All-purpose Kessel thread (continued)

[Reddaye]

poli is also 65 ish

his own clock is ticking.

one never knows what his owner has to say in his ear about the teams direction.

True, true.

Like I said, I dunno for sure what these guys are really thinking. I'd just be surprised to see Jones dealt. Would I like it us to get him in a trade for Kessel? Of course!

Just trying to keep my expectations in check.

 

[Faltorvo]

That is very true. However, what if Colorado was willing to move a guy like Matt Duchene? Obviously this is totally a fantasy scenario, but not entirely out of the realm of possibility.

So now you get a younger center, who will have a guy like James Neal to play with. He's a little under the overall age curve, but that's not a bad thing.

Is this likely to happen? No, not really. I'd just be surprised to see Poile give up Jones for Kessel. I can see him potentially parting with a larger over all package before he includes Jones.

Like I said though; it's all just speculation. I dunno what these guys are thinking for certain.

The play offs this year will likely decide a lot. I also still consider San Jose a legitimate landing spot for Phil.

food for thought


Pierre Lebrun on TSN 1200 Radio:

“But believe me, I’ve talked to a number of GMs in the last 48 hours who said for sure they’d take Phil Kessel. But they’re some of the GMs who feel that on their team, he’d be better-surrounded. And that he would probably feel some kind of peer pressure to conform to the way their culture is and would be better for it.â€

David Poile on TSN 1050 Radio:

"I love Phil as a player, who wouldn't want what he produces in terms of his offense."

"I've read all the things about him being uncoachable. In my experinence, absolutely not is that the case at all. In terms of getting along with teammates, performing for the coach, playing his role, absolutely not."

 

[Reddaye]

food for thought


Pierre Lebrun on TSN 1200 Radio:

“But believe me, I’ve talked to a number of GMs in the last 48 hours who said for sure they’d take Phil Kessel. But they’re some of the GMs who feel that on their team, he’d be better-surrounded. And that he would probably feel some kind of peer pressure to conform to the way their culture is and would be better for it.â€

David Poile on TSN 1050 Radio:

"I love Phil as a player, who wouldn't want what he produces in terms of his offense."

"I've read all the things about him being uncoachable. In my experinence, absolutely not is that the case at all. In terms of getting along with teammates, performing for the coach, playing his role, absolutely not."

The history with Phil and Poile is certainly there. It's well documented.

It's no real surprise that a lot of GMs would, in LeBrun's own words, be willing to "take" Phil Kessel. The portion of interest to us as Leaf fans is: at what price?

 

[Faltorvo]

The history with Phil and Poile is certainly there. It's well documented.

It's no real surprise that a lot of GMs would, in LeBrun's own words, be willing to "take" Phil Kessel. The portion of interest to us as Leaf fans is: at what price?

well my personal price is Jones.

when one adds in the value to nashville for taking their best shot at the cup for say the next 5 years , added playoff revs.

yup Jones.

 

[Trapper]

True, true.

Like I said, I dunno for sure what these guys are really thinking. I'd just be surprised to see Jones dealt. Would I like it us to get him in a trade for Kessel? Of course!

Just trying to keep my expectations in check.

First of all, Kessel has a list of 8 teams he can be traded to. (Maybe he expands that, I don't know.)
Of all the teams out there, it is reasonable to say that only a decent team already capable of making the playoffs would deal for him. Teams like Buffalo/Arizona are most likely out. Teams that also have most of their cap commited to their own stars, (Getzlaf/Perry) or teams with cap problems (Chicago/Boston) would be out.
So out of 29 other teams, I see the best fit for Kessel as:
Carolina (pending Semin cap dump, they should rebuild but still have the Staal brothers)
Columbus (perhaps)
Florida
Minnesota
NYI
NYR (depending on St. Louis resigning)
Nashville
SJ
Winnipeg
I see these as the most realistic trade destinations based on where the teams are. About 9 teams for a list of 8 on the Kessel trade front.

 

[Trapper]

well my personal price is Jones.

when one adds in the value to nashville for taking their best shot at the cup for say the next 5 years , added playoff revs.

yup Jones.

