"ALL IN" Mentality is it Paying Off?

[PitPenguin]

After the Winnik trade i was curious. (MOST OF THIS IS ON RAY SHERO) However, i was wondering about the drafting habits of the Penguins the last decade but stopped at 5 for other teams.

Last 5 years. Number of draft picks in the NHL Entry Draft (2014-2010)
**[Realized afterwards I should have put the rounds in this as well]**

Pittsburgh - 31
Washington - 31 (Except drafted Forwards, 3/4 were at least 6'2")
New York (I) - 34
Tampa Bay - 35
St. Louis - 37

Stanley Cup Winners
Chicago - 46
Los Angeles - 34
Boston - 31


Chicago drafts a lot of people. Blackhawks can afford the luxury of 15 absolute busts before they even get to Pittsburgh's number. Unbelievable disparity when the two teams have been in very similar situations the last decade except Chicago has kept their farm system intact even though their cap situation is in shambles.
(15 total picks is 2 and half years worth of picks to the Pittsburgh's.)
(48% more picks. 3 more per year. )

St. Louis, Tampa Bay & New York (I) have used this time to draft a couple more players closing the gap, avg. about 1 more player per year. All of these years, the teams mentioned have retained picks if they were in the "all in" mentality or use their depth picks in retooling years to grab solid players & develop them.
(Islanders - 2nd & Blues & Lightning 3rd/4th)

Los Angeles (& i guess Washington) have been in the same situation as the Penguins (Cap issues, Playoff races, Injuries to players, etc...) however they seem to have realized what type of players they want in the draft to be successful having multiple forwards that have one specific talent, skill cannot teach... SIZE

**** Boston! Don't even want to talk about them but they are in the same situation as the Penguins right now so is it any surprise they are fighting to be in the playoffs at this point.


So what i am trying to get at is. Is it worth it every year to be "all-in?" I get you have Sidney Crosby & Geno and they are in their primes. But do you regret any of the years in the past they went for it? Do you think the fact they only have 10 out of 14 drafts picks left over the next two years already? (1st & 4th in 15, 2nd & 4th in 16). Personally as I am typing this I still think it is kind of worth it, but i would be lying if I didn't believe at least one of those years they could have grabbed a couple extra picks instead of rentals or depth players with multiple years on the books. I feel GMJR and (maybe, i mean maybe) HCMJ know what they are doing and have a plan in place to lead this team back and this will be their first draft together pretty much after a full year of evaluating the players they have and want. I just want to know if the rest of the Penguins fanbase is okay with it really because i am starting to get a little bit frustrated that we may be putting our shelves into a hole where we can only improve through trades and not drafting anymore because we are to top heavy.
(& by top heavy i mean one-way contracts that aren't a lot of help to the team with a bunch of late round draft choices in the AHL no other team would want to touch, basically a team snatched up of other teams waiver players)

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[xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]

I have no problem with the way JR & Co. have spent the picks they've moved. They acquired the best long-term winger we've had in over a decade in Perron, and they've retooled the bottom six to become bigger and tougher to play against with Winnik and Lapierre. Perron should be around for the long haul, and I'd imagine the team would love to re-sign Winnik. Lapierre should come cheap as well, and he's a decent 4th line center.

Shero, on the other hand, moved two 2nd rounders for Murray who was wholly ineffective. Traded one of our better prospects for Brenden Morrow, who had been over the hill for like 5 years at the time of the trade. That's pretty piss poor management. So much so, that I can't even understand how people are comparing the two.

JR makes moves for the present as well as the future. Shero was a knee-jerk GM who had an unhealthy obsession with veterans, and pissed away assets for nothing. Big difference, I think.

 

[madinsomniac]

I think its also that the moves JR made fit the team, the scheme, and the coach better than most of the moves shero did. What is more, just about every player he has brought in has been a guy that the other team's fans have gushed about... Think about that... Hornqvist, Perron, Lappy, now Winnik even Downie as a free agent... all of those guys had other team's fans on here saying how much we would love their overall play... and honestly the one addition that came with inconsistency warnings, comeau, has been playing out of his mind...

