All Purpose Analytics and Extended Stats Discussion

[g00n]

I wasn't just talking about people here, I'm talking about Laviolette, I'm talking about the beat writers (Tarik El Bashir in particular who noted that Schultz had a "solid" first season in Washington), I'm talking about fans that I interact with elsewhere who thought Schultz had a good season overall. So yes, I think a lot of people is accurate.

Of course I do not have access to Peter Laviolette or have him in my rolodex, so unfortunately I cannot ping him and see what his thinking was. Given the information I have, in my opinion he made a pretty big mistake by either not limiting Schultz's minutes, or not scratching him completely given a perfectly good option on the bench to replace him.

Here's a rolling 10-game xGD graph:

View attachment 447851

So he did start out pretty well, but tailed off quite substantially toward the end. Of course a lot of his uptick is playing alongside Dmitry Orlov, who is an excellent playdriver.

More concerning than his first year in DC is his multiyear trend and his isolated impacts over the years, which have been trending down:

View attachment 447853

Maybe it's because of injuries, but do we really expect this guy to have a healthy season next year?

That's a lot of "yeah, but", however you did prove my point that he was very good in the first half but fell off in the 2nd. So it's possible he was dealing with something and Lavi decided to roll with him, hoping for a return to earlier form. Coaches do that sometimes. Maybe he thought 70% Schultz was better than 100% TVR, who knows. I'd seen enough of him after only a few games vs BOS.

 

[twabby]

As it stands now, here is an estimate of the team going into this season based on the TopDownHockey WAR model:

This is based on the following lineup:

Ovechkin-Backstrom-Oshie
Mantha-Kuznetsov-Wilson
Sheary-Eller-Sprong
Hagelin-Dowd-Hathaway

Orlov-Carlson
Kempny-Schultz
TVR-Jensen

Samsonov
Vanecek

Goaltending is the obvious red flag, but aside from like Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy it's hard to rely on goaltending being reliable year in and year out. If necessary acquiring a goaltender is something I'd consider midseason.

But more importantly the things that stick out are the weakness of the top 6 forwards in general and the top 4 defensemen. Perhaps they can look for a Kempny replacement but really it starts and ends with Carlson and Schultz. They've decided to stick with Carlson, for better or worse, but I still think it's possible they could move on from Schultz. TVR over Schultz is such a big improvement, almost a full win better. It needs to happen. And Fehervary over Kempny doesn't change much, mainly because Kempny is basically a replacement level player. Of course most of this is moot if Carlson struggles again next season.

As expected, the top 6 forwards for Washington are quite weak and they are expected to once again be carried by their depth as they were last year. There's nothing wrong with having great depth players, but they need their top 6 to be able to compete with other teams' top 6 forwards next season. I don't really think as it stands the top 6 is good enough. Replacing Kuznetsov with someone like Hertl adds 2 full wins to the lineup, which is monumental.

As we saw last year, depth can only get you so far.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

you mean Schultz tailed off as the season wore on and he picked up injuries?! Shocking.

 

[g00n]

As it stands now, here is an estimate of the team going into this season based on the TopDownHockey WAR model:

View attachment 459660

This is based on the following lineup:

Ovechkin-Backstrom-Oshie
Mantha-Kuznetsov-Wilson
Sheary-Eller-Sprong
Hagelin-Dowd-Hathaway

Orlov-Carlson
Kempny-Schultz
TVR-Jensen

Samsonov
Vanecek

Goaltending is the obvious red flag, but aside from like Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy it's hard to rely on goaltending being reliable year in and year out. If necessary acquiring a goaltender is something I'd consider midseason.

But more importantly the things that stick out are the weakness of the top 6 forwards in general and the top 4 defensemen. Perhaps they can look for a Kempny replacement but really it starts and ends with Carlson and Schultz. They've decided to stick with Carlson, for better or worse, but I still think it's possible they could move on from Schultz. TVR over Schultz is such a big improvement, almost a full win better. It needs to happen. And Fehervary over Kempny doesn't change much, mainly because Kempny is basically a replacement level player. Of course most of this is moot if Carlson struggles again next season.

