After Dahlin, how do you tank a year?

[WingsMJN2965]

18 year old Dahlin isn't suddenly turning this team around.

 

[Pavels Dog]

18 year old Dahlin isn't suddenly turning this team around.

18 year old Matthews isn't turning that team around
Removing Duchene isn't turning that team around
John Tortorella isn't turning that team around

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

This is a problem I am hopeful we have to try to figure out. Dahlin doesn't make us great overnight, he will take a bit of time to control the game. I do think he transitions the best to the NHL of a high level d prospect since Doughty. I guess Ekblad without the injuries, but I think it is more of those guys in terms of how quickly Dahlin does become a reliable player.

When you look at this roster though, there is no way I see us climbing outside of the top 10 next year. Getting a Rasmus Dahlin this year or a Jack Hughes next year would be massive for this franchise. It changes the whole complexion of what our rebuild looks like.

 

[Hen Kolland]

18 year old Matthews isn't turning that team around
Removing Duchene isn't turning that team around
John Tortorella isn't turning that team around

I feel like this was reaching to make a point. Matthews was a huge component of that team taking the next step, but he isn't the sole reason they turned around. Nylander, Marner, etc. have all really progressed substantially. Just adding Matthews without those players doesn't make them a contender.

Adding Dahlin to what we have right now isn't making us a contender, but that doesn't mean that any one or more of Larkin, Mantha, 2Z, Athanasiou, Hronek, Cholowski, Svechnikov won't take a significant step forward and surprise us. The problem we will have with JUST adding Dahlin is that we still won't score enough. Something's got to give

 

[obey86]

The Red Wings are going to trade for Erik Karlsson and sign John Tavares this offseason anyways, they shouldn't be tanking

Zetterberg - Tavares - Bertuzzi
Abdelkader - Larkin - Mantha
Rasmussen - Nielsen - Svechnikov
Helm - Glendening - Frk

Karlsson - Dekeyser
Daley - Dahlin
Ericsson - Hronek

(Traded Nyquist and AA, Kronwall LTIRed)

 

[Pavels Dog]

I feel like this was reaching to make a point. Matthews was a huge component of that team taking the next step, but he isn't the sole reason they turned around. Nylander, Marner, etc. have all really progressed substantially. Just adding Matthews without those players doesn't make them a contender.

Adding Dahlin to what we have right now isn't making us a contender, but that doesn't mean that any one or more of Larkin, Mantha, 2Z, Athanasiou, Hronek, Cholowski, Svechnikov won't take a significant step forward and surprise us. The problem we will have with JUST adding Dahlin is that we still won't score enough. Something's got to give

It’s just funny that people want us to tank 1-2 more years as if you can ever finish bottom 5 and feel ”just one more good player and we’ll be a contender!”.
Turning around from bottom 5 to playoff team will almost always be a huge, unexpected turnaround driven by one or two big changes/additions that ripple through the roster.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

18 year old Matthews isn't turning that team around
Removing Duchene isn't turning that team around
John Tortorella isn't turning that team around

18 year old Matthews on this Detroit roster still ain't getting us to the playoffs. Quit comparing apples and oranges. Toronto was in the tank for years and collected multiple good players before making it back into the playoffs, and even now appear to be making a quick exit.

I notice you chose Matthews as an example rather than McDavid...

 

[Pavels Dog]

18 year old Matthews on this Detroit roster still ain't getting us to the playoffs. Quit comparing apples and oranges. Toronto was in the tank for years and collected multiple good players before making it back into the playoffs, and even now appear to be making a quick exit.

I notice you chose Matthews as an example rather than McDavid...

The point was that it's never really "expected" that a team will quickly turn from bottom 5 to playoff team. But generally adding an impact player on your biggest position of need will have big implications. Toronto's biggest need was #1C and they got it. Edmonton's biggest need was #1D and they got a #1C. Extremely helpful but they still need that D.

 

[Redder Winger]

"You" means you, personally. You're in charge of the roster that just miraculously got Dahlin, and Ilitch tells you he wants another high pick the year after. What do you do?

Bear in mind you can't undo what's already been done (bad contracts are in place, you can't trade them just because you want to- you are starting the day after drafting Dahlin with the actual current situation in place). Dahlin makes our D a lot better. We assume the players will not purposely tank even if you tell them to. Assume Blashill will also not purposely tank even if you tell him to. And even last season, the worst Wings team we've seen in decades was "only" 5th from last with basically no prayer of ever catching the Sabres.

What's your plan?