 

[deczola]

I've watched and bet sports for near 20 years. If you are not all in every year than you are a pathetic franchise. Even if you have a lousy team, you should be all in. Winning philosophy rubs off on players and even on down years, the mindset is in place that we are here to compete for the Championship every year.

 

[PensPlz]

I'd like to see at this year's draft some recycling of Shero's defensemen for picks. We can at least get a couple more 2nds or early 3rds for Harrington and Dumoulin, who I don't see making it full time on this team. Try drafting a couple big forwards from this year's healthy selection.

 

[bobholly39]

Hello. I'm a habs fan (also a big Crosby/Pittsburgh fan though), and thought i'd chip in.

When you have Sidney Crosby and Malkin on the same team - you HAVE to be all-in every year.

You won't win the cup every year. In fact, you haven't, you only won one cup. You probably won't win the cup this year (but who knows - maybe you will). But honestly - I literally cannot think of a SINGLE playoff matchup in recent years that involved the Penguins for which I didn't think to myself "Yep - Pittsburgh are the favorites".

My point is - Crosby/Malkin are probably the two best players in the world. They may not be on a Gretzky/Lemieux level, but still pretty damn great. Get them both to get on a hot streak at a right time and it's almost stupid not to be all-in, every year.

This year again - Habs are in 1st place in conference by quite a bit as of this post. Yet if we play you in playoffs - in my mind i'd consider Pittsburgh favorites. If you make it to the finals against Chicago or LA? again - the team with Crosby/Malkin - it's their playoffs to lose.

So no - being all-in is the way to go in my mind. Maybe not for every team - but certainly for Penguins

 

[gRoy804]

Shero's idea of "all in" (Morrow/Murray trades, Bylsma putting Iginla on the wrong wing) is not the way to go about it. What JR is doing is something I can support. We have two of the best players in the world, there shouldn't be any rebuilding years while these guys are in their primes.

 

[JTG]

Towards the end of Shero's tenure, he was getting a little too free with the picks. I had absolutely no issue with the Hossa deal, the Iginla deal, even the deal for Jordan Leopold I thought was a solid deal for us. When you trade a young guy who has 1st round talent for a guy who has little to nothing left in the tank, then follow it up by trade two 2nd round picks for a bottom pair defenseman...you're just getting crazy. I also thought the 3 and a 5 for Goc was a little too steep. I'm by no means a draft pick hoarder, but if you're going to trade Joe Morrow, or you're going to trade two 2nds...I'd rather it be for either young guys we can control as RFA's, or young guys who are under contract. Offer a team Joe Morrow and two 2nds right now...you could probably get some long term solutions for that.

We didn't know it, but it's very clear using hindsight that Shero knew he was fighting for his job.

 

[Le Magnifique 66]

I undetstand the reason they're doing it and have done it in the last few years thing is I just didn't like some of the moves they've made. Guys like Morrow and Murray for example, that was useless.

As for the Hawks, let's not forget the reason they've got so many picks was because of cap problems after winning their 1st Cup, they sold Ladd, Buff and others and received plenty of picks back. Turned out great for team, and they will keep doing it in the next coming years if they move players like Sharp or even Hossa. They will get picks back and keep drafting more then other teams.

 

[YinzAintBurgh*]

Has it yet? No. Only going to have Crosby and Malkin for so long. The time to win is now not in 5-10 years when those picks will come into play.

My only problem is they aren't addressing the real issue. I'm tired of the revolving door of wingers. They need defense! Pouliout has been fine but Maatta looked 10x better last year in regular season and fell on his face in his first playoffs. Defense will be the reason they don't make any noise, again.

 

[tom_servo]

Towards the end of Shero's tenure, he was getting a little too free with the picks. I had absolutely no issue with the Hossa deal, the Iginla deal, even the deal for Jordan Leopold I thought was a solid deal for us. When you trade a young guy who has 1st round talent for a guy who has little to nothing left in the tank, then follow it up by trade two 2nd round picks for a bottom pair defenseman...you're just getting crazy. I also thought the 3 and a 5 for Goc was a little too steep. I'm by no means a draft pick hoarder, but if you're going to trade Joe Morrow, or you're going to trade two 2nds...I'd rather it be for either young guys we can control as RFA's, or young guys who are under contract. Offer a team Joe Morrow and two 2nds right now...you could probably get some long term solutions for that.

