Amped for this Season

[charlie1]

As a reminder, my prediction remains that the Isles are the 4th best team in the East (behind TBL, BOS, PIT).
#bookit

No love for Columbus eh? I think they're on their way up and will round out the top 4 with the others you mentioned.

 

[steveat]

It seems we are predicting too high

Why are all the other sites placing the Isles as just out of playoffs or still a bottom dwelling team...AFTER the signings?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPUmWe99_-U

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGWxt06LfDM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfgKGFy4kdM

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...y-nhl-team-to-win-the-2015-stanley-cup/page/8

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1701359 (The entire forum just about thinks we are still bottom dwellers)

http://vancouversportsbro.com/2014/08/03/predicting-the-2014-2015-nhl-standings/

http://ducksnpucks.com/2014/07/29/anticipated-nhl-standings-for-2015-who-will-make-the-playoffs/

There's a lot more, but I have to get back to work.

Either everyone else is blind or we aren't seeing something.

 

[13th Floor]

It seems we are predicting too high

Why are all the other sites placing the Isles as just out of playoffs or still a bottom dwelling team...AFTER the signings?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPUmWe99_-U

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGWxt06LfDM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfgKGFy4kdM

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...y-nhl-team-to-win-the-2015-stanley-cup/page/8

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1701359 (The entire forum just about thinks we are still bottom dwellers)

http://vancouversportsbro.com/2014/08/03/predicting-the-2014-2015-nhl-standings/

http://ducksnpucks.com/2014/07/29/anticipated-nhl-standings-for-2015-who-will-make-the-playoffs/

There's a lot more, but I have to get back to work.

Either everyone else is blind or we aren't seeing something.

I think it is two reasons. In general, not talking about a specific link above, but talking about a ton of predictions looked at across multiple sites and the main board of this forum:

1) People are terrible at making predictions like this. It is hard to do, and generally they don't do too much wild swinging. Nobody picks teams like the Avs and Tampa to go from bottom feeders to top teams. It is usually the same 16 teams that made the playoffs, switch 2 to 4 of them with bubble teams from last year, and there you go. Even though it happens all the time, it is tough to make a team jump too many spots in your prediction. So, most have us improving, but falling just shy. Going from a bottom 5 team to a middle-of-the-pack team is not underselling us -- that's a pretty decent improvement.

If 80% of the teams from last year's playoffs make the playoffs this year (just pulling a number out of thin air), then it is easy to just predict basically the same teams and be 80% right then to guess which 80% are the right ones. Your prediction looks better.


2) I think the prediction is kind of right. Gun to my head, that's where I have us. We didn't learn the intangibles of winning, and winning consistently, overnight. We have upgrades on paper, but still a ways to go. Besides, teams have to finish below us, and I can make a case for any other team in our division being pretty much just as good as us if not better, except for Carolina.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

People make predictions based on - literally - nothing but their gut feelings.

For example, here is the basis from ducks n pucks:

Speaking of Washington, this year should be a return to form for the Caps. Barry Trotz should be a huge upgrade as a coach and their overpaid blue-line should be able to help out Braden Holtby enough to win more games in the lackluster East. Defending Eastern Conference Finals Champion New York should take third. They’ve lost a lot of their role players, but should still do well enough to retain a playoff position, though their roster looks weaker than that of the Caps or Pens. I expect the Flyers to round out this division. While Toronto, New Jersey, and Columbus could all take this spot, none of their rosters match up to that of the Flyers. Steve Mason should be able to carry them to the post season this year and a first round matchup between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh is overdue yet again.

Note, there is not one ounce of analysis. Literally none. Just conclusory statements, which should be disregarded outright. This person's analysis has no use whatsoever.

Look for actual analysis to determine playoff seating.

I'd advise that you take a look at the Corsi model that Charlie and I put together. When you use actual facts, you draw vastly different conclusions. Our prediction placed the Islanders to be the fourth best team in the conference.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

That whole ducks and pucks analysis names TWO players and ONE coach to explain the entire division.

It is a waste of words and isn't worth the bytes it took to post it on the internet.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

No love for Columbus eh? I think they're on their way up and will round out the top 4 with the others you mentioned.

I love Columbus, but I can't change my mind just because I love them!

My prediction was based on the work we did, I'm not in a position to adjust course; but I agree that Columbus will be right there with us.

If we end up at five, I won't be surprised.

