Kings Article: Alec Martinez Extension Might Be a Mistake

[Muzzinga]

Pretty sure the 9th Commandment is "Thou shall not speak ill of the Martinez"

 

[Jason Lewis]

I've made numerous remarks citing Martinez's sheltered minutes before. Sorry if I didn't feel like typing them all up again.

Martinez has excelled when he has played on the third pairing. In the past, when there were more demands of him, he struggled. He had plenty of powerplay time, with very little penalty killing time.

Now this season, I agree, he has looked better. I also appreciate his ability to play on both the right and left side.

But I don't believe the performance to date has warranted a salary of a top four defenseman, when he has only had to be a top four defenseman for a quarter of a season.

Edit: Also wanted to add I avoided getting into detail, because often times people here aren't very good at discussing dissenting opinions without resorting to rudeness or trash talking. This thread littered with calling the article "trash" and your smartass remark about how "I did an incredible job supporting my statement" when I simply said there's merit to the article just further proves that point.

You (general you) can make this place absolutely no fun discussing issues at times.

You've nailed my biggest concern. He is essentially making 3-4 money, but hasn't yet succeeded on a consistent basis with 3-4 minutes. This year he is playing closer to it...with an average of almost 20, and has been in slump mode except for the last few.

Overall they are paying for potential though. He HAS played well with those minutes in the past but not consistently.

It's a decently risky contract if he ends up being just a 5-6. Standard if he settles into 3-4 as he enters his prime.

 

[MsMeow]

Those are 4 minutes of my life I'll never get back. This is the problem with people who are so friggin' absorbed with stats, they forget to actually watch the player. He has been one of our best players this season and he's not afraid to shoot the puck (yes, Drew, I'm looking at you!)

 

[PJ Kings Hockey]

Edit: Also wanted to add I avoided getting into detail, because often times people here aren't very good at discussing dissenting opinions without resorting to rudeness or trash talking. This thread littered with calling the article "trash" and your smartass remark about how "I did an incredible job supporting my statement" when I simply said there's merit to the article just further proves that point.

You (general you) can make this place absolutely no fun discussing issues at times.

I agree. I make a point of reading an article when I see that Sheng Peng wrote it. I enjoy reading analytical, dispassionate dissenting opinions that challenge me to look at the nitty-gritty of a player's game. I'm glad we still have Marty, but whether it's an overpayment in money or term is an interesting argument, SP. I'm going to start looking closer at the numbers.

 

[King'sPawn]

You've nailed my biggest concern. He is essentially making 3-4 money, but hasn't yet succeeded on a consistent basis with 3-4 minutes. This year he is playing closer to it...with an average of almost 20, and has been in slump mode except for the last few.

Overall they are paying for potential though. He HAS played well with those minutes in the past but not consistently.

It's a decently risky contract if he ends up being just a 5-6. Standard if he settles into 3-4 as he enters his prime.

Exactly, which is why I think the article has merit.

From a presentation point of view, the article does overload the reader with numbers, charts, and statistics. Usually that approach is easier to read when there's another subject of comparison, to illustrate where they're going. The comparison of Martinez to himself of the past just isn't as effective or convincing, especially if the writer wants people to agree on a very debateable topic.

But when you sort through it, and read the principle arguments, it's a fair question.

Honest question: if Dwight King, from the same draft year, looked like the Kings' best player this season for the same amount of time while on the second line, how many people would feel comfortable getting 6 years/$4 million, which is a fair rate for a second liner?

 

[scramble91]

Those are 4 minutes of my life I'll never get back. This is the problem with people who are so friggin' absorbed with stats, they forget to actually watch the player. He has been one of our best players this season and he's not afraid to shoot the puck (yes, Drew, I'm looking at you!)

One of the best players? Better than who? Not better than Drew, not better than muzzin... Then who comparable is he better than? (Comparing a pmd to a shd is like comparing apples and subarus)

I admit, he has played well considering playing on the right side. But how can he be called one of the best players, when that player doesn't face the highest competition regularly?

That's also dangerous ground when using the eyeball test vs stats... People's eyes all see different things. I see a elite 3rd pairing pmd on the kings because my eyeball test tells me he isn't better than Drew, muzzin or voynov.

All that being said, he has surprised me lately with his first pass and now he is starting to avoid the forecheckers and getting the puck out quicker.

 

[Kings4thecup]

These stats used in the article are useful, but only show one part of the game. Martinez absolutely passes the eye test when on the ice. Does he make mistakes? Yes, but so does every player out there. He uses his speed in the defensive zone to make of for mistakes, plays larger than his size, and is real good with his stick.

