- Dec 2, 2007
- 17,274
- 2,226
Hasn't been a central location in awhile, other fans keep asking about him or other centers... let's combine this stuff and give a solid location to show other fanbases our thoughts on him and why we want to keep him.
I thought I'd open up the thread with the right idea and provide an analytical argument in Stastny's favor. I'm almost out of time so I can't go into too much more depth right now, but I'm sure others will post some solid arguments in here and I can always link them in the OP for a quick TOC.
If you have a request for me to look into, I'll see what I can do later.
Career Numbers, Projected Career Numbers
[table="head;width=600]Season|GP|G|A|P|+/-|PIM|PPG|SHG|GWG|S|S%
2006-2007|82|28|50|78|4|42|11|0|6 |185|15.1%
2007-2008|66|24|47|71|22|24|3|0|4|138|17.4%
Proj:|82|30|58|88|27|30|4|0|5|171|17.4%
2008-2009|45|11|25|36|-9|22|7|0|2|118|9.3%
Proj:|82|20|46|66|-16|40|13|0|4|215|9.3%
2009-2010|81|20|59|79|2|50|9|0|2|199|10.1%
2010-2011|74|22|35|57|-7|56|4|1|3|181|12.2%
Proj:|82|24|39|63|-8|62|4|1|3|201|12.2%
2011 Portion|36|8|13|21|-9|30|0|0|1|87|9.2%
2011-2012|79|21|32|53|-8|34|7|0|2|190|11.1%
Proj:|82|22|33|55|-8|35|7|0|2|197|11.1%
2011 Portion|37|11|10|21|-6|14|4|0|0|93|11.8%
Career Total:|427|126|248|374|4|228|41|1|19|1011|12.5%
Career Avg:|71|21|41|62|1|38|7|0|3|169|12.5%
Career Proj/82|82|24|48|72|1|44|8|0|4|194|12.5%
[/table]
2011 Calendar Year and Adjusted Career Numbers without 2011
[table="head;width=600]Season|GP|G|A|P|+/-|PIM|PPG|SHG|GWG|S|S%
2011 Calendar|73|19|23|42|-15|44|4|0|1|180|10.6%
2011 Proj/82|82|22|27|48|-17|51|5|0|1|207|10.6%
Total W/O 2011:|354|107|225|332|19|184|37|1|18|831|12.9%
Proj W/O 2011:|82|25|52|77|4|43|9|0|4|192|12.9%
[/table]
The typical Stastny to X thread typically devolves into a series of statements such as; “He’s declined the past two years†“He hasn’t played like he did when he entered the league in a long time†“He’s a second line center†“He’s not that goodâ€. Given the lack of knowledge (aka, ignorance) regarding Staz, I did some math in the past which just required a quick update to the spreadsheet for his final 2011-12 numbers.
The key to this argument in my opinion revolves around the second table, Stastny's 2011 numbers. These numbers have logical grounding within both observational data and statistical data.
First, the obvious thing noted is that his goal totals did not decrease. Stastny is a career 20 goal scorer, never falling outside that range without severe injury hampering his season (2008-2009) but still projecting to 20+ goals.
So then, why is Stastny "declining"?
Because his assist totals have been down for two seasons now, while observationally he still has "it" with his passing game, making ridiculous plays look easy. The proof is based on his linemate TOI charts via Behindthenet.
Stastny's TOI and Linemate TOI% with him
[table="head;width=350]Season|Staz TOI|Linemate|TOI%|TOI|G|P
2010-11|1117.03|DAVIDJONES|40.7|455|27|45
||CHRISSTEWART|32.2|360|13|30
||MILANHEJDUK|27.3|305|22|56
||KEVINPORTER|21.4|239|14|25
2011-12|1205.33|DAVIDJONES|47.1|568|20|37
||MILANHEJDUK|34.6|417|14|37
||MATTDUCHENE|26.7|322|14|28
||T.J.GALIARDI|17|205|8|14
[/table]
During the 2010 portion of 2010-11 season, he was primarily playing on the Galiardi – Stastny – Stewart line, one which was extremely dominant. The first ~4 months of that season the Avalanche were actually the #1 scoring team in the entire league, and it coincided with their higher standings as well (briefly flirting with the division leading Canucks during their SCF season). The team was firing on all cylinders offensively. In fact, the trio combined for 18 goals, 37 points over the first 14 games of the season before Galiardi went down and then Stewart went down a couple weeks later.
It wasn’t long before Stastny began accepting rotations of Hejduk (30% TOI), Jones (44% TOI) and Porter (27.5% TOI) on his wings from January onward. Additional rotations included the likes of Ryan Stoa (50% TOI) and Brandon Yip (17% TOI). How did his numbers respond? 21 points in the final 36 games, or .58 P/G.