I also won't be surprised if Boston ends up at 5.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

More of that nonsense analysis:

This is actually quite a tough division to predict. When taking a look at things no doubt the Penguins, Rangers, and Flyers are the three best teams in the division. After them you can rotate the bottom five teams. When looking at last year the Devils lost thirteen shootouts. I highly doubt that happens again. Their roster looks quite awful but I think with Cory Schneider in net as the starter and no Brodeur they can be a playoff team or fall just short. Columbus has not impressed me much. I don’t think they repeat what they did last year. They played with a lot of heart and energy in the post season and to get there. I just don’t see it happening again this year. They might make me eat my words, who knows. I believe you could rotate them with the Devils but I’m going with the Devils this year. The Washington Capitals are a team I could see becoming a disaster by hiring Barry Trotz as a coach. He does not fit as a coach for that offensive styled team. He coaches an awful style. I see him lasting not long at all there. He coached some of the most boring hockey I have ever seen when he was in Nashville. As for Carolina, I’m not really sure if they will finish last in the division. I admittedly don’t follow them much to make a solid prediction. But I really don’t see them cracking the top eight in the conference either. They should realistically finish ahead of teams such as the Florida Panthers, Buffalo Sabres, and maybe Senators but not good enough to get into the postseason.

Literally ZERO facts. Just this clown's gut feelings. Feel free to disregard that drivel.

 

[ScaredStreit]

It seems we are predicting too high

Why are all the other sites placing the Isles as just out of playoffs or still a bottom dwelling team...AFTER the signings?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPUmWe99_-U

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGWxt06LfDM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfgKGFy4kdM

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...y-nhl-team-to-win-the-2015-stanley-cup/page/8

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1701359 (The entire forum just about thinks we are still bottom dwellers)

http://vancouversportsbro.com/2014/08/03/predicting-the-2014-2015-nhl-standings/

http://ducksnpucks.com/2014/07/29/anticipated-nhl-standings-for-2015-who-will-make-the-playoffs/

There's a lot more, but I have to get back to work.

Either everyone else is blind or we aren't seeing something.

It's normal for fans to overrate their players....ESPECIALLY youngsters/prospects. We rate them higher than their peers because quite frankly we seem them a lot more, and we analyze them a lot more.

It's common. It's what every fan (sans myself and a handful of others on here) did last year.

But honestly this team imo will not make the playoffs, and I don't get having them finish top 4 like others. Why?

We lost:

Vanek

Gained:
Halak
Grabovski (<Vanek)
Kulemin (decent 3rd liner)

Is that really so much of an upgrade?

And one AGAIN they ignore their single biggest need: DEFENSE.

As long as our defensive unit remains the same--we won't be making ANY noise anytime soon.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

I guess Halak doesn't count as defensive improvement.

 

[13th Floor]

It's normal for fans to overrate their players....ESPECIALLY youngsters/prospects. We rate them higher than their peers because quite frankly we seem them a lot more, and we analyze them a lot more.

It's common. It's what every fan (sans myself and a handful of others on here) did last year.

But honestly this team imo will not make the playoffs, and I don't get having them finish top 4 like others. Why?

We lost:

Vanek

Gained:
Halak
Grabovski (<Vanek)
Kulemin (decent 3rd liner)

Is that really so much of an upgrade?

And one AGAIN they ignore their single biggest need: DEFENSE.

As long as our defensive unit remains the same--we won't be making ANY noise anytime soon.

I think the whole A is better than B, C is worse than D thing ends up missing the big picture. We may have the best depth at forward in our division. Take away Vanek/Moulson and replace with Grabo, Kulemin, Conacher, full year of Strome, full year of Nelson in the top 6, and Lee ready to go most likely in BP. More lines can score, we can throw out more line combinations, and we can deal with injuries better. That won't show up in the above analysis. If analysis liked that work, then the best team on paper would always win. Problem is that it misses what they are like as a unit.

I think people underestimate the pickup of Johnson as well. He is easily better than what we got out of Poulin/Nilsson last year.

I agree with you that defense is still a weakness.

 

[charlie1]

I love Columbus, but I can't change my mind just because I love them!

My prediction was based on the work we did, I'm not in a position to adjust course; but I agree that Columbus will be right there with us.

If we end up at five, I won't be surprised.

I also won't be surprised if Boston ends up at 5.

We only did that for the Islanders though right? And, if memory serves, that was using our ideal lineup, not the lineup most likely to occur. I'd like to redo that using out most likely lineup this upcoming season, and compare to other teams in our conference to see where we end up.

