"ALL IN" Mentality is it Paying Off?

[Jaded-Fan]

Wouldn't you agree that the more picks you have, the better those percentages become?

NHL organizations CANNOT go into the draft process with a defeatist attitude. It's like the first day of training camp. EVERY team in the NHL believes they are going to win the Stanley Cup. If you don't believe, then get out of the business.

Same with draft picks. Every scout has to believe every pick they make is going to pan out. Otherwise, why are you drafting that player? Nobody is giving picks away, nobody is taking a guy who can't play at all.

It's a mentality that needs to change. Some teams have. Some teams used to spend like drunken sailors, but have shifted their focus to the draft since the introduction of the salary cap.

We need to do the same, because the way we're going we're not sniffing another Cup for a while. And who knows about the next 'era'.

I said exactly that.

But we did not piss those picks away this year. We got Perron for a first, for next year as well. Good chance beyond for the rest of Crosby and Malkin's carees. Good luck making a first round pick in the 20's into that. We got a forward for the playoffs in Winnick who will help a lot in keeping players we do have in their proper roles (even if that role is on the bench or the minors). The cost of a 1 in 4 lottery ticket that the 'prize' most likely is an Adams signed puck rather than a Crosby signed jersey (using the charity bag analogy)? I would have been fine had we stood pat, but I am not going to cry over it.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

I said exactly that.

But we did not piss those picks away this year. We got Perron for a first, for next year as well. Good chance beyond for the rest of Crosby and Malkin's carees. Good luck making a first round pick in the 20's into that. We got a forward for the playoffs in Winnick who will help a lot in keeping players we do have in their proper roles (even if that role is on the bench or the minors). The cost of a 1 in 4 lottery ticket that the 'prize' most likely is an Adams signed puck rather than a Crosby signed jersey (using the charity bag analogy)? I would have been fine had we stood pat, but I am not going to cry over it.

Everybody can justify every pick dealt away. The bottom line is we need picks.

If that means NOT getting an extra depth guy like Winnik, then so be it.

What would have been the worst thing about not landing Winnik? Johnston would then be forced to play Bennett???

That's called win-win.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Everybody can justify every pick dealt away. The bottom line is we need picks.

If that means NOT getting an extra depth guy like Winnik, then so be it.

What would have been the worst thing about not landing Winnik? Johnston would then be forced to play Bennett???

That's called win-win.

I was in favor of standing pat and said so before the trade. So I am in agreement.

I suppose my thoughts are of the choose your battles variety. I am not going to get too riled about this one. AND the overvaluing of picks on this site drives me crazy and is a pet peeve of mine. Every first is going to be an all star, every second is the next Letang. The reality is that 80 percent of your picks will not get a cup of coffee at the NHL level, if that, and if you get one even moderate star every four drafts you are doing very well. Most teams never see a Crosby or Malkin let alone both. And we have had in our relatively short existance Mario, Jagr, and on and on. We are pretty spoiled which may explain our overvaluing of picks.

 

[Asuna]

Personally, I hate the 'all in' mentality.

Penguins need to take a year and retool. It needs to happen. In the cap era, you can't win the cup every year.

Chicago retooled after their win in 2010. And they won another in 2013 because they took a year, and retooled.

The Penguins are going to have to do it eventually.

 

[The Greatest 101]

I don't think the picks Shero traded away really hurt us that much.The pens just need to draft better and develop the players better.Bennett and Despres were not developed well and they gave up on Morrow pretty early and easily.That hurts the team more.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

If Shero had drafted Forsberg instead of Puoliot, and Saad instead of Morrow, as many here wanted at the time, then how would our drafts/team look now? Even with 'All in'. It was not giving away some picks as much as a philosophical blind spot that hurt us most.

 

[SEALBound]

If Shero had drafted Forsberg instead of Puoliot, and Saad instead of Morrow, as many here wanted at the time, then how would our drafts/team look now? Even with 'All in'. It was not giving away some picks as much as a philosophical blind spot that hurt us most.

It can be said for Saad yes, but remember taking Pouliot at #8 allowed us to get Maatta at #22.

