GDT: Anaheim at Columbus -placeholder edition

[major major]

I read it and can't follow.

They are saying there is a 17% chance we draft 2nd how is that possible to be lower than 20%?

I mean if we win the 20/100 balls it's 100% sure we'll be drafting in top 3 (e'd be first).

But if we lost first one w still get 20 balls on second attempt - and that would have to be greater than 20%.

Maybe this is why I'm an accountant instead of a statistician. I must be missing something.

(20/92)*.8 = 17%

You're missing the .8. It's the probability that we make it to the second draw, because there is a .2 chance we win the first draw.

 

[EspenK]

(20/92)*.8 = 17%

You're missing the .8. It's the probability that we make it to the second draw, because there is a .2 chance we win the first draw.

If we don't make it to the second draw who cares?

We're not talking about the probability of making the second or third round we are talking about the probability of winning one of them.

We have no worse than a 20% chance to win the first draw and no better than a 26.7% to win the third.

I'm still guessing that our overall chance of being in the top three is somewhere between 20 & 26.7 %. The draws are independent events and the odds for each will be determined independently right before the drawing. There is no cumulative winning chance imo.

 

[major major]

If we don't make it to the second draw who cares?

We're not talking about the probability of making the second or third round we are talking about the probability of winning one of them.

We have no worse than a 20% chance to win the first draw and no better than a 26.7% to win the third.

I'm still guessing that our overall chance of being in the top three is somewhere between 20 & 26.7 %. The draws are independent events and the odds for each will be determined independently right before the drawing. There is no cumulative winning chance imo.

I don't know how to explain it any better than I already have. We can just table this until the draft when there will assuredly be some articles that explain it better.

 

[JacketsDavid]

I don't know how to explain it any better than I already have. We can just table this until the draft when there will assuredly be some articles that explain it better.

Yeah I think we'll have to, I'm not following. Thanks for trying though

 

[Johansen2Foligno]

Prout broke Getzlaf's nose as well?

 

[EspenK]

Prout broke Getzlaf's nose as well?

Yes. It happened when Prout grabbed him around the head pulling him out of a scrum. I didn't necessarily see a punch like he nailed Stewart with.

 

[Johansen2Foligno]

Prout is a wild animal

 

[SuperGenius]

I'm not sure I can remember a guy that significantly injured two different players in different altercations quite like this. Since 2000 anyway. Scott Stevens probably did it, but still...man, if Prout can manage to be a 3rd pairing guy with some consistency, he would add some much needed size and strength to the CBJ.