 

[First Blood]

I expect around 90 points from Tavares this year, 50 from Grabovski, and around 40 from Frans.

That's good enough for 180 points.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

We only did that for the Islanders though right? And, if memory serves, that was using our ideal lineup, not the lineup most likely to occur. I'd like to redo that using out most likely lineup this upcoming season, and compare to other teams in our conference to see where we end up.

That's a good point.

We can also put some other teams in too...

However, it was a a GF/GA measure; like a pythagorean record in baseball. So it was just to put us in a "likely" sitting without taking other teams into account. In some ways that is better because it eliminates variables.

On the other hand, it is clearly less accurate (standings-wise).

It seems highly likely that we will be in a 4-6 range with NJD, CBJ. Possibly 3-6 with Boston.

I expect a significant glut in the standings from 3 or 4 to 7.

You and I should brainstorm on our next modeling step and put something together. This offseason is going on way too long.

 

[First Blood]

That's a good point.

We can also put some other teams in too...

However, it was a a GF/GA measure; like a pythagorean record in baseball. So it was just to put us in a "likely" sitting without taking other teams into account. In some ways that is better because it eliminates variables.

On the other hand, it is clearly less accurate (standings-wise).

It seems highly likely that we will be in a 4-6 range with NJD, CBJ. Possibly 3-6 with Boston.

I expect a significant glut in the standings from 3 or 4 to 7.

You and I should brainstorm on our next modeling step and put something together. This offseason is going on way too long.

You may have already done it, but I want a really good one on our 3 centers now. I want your guys best numbers/stats/ whatever you want to call them to predict how many points Tavares, Grabo, and Nielsen can combine for given there lines, linemates etc TOI

 

[ScaredStreit]

I think the whole A is better than B, C is worse than D thing ends up missing the big picture. We may have the best depth at forward in our division. Take away Vanek/Moulson and replace with Grabo, Kulemin, Conacher, full year of Strome, full year of Nelson in the top 6, and Lee ready to go most likely in BP. More lines can score, we can throw out more line combinations, and we can deal with injuries better. That won't show up in the above analysis. If analysis liked that work, then the best team on paper would always win. Problem is that it misses what they are like as a unit.

I think people underestimate the pickup of Johnson as well. He is easily better than what we got out of Poulin/Nilsson last year.

I agree with you that defense is still a weakness.

-I agree we need to see them as unit before we know. But since we don't know that for sure just yet, the only thing we have to look at is on paper.

-I agree Johnson >>>>>> Nilsson/Poulin

-And yes defense is still a HUGE weakness. Unfortunately it's also what wins championships in the NHL.

I guess Halak doesn't count as defensive improvement.

Halak's not a defenseman. So no he's not an improvement to the defensive unit.

 

[ScaredStreit]

That's a good point.

We can also put some other teams in too...

However, it was a a GF/GA measure; like a pythagorean record in baseball. So it was just to put us in a "likely" sitting without taking other teams into account. In some ways that is better because it eliminates variables.

On the other hand, it is clearly less accurate (standings-wise).

It seems highly likely that we will be in a 4-6 range with NJD, CBJ. Possibly 3-6 with Boston.

I expect a significant glut in the standings from 3 or 4 to 7.

You and I should brainstorm on our next modeling step and put something together. This offseason is going on way too long.

If the Isles finish lower than 3-6/7 can we begin to admit that Corsi stats aren't the best way to analyze players, and that "watching" them play is just as if not more important?

Honestly you're making big claims for the Isles. 4th is not going to happen. Period.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

If the Isles finish lower than 3-6/7 can we begin to admit that Corsi stats aren't the best way to analyze players, and that "watching" them play is just as if not more important?

Honestly you're making big claims for the Isles. 4th is not going to happen. Period.

It would depend on what happens whether Capuano uses the ideal lineups, whether we have injuries, and numerous other factors.

I base my conclusions on FACTS so if the facts change, my views change. I embrace being proven wrong because it provides conclusive data to work from.

And I have always said you need to watch the games. ALWAYS. I keep saying everytime someone pops out this strawman again. So, yes, I've already stated countless times that it is crucial to watch the game. It is also crucial to review the statistics to figure out what you missed.

If you understood the value of the Corsi model and CF%, these statements and questions would feel extremely foolish to ask. In no way have I ever said that corsi is the end all be all of anything. It is a tool, one which IS extremely valuable; and one that provides us a great deal of predictive information.

