All-Encompassing Stats Thread

[billingtons ghost]

The bolded statement is not true. The league average salary is defined by the salary cap, which is driven by revenue. If the salary cap stays the same, the league average salary will more or less stay the same, regardless if some GMs get crazy one summer. The only real inflation would come from certain lower revenue owners feeling like they need to spend beyond their means to be competitive.

However, if league revenue were to decrease, the salary cap would decrease, any precedent set by gyms would be immediately trumped by the lower salary cap, and salaries would go down.

There is a finite amount of money that can be spent on players in the NHL. This is not the case for the housing market, as investors can freely shift billions from one investment to another.

This would be true, if all teams spent up to the cap. They don't.

Your argument is false and RG is right.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

This would be true, if all teams spent up to the cap. They don't.

Your argument is false and RG is right.

Did you not see me address that point two sentences later?

The bottom line is that if the salary cap were to go down, that would trump any precedent set by recent signings. Ultimately, the salary cap is what dictates salaries. A handful of teams might spend several million more than they would have given some market inflation, but ultimately that's small potatoes.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Did you not see me address that point two sentences later?

The bottom line is that if the salary cap were to go down, that would trump any precedent set by recent signings. Ultimately, the salary cap is what dictates salaries. A handful of teams might spend several million more than they would have given some market inflation, but ultimately that's small potatoes.

No - you still don't seem to get it. You claim that AVERAGE salaries are dictated by the salary cap. That isn't true, but would be if everyone spent up to the cap.

Only a handful of teams are right on top of the cap, so spending is strictly at the GMs discretion.

And yes, of course if the salary cap were to go down it would change the game. That's a hypothetical and not part of the argument.

The average salary in the NHL is driven and limited by the market forces - not by the salary cap.

I am not sure why you don't get this.

 

[Desert Devil]

I've said it a few times, but to me, stats are a compass, not a map.

This is a great quote. I completely agree.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

pretty good read on passing

http://www.inlouwetrust.com/2014/8/11/5916729/2013-2014-devils-passing-review-corsi-contribution

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

No - you still don't seem to get it. You claim that AVERAGE salaries are dictated by the salary cap. That isn't true, but would be if everyone spent up to the cap.

Only a handful of teams are right on top of the cap, so spending is strictly at the GMs discretion.

And yes, of course if the salary cap were to go down it would change the game. That's a hypothetical and not part of the argument.

The average salary in the NHL is driven and limited by the market forces - not by the salary cap.

I am not sure why you don't get this.

You are the one who doesn't get it.


09-10:
Total Cap Dollars - $1.70 billion
Total Dollars Spent - $1.53 billion
Percentage - 92.9%

10-11:
Total Cap Dollars - $1.78 billion
Total Dollars Spent - $1.63 billion
Percentage - 91.3%

11-12:
Total Cap Dollars - $1.93 billion
Total Dollars Spent - $1.77 billion
Percentage - 91.5%

12-13:
Total Cap Dollars - $2.11 billion
Total Dollars Spent - $1.82 billion
Percentage - 86.5%

13-14:
Total Cap Dollars - $1.93 billion
Total Dollars Spent - $1.87 billion
Percentage - 96.7%

14-15:
Total Cap Dollars - $2.07 billion
Total Dollars Spent - $1.91 billion
Percentage - 92.1%

If "market forces" were driving up player salaries, you would expect to see a higher percentage of cap dollars being spent on player contracts (because you're claiming teams that wouldn't normally spend as much are spending more). But that hasn't happened. 12-13 was a bit lower than usual because of the lockout, and 13-14 was higher because the salary cap was scaled back by $6.0 billion, however we're back to 92% in 14-15.

It's plain as day. In 09-10, teams could spend $170 billion on player salaries. Now they can spend $207 billion in 2014-15. A $307 million increase. That's where the "inflation" comes from.

 

[manilaNJ]

A list of stats-oriented writers/bloggers on twitter, by team: http://www.secondcityhockey.com/2014/8/8/5984435/nhl-stats-focused-writers-guide

Compiled into a list on twitter:
https://twitter.com/RegressedPDO/lists/stats-sites-blogs-hockey

Useless til September, but there for when you feel like drowning in possession numbers and zone entries/exits during the season.

Editing to add another article.
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-nhl-dives-into-the-advanced-stats-pool/
Great work, as always, by Sean McIndoe (Down Goes Brown) on trying to reasonably answer most of the objections to using/looking into advanced stats.

If you're general response is this:
-Advanced stats are nice, but they don’t tell the whole story
-If advanced stats are so great, why does [advanced stat] say [star player] isn’t as good as [obviously inferior player]?
-If advanced stats are so great, why do they say this team that got shelled last night played well?
-If advanced stats are so predictive, why did this prediction turn out wrong?

It might be worth a read.
But, of course, this is the most important part of it all:

Numbers aren’t for everyone, and nobody should have to feel like they need a math degree to enjoy sports.

Some movie fans love to watch the behind-the-scenes “making of” feature and learn as much as they can about a favorite film; others just want to watch the movie and be done with it. Neither side is right or wrong; they just have a different idea of how to enjoy something.