We didn't know it, but it's very clear using hindsight that Shero knew he was fighting for his job.

Good post. I agree. Ray Shero went all-in on himself.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

All in isn't working. Try something different.

 

[Sam Spade]

Does anyone feel like they are messing too much with the guys in the room? Does chemistry matter? Will you battle as hard, go thru a wall for a guy who just walked in the locker room two weeks ago?

I loved the Perron deal, but honestly I would have stopped there.

Farnham up then down, Klinkhammer here then gone, Arcobello here then gone, Goc gone, Sill seemed like a popular guy, gone. Not to mention adding in the new guys at camp in Hornqvist and Spalling, now Winnick in. Rearranging deck chairs if you ask me.

Dupuis always struck me as the leader of the team, heart and soul guy, I wonder who fills that role now for the Pens, or does it even matter?

 

[Captain Hook]

The mentality is fine. The execution of it has left something to be desired over the years.

 

[Don'tcry4mejanhrdina]

Shero didn't know what he was doing. He admitted it when he signed Scuderi I believe. A reporter asked him what about his rule about not giving non-core players deals longer than 2 years. He flat out said he didn't know what he was doing so he made stuff up to sound like he did. The guy lost Malone and Hossa so he signed Feds and Satan. Getting Guerin for so little Was great but many here thought he was too slow and done when that trade happened.

Shero really lucked out that year. Talbot scoring 8 goals, one of Crosby and Malkin both in beast mode almost constantly, things just lined up perfectly that year.

 

[The Old Master]

in a cap era, you need to have a steady flow of good cheep kids coming up to have a real chance at the cup.......adding a player at the deadline is not a bad thing, but trying to build a team is..

 

[Coastal Kev]

The Players, the coach and the fans can have an "all in" attitude. But a GM should never have this as a mantra. I think GM's use this "all in" mantra as a way to provide cover for their own poor decision making. Poor drafts, bad trades and poor player development typically leads to bad cap management.

When a team is cap strapped it usually is caused by several factors but the most glaring problem is poor player development. If you have younger cheaper options, you won't be forced into expensive contracts for declining players. Dupuis, Scuderi, Adams and Kunitz were all signed to multi year contracts for this very reason.

If you look at Pittsburgh's 3 major sport teams, it unbelievable to see that the Pirates are clearly the best run organization for the past several years. The Buccos are grooming tons of young talent and it gives them many options moving forward. I understand that they don't have a cap (they do though internally), but they are building the best way.

Both the Steelers and Penguins on the other hand are struggling in a period where instead they should be thriving. Both have Keystones for winning but both have failed at developing talent (I understand their are some success stories, but not enough).

I heard Steelers GM Colbert interviewed back in 2006 and he was asked about how the Steelers are so successful. Colbert stated that they had a core belief to build from within and never to sign a player to an overvalued big 3rd contract. He said these type of contracts can doom a franchise due to high dollars and declining performance.

Fast forward not even 5 years and Colbert was forced to sign multiple players to these dreaded high dollar third contracts. Very similar to what Shero did with the Pens and isn't it more than a bit ironic that those two guys are good friends?

 

[Jaded-Fan]

The difference is that Shero's 'plan' was inherently flawed. Draft defensemen, especially PMD, because they have real value, but then never play then to become valuable enough to trade as you sign more defenseman. Throw what little money you have left, and draft picks, against the wall at usually iffy forwards and hope something sticks and you get lucky.

JR seems to have a real logical plan that even if it fails makes sense to me. A plan aimed toward the type of player and team build that works in the playoffs.

Get bigger and more skilled in the bottom six at forward, develop and play those drafted defensemen, make logical long term trades at forward if you can. I really can not look at a single trade or FA signing that JR has made and be worse than neutral on it. Most of the moves by JR I enthusiastically support. Even this last trade, I wanted us to stand pat but giving up basically a 2016 2nd, meh, who cares? I am not for throwing away picks, but the chances that pick would do anything in the NHL are not high enough for me to care.

