All Purpose Analytics and Extended Stats Discussion

[g00n]

I think stylistically he's probably a bit different this year but the output is similar to me.

It's not a matter of "unpopular opinions". It's a matter of the preponderance of evidence from actual informed and involved parties vs some amateur outside stat analysis that attempts to contradict the inside information. Not all opinions carry equal weight, and stats don't tell the whole story.

But speaking of stats....

Kuzy also has 1pt in the last 5 games. In a 26 game sample that's significant. Over his first 21 games he failed to register a point only 6 times. His longest pointless stretch was just 2 games, and it happened once.

His recent "output" is going to get a pass for now based on the first 21 games and the team's overall fortunes. That could change if the team slumps or if Kuzy fails to pick up the pace again.

 

[twabby]

I don't know that quotes from coaches and stuff really count as a preponderance of evidence. They're always going to talk up their players when the opportunity is right! It doesn't mean they're (a) being sincere, or (b) correct.

But speaking of quotes from experts, here's one that I saw the other day that had me nodding my head:



I think Peter Laviolette would do well do consider how this quote has applied to Evgeny Kuznetsov and others around the league, and apply it to Connor McMichael.

 

[g00n]

I don't know that quotes from coaches and stuff really count as a preponderance of evidence. They're always going to talk up their players when the opportunity is right! It doesn't mean they're (a) being sincere, or (b) correct.

But speaking of quotes from experts, here's one that I saw the other day that had me nodding my head:



I think Peter Laviolette would do well do consider how this quote has applied to Evgeny Kuznetsov and others around the league, and apply it to Connor McMichael.

These are strawmen and red herrings.

Coaches being critical of a player publicly is not the same as coaches paying lip service to a player with false media praise. Kuzy was disciplined and called out by the coach and FO, iirc, and he himself said he needed to step up his game.

I see this as you trying to justify your analysis from last year because you're worried that analysis might be wrong, which calls into question the stat itself. If you can acknowledge that the stats aren't perfect (as you sometimes do when cornered) then there's no issue in just admitting Kuzy started this year better than he played last year.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

At a base level, you earn your minutes and help make your own success….so yeah….it’s the “earn” part that was missing, but you already know this….you just can’t let it go.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

These are strawmen and red herrings.

Coaches being critical of a player publicly is not the same as coaches paying lip service to a player with false media praise. Kuzy was disciplined and called out by the coach and FO, iirc, and he himself said he needed to step up his game.

I see this as you trying to justify your analysis from last year because you're worried that analysis might be wrong, which calls into question the stat itself. If you can acknowledge that the stats aren't perfect (as you sometimes do when cornered) then there's no issue in just admitting Kuzy started this year better than he played last year.

I don’t get it….the guy put in the time this off-season working his ass off more than usual, he came into the season in top form and is performing at an elite level we have not seen since the Cup run.

This isn’t the guy from last season, just getting more ice time. To me suggesting that, just shits all over the effort Kuzy put in this off-season. All in a quest to try to win an argument long ago lost lol….

 

[kicksavedave]

I mean, Lavi was on video saying the credit goes to Kuzy 100% for all the work he put in.

The fancy numbers may look similar but the fancy numbers don't always tell the whole story. The eye test however is unmistakable, he's playing better and playing harder (Kuzy cares) this year vs last, and Lavi specifically says he put in the work to make this happen.

He may very well have put in work last offseason too (summer between TR and PL), but he got Covid twice for cripes sake, its not easy to sustain a high level when you are recovering from that shit.

Finally, lets have significant debate about the value of fancy numbers vs actual production (haha lets NOT). He's currently tied for 11th in the league in pts.... last year he was tied for 159th. Ovi's production is also way up, which is a result of both them them playing better.

 

[traparatus]

I mean, Lavi was on video saying the credit goes to Kuzy 100% for all the work he put in.

The fancy numbers may look similar but the fancy numbers don't always tell the whole story. The eye test however is unmistakable, he's playing better and playing harder (Kuzy cares) this year vs last, and Lavi specifically says he put in the work to make this happen.

A well known property of eye test.

 

[kicksavedave]

A well known property of eye test.

Some people's eyes

 

[twabby]

I mean, Lavi was on video saying the credit goes to Kuzy 100% for all the work he put in.

The fancy numbers may look similar but the fancy numbers don't always tell the whole story. The eye test however is unmistakable, he's playing better and playing harder (Kuzy cares) this year vs last, and Lavi specifically says he put in the work to make this happen.