We'd be down 2 top notch dmen prospects right now had we not done it. Personally, even though Forsberg is having a great year, I'd rather have Pouliot and Maatta than Forsberg+...whoever. No guarantee we get either Pouliot and most certainly not Maatta.

The real kick in the pants would be why didn't we trade someone like Kunitz or Dupuis for Forsberg when Washington was is desperate enough need for a wing that they were willing to give up Forsberg?

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

Shero set us back at least 2 years going all in. JR is doing a good job of fixing the mistakes but it'll take years to be rid of the scourge Shero left on this team.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

Shero set us back at least 2 years going all in. JR is doing a good job of fixing the mistakes but it'll take years to be rid of the scourge Shero left on this team.

If he keeps dealing picks, it'll take even more years.

 

[tom_servo]

Players' ages and retainability need to be considered when we're trading futures. For Shero, it seemed not too be a consideration. For JR (or the executive committee), maybe it is.

 

[PitPenguin]

Seems exactly like what I predicted what was going to happen panned out.
It's split right down the middle. Just like our fanbase on everything lol. I am still personally also split on this as well. Shero did some damage and JR's trades have been fantastic, but we said that about Shero's earlier trades as well and it went all down hill from there so i am still a little bit skeptical about what the future holds for the depth of the organization.
I feel like this team needs to take a step in a direction, whether that means completely going for it for the next 5 years and then be shambles but with a couple cups (hopefully) or retool for a year or two and been a THE SERIOUS cup favorite not just in the A cup favorite. Just the retooling should have been done the year after Iginla dilemma however hindsight is 20/20.
Next Question adding on top of that?
How do you think the postseason will shake out with odds like this?


Numbers for the penguins realistically the rest of the way.

Games Remaining against Teams in the Playoff Hunt - 48.5%
(Mainly Western Conference & Atlantic)
Metro Opponents Remaining - (MARCH = CBJ-1, NJD-1 & CAR-1)
(APRIL = PHI-2, NYI-1 & CBJ-1)
[[Means they can make up points easily without any games being a lose/lose situation seeing how it can't be a 4 point swing as often]]

20(Metro)/14(WC) Points remain to clinch playoff birth
Playoff Odds for positioning = 1st-17% 2nd-29% 3rd-41% WC-13%
PENS 86% first opponent - NYR...


Thoughts on that? with the retooling that is needed and the run that would have to occur for the penguins to win the east. (NYR, *NYI/WAS, *TBL/MTL)
(* for most likely opponent, however the NYR, NYI, WAS & TBL i think could knock them out.)

 

[cygnus47]

I'm of a mind that it's extremely unlikely that we'll be able to just re-tool once Sid and Geno are no longer elite. Between now and then, chances are we won't have two picks that develop into franchise centres. We're going to have to suffer for at least a year or two at some point when they decline. I would go so far as to say that there is no use thinking past the Sid/Geno window.

The other thing is that in the salary cap, no-one is truly a cup contender for more than 2-3 years at a time. Teams can stay as maybe a conference contender for a 5+ year period, but GM's need to understand the reality that if you aren't in that 2-3 year window, your team must get better each successive year. This year was a re-tooling year. Anything we do this year is going to be very lightning in a bottle. This roster is too fresh and IMO we lack the cohesiveness to go all the way. And that is fine. That is something Shero couldn't accept and that is why we failed for 5 years (and still have useless relics on the roster).

With that in mind, I would say that GMJR needs to be careful because as things are at the moment, next year is looking like our best chance to win it all again. This year, we're not looking like a true contender, but the moves he has made has put us in a position where if we can strengthen our team bonds this post-season, we'll have our deepest roster since 08 next year. All our key players in their primes and we will have MULTIPLE entry level/cheap contracts at key positions. If we're able to keep Lapierre, Winnik, Comeau etc around for a couple seasons, then I have no issue at all with what he's done so far.

I'm not worried about the draft picks because in 5 years, the whole game will have changed for us. The one thing we CANNOT sell out is our chance to be a real contender next year. As long as we're better next year and the year after that, JR can throw away as many picks as he wants.

