Speculation: An Offersheet that could actually work

[Meeqs]

For pretty much every reason offer sheets never work. They are a part of the game but they may as well not be, but they do like to be thrown around for fun. So I was thinking about one situation where an offer sheet could work: Young Goaltenders.

If you are a team who really believes a young goaltender could become a starter one day, for this example lets say Demko, then the OS could be a great way to get them for cheap. If you offered a young goalie 4m AAVx7 then you would put the owning team in a very weird spot of having to decide if they are willing to commit to the young goalie long term before they are ready. If they match then they have a large commitment on an unproven guy and you are essentially setting their fate for them, which could lead them to have to make other moves they might otherwise not want to. If they don't then it only cost you a 2nd.

The reason why I think this is the one area where it could work is because it turn it into a game of chicken on which org essentially trusts the young player more and is willing to take on the high risk move. It would take balls to do but it'd be possible.

Edit: I was unaware of a stipulation of OS that was brought up in the thread. So for the sake of conversation lets assume its a 4m x 5 year deal. Thanks to those who noticed.

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[TheImpatientPanther]

If WPG doesnt want to trade Trouba to FLA then FLA should offer sheet Brossoit as a nice 2a option if signing/trading for Bob doesnt work out. $2.5 to 3 million would be tough for WPG and would cost us a 2nd IIRC.

 

[jimslob]

For pretty much every reason offer sheets never work. They are a part of the game but they may as well not be, but they do like to be thrown around for fun. So I was thinking about one situation where an offer sheet could work: Young Goaltenders.

If you are a team who really believes a young goaltender could become a starter one day, for this example lets say Demko, then the OS could be a great way to get them for cheap. If you offered a young goalie 4m AAVx7 then you would put the owning team in a very weird spot of having to decide if they are willing to commit to the young goalie long term before they are ready. If they match then they have a large commitment on an unproven guy and you are essentially setting their fate for them, which could lead them to have to make other moves they might otherwise not want to. If they don't then it only cost you a 2nd.

The reason why I think this is the one area where it could work is because it turn it into a game of chicken on which org essentially trusts the young player more and is willing to take on the high risk move. It would take balls to do but it'd be possible.

Actually the compensation for that would be a 1st and a 3rd based on 2018 compensation levels. Remember compensation is based on length of contract or total of contract divided by five if longer than 5 years.

 

[SpaceCoyote]

4m x 7y is a 1st and 3rd round pick. The AAV is calculated at a maximum of 5 years even if the deal offered is higher.

 

[Meeqs]

4m x 7y is a 1st and 3rd round pick. The AAV is calculated at a maximum of 5 years even if the deal offered is higher.

Ohh I actually never knew that tid bit. Thanks for bringing that up.

 

[Meeqs]

If WPG doesnt want to trade Trouba to FLA then FLA should offer sheet Brossoit as a nice 2a option if signing/trading for Bob doesnt work out. $2.5 to 3 million would be tough for WPG and would cost us a 2nd IIRC.

Yeah I think in every case for a skater an OS never really makes sense unless you are a competitor trying to mess with another teams cap but that situation is often niche at best.

However the young goaltender market could be the one where OS could work, although the method itself does carry different kinds of risk.

 

[Mickey Marner]

This is how San Jose ended up with Niemi.

 

[CDN24]

For pretty much every reason offer sheets never work. They are a part of the game but they may as well not be, but they do like to be thrown around for fun. So I was thinking about one situation where an offer sheet could work: Young Goaltenders.

If you are a team who really believes a young goaltender could become a starter one day, for this example lets say Demko, then the OS could be a great way to get them for cheap. If you offered a young goalie 4m AAVx7 then you would put the owning team in a very weird spot of having to decide if they are willing to commit to the young goalie long term before they are ready. If they match then they have a large commitment on an unproven guy and you are essentially setting their fate for them, which could lead them to have to make other moves they might otherwise not want to. If they don't then it only cost you a 2nd.

The reason why I think this is the one area where it could work is because it turn it into a game of chicken on which org essentially trusts the young player more and is willing to take on the high risk move. It would take balls to do but it'd be possible.

Edit: I was unaware of a stipulation of OS that was brought up in the thread. So for the sake of conversation lets assume its a 4m x 5 year deal. Thanks to those who noticed.

You are going to be regretting it for a long time if he does not become a starter, It'll cost you retention and a nice pick to get out from under that contract if he becomes Redlight Racicot

 

[CDN24]

This is how San Jose ended up with Niemi.

Neimi had a cup at that point as a starter, a bit more proven that what the OP is talking about.

 

[Meeqs]

You are going to be regretting it for a long time if he does not become a starter, It'll cost you retention and a nice pick to get out from under that contract if he becomes Redlight Racicot

Its essentially using the OS to facilitate a high risk move, but team already do this in trades at the cost of giving up more assets in return for a better hockey deal. What the OS allows is to target the players who teams may not want to trade.

It all depends which is a better fit. For a rebuilding team with a lot of cap and few assets an OS risk like this might make sense.

 

[Meeqs]

This is how San Jose ended up with Niemi.

In a round about way yes. In that case they OS the safer asset and ended up with the goalie they wanted. It was a clever idea when we remove the hindsight bias.