On the offensive side of the puck, he has great vision, loves to get the puck on net, and is very good at attacking the net in the 5 man unit. I thought Amart has looked very good the last few games. Especially QB'ing the powerplay. I think Martinez has been under-valued on this team for a while. Sutter was always afraid to use him in the past, but when he would get in the game, he would bring it and is very useful.

I think it's a good signing, term was long, but more than fair deal for this player. DL loves to give out multi-year deals, but this one doesn't really concern me. I think we will see more out of Martinez as he continues to learn.

 

[CowMix]

I don't see anymore concerns at all for the Martinez contract over Muzzin and Voynovs. All of them have equal risk. Although with the off-ice problems Voynovs has become the riskiest contract of the 3.

 

[Frolov 6'3]

I'm surprided nobody has noticed that Voynov has played horrible since january last year. In the playoffs he was a turn over machine and was constantly overmatched. He has regressed quite a bit since 2013 IMO.

Martinez might not face the best competition but he's doing a better job than him but I'm on the fence with this deal.


I also agree with Kings' Pawn, like always. He is one of the few who doesnt take everything for granted.

 

[scramble91]

I'm surprided nobody has noticed that Voynov has played horrible since january last year. In the playoffs he was a turn over machine and was constantly overmatched. He has regressed quite a bit since 2013 IMO.

Martinez might not face the best competition but he's doing a better job than him but I'm on the fence with this deal.


I also agree with Kings' Pawn, like always. He is one of the few who doesnt take everything for granted.

Voynov really did have his slump last year. People also forget, it was his first full season with the kings. When the season started he was looking a lot sharper IMO. But I think voynovs is a better dman than Martinez at a younger age (and more upside)....now the legal ordeal might prevent any of us knowing what the reality or his potential could have been.

 

[bmr]

Martinez hasn't really gotten a chance to be in a top-4 D role. He has been brought along slowly, but Sutter now know what he brings to this team. He has been averaging pretty close to 20 minutes this year and i'd argue that he's been one of our best D-men all year. He's also our most versatile D-man..which I think the article needs to take into account. He can play both sides and is used in a variety of different situations. A pretty nice luxury. At 4 mill, I think he's a bargain.

From the last game:
I really liked his creativity on the PP against Philly. He always seems to know the right time to pinch and move up in a play. He is very mobile, has a great shot and also underrated for his physical play.

 

[Fishhead]

Why does the article keep saying he got 3-4 money? Alec gave up UFA years. At this point in time, no one can say what the market value over the next few years is going to be for 3-4 type guys. It could be 4M, it could be 3M, it could be 5M. No one knows. I'm not sure how you can classify this as a "hope" contract for the future when no one knows if it's even going to be overpriced in the future.

It's impossible to evaluate his contract at this time, so why even try? Plus, tossing in a bunch of situational advanced stats to support an argument just shows that what is being presented is a reach.

Really, the only stat that is important is wins, and I think those who really follow the Kings are familiar with the team's record with and without Alec in the lineup. It's not a small sample size, either, it's over several seasons. For whatever reason, this team wins far more when he's in the lineup, end of story. I think that's well worth his contract.

 

[Sheng Peng]

Even if you hated it, I appreciate you taking the time to read my work. For those who had issue, I promise you that I watch every single game (and without a calculator)!

let's take some meaningless numbers from the past when Martinez got very little ice time

Martinez's positive reputation has been built a great deal from these "meaningless numbers" and "little ice time."

At this point, I will say that the numbers are concerning, but it is a small sample...That said, we should look at this again in mid-February and see if there is an upward trend in his overall performance ...For now, I think it is too early to tell.

I certainly agree with this. I would've much preferred to write this article in February, after Martinez had soaked in a couple more months of tough minutes. But it's called a reaction piece for a reason!

you don't want to simply let him go and have another repeat of Phillipe Boucher

Now I love this comment because I loved me some second-coming Boucher (not the sloppy guy we first got from Buffalo, but the bust who was thinking about playing in Europe before he got another shot because of the Blake trade). For what it's worth, Boucher was fourth in team defensive ATOI from 2000-02, squarely a top-four guy before he got his big payout from Dallas.

Also, if you don't mind me asking, where in TW are you living? I was just there, visiting my wife's family in Taichung & mine in Zhudong.

I make a point of reading an article when I see that Sheng Peng wrote it.

Thank you!

Usually that approach is easier to read when there's another subject of comparison

Interesting point, who would you suggest as another subject of comparison? I thought about going more into Fayne/Martinez, but that didn't seem very interesting to me.

Oh, and I fixed this for you:

Honest question: if Dwight King, from the same draft year, looked like the Kings' best player this season for the same amount of time while on the second line AFTER SCORING THE MOST TWO OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT GOALS IN FRANCHISE HISTORY, how many people would feel comfortable getting 6 years/$4 million, which is a fair rate for a second liner?