Likewise, he started 2011-12 on a Jones – Stastny – Kobasew line, atrocious to say the least. Galiardi found his way on there for a little while, Hejduk played there until around January/February and Duchene was rotated onto his left wing with Jones/Winnik playing the right side for awhile until Duchy got hurt.
However, around January/February Mueller returned and was placed with Stastny and Jones… the scoring started back up. Then McGinn was acquired and he played with Stastny and Jones, the line combined for 18 goals, 35 points in 17 games, harkening back to the days where Stewart was on Staz’s line.
Well, what does all of that mean? (tl;dr)
Stastny played with a bunch of linemates during the 2011 season which were either not scoring (Jones, Duchene), declining (Hejduk), scrubs (Porter, Stoa, Yip) or bottom 6 forwards (Winnik, Kobasew). This did not affect his game because Stastny kept plugging away in the goal scoring columns, faceoffs, defensive responsibilities, etc. But it affected his assist totals because he is a playmaker, simple tap in goals were not being scored sometimes even.
It was not until Mueller returned from injury and McGinn was acquired and Jones snapped out of his cold streak (with the help of McGinn) that Stastny began to get assists back. As evidenced by the fact he had more goals than assists until the 2012 calendar year turned at the start of the 2011-12 season.
I'm a fan of another team, how does this affect Stastny's value to Avs fans?
It doesn't change anything, he is still a 20g, 50a center in the eyes of Avs fans given the proper linemates. He is our only veteran center (most tenured Avalanche after Hejduk) on a team of youngsters. His contract is not a burden and his most frequent linemate the past two seasons; David Jones; was just re-signed to a 4-year deal. Stastny will be given a chance to prove his worth over the course of the 2012-13 season with a lineup filled with solid wingers and specifically extending his McGinn-Stastny-Jones line's success from 2012.
If you want to offer for him, solve our need for a top pairing defender (preferrably LH and under 27) OR offer a can't-miss scoring winger which also would play well with Duchene (Duchene likes to control the flow of offense by having the puck on his stick) and has the legs to keep up with him.
We do not need prospects. We do not need picks. We do not need your cap dumps. We do not care if one of your players scored as much or similarly to Stastny the past two years, because that's not how we value him. Read the post if you don't agree with that statement.
I thought I'd open up the thread with the right idea and provide an analytical argument in Stastny's favor. I'm almost out of time so I can't go into too much more depth right now, but I'm sure others will post some solid arguments in here and I can always link them in the OP for a quick TOC.
If you have a request for me to look into, I'll see what I can do later.
Career Numbers, Projected Career Numbers
[table="head;width=600]Season|GP|G|A|P|+/-|PIM|PPG|SHG|GWG|S|S%
2006-2007|82|28|50|78|4|42|11|0|6 |185|15.1%
2007-2008|66|24|47|71|22|24|3|0|4|138|17.4%
Proj:|82|30|58|88|27|30|4|0|5|171|17.4%
2008-2009|45|11|25|36|-9|22|7|0|2|118|9.3%
Proj:|82|20|46|66|-16|40|13|0|4|215|9.3%
2009-2010|81|20|59|79|2|50|9|0|2|199|10.1%
2010-2011|74|22|35|57|-7|56|4|1|3|181|12.2%
Proj:|82|24|39|63|-8|62|4|1|3|201|12.2%
2011 Portion|36|8|13|21|-9|30|0|0|1|87|9.2%
2011-2012|79|21|32|53|-8|34|7|0|2|190|11.1%
Proj:|82|22|33|55|-8|35|7|0|2|197|11.1%
2011 Portion|37|11|10|21|-6|14|4|0|0|93|11.8%
Career Total:|427|126|248|374|4|228|41|1|19|1011|12.5%
Career Avg:|71|21|41|62|1|38|7|0|3|169|12.5%
Career Proj/82|82|24|48|72|1|44|8|0|4|194|12.5%
[/table]
2011 Calendar Year and Adjusted Career Numbers without 2011
[table="head;width=600]Season|GP|G|A|P|+/-|PIM|PPG|SHG|GWG|S|S%
2011 Calendar|73|19|23|42|-15|44|4|0|1|180|10.6%
2011 Proj/82|82|22|27|48|-17|51|5|0|1|207|10.6%
Total W/O 2011:|354|107|225|332|19|184|37|1|18|831|12.9%
Proj W/O 2011:|82|25|52|77|4|43|9|0|4|192|12.9%
[/table]
The typical Stastny to X thread typically devolves into a series of statements such as; “He’s declined the past two years†“He hasn’t played like he did when he entered the league in a long time†“He’s a second line center†“He’s not that goodâ€. Given the lack of knowledge (aka, ignorance) regarding Staz, I did some math in the past which just required a quick update to the spreadsheet for his final 2011-12 numbers.