** I'm worried the tone of this post seems argumentative. It's not intended that way. I'm just curious and want to see strategies and interesting ideas.

My plan?
Keep Blashill behind the bench.

Honestly, Dahlin, even if he's all he's cracked up to be, doesn't change the immediate future of the Red Wings overnight.
He would replace Mike Green and that's about it.

It's around years 3, 4 and 5 that he starts hitting his stride and year 7-8-9 that he enters his prime. At least that's how it often goes with defense.

 

[Redder Winger]

He’s the best defensive prospect in over 40 years...

$50 says that, in 5 years, nobody's calling him the best defenseman in 45 years.

 

[Flowah]

Kronwall - Dahlin
DeKeyser - Hronek
Cholowski - Jensen

Three rookies.

Even if Dahlin is as advertised, 3 rookies + Kronwall top pair + Jensen = we're probably still going tanking boys. I guarantee it if DDK doesn't rebound a little.

18 year old Matthews isn't turning that team around
Removing Duchene isn't turning that team around
John Tortorella isn't turning that team around

Matthews didn't do it alone. He walked into a franchise that was on the cusp. Great coach and other great young players. Marner is good, Nylander is good, Reilly is good. Kadri and Bozak aren't awful. Their D still needs a little work which is being shown right now as they get manhandled by Boston.

Tortorella had a dog record with other teams until he finally joined a team with some talent and then started winning. Torts wasn't the difference. If he was the difference why did the Rangers and Canucks both struggle under his watch?

It's the team far more than any coach or single player.

 

[Redder Winger]

The point was that it's never really "expected" that a team will quickly turn from bottom 5 to playoff team. But generally adding an impact player on your biggest position of need will have big implications. Toronto's biggest need was #1C and they got it. Edmonton's biggest need was #1D and they got a #1C. Extremely helpful but they still need that D.

I think Matthews, with a better coach, could get Detroit into the playoffs.
Toronto's defense stinks. It isn't much better than Detroit's.

You run:
Matthews/Larkin/Zetterberg/Nyquist/Mantha/Athanasiou at a team, you're going to score a shit ton of goals.

Franchise centers can quickly turn a team's fortunes around.
We've seen this over and over and over again.

 

[Redder Winger]

This is a problem I am hopeful we have to try to figure out. Dahlin doesn't make us great overnight, he will take a bit of time to control the game. I do think he transitions the best to the NHL of a high level d prospect since Doughty. I guess Ekblad without the injuries, but I think it is more of those guys in terms of how quickly Dahlin does become a reliable player.

When you look at this roster though, there is no way I see us climbing outside of the top 10 next year. Getting a Rasmus Dahlin this year or a Jack Hughes next year would be massive for this franchise. It changes the whole complexion of what our rebuild looks like.

Too early to say on Hughes. But yeah, getting Dahlin changes the complexion of the franchise.
However, then Dahlin has to live up to it.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

The point was that it's never really "expected" that a team will quickly turn from bottom 5 to playoff team. But generally adding an impact player on your biggest position of need will have big implications. Toronto's biggest need was #1C and they got it. Edmonton's biggest need was #1D and they got a #1C. Extremely helpful but they still need that D.

It certainly helps, I just don't see it turning the team around by itself. You've still got 40 minutes a night that Dahlin isn't on the ice. Detroit's gonna need another top pairing defender to go with him so that a guy like DeKeyser can assume 2nd pairing responsibilities where he's suited. Even then, even for as good as Dahlin may be, for defenders, it usually takes a couple years before they really set the league on fire.

You run:
Matthews/Larkin/Zetterberg/Nyquist/Mantha/Athanasiou at a team, you're going to score a **** ton of goals.

They'd have to, because our defense still blows lol.

 

[Redder Winger]

They'd have to, because our defense still blows lol.

I agree.
But Toronto's defense

Rielly/Hansey
Gardiner/Zaitsev
Dermott/Polak

Rielly - Good skater. Good offensively. Awful in his own zone.
Hainsey - LOL.
Gardiner - A little better than Cody Franson. Nice offense, but a defensive liability.
Zaitsev - Tons of tools, but still looks lost on a regular basis.
Dermott - Run of the mill.
Polak - If you had an airtight D, he'd be fine as a sixth defenseman. But when your D has holes, this guy is exposed.

Toronto lacks a #1 and maybe a #2.
Detroit probably lacks a #1, #2 and #3.
The real difference is that Rielly and maybe Zaitsev can still grow .
Our guys are what they are. In fact, most are declining.