 

[takk]

Nvmd.

 

[ADifferentTim]

Those are 4 minutes of my life I'll never get back. This is the problem with people who are so friggin' absorbed with stats, they forget to actually watch the player. He has been one of our best players this season and he's not afraid to shoot the puck (yes, Drew, I'm looking at you!)

That's why Moneyball only works for regular season baseball games; if it were a championship-level success, then explain why Billy Beane hasn't won a World Series title with that system for at least a decade.

I deliberately mentioned that baseball concept in HFBoards, because of the fact I do not want to see this stats obsession affect playoff contention.

 

[Chain]

i actually think he's played even better since the signing. He's been very active in the pp's the last two games.

That's been my perception too.

 

[Chain]

That's why Moneyball only works for regular season baseball games; if it were a championship-level success, then explain why Billy Beane hasn't won a World Series title with that system for at least a decade.

I deliberately mentioned that baseball concept in HFBoards, because of the fact I do not want to see this stats obsession affect playoff contention.

Kind of off-topic, but that's not really because the stats aren't useful. It's just there are other factors to consider. In the case of "Moneyball" in baseball, some other teams started implementing those sort of statistics after seeing the success the A's had with it which will undermine any edge the A's garner from it - the Boston Red Sox are well known for it and used a similar stat-based strategy to help them win the World Series. And even the useful implementation of stats can't always counter the advantage of having no salary cap in baseball. In basketball, Pat Riley is well known for using stats in the NBA as well - he even created a scoring system for rating his players' defensively and has statisticians score them each game.

There's also the anomalies and things like injury and "luck" that are impossible to predict. It's impossible for stats to account for everything. Just as it's impossible to account for everything using an "old school" approach. None of that means stats can't be extremely useful. We do have to be careful not to focus too much on the wrong stats though, which I think is the problem with the article.

For the record, I think resigning A-Mart to his contract was a good move and is justified for a player of his caliber.

 

[Sheng Peng]

We do have to be careful not to focus too much on the wrong stats though

What stats would you have focused on?

 

[Trolfoli]

The money is right on for AMart's contract.... he probably would have gotten more on the open market....

Now is he worth the money? Yes this team is built on defense and he has shown through 2 cups that he is good enough to get it done.

Is he the best D in the world at that price? Who cares, he is a great fit on the Kings.

Now what would the cost be of replacing him? Signing a UFA would cost just as much, may not fit well... When/if someone from Manchester is ready to replace him or someone else I'm sure Lombardi could work a trade.

Personally I didn't think Lombardi would sign AMart because of the cap hit required to retain him means you're going to lose a vet from somewhere. There is no arguing though that AMart is a big piece on the defense, PP, PK and able to switch right and left to cover for injuries.

I 100% appreciate the troll factor of the article though! Keep up the good work!

 

[ADifferentTim]

For the record, I think resigning A-Mart to his contract was a good move and is justified for a player of his caliber.

I purposely did not quote the earlier paragraphs of your quoted post, knowing I actually agree. In addition, I actually agree with you on this one and thus quoted it for emphasis.

Back on topic, seeing how he had a nail injury, it actually takes two weeks maximum to fully heal; I should know, my hallux's entire nailplate got removed and took me a full seven days time period to grow a new nailplate (read: full recovery).

As for the main article from Jewels from the Crown, Sheng is overreacting, because toes, fingers, and nails tend to heal fast.

 

[Rorschach]

If there's no NTC, there's never any REAL mistake.

 

[kilowatt]

My biggest problem is actually this line:

Sure, past deployment doesn't necessarily indicate one's true value or potential—I don't live in a world where Ellerby or Regehr are superior blueliners to Martinez.

Regehr is the superior defenseman, in my opinion. He's just isn't getting any younger.

 

[Captain Mittens*]

That's why Moneyball only works for regular season baseball games; if it were a championship-level success, then explain why Billy Beane hasn't won a World Series title with that system for at least a decade.

But you ignore that a moneyball team won the world series in 2004 and 2007 and that every team uses sabremetrics

 

[kingsfan28]

Those are 4 minutes of my life I'll never get back. This is the problem with people who are so friggin' absorbed with stats, they forget to actually watch the player. He has been one of our best players this season and he's not afraid to shoot the puck (yes, Drew, I'm looking at you!)

You watch him when he gets the puck, and you watch Drew, big difference
. Marty get his shot off within mila seconds of receiving it. Drew has to wait, hesitate, do a deak, wait for the defenseman to block the lane, then wind up his shot and fire. If Doughty would get all that other crap out of his shot, he may have 7 or 8 goals by now, that is if he decides to shoot it in the first place.

 

[MynameisKing]

But.....his magic jazz hand pixie dust!!! C'mon, he's underpaid for that alone!!!