As expected, the top 6 forwards for Washington are quite weak and they are expected to once again be carried by their depth as they were last year. There's nothing wrong with having great depth players, but they need their top 6 to be able to compete with other teams' top 6 forwards next season. I don't really think as it stands the top 6 is good enough. Replacing Kuznetsov with someone like Hertl adds 2 full wins to the lineup, which is monumental.

As we saw last year, depth can only get you so far.

The center position is highlighted, as is the top 6, but offense and penalties are the main things that stick out in general. What does that suggest? Backstrom falling off from being hurt for one. Second is Kuzy's mild production. And penalties are probably dragging the top 6 down in that particular ranking model because of Wilson, I'd guess. It's hard to say without knowing how they're calculating it.

Regarding the defensemen, does Kempny missing all of last year affect the ranking? Looking at LD vs the pairings it seems TVR and Orlov are boosting the hell out of LD, which means Kempny is dragging it down quite a bit. This model also clearly doesn't like Carlson that much, and Schultz even less.

 

[kicksavedave]

Dat 3rd line though!

Also, curious to see how that 2nd pair D would have looked if it was still Dillon and not Kempny. I have doubts Kempny is actually in the lineup this year, I expect it to be one of the two kids.

 

[tenken00]

Dat 3rd line though!

Also, curious to see how that 2nd pair D would have looked if it was still Dillon and not Kempny. I have doubts Kempny is actually in the lineup this year, I expect it to be one of the two kids.

Kinda crazy with a 3rd line projection ranking of 1st and a 4th line projection ranking of 3rd..

that has to be the #1 bottom 6 in the league.

 

[g00n]

Kinda crazy with a 3rd line projection ranking of 1st and a 4th line projection ranking of 3rd..

that has to be the #1 bottom 6 in the league.

And yet how much time has been spent here bashing at least half of them...

 

[twabby]

you mean Schultz tailed off as the season wore on and he picked up injuries?! Shocking.

It'd be one thing if Schultz was otherwise a good player with a single season derailed by injuries. But he's been replacement level or below for 3 years straight now. Those guys are fine as a 7D I guess, but as a 3/4D that's a big problem!

There's nothing that suggests he is going to suddenly put it together next year.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

pretty pictures!

 

[Hivemind]

We'll see if Laviolette actually keeps that Sheary-Eller-Sprong line together.

 

[twabby]

The center position is highlighted, as is the top 6, but offense and penalties are the main things that stick out in general. What does that suggest? Backstrom falling off from being hurt for one. Second is Kuzy's mild production. And penalties are probably dragging the top 6 down in that particular ranking model because of Wilson, I'd guess. It's hard to say without knowing how they're calculating it.

Regarding the defensemen, does Kempny missing all of last year affect the ranking? Looking at LD vs the pairings it seems TVR and Orlov are boosting the hell out of LD, which means Kempny is dragging it down quite a bit. This model also clearly doesn't like Carlson that much, and Schultz even less.

Again, do we expect Backstrom to have a clean bill of health next year? We've seen the quotes from his interview about how his training his impacted from his hip injury, and we know it's been around since 2015 at least when he missed some games at the beginning of the season due to his hip surgery. As far as I know there has been no procedure scheduled for this offseason, so I think it's somewhat reasonable to expect him to be impacted by it.

This is a 3-year weighted model, which I think is reasonable. As a result, Kuznetsov is certainly dragging down that second line and why I think he needs to be the player to be replaced. As mentioned replacing him with a player like Hertl or Eichel adds two wins to the team, which is quite big for a single player.

Wilson's impact over the past 3 years is probably slightly negative, but I think it's the team's lack of drawing penalties in general that hurts them the most. Kuznetsov, Dowd, and Hagelin also take more penalties than they draw, which you don't want from your forwards.