Nothing wrong with your personal price. However, I would never trade Jones for Kessel. Nor would I trade Barkov/Ekblad etc. etc. I'd just do without and with the age of the above mentioned players, work on drafting my own winger. Much easier to find a quality winger drafting 12-24 than a center/D.

 

[Vexed]

Nothing wrong with your personal price. However, I would never trade Jones for Kessel. Nor would I trade Barkov/Ekblad etc. etc. I'd just do without and with the age of the above mentioned players, work on drafting my own winger. Much easier to find a quality winger drafting 12-24 than a center/D.

It all depends on where your franchise is and what your franchise has. Sometimes you need to trade youth for finished products close to your cores age so that you can make a push when your best players are prime.

Nashville is very close to this position. The only question will be if they calculate that the risk to the long term is worth the reward of a maybe cup now. For some clubs its easy to go for it but for clubs like Nashville a future rebuild could be trouble so sometimes they settle for just being good and never go for it really

 

[johnny_rudeboy]

The value for Kessel, what I think we are asking for is a young roster player, a prospect and a 1st. That is his value. Then it depends on how high that 1st is (or potential of it anyway) or how good the roster player and the prospect are. The more valuable the prospect is the lower value will the roster player have and vice versa. Could also be two young roster players and no prospects or two prospects and no roster players.

Lets say Florida wants him and they offer up Huberdeau as the roster player. He by him self have so much talent that we can not expect the prospect coming back to be of any high end quality. And if they also are sending a 1st our way that will have some kind of top 10 protection. But lets say the miss the playoffs and they dont win the lottery and their first ends up being the 12th overall. That is a pick we should be willing to trade Kessel for that allows them to keep Huberdeau. They would however need to send something else back and I would be willing to make the deal bigger by adding Gardiner to Kessel and accept 12th overall + Gudbranson + B-level prospect.

Now I dont think Florida is that great of a trading partner since their idea is to add Kessel to their young core with out giving up on any of the core players. But we would want one of Huberdau or Gudbranson coming back.

Now lets say Islanders are after Kessel and they dont have a 1st this year and are perhaps not interested in dealing away next years first so that they dont end up in a situation next season as the current one (a situation we are all to familiar with...). But instead of a 1st and a roster player they offer us MDC and a lesser prospect. Value wise that is equal to a young roster player, a prospect and a 1st since MDC was a 5th overall pick last year and is most likely NHL ready.

Islander I think would make a perfect trading partner. And even more so if they can give us a top prospect like MDC instead of a 1st. That means the deal dont have to take place before/during the draft but we could wait until Kessels 2nd year of the contract kicks in and he is to be paid $10m dollars. If we pay out that in a lump sum then trade him they will get him for free that year and the contracts worth will be $42m for 7 years. They did offer Vanek a contract rumoured to be around $50m for 7 years. For Islanders I reckon that would be a deal to good to turn down and we could most likely get Reinhart/Pulock included in the deal under those circumstances.

Adding Dal Colle and Reinhart to Nylander, Rielly and our -15 pick will give us a great foundation for our rebuild.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I think Kessel for Jones would be a fair trade. People were earlier posting stuff like Kessel for Jones + Fiala + a 1st round pick which is obviously dreaming. I've said all along I would take Jones for Kessel straight up.

My personal preference would be to get back 1 elite piece as opposed to a grab bag of goodies. It would be a shame to trade Kessel for what will amount to a 3rd line player and a #4 d-man down the road.

I'd still like to hear from those people who want him gone no matter what. If all we can get at this moment is say the 19th overall pick, is that OK with you haters? Me personally, no way do I do that, I'd rather keep him. I'm willing to hold on for a long time if that's what it takes to get a fair price. And I still think there's a chance that the right coach can get him to fly right in which case his value goes way up!

 

[Gary Nylund]

The value for Kessel, what I think we are asking for is a young roster player, a prospect and a 1st. That is his value. Then it depends on how high that 1st is (or potential of it anyway) or how good the roster player and the prospect are. The more valuable the prospect is the lower value will the roster player have and vice versa. Could also be two young roster players and no prospects or two prospects and no roster players.

