NFL: AFC Playoff Picture

[misterchainsaw]

Pretty sure Miami loses control of their own destiny for a playoff spot if they lose on Sunday.. That would mean they would have to beat the Jets in Week 18 AND have Buffalo beat the Pats. (praying that the Bills will still have to win that game to wrap up the #1 seed.)

You are correct - updated. Think I was only thinking of the Jets scenario for some reason where even if the Jets won and Dolphins lost they would still catch them with a win over them in week 18. .

 

[misterchainsaw]

OK. So we have clarity:

- If the Chiefs win and the Bills lose, KC is the #1 seed and will host the championship game regardless of opponent
- If the Chiefs and Bills win, KC is the #1 seed, BUF is the #2 seed, CIN is the #3 seed, and any championship game between BUF and KC will be played at a neutral site.
- If the Chiefs win, Bengals win, and the Bills lose, then KC is #1, CIN is #2, and BUF is #3. KC hosts all games.
- If the Chiefs lose and the Bills win, BUF is #1, KC is #2, and CIN is #3.
- If the Chiefs lose, the Bills lose, and the Bengals win, KC is #1, CIN is #2, BUF is #3, and any championship game between KC and either of the other two teams will be played at a neutral site.

- The winner of Jacksonville/Tennessee is #4

- If the Chargers win, they are #5 and Baltimore is #6.

If Baltimore also wins, a 3v6 matchup of CIN-BAL will have home field decided by a coin flip.​

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- If Baltimore wins and the Chargers lose, BAL is #5 and LAC is #6.

- If New England wins, they are #7.
- If New England loses and Miami wins, Miami is #7
- If New England loses, Miami loses, and Pittsburgh wins, Pittsburgh is #7
- If New England loses, Miami loses, Pittsburgh loses, and Jacksonville loses, Jacksonville is #7
- If New England loses, Miami loses, Pittsburgh loses, and Jacksonville wins, New England is #7.

 

[John Price]

 

[StreetHawk]

Means Buf has no reason to play Allen or anyone else who is nicked up vs NE. Not good for Mia or Pitt.

 

[Blitzkrug]

Means Buf has no reason to play Allen or anyone else who is nicked up vs NE. Not good for Mia or Pitt.

Both teams have themselves to blame.

If you're relying on other teams to take care of business for you, you don't deserve to be there.

 

[StreetHawk]

Both teams have themselves to blame.

If you're relying on other teams to take care of business for you, you don't deserve to be there.

True. Just the reality of the nfl and the tie breakers. Win your games and you control your fate. But it does change what teams opt to do in week 18. But they have earned the right to make their own call.

 

[JTBF81]

Buffalo should still play their regs, as although they were denied the bye, a win tomorrow still means an AFC title game between them and K.C. would be at a neutral site.

 

[Ace]

Buffalo should still play their regs, as although they were denied the bye, a win tomorrow still means an AFC title game between them and K.C. would be at a neutral site.

They will play to win. The difference between a neutral site and in KC is huge. Especially mentally for a team whose last two seasons ended on that field

 

[Megahab]

This is only my second season fully following football, but even without the possibility of a neutral site AFC title game, don't the Bills still have incentive to play in that they'd prefer the #2 seed over the #3 seed?

 

[StreetHawk]

This is only my second season fully following football, but even without the possibility of a neutral site AFC title game, don't the Bills still have incentive to play in that they'd prefer the #2 seed over the #3 seed?

2 plays NE, Mia, Pitt in that order if there is a tie breaker among those 3 teams.
Bal, no clue on health of Lamar who has not practiced in like 5 weeks so far.
Chargers, talking a Cali team that plays in perfect conditions at home traveling to the east to play in whatever wind/snow is going to happen in Buffalo.

Doubt there is much to be concerned about where you finish. 2 is better to host 3 seeded Cin if both advance vs going on the road in the next round.