I imagine Kempny missing last season hurts him a bit, but I'm not sure this really makes much of a difference in the ranking. It really is Schultz impacting the ranking. He is projected to be below replacement level, while Kempny is projected to be at very slightly above replacement level. Having a second pairing below replacement level is not ideal!

The model indeed dislikes Carlson: he's at 0.3 WAR. Mainly because of his brutal defensive metrics weighing down his strong offensive performance. Schultz is at -0.5 WAR because he's uh not good at anything.

 

[twabby]

Dat 3rd line though!

Also, curious to see how that 2nd pair D would have looked if it was still Dillon and not Kempny. I have doubts Kempny is actually in the lineup this year, I expect it to be one of the two kids.

Dillon is estimated to be 0.3 WAR, so the pairing would be at -0.2 WAR instead of the current -0.5 WAR with Kempny slotted in (or Fehervary, who is assumed to be replacement level since he doesn't meet the 200 minute qualification). I imagine -0.2 WAR is still near the bottom of the league.

 

[twabby]

pretty pictures!

I disagree, that one in particular is quite ugly.

 

[twabby]

Kinda crazy with a 3rd line projection ranking of 1st and a 4th line projection ranking of 3rd..

that has to be the #1 bottom 6 in the league.

It is indeed, at least based on the projection. As @Hivemind said who knows what Laviolette does. I imagine the 4th line stays as is, but I could see Sprong landing in the doghouse because he turned a puck over or whatever. I imagine the third line should still be pretty strong.

This projection adds to the evidence that the team's problem isn't really depth. They're not a deadline 3rd line winger away from being a contender. They need to make a real impact move in the top 6, preferably replacing Kuznetsov with a high-end center no matter the cost. Those types of moves typically only happen in the offseason.

They also need to ditch that second pairing with Schultz on it, and they need a contingency plan for the goaltending in case Samsonov struggles again.

 

[kicksavedave]

Kinda crazy with a 3rd line projection ranking of 1st and a 4th line projection ranking of 3rd..

that has to be the #1 bottom 6 in the league.

It is, I mean the numbers says so right here:

 

[tenken00]

It is, I mean the numbers says so right here:

View attachment 459690

Jumping Jehoshaphat!

I'm blind

Could have saved myself 15 minutes of deduction.

 

[g00n]

Again, do we expect Backstrom to have a clean bill of health next year? We've seen the quotes from his interview about how his training his impacted from his hip injury, and we know it's been around since 2015 at least when he missed some games at the beginning of the season due to his hip surgery. As far as I know there has been no procedure scheduled for this offseason, so I think it's somewhat reasonable to expect him to be impacted by it.

This is a 3-year weighted model, which I think is reasonable. As a result, Kuznetsov is certainly dragging down that second line and why I think he needs to be the player to be replaced. As mentioned replacing him with a player like Hertl or Eichel adds two wins to the team, which is quite big for a single player.

Wilson's impact over the past 3 years is probably slightly negative, but I think it's the team's lack of drawing penalties in general that hurts them the most. Kuznetsov, Dowd, and Hagelin also take more penalties than they draw, which you don't want from your forwards.

I imagine Kempny missing last season hurts him a bit, but I'm not sure this really makes much of a difference in the ranking. It really is Schultz impacting the ranking. He is projected to be below replacement level, while Kempny is projected to be at very slightly above replacement level. Having a second pairing below replacement level is not ideal!

The model indeed dislikes Carlson: he's at 0.3 WAR. Mainly because of his brutal defensive metrics weighing down his strong offensive performance. Schultz is at -0.5 WAR because he's uh not good at anything.

What's the range for WAR in this model around the league? .3 and .5 don't seem that huge.

Why are we assuming Backstrom is going to be gimpy? Weren't his comments taken out of context, re: training?

 

[g00n]

It is indeed, at least based on the projection. As @Hivemind said who knows what Laviolette does. I imagine the 4th line stays as is, but I could see Sprong landing in the doghouse because he turned a puck over or whatever. I imagine the third line should still be pretty strong.