Lets say Florida wants him and they offer up Huberdeau as the roster player. He by him self have so much talent that we can not expect the prospect coming back to be of any high end quality. And if they also are sending a 1st our way that will have some kind of top 10 protection. But lets say the miss the playoffs and they dont win the lottery and their first ends up being the 12th overall. That is a pick we should be willing to trade Kessel for that allows them to keep Huberdeau. They would however need to send something else back and I would be willing to make the deal bigger by adding Gardiner to Kessel and accept 12th overall + Gudbranson + B-level prospect.

Now I dont think Florida is that great of a trading partner since their idea is to add Kessel to their young core with out giving up on any of the core players. But we would want one of Huberdau or Gudbranson coming back.

Now lets say Islanders are after Kessel and they dont have a 1st this year and are perhaps not interested in dealing away next years first so that they dont end up in a situation next season as the current one (a situation we are all to familiar with...). But instead of a 1st and a roster player they offer us MDC and a lesser prospect. Value wise that is equal to a young roster player, a prospect and a 1st since MDC was a 5th overall pick last year and is most likely NHL ready.

Islander I think would make a perfect trading partner. And even more so if they can give us a top prospect like MDC instead of a 1st. That means the deal dont have to take place before/during the draft but we could wait until Kessels 2nd year of the contract kicks in and he is to be paid $10m dollars. If we pay out that in a lump sum then trade him they will get him for free that year and the contracts worth will be $42m for 7 years. They did offer Vanek a contract rumoured to be around $50m for 7 years. For Islanders I reckon that would be a deal to good to turn down and we could most likely get Reinhart/Pulock included in the deal under those circumstances.

Adding Dal Colle and Reinhart to Nylander, Rielly and our -15 pick will give us a great foundation for our rebuild.

Do you really think we could that much back in a trade? I don't see it myself.

 

[Trapper]

I think Kessel for Jones would be a fair trade. People were earlier posting stuff like Kessel for Jones + Fiala + a 1st round pick which is obviously dreaming. I've said all along I would take Jones for Kessel straight up.

My personal preference would be to get back 1 elite piece as opposed to a grab bag of goodies. It would be a shame to trade Kessel for what will amount to a 3rd line player and a #4 d-man down the road.

I'd still like to hear from those people who want him gone no matter what. If all we can get at this moment is say the 19th overall pick, is that OK with you haters? Me personally, no way do I do that, I'd rather keep him. I'm willing to hold on for a long time if that's what it takes to get a fair price. And I still think there's a chance that the right coach can get him to fly right in which case his value goes way up!

Nash/Seguin/Ryan/Spezza did not return 1 elite piece.
I think we can return some good pieces but not what people are expecting in Jones.

 

[HockeyCA]

I think Kessel for Jones would be a fair trade. People were earlier posting stuff like Kessel for Jones + Fiala + a 1st round pick which is obviously dreaming. I've said all along I would take Jones for Kessel straight up.

My personal preference would be to get back 1 elite piece as opposed to a grab bag of goodies. It would be a shame to trade Kessel for what will amount to a 3rd line player and a #4 d-man down the road.

I'd still like to hear from those people who want him gone no matter what. If all we can get at this moment is say the 19th overall pick, is that OK with you haters? Me personally, no way do I do that, I'd rather keep him. I'm willing to hold on for a long time if that's what it takes to get a fair price. And I still think there's a chance that the right coach can get him to fly right in which case his value goes way up!

And what happens if this is the Kessel you get for the remainder of his contract, or at least until he is dealt to another team? Is it just a coincidence that Kessel's production started to nose dive so soon after Carlyle and his off the rush offence was scrapped in favor of something that requires at least some defensive accountability?

It is true that Kessel's value is lower now than it was at the beginning of the season. But just like saying his production might rebound, it's also possible that the player has already started to trend downward, or just feels like not putting in a consistent effort on a cellar dweller. Either way, and I think it might be a bit of both, neither is a good thing. The latter just reinforces his reputation as a lazy and uncoachable teammate. The Leafs I think would be wise to move him at the first opportunity to receive 75-80 cents on the dollar. Hopefully that allows them to escape having to eat any of his massive contract.