He may very well have put in work last offseason too (summer between TR and PL), but he got Covid twice for cripes sake, its not easy to sustain a high level when you are recovering from that shit.

Finally, lets have significant debate about the value of fancy numbers vs actual production (haha lets NOT). He's currently tied for 11th in the league in pts.... last year he was tied for 159th. Ovi's production is also way up, which is a result of both them them playing better.

I'd say the effort was there last year as well as this year, so I guess I disagree that the eye-test is unmistakable. What better indicator is there of his effort level increasing than his vast improvement in defense between 19-20 and 20-21? His defensive numbers were very good last year after several years of being at or near the bottom of the league. Unfortunately, defensive metrics don't show up anywhere in a simple box score so his massive improvement defensively kind of flew under the radar. If there was a simple box-score stat called "Defensive Rank" and it was displayed next to every player's photo on NHL.com like they do with goals and assists, and we saw that he jumped from the 1st percentile to the 80th percentile, would that sway some people's opinions of his play last year? I think so.

Criticize him for his off-ice issues, I guess. But those didn't impact his on-ice performance. Maybe he looks different stylistically this year, but in terms of his production and more importantly his impact on the team's production nothing has significantly changed between last year and this year aside from him getting more TOI.

I'm actually quite interested in hearing how people's eye tests explain the similarities between this year's metrics vs. last year's. How do you explain his point rate being similar? How do you explain his team's goal differential while he's on the ice being similar? How do you explain his isolated impacts being similar?

 

[twabby]

I see this as you trying to justify your analysis from last year because you're worried that analysis might be wrong, which calls into question the stat itself.

Now if you'll excuse me, I have a "I was also right about Nick Jensen" post I'm currently drafting up.

 

[g00n]

Now if you'll excuse me, I have a "I was also right about Nick Jensen" post I'm currently drafting up.

The eye test tells me he's really saying "Guac".

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I'd say the effort was there last year as well as this year, so I guess I disagree that the eye-test is unmistakable. What better indicator is there of his effort level increasing than his vast improvement in defense between 19-20 and 20-21? His defensive numbers were very good last year after several years of being at or near the bottom of the league. Unfortunately, defensive metrics don't show up anywhere in a simple box score so his massive improvement defensively kind of flew under the radar. If there was a simple box-score stat called "Defensive Rank" and it was displayed next to every player's photo on NHL.com like they do with goals and assists, and we saw that he jumped from the 1st percentile to the 80th percentile, would that sway some people's opinions of his play last year? I think so.

Criticize him for his off-ice issues, I guess. But those didn't impact his on-ice performance. Maybe he looks different stylistically this year, but in terms of his production and more importantly his impact on the team's production nothing has significantly changed between last year and this year aside from him getting more TOI.

I'm actually quite interested in hearing how people's eye tests explain the similarities between this year's metrics vs. last year's. How do you explain his point rate being similar? How do you explain his team's goal differential while he's on the ice being similar? How do you explain his isolated impacts being similar?

Nobody is holding a thing against Kuzy from last year I don’t think…..he screwed up, but he appears to have made amends by putting in the time this off-season….people notice that stuff.

As I said last year, tilting the ice is great….but the game is won on actual real production and he’s delivering where it matters most, the scoresheet.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

The eye test tells me he's really saying "Guac".

I was thinking Guam….

 

[g00n]

I was thinking Guam….

It's dinner time and I'm hungry. Never tasted Guam.

 

[kicksavedave]

Criticize him for his off-ice issues, I guess. But those didn't impact his on-ice performance. Maybe he looks different stylistically this year, but in terms of his production and more importantly his impact on the team's production nothing has significantly changed between last year and this year aside from him getting more TOI.

First, I didn't criticize him for off ice behavior apart from when he got suspended for being late to a "function". But to say him having covid didn't impact his on ice performance is incongruous with his own words - he said he could hardly breath after his first covid bout. He's scoring at roughly the same rate per minute, but he's playing more minutes, for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is, he's healthy this year (no Covid) so he can be double shifted and he can play the PK (only ~1min/game) without wearing his ass out, unlike last year.

I would be really interested to see P/60 over time last year to see how he produced right after coming back from his two covid stints. My recollection, which is admittedly shitty, is that he had nice long slumps right after his covid stints and played better right before them, but my memory is not to be trusted here. Would love to see that graphed.

 

[kicksavedave]

Nobody is holding a thing against Kuzy from last year I don’t think…..he screwed up, but he appears to have made amends by putting in the time this off-season….people notice that stuff.

As I said last year, tilting the ice is great….but the game is won on actual real production and he’s delivering where it matters most, the scoresheet.