The key to this argument in my opinion revolves around the second table, Stastny's 2011 numbers. These numbers have logical grounding within both observational data and statistical data.
First, the obvious thing noted is that his goal totals did not decrease. Stastny is a career 20 goal scorer, never falling outside that range without severe injury hampering his season (2008-2009) but still projecting to 20+ goals.
So then, why is Stastny "declining"?
Because his assist totals have been down for two seasons now, while observationally he still has "it" with his passing game, making ridiculous plays look easy. The proof is based on his linemate TOI charts via Behindthenet.
Stastny's TOI and Linemate TOI% with him
[table="head;width=350]Season|Staz TOI|Linemate|TOI%|TOI|G|P
2010-11|1117.03|DAVIDJONES|40.7|455|27|45
||CHRISSTEWART|32.2|360|13|30
||MILANHEJDUK|27.3|305|22|56
||KEVINPORTER|21.4|239|14|25
2011-12|1205.33|DAVIDJONES|47.1|568|20|37
||MILANHEJDUK|34.6|417|14|37
||MATTDUCHENE|26.7|322|14|28
||T.J.GALIARDI|17|205|8|14
[/table]
During the 2010 portion of 2010-11 season, he was primarily playing on the Galiardi – Stastny – Stewart line, one which was extremely dominant. The first ~4 months of that season the Avalanche were actually the #1 scoring team in the entire league, and it coincided with their higher standings as well (briefly flirting with the division leading Canucks during their SCF season). The team was firing on all cylinders offensively. In fact, the trio combined for 18 goals, 37 points over the first 14 games of the season before Galiardi went down and then Stewart went down a couple weeks later.
It wasn’t long before Stastny began accepting rotations of Hejduk (30% TOI), Jones (44% TOI) and Porter (27.5% TOI) on his wings from January onward. Additional rotations included the likes of Ryan Stoa (50% TOI) and Brandon Yip (17% TOI). How did his numbers respond? 21 points in the final 36 games, or .58 P/G.
Likewise, he started 2011-12 on a Jones – Stastny – Kobasew line, atrocious to say the least. Galiardi found his way on there for a little while, Hejduk played there until around January/February and Duchene was rotated onto his left wing with Jones/Winnik playing the right side for awhile until Duchy got hurt.
However, around January/February Mueller returned and was placed with Stastny and Jones… the scoring started back up. Then McGinn was acquired and he played with Stastny and Jones, the line combined for 18 goals, 35 points in 17 games, harkening back to the days where Stewart was on Staz’s line.
Well, what does all of that mean? (tl;dr)
Stastny played with a bunch of linemates during the 2011 season which were either not scoring (Jones, Duchene), declining (Hejduk), scrubs (Porter, Stoa, Yip) or bottom 6 forwards (Winnik, Kobasew). This did not affect his game because Stastny kept plugging away in the goal scoring columns, faceoffs, defensive responsibilities, etc. But it affected his assist totals because he is a playmaker, simple tap in goals were not being scored sometimes even.
It was not until Mueller returned from injury and McGinn was acquired and Jones snapped out of his cold streak (with the help of McGinn) that Stastny began to get assists back. As evidenced by the fact he had more goals than assists until the 2012 calendar year turned at the start of the 2011-12 season.
I'm a fan of another team, how does this affect Stastny's value to Avs fans?
It doesn't change anything, he is still a 20g, 50a center in the eyes of Avs fans given the proper linemates. He is our only veteran center (most tenured Avalanche after Hejduk) on a team of youngsters. His contract is not a burden and his most frequent linemate the past two seasons; David Jones; was just re-signed to a 4-year deal. Stastny will be given a chance to prove his worth over the course of the 2012-13 season with a lineup filled with solid wingers and specifically extending his McGinn-Stastny-Jones line's success from 2012.
If you want to offer for him, solve our need for a top pairing defender (preferrably LH and under 27) OR offer a can't-miss scoring winger which also would play well with Duchene (Duchene likes to control the flow of offense by having the puck on his stick) and has the legs to keep up with him.
We do not need prospects. We do not need picks. We do not need your cap dumps. We do not care if one of your players scored as much or similarly to Stastny the past two years, because that's not how we value him. Read the post if you don't agree with that statement.