 

[4thline]

The value for Kessel, what I think we are asking for is a young roster player, a prospect and a 1st. That is his value. Then it depends on how high that 1st is (or potential of it anyway) or how good the roster player and the prospect are. The more valuable the prospect is the lower value will the roster player have and vice versa. Could also be two young roster players and no prospects or two prospects and no roster players.

Lets say Florida wants him and they offer up Huberdeau as the roster player. He by him self have so much talent that we can not expect the prospect coming back to be of any high end quality. And if they also are sending a 1st our way that will have some kind of top 10 protection. But lets say the miss the playoffs and they dont win the lottery and their first ends up being the 12th overall. That is a pick we should be willing to trade Kessel for that allows them to keep Huberdeau. They would however need to send something else back and I would be willing to make the deal bigger by adding Gardiner to Kessel and accept 12th overall + Gudbranson + B-level prospect.

Now I dont think Florida is that great of a trading partner since their idea is to add Kessel to their young core with out giving up on any of the core players. But we would want one of Huberdau or Gudbranson coming back.

Now lets say Islanders are after Kessel and they dont have a 1st this year and are perhaps not interested in dealing away next years first so that they dont end up in a situation next season as the current one (a situation we are all to familiar with...). But instead of a 1st and a roster player they offer us MDC and a lesser prospect. Value wise that is equal to a young roster player, a prospect and a 1st since MDC was a 5th overall pick last year and is most likely NHL ready.

Islander I think would make a perfect trading partner. And even more so if they can give us a top prospect like MDC instead of a 1st. That means the deal dont have to take place before/during the draft but we could wait until Kessels 2nd year of the contract kicks in and he is to be paid $10m dollars. If we pay out that in a lump sum then trade him they will get him for free that year and the contracts worth will be $42m for 7 years. They did offer Vanek a contract rumoured to be around $50m for 7 years. For Islanders I reckon that would be a deal to good to turn down and we could most likely get Reinhart/Pulock included in the deal under those circumstances.

Adding Dal Colle and Reinhart to Nylander, Rielly and our -15 pick will give us a great foundation for our rebuild.

If this trade is happening draft day (Florida) and that pick is in the 9-14 range I think that if the Leafs really like someone still on the board they make that trade with the pick as the centre piece with lesser +'s than Gudranson even. Petrovic, Trochek, Hawryluk etc, expecially if there's lesser lights in FLorida's system that Hunter/Dubas/ Nonis really like

 

[Trapper]

If this trade is happening draft day (Florida) and that pick is in the 9-14 range I think that if the Leafs really like someone still on the board they make that trade with the pick as the centre piece with lesser +'s than Gudranson even. Petrovic, Trochek, Hawryluk etc, expecially if there's lesser lights in FLorida's system that Hunter/Dubas/ Nonis really like

On draft day, moving Kessel you could come away with a combo of Strome/Marner and Provorov or a Zacha/Barzal, or any combination, you'd have to jump on it.

 

[Faltorvo]

First of all, Kessel has a list of 8 teams he can be traded to. (Maybe he expands that, I don't know.)
Of all the teams out there, it is reasonable to say that only a decent team already capable of making the playoffs would deal for him. Teams like Buffalo/Arizona are most likely out. Teams that also have most of their cap commited to their own stars, (Getzlaf/Perry) or teams with cap problems (Chicago/Boston) would be out.
So out of 29 other teams, I see the best fit for Kessel as:
Carolina (pending Semin cap dump, they should rebuild but still have the Staal brothers)
Columbus (perhaps)
Florida
Minnesota
NYI
NYR (depending on St. Louis resigning)
Nashville
SJ
Winnipeg
I see these as the most realistic trade destinations based on where the teams are. About 9 teams for a list of 8 on the Kessel trade front.

huh?

anaheim is in GREAT cap position

they only need 4 contracts inked and have 18 million in cap to do that , 21.5m if they send stoner the other way.

 

[Reddaye]

huh?

anaheim is in GREAT cap position

they only need 4 contracts inked and have 18 million in cap to do that , 21.5m if they send stoner the other way.