To be fair to Kuz and Twabby, his scoring per 60 is very close last year vs this... I think that's Twabby's main point - when he played he played well. That he's playing more this year is the reason for his increased actual production, which is very much true. The reason he's playing more this year though, is largely to his credit, for doing all the things he needed to do to get more trust from Lavi, indicated by him getting PK time even if that's only ~1 minute per game. But its also due to him not having covid this year.

 

[txpd]

I was thinking Guam….

This time of year Guam doesn't sound so bad

 

[txpd]

Now if you'll excuse me, I have a "I was also right about Nick Jensen" post I'm currently drafting up.

Really dude, no matter what the level of arguing is here there is no reason to inject that guy into our group.

 

[g00n]

Kuzy is playing more because his overall game has been better and Lavi trusts him more, so the minutes dilute the point and goals per 60 this year.

But he's also slowed down the goal scoring pace considerably after the first 7 games of the season, and that goal scoring was the main complaint about his stats last year.

Last season he was on an 18 goal per 82 games pace. OK but not great and not what you expect from a guy of his talent/salary/position (1C with Ovie, $7.8M cap hit).

He started out hot this year (5 goals in the first 7 games for an unsustainable 58 goal pace) but over the last 19 games he's scored just 3 goals which is a 12 goal pace for 82 games.

So I'd say this whole premise that the stats are the same is being massaged and steered to slant the discussion.

 

[txpd]

To be fair to Kuz and Twabby, his scoring per 60 is very close last year vs this... I think that's Twabby's main point - when he played he played well. That he's playing more this year is the reason for his increased actual production, which is very much true. The reason he's playing more this year though, is largely to his credit, for doing all the things he needed to do to get more trust from Lavi, indicated by him getting PK time even if that's only ~1 minute per game. But its also due to him not having covid this year.

View attachment 488897

No. He is saying that this Kuzy is last season's Kuzy that is getting more ice time. Thats just a load. This season's Kuzy is at a whole different level.

 

[txpd]

Kuzy is playing more because his overall game has been better and Lavi trusts him more, so the minutes dilute the point and goals per 60 this year.

But he's also slowed down the goal scoring pace considerably after the first 7 games of the season, and that goal scoring was the main complaint about his stats last year.

Last season he was on an 18 goal per 82 games pace. OK but not great and not what you expect from a guy of his talent/salary/position (1C with Ovie, $7.8M cap hit).

He started out hot this year (5 goals in the first 7 games for an unsustainable 58 goal pace) but over the last 19 games he's scored just 3 goals which is a 12 goal pace for 82 games.

So I'd say this whole premise that the stats are the same is being massaged and steered to slant the discussion.

Well...you could make a case that last season's Kuzy is starting to return after a good start. One of those 3 goals was the dunk that Carlson gave him.

 

[g00n]

No. He is saying that this Kuzy is last season's Kuzy that is getting more ice time. Thats just a load. This season's Kuzy is at a whole different level.

I'd say Lavi is more accepting of a slower goal scoring pace so long as the overall game is solid, for now. Kuzy Kares and he's not being sheltered/benched.

If the secondary scoring dries up and/or the team starts losing then Kuzy may be leaned on again for more of a goalscoring contribution and the debate about getting to 30 goals/yr will start back up...if it hasn't already.

 

[txpd]

I'd say Lavi is more accepting of a slower goal scoring pace so long as the overall game is solid, for now. Kuzy Kares and he's not being sheltered/benched.

If the secondary scoring dries up and/or the team starts losing then Kuzy may be leaned on again for more of a goalscoring contribution and the debate about getting to 30 goals/yr will start back up...if it hasn't already.

Kuzy's defensive game is completely different. So long as he does that he is going to play because that is the most important part. Kuzy is in a run of games were the old pass on a breakaway Kuzy shows up. His details and responsibility remain while he does that.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Absolutely he’s cooled off….peaks and valleys are to be expected….just not all valleys.

That said he can still do all the other stuff right and well during the occasional production dry spell.

 

[twabby]

Kuzy is playing more because his overall game has been better and Lavi trusts him more, so the minutes dilute the point and goals per 60 this year.

There's no evidence to suggest that increased TOI dilutes point and goal rates. At least none that I have seen.

Also, given Backstrom's absence and Eller and Dowd's sporadic absences it seems like Laviolette didn't really have much of a choice but to play Kuznetsov more this season. His hand was forced, and as I mentioned I am quite interested to see what happens with Kuznetsov's TOI once all of the centers are healthy.