Similarly, if you just don’t like hearing (or reading) about advanced stats, that’s your call. Assuming you’re not getting paid to know this stuff, nobody should feel like they’re being browbeaten into knowing the numbers. Lots of fans have found that getting their heads around analytics helps them understand the game better and makes the whole thing more fun, but some fans prefer not to get into that level of detail. That’s fine, and you should feel free to tag out when the topic comes up.

 

[JimEIV]

For all you young guys out there, here is all you need to know about advanced stats...watch closely, this is important.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

aka "PLEAAAAAAAAAASE LOU, JUST GIVE US SOMEONE WHO CAN SCORE."

 

[manilaNJ]

This just in: New Jersey continues to be a weird team that defies the numbers*

The guy who runs HockeyAnalysis.com (the provider of my favorite stat, WOWYs) did a write up on zone entries effect overall success.
He used Corey Sznajder's (@shutdownline) data from his tracking project to analyze how a. defending the opposition at the blue line and b. successfully entering across the opposing blue line correlate to overall success in the regular season.

New Jersey had one of the better carry in differentials, but was the only team in the upper echelon to miss the playoffs. (Oh, hey, what an unfamiliar concept)
The San Jose Sharks seem to be our opposites in that respect.

Here's the whole write up: Team Zone Entry Data and Predicting Standings

This one isn't a surprise to me, though. I asked the guy doing the tracking project, probably when he was about half way through, where NJ ranked among teams at successful carry ins into the offensive zone. Unsurprisingly, NJ is one of the worst.

There's a lot to that..
-Lack of footspeed
-Lack of transitional talent
-2 of the worst breakout dmen in the league (Sal/Volch)
-Systematic limitations where dump & chase is opted for rather than resorted to
-and so on

Anyway, this has been the point I've been hammering on about in here for the most part.
Better transition play (better breakouts, better passing, less predictability) could really ramp up the success this team finds. It starts with a younger, more mobile blueline.
If nothing else, it will create offense to offset an overall lack of talent.
Cleaner entries = more shots, more scoring chances and often (but not always) higher team shooting %s

Team defense, as always, is saving the team from really falling off a cliff. They're excellent at shutting down the opposition from entering the defensive zone. That's not news either.
Anyway, hopefully the current personnel can find ways to move more efficiently through the neutral zone without making it easier going back the other way (like that oddball stretch of games post-Olympic break)

 

[Devils731]

Corey Pronman tweeted a link to an interesting paper on when to pull the goalie.

http://people.stat.sfu.ca/~tim/papers/goalie.pdf

The summary being that teams are way too conservative in pulling their goalie.

 

[NJDevs26]

That was a topic last year when Patrick Wah started pulling the goalie with 2:30 left and had success with it, then more coaches started to go along with the merits of doing it sooner.

 

[manilaNJ]

I did one of these for the defense in the Gelinas thread. Thought I'd throw out one for the forwards as well.

The green dot in the middle marked with a Z is Zubrus.
The minuscule yellow dot to the right marked with a T is Ruutu.

Some notes:

Jagr. That's all.

It's clear that PDB is trying to get the most offensively out of Zajac and Elias, even if they're 2 of the better defensive forwards on the team.
I added in Cammalleri and Havlat to see where they'd fit in the mix of things.
If Cammalleri gets lined up along side Jagr & Zajac, his minutes look like they could be easier than the ones he saw in Calgary. That might be good thing for his potential production here.

Havlat only played half the season and had some injury issues. I should have left him off entirely; those numbers don't reflect much of anything.

Bernier's numbers are thrown off by his stints with Elias, but, in comparison to the top offensive guys, the 4th liners have had a clear role here. Quenneville does something very similar in Chicago.

 

[manilaNJ]

For whoever is interested, Progressive Hockey has gone a step beyond WOWYs and added a function to look up the stats for line combinations and defense pairings:

http://www.progressivehockey.com/p/blog-page.html

Not a whole lot to takeaway from last season in that regard. Because of injuries and stagnation there weren't a lot of lines that played together enough minutes to get a large enough sample size.

You can look up past seasons, too, if you're curiosity runs that deep (like mine )

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

On that note, @regressedpdo posted this today. It paints the Greene-Fayne pairing in a pretty uh.....flattering light.

 

[manilaNJ]

I typically defend Phaneuf- not that I'm a fan, I just think he's a better player than advertised- that is hysterical, though.

He shed Gunnarsson, maybe dropping the larger anchor in Carlyle will help his case a little more.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

but I thought Fayne wasn't any good according to some?

 

[The 29th Pick]

but I thought Fayne wasn't any good according to some?

no, he was only good because Greene carried him

 

[Devils731]

Light article on how some numbers are being used.

http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/11634536/los-angeles-kings-prove-advanced-stats-matter

 

[DenisSamson3]

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

Is the expected Corsi derived from zone starts?

 

[DenisSamson3]

Is the expected Corsi derived from zone starts?

Thanks mod, did not know this thread existed. Its been a while.

Stray I got it from this TSN link. http://www.tsn.ca/devils-have-earned-their-poor-record-1.198633 It talks about the Devils in general.

 

[DenisSamson3]

Is the expected Corsi derived from zone starts?

"What I’ve done here is sorted each forward and defensemen by ice time, then compared the respective player’s Corsi% against the league average player in that role (e.g. first line forward, second-pairing defender – with HockeyGraphs supplying the “expected” numbers)."

 

[DenisSamson3]

Here's another one:

Merrill is really interesting.