Anaheim has an internal cap. They're not a cap team.

 

[Gary Nylund]

And what happens if this is the Kessel you get for the remainder of his contract, or at least until he is dealt to another team? Is it just a coincidence that Kessel's production started to nose dive so soon after Carlyle and his off the rush offence was scrapped in favor of something that requires at least some defensive accountability?

It is true that Kessel's value is lower now than it was at the beginning of the season. But just like saying his production might rebound, it's also possible that the player has already started to trend downward, or just feels like not putting in a consistent effort on a cellar dweller. Either way, and I think it might be a bit of both, neither is a good thing. The latter just reinforces his reputation as a lazy and uncoachable teammate. The Leafs I think would be wise to move him at the first opportunity to receive 75-80 cents on the dollar. Hopefully that allows them to escape having to eat any of his massive contract.

You're absolutely right, it's a risk and I can absolutely see the logic behind taking 80 cents on the dollar today. I'm not sure exactly what his value is - what does 80c on the dollar represent right now? That's what it boils down to for me. If 80c means Fiala and a lte 1st round pick, I say no thanks, I'll take my chances with Phil.

 

[4thline]

On draft day, moving Kessel you could come away with a combo of Strome/Marner and Provorov or a Zacha/Barzal, or any combination, you'd have to jump on it.

Exactly, and who knows who all Leafs management would put in that second group. I think that deal would be made with Florida on the clock, and Toronto is doing it because they want someone specifically.

 

[Faltorvo]

Nothing wrong with your personal price. However, I would never trade Jones for Kessel. Nor would I trade Barkov/Ekblad etc. etc. I'd just do without and with the age of the above mentioned players, work on drafting my own winger. Much easier to find a quality winger drafting 12-24 than a center/D.

well ignore the age of poli,weber,rinne and their strong cup window

i won't, because i live in the real world

there are some GMs and especially owners that want to win a cup in their time.

history has shown over and over again organisations take their home run cut when they have a fastball groved to them.

 

[Trapper]

well ignore the age of poli,weber,rinne and their strong cup window

i won't, because i live in the real world

there are some GMs and especially owners that want to win a cup in their time.

history has shown over and over again organisations take their home run cut when they have a fastball groved to them.

There's nothing that says he doesn't want Kessel. Nothing at all. By all means, ask for Jones. Ask for Jones every day. I just don't see it. Kudos to the Leafs if it happens. I won't pencil Jones into the lineup however until it does.

 

[johnny_rudeboy]

Do you really think we could that much back in a trade? I don't see it myself.

In the scenario that we pay $10m on his contract I reckon we could get that kind of return. Most likely the Islanders would want a solid prospect back from us since they are trading away two 5th overall players who is close to NHL ready. But they know what they get in Kessel and that is the kind of player they have been trying to get for some time. They would have Tavares - Okposo, Strome - Kessel as the core pieces in their top six. And if they dont want to fall back into missing the playoffs again they need to add quality to what they have.

Even with out MDC and Reinhart their prospect pool would still be strong but they would get a star forward that could help them getting into the playoffs regularly. That is always important but even more so now when they are about to move to Brooklyn. I reckon Kessel would do well for them and add the kind of magic casual fans would want to pay to see. Adding everything together, the age of their team, their situation of finally having a good team, them moving, them trying to get Vanek and us rebuilding. We have Rielly who grow up playing with Reinhart and MDC who is from the area and I reckon considering his family situation would love to remain in the area. It is just the perfect match. Lets hope Snow and Nonis see it the same way as I do

And they just signed Leddy to a 7 year deal and I reckon they will try their hardest to resign Boychuck as well. And considering they probably have the deepest group of young defenseman in the league they can "spare" one.

 

[Faltorvo]

It all depends on where your franchise is and what your franchise has. Sometimes you need to trade youth for finished products close to your cores age so that you can make a push when your best players are prime.