 

[charlie1]

It would depend on what happens whether Capuano uses the ideal lineups, whether we have injuries, and numerous other factors.

I base my conclusions on FACTS so if the facts change, my views change. I embrace being proven wrong because it provides conclusive data to work from.

And I have always said you need to watch the games. ALWAYS. I keep saying everytime someone pops out this strawman again. So, yes, I've already stated countless times that it is crucial to watch the game. It is also crucial to review the statistics to figure out what you missed.

If you understood the value of the Corsi model and CF%, these statements and questions would feel extremely foolish to ask. In no way have I ever said that corsi is the end all be all of anything. It is a tool, one which IS extremely valuable; and one that provides us a great deal of predictive information.

Ad nauseam.

 

[startainfection*]

3rd round play off experience

yes i actually believe that will happen

 

[startainfection*]

I expect around 90 points from Tavares this year, 50 from Grabovski, and around 40 from Frans.

That's good enough for 180 points.

i think that grabo and nielsen put up almost identical numbers, they will be getting about the same amount of ice time and equal quality line mates in all situations

 

[BroadwayJay*]

You may have already done it, but I want a really good one on our 3 centers now. I want your guys best numbers/stats/ whatever you want to call them to predict how many points Tavares, Grabo, and Nielsen can combine for given there lines, linemates etc TOI

We can't predict points, really. I could give you an estimate of the shots a line will take by time, an estimate of the shooting percentage, and then an estimate of how many goals we expect them to score based on that.

It wouldn't be accurate though.

We can't really predict WHO will scores the points, only how who is on the ice will impact whether points are scored. Strangely counter-intuitive, I know.

Our most reliable prediction is the GF/GA by team, in my opinion.

 

[ScaredStreit]

It would depend on what happens whether Capuano uses the ideal lineups, whether we have injuries, and numerous other factors.

I base my conclusions on FACTS so if the facts change, my views change. I embrace being proven wrong because it provides conclusive data to work from.

And I have always said you need to watch the games. ALWAYS. I keep saying everytime someone pops out this strawman again. So, yes, I've already stated countless times that it is crucial to watch the game. It is also crucial to review the statistics to figure out what you missed.

If you understood the value of the Corsi model and CF%, these statements and questions would feel extremely foolish to ask. In no way have I ever said that corsi is the end all be all of anything. It is a tool, one which IS extremely valuable; and one that provides us a great deal of predictive information.

The Isles are NOT going to finish 4th. I don't need to look at any facts to know that. The defense wasn't addressed, and our 2nd best forward was replaced with an inferior scorer, and a decent 3rd liner.

 

[charlie1]

We can't predict points, really. I could give you an estimate of the shots a line will take by time, an estimate of the shooting percentage, and then an estimate of how many goals we expect them to score based on that.

It wouldn't be accurate though.

We can't really predict WHO will scores the points, only how who is on the ice will impact whether points are scored. Strangely counter-intuitive, I know.

Our most reliable prediction is the GF/GA by team, in my opinion.

This is actually a really tricky question: "What can we predict?" Certainly we can predict broad patterns with some confidence, like Tavares + Crosby + Malkin will have more points than say Clutterbuck + Sutter + Maatta. But the benchmark in forecasting is typically the Constant predictor. That is, can we predict something better than just saying it will be the same as last year (or last game)? This is often difficult, and we probably can't predict individual players' points any better than a constant predictor at this point. We can actually test this at the end of the season using Seafoam's polls.

Regarding GF/GA, I actually think CF/CA will be the easiest to predict, for the same reason we use CF/CA rather than GF/GA for inference (larger sample size). That would be relatively easy to test.

In the end though, GF/GA is the only thing that matters, but I don't think it will be easier to predict than C.

 

[Axe Man]

We are talking about the Islanders. I am as much amped up for the upcoming season as I am prepared for disappointment. I expect the team to be improved but how much remains to be seen. Not trying to be a downer because I am quite pleased with the players we have added. I just need to wait and see.

 

[MJF]

We can't predict points, really. I could give you an estimate of the shots a line will take by time, an estimate of the shooting percentage, and then an estimate of how many goals we expect them to score based on that.

It wouldn't be accurate though.

We can't really predict WHO will scores the points, only how who is on the ice will impact whether points are scored. Strangely counter-intuitive, I know.

Our most reliable prediction is the GF/GA by team, in my opinion.

Is there a Corsi to predict whether the players on this team have the mental toughness not to let a 3 game losing streak blossom into an 8 game losing streak around Veteran's Day?