That is the difference. JR has a plan that I am not only comfortable with but that I agree with.

 

[The Greatest 101]

If Shero really had the "all-in" mentality,he would never have drafted Pouliot.The Morrow trade is not all-in mentality.It's crazy.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

If Shero really had the "all-in" mentality,he would never have drafted Pouliot.The Morrow trade is not all-in mentality.It's crazy.

'All-in, with a side order of defenseman fetish.'


Better?

 

[Jag68Sid87]

Even this last trade, I wanted us to stand pat but giving up basically a 2016 2nd, meh, who cares? I am not for throwing away picks, but the chances that pick would do anything in the NHL are not high enough for me to care.

I respect you a lot, Jaded, but if you don't care about SECOND-round draft picks, then you can simply say you don't care about draft picks. Period. So I certainly understand why you love JR.

But make no mistake. Second-round draft picks are the lifeblood of any winning organization. It's a bit of a running joke on this board, mainly because we've traded so many in the past...while others didn't pan out. But second-round draft picks aren't just important, they're VITAL to prolonged success.

There's a definite correlation between our lack of second round success and the obvious holes we have, the constant need for rentals and the overall roster flaws we all see regularly.

The irony of course, is that this organization should have been thinking long term five years ago...when Sid and Geno had their ENTIRE careers ahead of them. But, the sooner we take a step back and look a bit longer term than what we've been doing for the past several seasons, the quicker Sid and Geno will be back leading a TRUE Cup contender again.

The way we're headed, Sid and Geno will be 33-34 years old before we get this thing straightened out.

The NHL trade deadline is for suckers. And we've been among the biggest the past several years.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

I respect you a lot, Jaded, but if you don't care about SECOND-round draft picks, then you can simply say you don't care about draft picks. Period. So I certainly understand why you love JR.

But make no mistake. Second-round draft picks are the lifeblood of any winning organization. It's a bit of a running joke on this board, mainly because we've traded so many in the past...while others didn't pan out. But second-round draft picks aren't just important, they're VITAL to prolonged success.

There's a definite correlation between our lack of second round success and the obvious holes we have, the constant need for rentals and the overall roster flaws we all see regularly.

The irony of course, is that this organization should have been thinking long term five years ago...when Sid and Geno had their ENTIRE careers ahead of them. But, the sooner we take a step back and look a bit longer term than what we've been doing for the past several seasons, the quicker Sid and Geno will be back leading a TRUE Cup contender again.

The way we're headed, Sid and Geno will be 33-34 years old before we get this thing straightened out.

The NHL trade deadline is for suckers. And we've been among the biggest the past several years.

An article from only a few months ago:

The NHL Draft is a giant lottery ticket
http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2014/6/27/5845256/nhl-draft-2014-analysis-luck


From the article, it points out that a Second Round Pick has a 65.7% of seeing the NHL at all, a 31.1% chance of 100 plus games. Again, in any role at all no matter how bad. Sill may see 100 games in a career.

Third round is a 27.9% percent chance of getting 100 plus games no matter how bad the player is in those games.

And as we pick at the bottom third of rounds each year, that means basically that second that we gave away has a one in four chance of the pick becoming even a sucky player. Much less a very good one.

Look, I know we need picks, and having a lot is great precisely because so many flame out. However, some perspective as to value of an individual bottom of the round second is in order as well.

 

[Riptide]

Los Angeles (& i guess Washington) have been in the same situation as the Penguins (Cap issues, Playoff races, Injuries to players, etc...) however they seem to have realized what type of players they want in the draft to be successful having multiple forwards that have one specific talent, skill cannot teach... SIZE

Size also doesn't equal heart or desire. As we see every game size doesn't mean squat if you choose not to use it. And heart, drive and desire can easily override size.

Chicago doesn't have a ton of size. And yet they didn't have a ton of issues against Boston after Boston embarrassed us. And while Bsoton embarrassed us, it wasn't due to their size, but how well they played, vs how ****** Bylsma coached us. That doesn't mean I'm in favor of drafting a lot of 5-9 players... but it also doesn't mean we need to focus on a lot of 6-5 guys. Average size (6-1) is more than fine - just as long as they have the heart and desire to go to the dirty area's.

