not bad, but what I do find concerning is a lack of offense in this blue line. Bouchard could solve that, but he won't be ready for at least a couple years baring something miraculous. Bear is still in the pipeline and could be a nice bottom pairing defensemen, but that's about it in regards to prospects.
Bad management:
Now everyone likes to shit on chia for being a bad gm, and frankly he deserves a lot of it. But Edmonton in general has been a tire fire for the better of a decade, and the lack of accountability in the organization has been shocking. How mctavish and Lowe have jobs in this organization is stunning, especially with the godawful trades and drafting that occurred under them, and the oilers have needed a shakeup for a long time...
That doesn't excuse chia for what he has done either. He had mcdavid fall to him, and there were pieces on this team to build around (Hall, eberle, draisatl, rnh, nurse, klefbom, ect). He has done a terrific job at trying to make this team has uncompetitive as possible by trading away assets and getting returns for fractions of what they were worth (see hall for Larson, eberle for strome). I guess you can make the argument that these trades were necessary because reasons (though I doubt they'd be very good)? Cap management has also been horrible, and when your top 2 players get 21 million a year, that can be a deadly mix. Lucic's contract looks terrible at this point, and he's stuck on the team for 5 more years unless somehow they can get rid of that contract. Sekera and Russell have another 3 years left, and those two will be almost unmovable as well. As a result, the Oilers currently have just under 5 million to sign nurse this season (likely a bridge), after which pulijarvi (and if rattie stays) will need to be resigned and could be looking for raises. With very few pieces that can be moved, I have no clue how the Oilers are gonna fit everybody. I'll give credit to chias drafting which is significantly improved, but it still can't make up for the rest of his flaws.
On the hot seat:
Chia didn't make a lot of moves this offseason, mainly due to how little cap the team has had and just a poor pool of assets to trade (either pieces that can't be moved due to importance or lack of value). This is likely for the best (seeing as how his moves have often ended rather poorly), but nonetheless chia's job is on the line and will depend on how the team performs this coming seasons. I could absolutely see this team taking a playoff spot, but there's a lot of holes in this lineup that can't be fixed in an instant, and chia's bad asset management hasn't helped. If this team doesn't make it this season, he is probably done. It could be good for the organization, but at the same time, the Oilers really cannot hire somebody internally again to replace him. Find some fresh blood elsewhere or you'll end up regretting it...
Conclusion: Short term troubles, long term hope
Despite the issues the team has now, I still think this team has a semi-bright future. There are good players in Edmonton, and assuming some of the crap can be removed (lucic, Russell, sekera), this team could be able to make the moves to improve enough to be a contendor. However, the short term looks to have more issues. The roster is little improved, the team looks to be locked into some bad contracts, and the farm team is still lacking a lot of good prospects (though this is changing). I know I didn't get into coaching (which btw did have some nice additions) and somehow completely forgot to address goaltending, but I think I put the point out there. There's a lot of potential here, but it's going to be up to management to turn this around and stop screwing things up. It would be great to see the Oilers do well again and make the battle of Alberta more interesting - this flames fan is certainly hoping so
. Best of luck to Oilers fans, you guys deserve some for your undesired loyalty to this team.