This projection adds to the evidence that the team's problem isn't really depth. They're not a deadline 3rd line winger away from being a contender. They need to make a real impact move in the top 6, preferably replacing Kuznetsov with a high-end center no matter the cost. Those types of moves typically only happen in the offseason.

They also need to ditch that second pairing with Schultz on it, and they need a contingency plan for the goaltending in case Samsonov struggles again.

I'm 50/50 on that. I'd be fine with those moves as they hit the exact targets I noted at the end of the season, but I'm not sure about the cost. I'm also not convinced the randomness of injury is something we can account for, or that the mental game can be discounted. A few moves don't fix the attitudes and player dynamics in most cases, unless you get a new leader in the locker room and eject anyone who doesn't get on board.

 

[twabby]

What's the range for WAR in this model around the league? .3 and .5 don't seem that huge.

Why are we assuming Backstrom is going to be gimpy? Weren't his comments taken out of context, re: training?

I'm assuming Backstrom is going to be gimpy because he has had problems with his hip in the past, he had problems with it last year, hasn't done anything in the offseason to fix it, and they are about to play an 82 game compressed schedule along with additional Olympic games for Backstrom more than likely. And he's going to be 34 years old.

The WAR data is here, if you want to take a look at:

https://public.tableau.com/app/prof...boveReplacement2007-2021/WinsAboveReplacement

 

[kicksavedave]

Jumping Jehoshaphat!

I'm blind

Could have saved myself 15 minutes of deduction.

The data don't lie, but sometimes it can be camouflaged.

 

[g00n]

I'm assuming Backstrom is going to be gimpy because he has had problems with his hip in the past, he had problems with it last year, hasn't done anything in the offseason to fix it, and they are about to play an 82 game compressed schedule along with additional Olympic games for Backstrom more than likely. And he's going to be 34 years old.

The WAR data is here, if you want to take a look at:

https://public.tableau.com/app/prof...boveReplacement2007-2021/WinsAboveReplacement

Ok thanks, but I was interested more in how they come up with their stats. Also not sure how to sort by team on that interface since it's text entry. I've been staring at f***ing data for work the last 16 hours so maybe I'm just too fried to see it.

 

[txpd]

I'm assuming Backstrom is going to be gimpy because he has had problems with his hip in the past, he had problems with it last year, hasn't done anything in the offseason to fix itt

You mean to say that he hasn't had surgery on his hip. Yes? I'd say its presumptuous to say he has done nothing. That would be unprofessional. Backstrom has said that his hip is healthy and his training is normal.

Give credit where its due. Your anti Backstrom narrative is breathtaking. Carry on.

 

[twabby]

Ok thanks, but I was interested more in how they come up with their stats. Also not sure how to sort by team on that interface since it's text entry. I've been staring at f***ing data for work the last 16 hours so maybe I'm just too fried to see it.

The writeup for this particular model is here:

Wins Above Replacement — High Level Overview

That Tableau isn’t great for selecting by team, unfortunately. I think you can type the three letter team code (i.e. WSH for the Capitals). As far as I can tell that’s the only place the data is available.

 

[twabby]

You mean to say that he hasn't had surgery on his hip. Yes? I'd say its presumptuous to say he has done nothing. That would be unprofessional. Backstrom has said that his hip is healthy and his training is normal.

Give credit where its due. Your anti Backstrom narrative is breathtaking. Carry on.

I didn’t mean to suggest he wasn’t rehabbing his hip. Poor wording on my part, I apologize.

But I’m still not convinced he’ll be fully healthy next year. Hip injuries are very difficult to overcome. Being 34 years old is certainly not going to help things either. There are just a lot of things working against him, including a compressed schedule and additional games if he chooses to represent Sweden in the Olympics.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

So, if they get half decent goaltending, say 18th overall, they'd move up to what spot as a team overall?