Nashville is very close to this position. The only question will be if they calculate that the risk to the long term is worth the reward of a maybe cup now. For some clubs its easy to go for it but for clubs like Nashville a future rebuild could be trouble so sometimes they settle for just being good and never go for it really

it's not just a cup now move

kessel is only 27 and under contract control for 7 years.

getting kessel for them is a long game play, 5/6 years of solid cup contention.

 

[Mess]

Now lets say Islanders are after Kessel and they dont have a 1st this year and are perhaps not interested in dealing away next years first so that they dont end up in a situation next season as the current one (a situation we are all to familiar with...). But instead of a 1st and a roster player they offer us MDC and a lesser prospect. Value wise that is equal to a young roster player, a prospect and a 1st since MDC was a 5th overall pick last year and is most likely NHL ready.

Islander I think would make a perfect trading partner. And even more so if they can give us a top prospect like MDC instead of a 1st. That means the deal dont have to take place before/during the draft but we could wait until Kessels 2nd year of the contract kicks in and he is to be paid $10m dollars. If we pay out that in a lump sum then trade him they will get him for free that year and the contracts worth will be $42m for 7 years. They did offer Vanek a contract rumoured to be around $50m for 7 years. For Islanders I reckon that would be a deal to good to turn down and we could most likely get Reinhart/Pulock included in the deal under those circumstances.

Adding Dal Colle and Reinhart to Nylander, Rielly and our -15 pick will give us a great foundation for our rebuild.

The Dal Cole and Reinhart package is the one If suggested and also believe might be the best option.

Two points to emphasize here. Kessel is paid $10 mil next year (as he was this year in real $). However July 1st 2015 Leafs owe him a $4 mil signing bonus.. So if you take $64 mil total $$ owed and -$10 mil (from 2014-15) & -$4 mil (from 2015-16) and trade Kessel on July 2nd to NYI it = $50 mil owed X 7 years = $7.14 mil average.

Also NYI are moving to Brooklyn and a new Arena and changing a fan base location.. What better way to bring in Kessel to play wing for JT for what amounts to spare parts (Michael Dal Cole & Griffin Reinhart) who had little impact this year?. Might be much easier to sell season tickets after you add Kessel to the on ice product without subtacting from last years?.

PS. Griffin Reinhart and Morgan Rielly are best buddies dating back to playing pre-junior teammates together in Vancouver area. They would be a perfect pairing at the NHL level.

After all, when we’re talking about West Vancouver’s Hollyburn Country Club products Morgan Rielly and Griffin Reinhart – the 2009 co-winners – we’re talking about a pair of defenceman who were not only teammates, but actually defence partners for the better part of the formative years of their minor hockey careers. - See more at: http://hockeynow.ca/minor-hockey/33...ayer-of-the-year-winners#sthash.bPh8fuIS.dpuf

 

[Gary Nylund]

In the scenario that we pay $10m on his contract I reckon we could get that kind of return. Most likely the Islanders would want a solid prospect back from us since they are trading away two 5th overall players who is close to NHL ready. But they know what they get in Kessel and that is the kind of player they have been trying to get for some time. They would have Tavares - Okposo, Strome - Kessel as the core pieces in their top six. And if they dont want to fall back into missing the playoffs again they need to add quality to what they have.

Even with out MDC and Reinhart their prospect pool would still be strong but they would get a star forward that could help them getting into the playoffs regularly. That is always important but even more so now when they are about to move to Brooklyn. I reckon Kessel would do well for them and add the kind of magic casual fans would want to pay to see. Adding everything together, the age of their team, their situation of finally having a good team, them moving, them trying to get Vanek and us rebuilding. We have Rielly who grow up playing with Reinhart and MDC who is from the area and I reckon considering his family situation would love to remain in the area. It is just the perfect match. Lets hope Snow and Nonis see it the same way as I do

And they just signed Leddy to a 7 year deal and I reckon they will try their hardest to resign Boychuck as well. And considering they probably have the deepest group of young defenseman in the league they can "spare" one.

Were you suggesting a 10m lump sum payment? I thought shenanigans like that weren't allowed. Or maybe I misunderstood.

 

[Faltorvo]

Anaheim has an internal cap. They're not a cap team.

do they now?

and what is that internal #?

last i checked they are only running a couple of million under the cap