So what i am trying to get at is. Is it worth it every year to be "all-in?" I get you have Sidney Crosby & Geno and they are in their primes. But do you regret any of the years in the past they went for it? Do you think the fact they only have 10 out of 14 drafts picks left over the next two years already? (1st & 4th in 15, 2nd & 4th in 16). Personally as I am typing this I still think it is kind of worth it, but i would be lying if I didn't believe at least one of those years they could have grabbed a couple extra picks instead of rentals or depth players with multiple years on the books. I feel GMJR and (maybe, i mean maybe) HCMJ know what they are doing and have a plan in place to lead this team back and this will be their first draft together pretty much after a full year of evaluating the players they have and want. I just want to know if the rest of the Penguins fanbase is okay with it really because i am starting to get a little bit frustrated that we may be putting our shelves into a hole where we can only improve through trades and not drafting anymore because we are to top heavy.
(& by top heavy i mean one-way contracts that aren't a lot of help to the team with a bunch of late round draft choices in the AHL no other team would want to touch, basically a team snatched up of other teams waiver players)

No. And you can't afford to be "all in" every year. Without successful drafting the team will eventually falter. Do you really want to see a team where Crosby and Malkin are in their mid 30s (say 34/35) and have zero depth and no realistic chance to have success? Ask Toronto (circa 2005) what that feels like... because that's what it'll look like. However that means that for Pittsburgh to have young players who are in a position to contribute significantly in 5-6 years, we need to be prepared to draft them over the next 2 years.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

An article from last year:

http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2014/6/27/5845256/nhl-draft-2014-analysis-luck


From the article, it points out that a Second Round Pick has a 65.7% of seeing the NHL at all, a 31.1% chance of 100 plus games. Again, in any role at all no matter how bad. Sill may see 100 games in a career.

Third round is a 27.9% percent chance of getting 100 plus games no matter how bad the player is in those games.

And as we pick at the bottom third of rounds each year, that means basically a one in four chance of the pick becoming even a sucky player. Much less a very good one.

Look, I know we need picks, and having a lot is great precisely because so many flame out. However, some perspective as to value of an individual bottom of the round second is in order as well.

Wouldn't you agree that the more picks you have, the better those percentages become?

NHL organizations CANNOT go into the draft process with a defeatist attitude. It's like the first day of training camp. EVERY team in the NHL believes they are going to win the Stanley Cup. If you don't believe, then get out of the business.

Same with draft picks. Every scout has to believe every pick they make is going to pan out. Otherwise, why are you drafting that player? Nobody is giving picks away, nobody is taking a guy who can't play at all.

It's a mentality that needs to change. Some teams have. Some teams used to spend like drunken sailors, but have shifted their focus to the draft since the introduction of the salary cap.

We need to do the same, because the way we're going we're not sniffing another Cup for a while. And who knows about the next 'era'.

 

[Riptide]

I've watched and bet sports for near 20 years. If you are not all in every year than you are a pathetic franchise. Even if you have a lousy team, you should be all in. Winning philosophy rubs off on players and even on down years, the mindset is in place that we are here to compete for the Championship every year.

I think you're confusing trying to set the team up to win every year, and expending assets to put a team over the top. There's a difference. Last year is a pretty good example of that. Shero expended 2 thirds and a 5th (I believe) to acquire Goc and Stempniak. That's a smart way to move a few assets but bring in players who add depth and can help this team, and hopefully allow them to have more success. Compare that to the year before... JJ (great move), Igina (1st++), Morrow (Morrow) and Murray (2nd,2nd). That's a VERY expensive trade deadline. Now I understand why he did that... The lockout created an artificial cap environment where we basically didn't have a salary cap, that allowed him to go crazy... and crazy he did go.

I don't mind most of the moves JR has done. The 1st for Perron was a great trade - as long as he can resign him (which I think we will). IF he can re-sign Winnik, then I'm not too concerned about what he paid for them... but otherwise, I can't stand this trade. It was significantly more expensive then an asset like this should have been.