Advanced Stats

jsalz16

Registered User
Feb 21, 2010
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Since most of the team stats are based on entire season, I'd be interested to see how the Avs have done in the second half or maybe since Olympics. Have their numbers improved, stayed the same? Any stats gurus out there or a link where you can look at it over a certain time period.
 

InjuredChoker

Registered User
Dec 25, 2011
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went up the second half. started to fall around january. continued to do so until around march. since then, steady but slow climb upwards. but still getting overall pretty bad numbers.

that's for rolling fenwick (un-blocked shot attempts).

http://www.extraskater.com/team/colorado-avalanche/2013

that's the site to go for adv. stats.


i'm not overly concerned though. avs corsi is worse than what it was for sacco. they are easily the better team. only oilers, sabres and leafs have worse adv. stats. there are lots of teams with better stats in that area who are worse teams.
 

Ivan13

Not posting anymore
May 3, 2011
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I like to look up the advanced stats, but you have to be careful with them, they only work if they're put in the right context, plus you can't make any valid conclusions using them without actually watching the games.
 

WarriorOfGandhi

Was saying Boo-urns
Jul 31, 2007
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every advanced stat tells you Colorado gets outshot, but since they have the 3rd highest shooting% and the 4th highest save% it doesn't matter
 

Huis Clos*

Guest
every advanced stat tells you Colorado gets outshot, but since they have the 3rd highest shooting% and the 4th highest save% it doesn't matter

I wonder how sustainable that will ultimately be. If they have to rely on Varly having a career year every year they won't sustain success.
 

TheStranger

Registered User
Jan 21, 2010
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Ottawa, Ontario
I wonder how sustainable that will ultimately be. If they have to rely on Varly having a career year every year they won't sustain success.

Because this will be the same lineup we will have forever until every player retires.

Roy is having the team do what they have to do with the lineup they have. Varlamov is bailing them out. The defense will be improved and things will get better when it does.
 

Ceremony

blahem
Jun 8, 2012
113,312
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I have more faith in Roy and whatever players he has to adapt to deal with problems than I do in a bunch of numbers insisting we're going to fail catastrophically at some point.
 

henchman21

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Advanced stats are useful, but are far from gospel. Advanced stats pretty much make the assumptions that all goalies are pretty much the same, and all shots are worth the same amount. Which inherently makes them inaccurate. IMO if advanced stats are to take the next step they need to do two things... incorporate a quality of shot statistic and they need to track carried/dumped/denied zone entries for and against players. The latter is starting to happen, but will take a bit before it gets standardized. The former is much more complicated as distance does not equal quality, nor does area on the ice... some thing has to be developed there. Much like baseball, it will take a while.
 

PepsiCenterMagic

Food is Great
Jul 17, 2013
651
44
Advanced stats are useful, but are far from gospel. Advanced stats pretty much make the assumptions that all goalies are pretty much the same, and all shots are worth the same amount. Which inherently makes them inaccurate. IMO if advanced stats are to take the next step they need to do two things... incorporate a quality of shot statistic and they need to track carried/dumped/denied zone entries for and against players. The latter is starting to happen, but will take a bit before it gets standardized. The former is much more complicated as distance does not equal quality, nor does area on the ice... some thing has to be developed there. Much like baseball, it will take a while.

Pretty much spot on.
 

PepsiCenterMagic

Food is Great
Jul 17, 2013
651
44
I wonder how sustainable that will ultimately be. If they have to rely on Varly having a career year every year they won't sustain success.

Everyone out there is worried about sustainability. Perhaps certain stats won't sustain, but others might rise in their fall. What will sustain is the roster, in fact it will improve.

In 4 years, we will have a....

Prime Varlamov,
Prime Duchene
25 Landeskog
22 MacKinnon
 

The Kingslayer

Registered User
Aug 26, 2004
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Everyone out there is worried about sustainability. Perhaps certain stats won't sustain, but others might rise in their fall. What will sustain is the roster, in fact it will improve.

In 4 years, we will have a....

Prime Varlamov,
Prime Duchene
25 Landeskog
22 MacKinnon


Cant wait for the guys to hit their primes. On a side note. Why are we being called the 'New Canucks' are you guys remaining umble'?
 

WarriorOfGandhi

Was saying Boo-urns
Jul 31, 2007
20,629
10,921
Denver, CO
Everyone out there is worried about sustainability. Perhaps certain stats won't sustain, but others might rise in their fall. What will sustain is the roster, in fact it will improve.

In 4 years, we will have a....

Prime Varlamov,
Prime Duchene
25 Landeskog
22 MacKinnon

Varlamov and Duchene are already in their primes.
 

Tommy Shelby

Registered User
Feb 26, 2012
7,466
4,855
Pffft, advanced stats are for nerds. Hockey isn't determined by numbers and calculations, it's determined by the 40 guys wearing jerseys and their coaches. You know who doesn't play hockey? Nerds.
 

tigervixxxen

Optimism=Delusional
Jul 7, 2013
53,061
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I like stats but not when they are used to cover up any logical question in an argument. The Corsi group still needs to explain how the Avs possession stats are supposed to be good when they don't play a possession type of game. Their possession stats are only usually good when losing to good teams, that seems counterintuitive. There needs to be a measure for scoring chances, which seems to be a better indicator. Also, I don't get who has even had a career year, is anyone going to argue Varly isn't this good of a goalie and it's a fluke.
 