 

[deczola]

I think you're confusing trying to set the team up to win every year, and expending assets to put a team over the top. There's a difference. Last year is a pretty good example of that. Shero expended 2 thirds and a 5th (I believe) to acquire Goc and Stempniak. That's a smart way to move a few assets but bring in players who add depth and can help this team, and hopefully allow them to have more success. Compare that to the year before... JJ (great move), Igina (1st++), Morrow (Morrow) and Murray (2nd,2nd). That's a VERY expensive trade deadline. Now I understand why he did that... The lockout created an artificial cap environment where we basically didn't have a salary cap, that allowed him to go crazy... and crazy he did go.

I don't mind most of the moves JR has done. The 1st for Perron was a great trade - as long as he can resign him (which I think we will). IF he can re-sign Winnik, then I'm not too concerned about what he paid for them... but otherwise, I can't stand this trade. It was significantly more expensive then an asset like this should have been.

I agree with the majority of what you stated. I'm a believer in strong MGMT top to bottom, smart drafting, smart trades and smart free agent signings. You can be a great drafting team and if you fail everywhere else, the draft means nothing (Oilers).

 

[BillyOcean]

The input has to at least match the output over time. You can go "All-in" by trading away prospects on one hand, but then you can also come in on the back end and recoup those picks by trading other assets.

The Penguins got very unlucky this year with injuries. There could have easily been a scenario this trading deadline where the Penguins both added draft picks (for someone like Paul Martin) and landed a big-time NHL player with draft picks.

What can most cripple an NHL team is improper asset management, specifically:
(A) Giving up premium draft picks for rental players that WON'T make a difference for your team (Bill Guerin playing on the first line was a big difference maker. Douglas Murray? the hell...)
(B) Giving too much money to middling, older talent through FA or by re-signing them
(C) Not trading pending UFA for assets

I think the Penguins are guilty of all three. Murray, Morrow come to mind for (A) and Scuderi, Kunitz, Dupuis come into mind for (B).

As for (C), I feel this is the one the Penguins fail at most. Yet, they've probably have had the most success with it (by force) with Staal. It's of mine opinion that any successful organization will have at least one or two positions with a surplus or a prospect waiting in the wings. Even as the Penguins have traded away 20-plus draft picks through the years, the team has still managed to have defensive prospects beating on the door.

Let's go back to the 2013-14 season. Instead of shipping Despres off to the bench for two straight seasons, what if Bylsma would have placed him into a bottom pairing role? All of the sudden UFAs like Matt Niskanen and Brooks Orpik have HUGE value at the trade deadline and they're equally as expendable with the emergence of Despres. What would Niskanen have brought last year? There's probably no doubt that it would have been AT LEAST a first round pick. Would having Despres over Niskanen last playoffs not gotten us out of the second round?

As mentioned before, the Penguins could have taken advantage of that this season as well, but injuries got in the way.

 

[Ugene Magic]

How many other contenders are shipping out their impending UFA's?

For picks and prospects no-less.

 

[Mischa]

Personally, I hate the 'all in' mentality.

Penguins need to take a year and retool. It needs to happen. In the cap era, you can't win the cup every year.

Chicago retooled after their win in 2010. And they won another in 2013 because they took a year, and retooled.

The Penguins are going to have to do it eventually.

new players this year:
Hornqvist, Spaling, Comeau, Downie, Lapierre, Perron, Ehrhoff, Greiss
bennett and despres are getting mroe playtime and pouliot is getting an extended call up (though its due to maatta's injury)

50% roster turnover is pretty significant.

 

[Asuna]

new players this year:
Hornqvist, Spaling, Comeau, Downie, Lapierre, Perron, Ehrhoff, Greiss
bennett and despres are getting mroe playtime and pouliot is getting an extended call up (though its due to maatta's injury)

50% roster turnover is pretty significant.

And only Hornqvist is here long term. Many of those players could be short fixes...again not what the Penguins need.

 

[plaidchuck]

The way this organization handles scouting and develops forwards, they're better off dealing the picks away.