Teams looking for goaltending are often having to make risky moves and hoping for the best. Goalies are voodoo

 

[Shesterkybomb]

If I'm making an offer sheet it's to Kapanen. They are up against it and the compensation wouldnt be very high. If they match then it buries them further.

 

[Kahvi]

For pretty much every reason offer sheets never work. They are a part of the game but they may as well not be, but they do like to be thrown around for fun. So I was thinking about one situation where an offer sheet could work: Young Goaltenders.

If you are a team who really believes a young goaltender could become a starter one day, for this example lets say Demko, then the OS could be a great way to get them for cheap. If you offered a young goalie 4m AAVx7 then you would put the owning team in a very weird spot of having to decide if they are willing to commit to the young goalie long term before they are ready. If they match then they have a large commitment on an unproven guy and you are essentially setting their fate for them, which could lead them to have to make other moves they might otherwise not want to. If they don't then it only cost you a 2nd.

The reason why I think this is the one area where it could work is because it turn it into a game of chicken on which org essentially trusts the young player more and is willing to take on the high risk move. It would take balls to do but it'd be possible.

Edit: I was unaware of a stipulation of OS that was brought up in the thread. So for the sake of conversation lets assume its a 4m x 5 year deal. Thanks to those who noticed.

First you'd put that young goalie in a spot where he'd have to decide whether he wants to sign that kind of deal

 

[danielpalfredsson]

5 years, 8.XXM per to Thomas Chabot on July 1st 2020

11/11/6/6/6 structure with the max amount of salary possible in signing bonuses.

Compensation would be a 1st/2nd/3rd, Melnyk may not want to give Chabot a 10M cheque in both July 2020 and July 2021.

 

[Snowman]

5 years, 8.XXM per to Thomas Chabot on July 1st 2020

11/11/6/6/6 structure with the max amount of salary possible in signing bonuses.

Compensation would be a 1st/2nd/3rd, Melnyk may not want to give Chabot a 10M cheque in both July 2020 and July 2021.

I don't think you can vary the salary that much. I believe the maximum is 35% from highest paid year to lowest paid year.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I don't think you can vary the salary that much. I believe the maximum is 35% from highest paid year to lowest paid year.

I always thought the rule was that the lowest paid year cannot be less than 50 percent of the highest paid year.

After further investigation it seems that you are ALSO right and salary cannot vary more than 35 percent from year to year.

While I appreciate the opportunity to learn that, it doesn't change my premise much.

11/10/6.5/6.6/6 works out and causes the same issues for Ottawa.

 

[larmex99]

If WPG doesnt want to trade Trouba to FLA then FLA should offer sheet Brossoit as a nice 2a option if signing/trading for Bob doesnt work out. $2.5 to 3 million would be tough for WPG and would cost us a 2nd IIRC.

Pretty sure Trouba will be available if he won’t sign a reasonable contract with the Jets. FLA might not want to pay the price but I doubt it will be as high as most of my fellow Jets fans think. If you want LB for a second why not offer it and then you won’t have to overpay the guy on an offer sheet.

 

[Snowman]

I always thought the rule was that the lowest paid year cannot be less than 50 percent of the highest paid year.

After further investigation it seems that you are ALSO right and salary cannot vary more than 35 percent from year to year.

While I appreciate the opportunity to learn that, it doesn't change my premise much.

11/10/6.5/6.6/6 works out and causes the same issues for Ottawa.

True, I think your premise could still work. I just wanted to point out the contract variation thing.

Otherwise, we start getting guys saying well why don't we offer 20/1/1/1/1 or something crazy.

 

[ToDavid]

If they don't then it only cost you a 2nd.

And an unproven goalie on a 7 year, $4 million contract.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

True, I think your premise could still work. I just wanted to point out the contract variation thing.

Otherwise, we start getting guys saying well why don't we offer 20/1/1/1/1 or something crazy.

I appreciate it. It's always good to learn new things.

 

[Meeqs]

And an unproven goalie on a 7 year, $4 million contract.

Haha, that's the fun part. You get to leverage your AM Scouting

 

[Meeqs]

First you'd put that young goalie in a spot where he'd have to decide whether he wants to sign that kind of deal

You'd have to think it would be hard for a kid to turn down that kind of money and job security at that point in their career.

 

[Meeqs]

If I'm making an offer sheet it's to Kapanen. They are up against it and the compensation wouldnt be very high. If they match then it buries them further.

I wont get into all the issues with why OS don't work with players and why I get where you are coming from, this thread isn't really meant for that discussion.

 

[Spartachat]

Just offersheet any of the Sen's RFAs. They are way too cheap to match anything.

 

[PetterssonSimp]

I’m most surprised that divisional rival teams don’t use predatory offersheets more often. Especially when it comes to 2nd tier but quality players on teams that have elite players rather to sign or signed taking up huge amount of cap %!

The Nylander situation could have easily been perfect. Sign Nylander to a big money short term contract that falls within a lower compensation rate. Especially had it been for 1 year, forcing the Leafs into a situation where he now can’t be traded if matched while also tying the team to a high qualifying offer the follow summer when Marner/Matthews are also up.