Agree and disagree, Brook. You are spot on that the fish rots from the head down. Yes, Sather cooked the dinner, but how much input did AV have in the ingredients?
Sather ran off after he depleted the farm system, traded away 4 consecutive first round picks and put the team into salary cap hell. But AV got a say in the matter. Or so I believe. I truly think that the team is molded into exactly the image that he wanted. A fancy pants, no meat and potatoes, team whose play is predicated on the quick strikes and tic tac toe passing.
Unfortunately, he has no answer when the team is not allowed open ice. And he has had no answer. The failure to be able to adjust is all on AV. Special teams failure is also ALL coaching. Just as Torts took the credit for a good PK and a poorus PP, so too does AV shoulder this blame.
The trust in vets as opposed to younger players, has long been his holdmark. I can only think of Mclrath here, as Sather has depopulated the farm system to the point that the waiver wire is a better choice for call ups than Hartford. And that is scary.
I do not think that AV gets fired this year. This year will be what it will be. Truthfully, he may get all of next season as well. If he makes the playoffs this year (and I think that they will limp in) and misses next year, he may get into the following season after that as well.
I don't think Sather is out of the picture--he, Gorton and AV sat together in the stands during practice today while Arniel was on the ice. And while I certainly think many coaches do have imput on personnel decision--especially in evaluating them--I'm skeptical that their views or even the way they use them are the main reason why a player is signed/retained/traded.
I also think the fundamental problems is that the pieces on the ice don't fit very well. Chemistry is a very fragile thing and the team lost more than it appeared they would on paper after last season. That's on management--I suspect they completely ignored the possibility that the cap would not keep increasing and thought they would always have more room than they actually do. It became a domino effect--they traded away or lost several players who provided a lot of intangibles and specific skills and were forced to replace them on the cheap or gamble that younger players would be able to quickly grow into replacements. The coaching staff does bear some blame because they have not adopted well, but there are not many who would be doing as well, much less better than them.
Great teams rarely look as great on paper--it's a team effort and to win a Stanley Cup most teams have to be more than the sum of their parts. This group may never even equal the sum of their parts: the lack of chemistry on the ice is painfully obvious. But, it's also possible they find a grove and develop into something more. It's just getting too late into the season to be optimistic it will happen.
AV gets another chance, but the outcome may not be any better due to decisions already made. Given the realities of the NMCs and salary cap constraints, it may not be possible to trade for/sign a better cast of characters. What we see may be what we get unless several more prospects/young players (with cough,Hayes and Kreider, cough leading the list) elevating their level of play soon.
Edit: finally, also think that AV is not being any different than most coaches in relying on his veterans. Part of developing young talent is not pushing them too far too fast. Better to bring them along slowly than force them into more critical roles too soon. Could McIlrath being playing more? Sure, but the real test will come next year when he's expected to come to camp ready to fill a spot and play a more a more intregal role in the team's success. Ditto Lindberg who will probably be expected to take over for Moore. Right now, leaning on them to carry the team is very risky and veterans do regain their footing and find some of their old magic without crumbling under the pressure. In any case, without them this team is stuck where it is. Of all the young ones, only Miller has responded well to challenge--there have been times when several others appear to be trying to play themselves off the team (even Stepan can be mentioned here). It's a big challenge to step up and not only elevate your level of play, but also take more responsibility for leading the group--that's true in sports and in "regular" life.