Advanced Stats

[Ceremony]

I swear to god if I see the word "sustainable" one more time...

Someone with more skill than I should do a gif for next season in the same vein as the Montreal/Boston wheel of excuses.

"Unsustainable!"
"Regression!"
"Moral victory!"
"Career year!"
"Goalie bailout!"

And so on.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

This leads to something that's always been one of my biggest questions., especially when people say a lottery team was not a legitimate division winner. It's not like the Avs had one fluke year in a sea of terrible, they also haven't had a linear trajectory of anything. How does one explain a team goes on this trajectory of points: 95, 69, 95, 68, 88, 67 (projected), 112. I seriously have no idea. Was the team ever as bad as it seemed? Everyone just wants to say they certainly were never that good in the good years.

Everything just went to ******* in lockout shortened season and I think even the team noticed the best thing would be to tank. It worked out. It was totally worth MacKinnon.

 

[Freudian]

I had a hunch that the teams with good corsi numbers also had the defenders most willing to shoot. Turns out there is a very strong positive correlation between ES corsi and ratio of shots taken by the defensemen on a team (the value of R was 0.98). I only tested this season so it's possible there is some randomness to this.

So if Avs want to impress, they might want to throw the puck on net from the point every chance they get like the teams that normally outshoot Avs. I'm not sure Avs would win more real victories, but the moral victories will be glorious.

 

[Avs_19]

Wasn't corsi better under Sacco? Everyone would just fire it at the net as soon as they crossed the blueline. I hated that and it didn't lead to many more scoring chances, it just looked prettier in the boxscore.

I like the way we played this past season. Get another defenseman or two who can skate and move the puck and we'll be fine.

 

[Freudian]

Wasn't corsi better under Sacco? Everyone would just fire it at the net as soon as they crossed the blueline. I hated that and it didn't lead to many more scoring chances, it just looked prettier in the boxscore.

I like the way we played this past season. Get another defenseman or two who can skate and move the puck and we'll be fine.

Yep.

2011-12 when Avs were 10th in Corsi (20th in the standings) Avs defenders took 598 shots in ES and this year they took 498.

I'm not saying your defenders shouldn't shoot, but when they're not particularly good at it and when the team doesn't have traffic it's not very effective.

 

[Bender]

Yep.

2011-12 when Avs were 10th in Corsi (20th in the standings) Avs defenders took 598 shots in ES and this year they took 498.

I'm not saying your defenders shouldn't shoot, but when they're not particularly good at it and when the team doesn't have traffic it's not very effective.

I think you need to stop confusing everyone with the facts.

Your well thought-out reasoning and logic have no place here. This is a place to discuss advanced stats.

 

[Pokecheque]

Yes, they were actually north of the Mendoza Line in terms of possession under Sacco. I remember arguing with a guy on Twitter who claimed the '11-12 team was better than this year's because they supposedly played like a team, whereas this year's was more like the "lucky" team of '09-10. I didn't mind telling him he was dead wrong. If anything, it was that '11-12 was lucky since seemingly no one apart from Downie and McGinn could reliably put the puck in the net. That team was better defensively than this year's, yes, but they were God-awful at the other end of the ice.

Good possession is not the end goal. It should merely be a byproduct of doing the right things. I'm confident once the Avs improve their blueline so that Roy doesn't feel the need to drop his forwards back and the defense takes better care of the puck, the possession numbers will improve by a substantial margin.

 

[Avs For Life]

I haven't read through this thread and maybe this is the purpose of this thread but is it me or are advanced stats overrated?

I get that we didn't have the best puck possession but at the same time we scored a lot off the rush.

With that said, I would love for us to work on our offensive zone possession for next year

 

[InjuredChoker]

I haven't read through this thread and maybe this is the purpose of this thread but is it me or are advanced stats overrated?

I get that we didn't have the best puck possession but at the same time we scored a lot off the rush.

With that said, I would love for us to work on our offensive zone possession for next year

i'm not sure if they are generally overrated but some people who use them have gone full Pejorative Slurs.

one team that is common with good puck possession teams and with good offensive teams is their zone entries. avs (ignoring time after barrie's injury) didn't have any problem with that. their top 6 can enter the zone with puck control, no problem. they don't need to dump and chase, lose it and go back to playing D. i think that explains partly avs higher sh%; they get slightly higher quality chances. other teams will focus on that next season when they play the avs, i'm sure.

i'd definitely like to see avs increase thei possession time in offensive zone.

imo they backed off and collapsed too much when the other had the puck, didn't pressure them enough in OZ and NZ when avs didn't have the puck. our F's can skate and play defense so i see no reason that can't be improved upon. i think with better D, roy would feel comfortable to play more aggressively.

the other is breakouts but that needs roster improvements on D. guenin is never going to spin away and make stretch passes when toews or parise is on the forecheck.

 

[Hasbro]

i'm not sure if they are generally overrated but some people who use them have gone full Pejorative Slurs.

It's been like reading a hockey version of It's All Over Fatman lately.

 

[Pokecheque]

i'm not sure if they are generally overrated but some people who use them have gone full Pejorative Slurs.

As opposed to guys like Steve Simmons who were like that to begin with.

 

[InjuredChoker]

As opposed to guys like Steve Simmons who were like that to begin with.

steve simmons ‏@simmonssteve 30. october
Good thing the Leafs don't play in the CHL. The CORSI hockey league. They're doing just fine in NHL, though.

 

[PepsiCenterMagic]

I remember arguing with a guy on Twitter who claimed the '11-12 team was better than this year's because they supposedly played like a team, whereas this year's was more like the "lucky" team of '09-10.

*EpicFacePalm*

 

[InjuredChoker]

*EpicFacePalm*

i'm not 100% sure but i think pronman indicated something like that too.

 

[PepsiCenterMagic]

i'm not 100% sure but i think pronman indicated something like that too.

*EpicFacePalm*

 

[PepsiCenterMagic]

On the blog page of hockeyanalysis.com, there is a great article on the misuse of possession stats. And perhaps the logical fallacies many indulge in citing them.

 

[Avelanche]

I wonder how sustainable that will ultimately be. If they have to rely on Varly having a career year every year they won't sustain success.

Case could be made the advanced stats show the Avs improving. They over pass, over cycle and can't play a good puck possession game yet still finished that strong. What happens when they learn to shoot more, get better with puck possession and get better at creating offense off of that puck possession. Avs are young with several pluggers on defense. They should be able to sustain this while improving the stats and becoming a more dominate team.

 

[Nzap]

Case could be made the advanced stats show the Avs improving. They over pass, over cycle and can't play a good puck possession game yet still finished that strong. What happens when they learn to shoot more, get better with puck possession and get better at creating offense off of that puck possession. Avs are young with several pluggers on defense. They should be able to sustain this while improving the stats and becoming a more dominate team.

Exactly. Even if we fall somewhat closer to earth we should be next season better in a few other areas leading to our fall not being that big. I hope.