InjuredChoker

Registered User
Dec 25, 2011
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I like stats but not when they are used to cover up any logical question in an argument. The Corsi group still needs to explain how the Avs possession stats are supposed to be good when they don't play a possession type of game. Their possession stats are only usually good when losing to good teams, that seems counterintuitive. There needs to be a measure for scoring chances, which seems to be a better indicator. Also, I don't get who has even had a career year, is anyone going to argue Varly isn't this good of a goalie and it's a fluke.

corsi group will answer that that's why avs are going to crash, bc they don't play possession type of game.

and that scoring chances have been shown to correlate very well with corsi.

it would be going back and forth, back and forth. all we can do is wait and see.
 

AVSfan2daMAX

Registered User
Nov 24, 2006
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5,532
The biggest issue I have with advanced stat geeks is that they completely dismiss the most important stat in hockey, wins. You don't need advanced stats to know if a team is good or not if you watch them. It feels like people who subscribe to advanced stats are more interested in statistical models than watching hockey games.

Secondly, saying the avalanche are lucky because they're having a bunch of career seasons is a bit ignorant without context.

25 year old defenceman
25 year old goalie
23 year old forward
23 year old forward
18 year old rookie

All of these players should be having good seasons. If guys like Stastny, McGinn, Parenteau, Tanguay, Mitchell etc. were having career years, I would be more concerned. But a bunch of young, high profile players?
 

Pokecheque

I’ve been told it’s spelled “Pokecheck”
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Don't let a few goofballs who know nothing about them and are using advanced stats as some way to take down the Avs' accomplishments this year mark the whole concept as useless.

Look, we all know the Avs will not be successful long-term if they don't address their defensive concerns. But it's not like the Avs have suddenly declared THE REBUILD IS OVER and aren't actively looking to improve themselves in every aspect of the game. All I asked for this year (and didn't get last year) was progress toward the goal, some sign that this team was starting to turn the corner. And boy, did I get that. Not saying the Avs are already a contender, but the Bruins team that won the Cup in 2011 gave up a TON of shots, and were bailed out a lot by Thomas. Now, they're a dominant possession team.

BTW, Paul Stastny's possession numbers are quite good. Even in that SJ game where Varly got shelled he maintained a dead-even Corsi rating. That's astounding to me and another reason why I think it's vital the Avs re-sign him. And frankly, most of the stars on this team aren't that far from having better possession numbers. Get rid of those few shifts where the puck seemingly gets stuck in the defensive zone and I doubt we'll be hearing much about this next year.

I like the advanced stats crowd a lot more than the meathead crowd who think when their team is struggling they need to "get tougher." That's what completely derailed a very skilled Buffalo team and is currently destroying the Maple Leafs. Roy acknowledges toughness and the need to set a physical tone, but he doesn't value it to the point where he goons it up like Carlyle does or overuses grinders and leaves skill players in the minors.

Roy actually values a lot of what advanced stats folks value, even if he doesn't actually use them. He emphasizes aggressive neutral zone play (which is a BIG reason why the Avs beat St. Louis like a door a couple games back), time spent in the attacking zone, and he prefers the team carry the puck rather than just chip it all over the place. I know he can't possibly like the collapsing system the Avs use right now but I understand why he's using it since the defense isn't quite good enough to utilize his more aggressive man-coverage system.

Get better defense and I think you'll see the possession metrics for this squad change in a BIG way. Personally I think it's remarkable how well the Avs have done despite having a defense that is obviously full of stopgap measures. Guys like Benoit, Holden, Sarich, and Guenin were effectively taken off the scrap heap. That's the rather annoying thing about some people squawking "UNSUSTAINABLE" as if they think the Avs are just going to stick with the same D-corps for the next five seasons. They don't see there's an actual foundation in place.

Hell, there was a "foundation" with that 09-10 squad as well, but instead of building off of it, they decided to go in the wrong direction and turned the team into a slow, plodding dump-and-chase squad. I doubt you'll see that here. Roy obviously values speed and skill over brute force.
 

Huis Clos*

Guest
I like stats but not when they are used to cover up any logical question in an argument. The Corsi group still needs to explain how the Avs possession stats are supposed to be good when they don't play a possession type of game. Their possession stats are only usually good when losing to good teams, that seems counterintuitive. There needs to be a measure for scoring chances, which seems to be a better indicator. Also, I don't get who has even had a career year, is anyone going to argue Varly isn't this good of a goalie and it's a fluke.

Because Varly hasn't done it consistently.
 

TheStranger

Registered User
Jan 21, 2010
18,400
0
Ottawa, Ontario
The biggest issue I have with advanced stat geeks is that they completely dismiss the most important stat in hockey, wins. You don't need advanced stats to know if a team is good or not if you watch them. It feels like people who subscribe to advanced stats are more interested in statistical models than watching hockey games.

Secondly, saying the avalanche are lucky because they're having a bunch of career seasons is a bit ignorant without context.

25 year old defenceman
25 year old goalie
23 year old forward
23 year old forward
18 year old rookie

All of these players should be having good seasons. If guys like Stastny, McGinn, Parenteau, Tanguay, Mitchell etc. were having career years, I would be more concerned. But a bunch of young, high profile players?

These two are having career years.
 

TheFactor

Johnny Malkin
Mar 25, 2011
2,214
225
Calgary
The thing I hate the most about advanced stats is the arrogance of the crowd that advocates it. They just look at stats without putting it into context.
 

henchman21

Mr. Meeseeks
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Feb 24, 2012
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These two are having career years.

I wouldn't say McGinn is... He had 20g 17a 2 years ago, and was on a pace for a 19g 19a season last year. McGinn's ~20g ~20a seasons seems to be what should be expected out of him.
 

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